涨涨 涨涨 硬件行业度过了艰难的 2025 年，毫无疑问也将度过一个艰难的 2026 年。 原本被广大游戏玩家期待的 RTX 60 系列显卡，传出了令人绝望的消息：发布时间大幅推迟到 2027 年末—— 据 The Information 最新披露，英伟达已决定将 2026 年的重心全面转向 AI 产品，RTX 60 系游戏卡彻底从「前 AI 时代」的财报香饽饽变成了路边一条。 ▲ 图｜Tom's Guide 更糟糕的是，这意味着在未来的两年里，显卡市场将陷入实质性的更新空白期。 老黄的资源天平不再倾斜、而是直接侧翻—— 但 DLSS 4.5 不是慈善行为，更何况一些老显卡用上 DLSS 4.5 之后还会有一定程度的帧率缩水。 硬件升级和产能同时撞墙，老黄就只能靠软件算法强行续命——名义上的「向后兼容」，怎么看怎么像是硬件停滞的遮羞布。 尤其是结合前一阵传出RTX 3060 将重新投产的消息，整个 DLSS 4 都变得仿佛「有预谋」起来： 当你发现五年前的显卡还能跑最新功能，别光顾着高兴。这说明硬件端已经停滞了，你却要为升级支付更高的价格。 而为了安抚大多数游戏玩家，英伟达倒是拿出了 DLSS 4 和 4.5 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang is planning a trip to China in late January to strengthen the company's position in the AI chip market [1][2][3] - The visit coincides with the US easing export restrictions on Nvidia's H200 model, while China is deliberating on import approvals for these chips [3][4] - The geopolitical landscape is tense, with US lawmakers expressing concerns over China's access to advanced AI technology [8][10] Group 1: Nvidia's Strategic Moves - Huang's trip is aimed at reopening a crucial market for Nvidia's AI chips, particularly as the company seeks to navigate changing export regulations [1][3] - The H200 chip, although a generation behind US offerings, is still considered superior to local Chinese alternatives, highlighting Nvidia's competitive edge [4] - The visit may include meetings with Chinese officials, which could impact Nvidia's market strategy in China [2][3] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The US has imposed a 25% tariff on certain advanced semiconductors shipped to China, reflecting ongoing trade tensions [7] - Additional licensing requirements for the H200 chip mandate that exporters ensure shipments do not create shortages in the US market [7] - Concerns from US lawmakers about the potential security risks of allowing China access to Nvidia's advanced chips are growing, with proposals for increased oversight on such sales [8][9] Group 3: Market Implications - The Chinese government is looking to bolster its domestic chip industry, which currently cannot match Nvidia's capabilities [4] - Despite restrictions, the potential for Nvidia to sell AI chips in China remains a contentious issue among US lawmakers, who fear it could enhance China's technological capabilities [8][10] - The outcome of Huang's trip and the evolving regulatory landscape will be critical for Nvidia's future market position in China [10]

Group 1: Outdoor Apparel Industry - The outdoor footwear and apparel industry has maintained rapid growth since 2021, with a CAGR of 25.3% for outdoor apparel and 18.4% for outdoor footwear, projected to grow by 24.5% and 16.3% respectively in 2025 [24][26] - Online sales of outdoor footwear are growing at over 40%, while growth in outdoor apparel has slowed to low single digits since Q2 2025; specific categories like down jackets and quick-dry clothing are experiencing strong growth, with some quarterly YoY growth nearing 100% [24][26] - The industry is seeing increased competition among brands, with top brands like Kailas and Berghaus maintaining high growth through specialized product lines, while others like The North Face are underperforming; pricing trends are weakening overall, but some high-demand brands are still able to increase prices [24][26] Group 2: AI Application in Computing Industry - Major international companies are focusing on AI application in vertical scenarios, with OpenAI launching ChatGPT Health and Amazon optimizing cross-border e-commerce operations through AI [28] - Domestic companies are also advancing in AI applications, with Alibaba upgrading health services and ByteDance's Volcano Engine becoming a key AI cloud partner for major events [28] - The market for AI applications is expected to see significant growth, with predictions indicating that the GEO market will reach $24 billion globally by 2026, driven by high consumer trust in AI applications in China [30][32] Group 3: Public Utilities Industry - The public utilities sector, including electricity, gas, and water, is characterized by its "essential" nature, with stable long-term growth prospects; the transition to low-carbon energy sources is expected to increase the share of clean energy consumption to 28.6% by 2024 [32][33] - The global electricity shortage is becoming more pronounced, leading to increased electricity prices and making the sector an attractive investment area, particularly as AI development accelerates [33]

