集合竞价阶段，上证指数高开，开盘报4134.89点，较前日收盘价4120.43点上涨约0.35%。热门板块中 GEO概念、AI营销、AIGC概念表现活跃，领涨股博瑞传播、易点天下、视觉中国分别录得10.05%、 13.87%、9.99%的涨幅，板块内个股涨势显著，短线资金对热点板块的参与意愿较强。 1月12日，沪深 京三市连板股开盘情况一览: ① 晋级：锋龙股份（11天11板，长安汽车概念、新能源汽车概念）涨停晋 级12连板、鲁信创投（11天9板，创投、代糖概念）涨停晋级12天10板、利欧股份（6天3板，ChatGPT 概念、多模态AI概念）涨停晋级7天4板、志特新材（5天5板，量子科技、人工智能概念）涨停晋级6连 板、快意电梯（5天5板）涨停晋级6连板、银河电子（5天5板，军工信息化、军民融合概念）涨停晋级6 连板、引力传媒（5天4板，小红书概念、快手概念）涨停晋级6天5板、东方明珠（3天3板，云游戏、网 络游戏概念）涨停晋级4连板、巨力索具（2天2板，商业航天、军工概念）涨停晋级3连板、杭萧钢构 （2天2板，建筑节能、装配式建筑概念）涨停晋级3连板、直真科技（2天2板，华为昇腾、卫星导航概 念）涨停晋级3 ...

Group 1 - Hainan Airlines experienced a temporary system failure that caused some flight ticket prices to display abnormally low rates, with prices as low as 70 yuan for a flight from Hangzhou to Shenzhen, equating to 0.4 of the original price [3] - The airline confirmed that all tickets sold during the incident remain valid and that the system has been restored to normal operations [3] Group 2 - Major banks in China have seen short-term large-denomination certificate of deposit (CD) rates drop below 1%, entering the "0" range, with rates for 1-month and 3-month CDs at 0.9% [5] - The decline in rates indicates a significant shift in the banking sector, aligning short-term CD rates closely with regular fixed-term deposit rates [5] Group 3 - The Supreme People's Court of China has clarified that funds given for purchasing cars or houses with the intent of marriage should be treated as bride price, impacting legal interpretations of such financial transactions [4] - This ruling may influence future disputes regarding financial gifts in the context of marriage, potentially leading to increased legal cases in this area [4] Group 4 - Apple is reportedly accelerating the selection process for a new CEO, with John Ternus, the current Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, emerging as a leading candidate [6] - The current CEO, Tim Cook, has expressed a desire to reduce his workload, indicating a potential transition in leadership within the company [6] Group 5 - Xiaomi has announced a price reduction for its Xiaomi 17 model and has eliminated the use of small print in its marketing materials, responding to criticism regarding transparency in advertising [8] - The company aims to enhance user experience by ensuring that key information is clearly presented [8] Group 6 - The number of corporate bankruptcies in Germany has reached a 20-year high, with 15,619 cases reported in 2025, reflecting ongoing structural pressures in the economy [20] - This trend indicates significant challenges for businesses in Germany, with a notable impact on employment as approximately 170,000 jobs were affected by these bankruptcies [20]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月8日，上海自贸区板块盘初走高，彤程新材涨停，宝信软件涨超9%，招商轮船涨超 8%，浦东建设涨超7%，中远海能、华勤技术、申达股份跟涨。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 假期外盘表现强势，但地缘政治扰动加剧 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2026-01-05 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 12月制造业PMI显著改善。2025年12月，中国制造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）为50.1%，较上月回升0.9个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数（非制造 | | 经济和企 | 中性 | 业PMI）为50.2%，较上月回升0.7个百分点。当月制造业景气回升，主要受两方面因素推动：一是12月工作日较去年同期增加1天（而10月、11月均较 | | 业盈利 | 偏多 | 去年同期减少1天），对生产活动产生正向影响；二是政策性金融工具效果逐步显现，带动基建、制造业投资等相关需求好转。从结构上看，生产、需 | | | | 求等主 ...