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA has introduced DLSS 4.5 at CES 2026, enhancing gaming experiences by addressing key player concerns regarding image quality and frame rates through a "dual-core" strategy [1][3]. Group 1: Image Quality Enhancement - The first core focuses on image quality, utilizing an upgraded super-resolution technology based on the second-generation Transformer model [4][11]. - This new model boasts five times the computational power of the first generation and is trained on a significantly expanded high-fidelity dataset [12]. - The upgraded model directly processes in the game's native linear space, improving clarity and reducing artifacts like ghosting and flickering, especially in high-contrast scenes [17][19]. - Users of all GeForce RTX graphics cards can access the super-resolution feature through an NVIDIA App update, ensuring enhanced stability and clarity [21]. Group 2: Performance Improvement - The second core is dedicated to performance, specifically designed for the RTX 50 series, featuring dynamic multi-frame generation [6][23]. - DLSS 4.5 introduces a new six-fold multi-frame generation mode, allowing for the generation of up to five additional frames for each traditional rendered frame, significantly enhancing game smoothness [25]. - For instance, the game "Black Myth: Wukong" can now run at 240 fps, compared to its previous frame rate of under 190 fps [27]. - The dynamic multi-frame generation adapts to GPU performance and monitor refresh rates, optimizing frame rates while maintaining quality and responsiveness [30][33]. Group 3: Display Technology Advancement - NVIDIA has also unveiled G-SYNC Pulsar, a significant evolution of G-SYNC technology aimed at reducing motion blur in high-speed visuals [34]. - Demonstrations show that this technology can enhance the visual clarity of a 360Hz monitor to the equivalent of 1000Hz [35]. - Initial support for G-SYNC Pulsar has been rolled out by manufacturers such as ASUS, AOC, and MSI [36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry [1]. Core Insights - Major international companies are focusing on AI application deployment, with innovations in vertical scenarios such as healthcare and e-commerce. OpenAI's ChatGPT Health and Anthropic's Claude for Healthcare are examples of AI solutions targeting compliance and professional services in healthcare [2]. - Domestic companies are also advancing AI applications, with Alibaba's "Ant Aifu" upgrading health services and ByteDance's Volcano Engine becoming the exclusive AI cloud partner for the Spring Festival Gala. The stock prices of newly listed AI companies like Zhiyu and Minimax have surged significantly post-IPO [2]. Summary by Sections 01 International Companies' AI Application Deployment - OpenAI launched ChatGPT Health, which has received over 230 million health-related inquiries weekly, focusing on data integration and compliance [9]. - Anthropic introduced Claude for Healthcare, covering clinical services and personal health management while adhering to strict data security standards [14]. 02 Domestic Companies' AI Application Deployment - Alibaba's "Ant Aifu" aims to become the leading health app in China, integrating with major health devices and offering various health services [32]. - ByteDance's Volcano Engine is set to enhance the Spring Festival Gala experience through AI, marking its third collaboration with the event [37]. - Deepseek is expected to release its V4 flagship model, which promises significant advancements in AI capabilities [39]. 03 Industry Chain Overview - The report outlines various application directions and key companies in sectors such as healthcare, e-commerce, and gaming, highlighting potential investment opportunities [49].

Core Viewpoint - Huang Renxun emphasizes that robots are the "AI immigrants" capable of taking on jobs that humans are unwilling to do, highlighting the need for AI to support economic growth and job creation [10][11]. Group 1: AI and Robotics - Huang predicts that a significant number of jobs will not be replaced by AI in the near future, but blue-collar jobs in manufacturing may disappear [12]. - He expects to see robots with human-level mobility and dexterity by the end of this year [12]. - The development of robots requires not only visual perception but also tactile capabilities, which poses significant technical challenges [13]. Group 2: Autonomous Driving - Huang introduced the world's first open-source, large-scale autonomous driving visual-language-action (VLA) reasoning model, Alpamayo 1, and highlighted its differences from Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology [15][16]. - NVIDIA positions itself as a technology platform provider for companies developing autonomous vehicles, rather than a manufacturer of autonomous cars [16][20]. - The company has a high industry penetration rate, with over 1 billion vehicles on the road, and anticipates that millions will have strong autonomous driving capabilities in the next decade [20]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure and Memory Supply - Huang describes AI infrastructure as "AI factories," emphasizing the need for unprecedented infrastructure to convert power, chips, and data into intelligent outputs [35]. - He addresses the tight supply of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and proposes a new storage memory platform concept, asserting that NVIDIA is a key demand engine across various memory types [36]. - NVIDIA is the first and nearly the only major user of HBM4, collaborating closely with memory suppliers to ensure synchronized production and platform release [36]. Group 4: Gaming and Graphics Technology - NVIDIA upgraded its super-resolution model with the new DLSS 4.5 version, enhancing multi-frame generation capabilities [31]. - Huang speculates that future rendering methods will likely involve executing more AI computations on fewer but higher-quality pixels, leading to significant advancements in gaming realism [32]. - He believes that future video games will be filled with AI-driven characters, greatly enhancing the immersive experience [32][33]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Product Strategy - NVIDIA is considering restarting the production of older graphics cards due to rising memory costs and supply constraints, indicating that this option is not off the table [25][26]. - The company is exploring the possibility of integrating the latest AI technologies into previous generations of GPU products, although this would require substantial R&D resources [26][27].

Core Insights - Huang Renxun emphasized that robots are akin to AI immigrants, capable of taking on jobs that humans are reluctant to perform [1][5] - The company is considering restarting old production lines for GPUs, such as the RTX 3060, to incorporate new technologies due to current supply chain challenges [1][14][15] Group 1: AI and Robotics - The core theme of Huang's presentation at CES 2026 revolved around physical AI, including robotics and autonomous driving [5] - Huang stated that the "robot revolution" will drive economic growth, creating more jobs and absorbing more labor, while maintaining low inflation levels is crucial for a healthy economy [5] - He predicted that by the end of this year, robots will achieve human-level capabilities in mobility, joint movement, and fine motor skills [5] Group 2: Autonomous Driving - Huang introduced the world's first open-source, large-scale autonomous driving visual-language-action (VLA) inference model, named Alpamayo 1 [7] - The key distinction between Alpamayo and Tesla's FSD is that NVIDIA does not manufacture autonomous vehicles but provides a complete technology stack for companies developing them [9][11] - NVIDIA's systems have high industry penetration, with over 1 billion vehicles on the road today, and millions expected to have autonomous capabilities in the next decade [10] Group 3: GPU and Memory Challenges - NVIDIA did not release consumer-grade gaming graphics cards at CES 2026, citing rising memory costs and supply constraints as significant challenges [14][19] - Huang acknowledged the possibility of reviving production of older graphics cards to meet market demand, although this would require substantial R&D resources [15][16] - The company is positioned as a major buyer of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and is collaborating closely with suppliers to ensure production aligns with product launches [22] Group 4: Future of Gaming - Huang discussed the future of gaming, suggesting that AI will play a significant role in character development and game realism, with advancements in rendering technology expected [19][20] - He believes that the gaming industry is entering an exceptional era, driven by AI innovations [20] Group 5: Leadership and Vision - Huang humorously shared two secrets for longevity as a CEO: not getting fired and avoiding boredom, while also acknowledging the significant responsibilities of leading NVIDIA [23]