这高居涨幅榜的"牛股"有两大特点：或是AI概念股，或是并购概念股。其中，胜宏科技是全球AI PCB 龙头厂商，鼎泰高科是PCB钻针龙头，两者均受益于AI行情的驱动。 2025年的A股市场就将迎来收官，回首全年，A股市场产生了528只翻倍股，数量是2024年的4倍多。其 中，124只个股涨幅超2倍，6只个股超5倍。 区间涨幅最高的2只个股为上纬新材（688585.SH）和天普股份（605255.SH），是按收盘价计算年内唯 二的十倍股。高居涨幅榜的"牛股"呈现出两大特点：或是AI概念股，或是并购概念股。 要么AI、要么并购 Wind数据显示，从区间涨幅来看，2025年，在统计的5176只个股（扣除年内上市新股、退市及其他风 险警示股，下同）中，有4153只个股年内股价收涨，占比80%，而2024年这个比例仅为53%，牛市之 中，上市公司股价实现了普涨。 年内，528只个股年内涨幅超过1倍，翻倍股数量是去年（125只）的4倍多。其中，124只个股涨幅超2 倍，6只个股超5倍。 2025年区间涨幅最高的2只个股为上纬新材和天普股份，区间涨幅分别达到15.6倍和13.42倍，是按收盘 价计算年内唯二的十倍股。另外，胜 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，犍为县光畅再生资源经营部（个体工商户）成立，法定代表人为余德连，注册 资本1万人民币，经营范围为一般项目：再生资源销售；五金产品批发；五金产品零售；建筑材料销 售；日用百货销售；日用品批发；建筑装饰材料销售；建筑用金属配件销售；机械设备销售；普通机械 设备安装服务；建筑工程机械与设备租赁；金属材料销售；机械电气设备销售；劳动保护用品销售；劳 务服务（不含劳务派遣）；装卸搬运；电池销售；固体废物治理；生活垃圾处理装备销售；金属制品销 售。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）。 ...

围绕现代海洋经济。出台新一轮支持海洋经济高质量发展政策20条，增强海洋产业竞争力。安排2800万 元，支持海洋高能级平台建设，助力海洋领域关键核心技术攻关。争取中央资金3.7亿元，支持渔业产 业转型升级。 今年以来，青岛市财政局认真贯彻青岛市委、市政府工作部署，以更加积极的财政政策推动全市经济社 会高质量发展。其中，为激发消费潜力，争取中央资金40.5亿元、市级配套7.15亿元，支持汽车、家 电、手机等消费品以旧换新，发放1.8亿元住宿、餐饮、文娱等惠民消费券，让市民乐享实惠。 实施更加积极的财政政策，全力稳增长扩内需 对上争取扩大有效投资。抓好政策资金项目争取，争取上级转移支付资金270.1亿元，同口径增长8％； 争取新增一般债限额78亿元、增长36.8％，新增专项债限额677亿元、增长16.5％，支持307个重点项目 建设，项目总投资超5100亿元。 充分激发消费潜力。争取中央资金40.5亿元、市级配套7.15亿元，支持汽车、家电、手机等消费品以旧 换新，发放1.8亿元住宿、餐饮、文娱等惠民消费券，对个人消费贷款给予财政贴息，让市民乐享实 惠。入选国际化消费环境建设、消费新业态新模式新场景"双试点"城市， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall configuration idea in the fourth quarter remains largely unchanged, and the macro - environment is still favorable for risk assets. Investors are advised to make balanced allocations in major asset classes in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and consider increasing allocations if there are appropriate pullbacks [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The core drivers of major assets this week are the "anticipatory front - running" after the US government's restart and the strengthened expectation of looser liquidity. With the absence of key inflation and employment data, the market has shifted from data - dependence to assumption - dependence. Weak high - frequency private indicators have led to an increase in market expectations of interest rate cuts, limiting the US dollar's rebound and lowering US Treasury yields. The financial attributes of precious metals have been continuously strengthened. However, the impact of the expected difference after front - running should be警惕 [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, the economic data showed a weak and stable trend overall, and the boost of incremental policies to the fundamentals has not been reflected. Affected by factors such as the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade - in policy, weak funds in place, a phased decline in exports, and anti - involution expectations, the overall data in October continued to slow down slightly but still showed resilience. The 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments and the 500 billion yuan of local government's unused quota withdrawals implemented in October are expected to take effect as early as the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year in October, and the financial data generally met expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: The overall configuration idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. The macro - environment is favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to make balanced allocations in major asset classes in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and consider increasing allocations if there are pullbacks in the fourth quarter [7]. 3.2 Market Performance of Various Asset Classes - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4565.2, up 0.22% daily, - 0.77% weekly, - 1.43% monthly, - 1.14% quarterly, and up 16.43% this year; the SSE 50 futures closed at 3011, up 0.45% daily, - 0.64% weekly, - 0.14% monthly, 0.74% quarterly, and up 12.43% this year; the CSI 500 futures closed at 7054.8, down 0.35% daily, - 2.59% monthly, - 3.23% quarterly, and up 23.92% this year; the CSI 1000 futures closed at 7298.2, down 0.73% daily, - 1.00% weekly, - 0.95% monthly, - 1.46% quarterly, and up 24.74% this year [3]. - **Treasury Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury futures closed at 102,462, down 0.03% daily, 0.01% weekly, - 0.08% monthly, 0.09% quarterly, and down 0.50% this year; the 5 - year Treasury futures closed at 105.88, down 0.04% daily, 0.00% weekly, - 0.17% monthly, 0.24% quarterly, and down 0.62% this year; the 10 - year Treasury futures closed at 108.425, down 0.07% daily, - 0.23% monthly, 0.54% quarterly, and down 0.46% this year; the 30 - year Treasury futures closed at 116.09, down 0.38% daily, - 0.06% weekly, - 0.51% monthly, 1.92% quarterly, and down 2.314% this year [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 99.5932, unchanged daily, up 0.31% weekly, - 0.14% monthly, - 8.19% this year; the euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1581; the US dollar - yen exchange rate was 155.525, up 0.64% weekly, 0.98% monthly, 5.14% quarterly, - 1.07% this year; the central parity rate of the US dollar was 7.0872, up 16 pips daily, 47 pips weekly, - 8 pips monthly, - 183 pips quarterly, - 1012 pips this year [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.55, unchanged daily, up 8 bp weekly, 9 bp monthly, 10 bp quarterly, - 20 bp this year; the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 1.82, up 0.6 bp daily, 0.4 bp weekly, 2.3 bp monthly, - 4.3 bp quarterly, 0.1 bp this year; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.12, down 1 bp daily, - 2 bp weekly, 0.1 bp monthly, - 4 bp quarterly, - 43 bp this year; the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.54, up 1 bp daily, 0 bp weekly, - 0.02 bp monthly, - 2 bp quarterly, 21 bp this year [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: For example, COMEX gold was at 4067.4, up 0.55% daily, - 0.42% weekly, 1.35% monthly, 4.62% quarterly, and up 54.11% this year; NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 60.57, up 1.42% daily, 1.03% weekly, - 0.51% monthly, - 2.98% quarterly, - 11.72% this year [3]. - **Domestic Commodities**: For example, domestic gold was at 937, up 2.01% daily, - 1.70% weekly, 1.64% monthly, 7.16% quarterly, and up 51.72% this year; the Shanghai - Europe container shipping line was at 1640.1, down 2.26% daily, 2.19% weekly, 5.57% monthly, - 0.16% quarterly, - 27.33% this year [2][4]. 3.3 Sector - by - Sector Views - **Finance**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner; stock index options are expected to be volatile; Treasury futures are expected to be volatile [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [8]. - **Shipping**: The Shanghai - Europe container shipping line is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the rate of freight rate decline [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, coal, and building materials are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile, with some like aluminum and lithium carbonate expected to rise in a volatile manner, and nickel expected to fall in a volatile manner [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile, while oils and fats are expected to rise in a volatile manner, and some agricultural products like live pigs and sugar are expected to fall in a volatile manner [11]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show a differentiated trend, with some like natural rubber and cotton expected to be volatile, and some like live pigs and sugar expected to fall in a volatile manner [11].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Binzhou is a major city for the development of the private economy, with private enterprises accounting for 98.99% of the total business entities, contributing over 90% of the business quantity, over 80% of tax revenue, and nearly 70% of fixed asset investment. The city has implemented the "Heart-Safe Enterprises" initiative to promote the growth of the private economy by establishing standards that cover various aspects of enterprise management [1]. Group 1: Party Building and Thought Leadership - The city emphasizes the integration of party building with industrial development, creating a mechanism for collaboration between departments, industry associations, and key enterprises to enhance the effectiveness of party-led initiatives [2]. - The county-level initiatives, such as the "Red Alliance" in Huimin County, have been recognized as exemplary cases of innovation in enterprise party building [2]. - The focus on key industries like aluminum, chemicals, and textiles aims to strengthen the political and business capabilities of private enterprise leaders [2]. Group 2: Compliance and Risk Management - Binzhou has established a comprehensive compliance service platform, being the first in the province to issue guidelines for enterprise compliance, which includes free legal health checks for 333 companies [3]. - The city has developed a "cloud compliance classroom" to provide training on internal audits and legal management, reaching over 50,000 participants [3]. - Legal services have been extended to over 140 enterprises through on-site assistance and targeted compliance training sessions [4]. Group 3: Cultural Empowerment - A systematic approach to enterprise culture has been initiated, with a focus on integrating party building and corporate culture to enhance organizational cohesion and creativity [5]. - Various activities, including training sessions and cultural exchange events, have been organized to promote cultural development among private enterprises [5]. - The city has launched a campaign to collect and promote exemplary cases of corporate culture, enhancing the visibility of successful cultural initiatives [6]. Group 4: Psychological Support and Well-being - The establishment of a national-level psychological health service center for private enterprise employees aims to provide comprehensive mental health services, including individual consultations and group therapy [7]. - A professional team of psychologists has conducted numerous activities to support mental well-being, benefiting over 80,000 individuals [7]. - A digital platform has been created to offer psychological assessments and support, reaching over 115,000 participants through various online activities [7]. Group 5: Safety and Risk Prevention - The city has prioritized safety training for high-risk sectors, conducting specialized lectures and group activities to address psychological health needs [8]. - Safety awareness campaigns have been launched, providing practical guidance on mental health and safety practices to enterprises [8]. - A comprehensive policy push has been implemented to ensure the adherence to safety regulations across critical industries, with over 115,000 policy documents disseminated to support enterprises in maintaining operational stability [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant regulatory penalties imposed on major financial institutions due to inadequate risk management and compliance failures, emphasizing the need for enhanced risk monitoring systems and processes [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Penalties - On September 12, the National Financial Regulatory Administration disclosed administrative penalties totaling nearly 140 million yuan against three large financial institutions for issues related to loan management, investment operations, and regulatory data reporting [1]. - The penalties reflect a broader trend of failures in post-loan management, investment risk control, and system monitoring across the financial sector [1]. Group 2: Risk Management Challenges - Many financial institutions face common pain points, including reliance on manual checks that often overlook risk warnings, necessitating an upgrade in risk control practices [3]. - The difficulty in dynamically monitoring holdings leads to an underestimation of actual risks, and the time-consuming nature of report writing results in delayed risk reporting [4]. Group 3: AI-Driven Solutions - The article introduces AliceRisk, an AI-powered tool designed to enhance risk monitoring and reporting, enabling real-time oversight of portfolio risks [6][10]. - AliceRisk integrates with Wind's risk knowledge base, allowing for dynamic risk alerts, automated report generation, and traceability of various risk events [7][10]. Group 4: Risk Event Analysis - The analysis of risk events indicates a concentration of issues within specific companies, with notable instances of negative sentiment and high-risk ratings for certain entities, such as 汇添富基金管理股份有限公司 [15][20]. - The report highlights the need for ongoing monitoring of regional credit environments and potential impacts from litigation and refinancing activities [29][31].