Core Viewpoint - Huang Renxun emphasizes that robots are the "AI immigrants" capable of taking on jobs that humans are unwilling to do, highlighting the need for AI to support economic growth and job creation [10][11]. Group 1: AI and Robotics - Huang states that the "robot revolution" will drive economic progress and create more job opportunities while maintaining low inflation levels [11]. - He predicts that by the end of this year, robots will achieve human-level capabilities in mobility, joint movement, and fine motor skills [12]. - The development of robots requires not only visual perception but also tactile capabilities, which poses significant technical challenges [13]. Group 2: Autonomous Driving - Huang introduced the world's first open-source, large-scale autonomous driving visual-language-action (VLA) reasoning model, Alpamayo 1, and praised Tesla's FSD technology as world-class [15][16]. - NVIDIA's role is to provide a complete technology stack for companies developing autonomous vehicles, rather than manufacturing the vehicles themselves [16][20]. - The company has a high industry penetration rate, with over 1 billion vehicles on the road, and expects that millions will have strong autonomous driving capabilities in the next decade [20]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure and Memory Supply - Huang introduced NVIDIA's next-generation AI supercomputing platform, Vera Rubin, and discussed the challenges posed by rising memory prices and supply constraints [24][25]. - The company is positioned as a key player in the memory market, addressing the growing demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and collaborating closely with suppliers to ensure production capacity aligns with product launches [36]. Group 4: Gaming and AI - NVIDIA upgraded its super-resolution model with the new DLSS 4.5 version, indicating a shift towards AI-driven gaming experiences [31]. - Huang predicts that future video games will be filled with AI characters, significantly enhancing realism and interactivity [32][33].

Core Insights - The CES 2026 showcased a shift in focus among semiconductor companies towards AI, with hardware innovations taking a backseat to AI advancements [1][26]. Nvidia - Nvidia's RTX 50 Super series was notably absent from CES 2026, disappointing gamers who had anticipated its release [2]. - The company introduced DLSS 4.5, enhancing frame generation capabilities from 4 to 6 frames, providing a 50% performance boost for RTX 50 series users [2][4]. - The Vera Rubin platform was highlighted as a significant advancement, featuring a CPU with 88 cores and a GPU with 336 billion transistors, achieving a 5x increase in FP4 inference performance [6][4]. - The platform aims to reduce AI inference costs by 90%, making AI applications more accessible [6][4]. Qualcomm - Qualcomm launched the Snapdragon X2 Plus, designed for mid-range markets, featuring a 43% reduction in power consumption and a 35% increase in single-core performance [7][9]. - The Dragonwing IQ10, a new high-performance processor for robotics, was introduced, boasting a 30% improvement in energy efficiency compared to competitors [11][12]. Intel - Intel unveiled the third-generation Core Ultra processors, utilizing the new Intel 18A process technology, which offers a 15% performance increase per watt and a 30% increase in chip density [13][16]. - The new processors demonstrate a 60% performance boost over the previous generation and significantly lower power consumption during 4K video playback [16][20]. - Intel's advancements in AI capabilities allow for the deployment of large AI models directly on devices, enhancing its competitive position in the AI PC market [20][21]. AMD - AMD introduced the Ryzen AI 400 series, featuring seven new processors with AI capabilities up to 60 TOPS, targeting lightweight AI PCs [21][23]. - The Ryzen AI Max+ series was updated to include more GPU cores, enhancing performance for portable AI applications [23][24]. - The Ryzen 7 9850X3D was launched as a gaming-focused processor, offering a balance of performance and efficiency, outperforming competitors in gaming benchmarks [24][25]. Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is increasingly prioritizing AI capabilities, with a focus on making computing power more efficient and cost-effective [26]. - The CES 2026 highlighted a clear direction towards high-efficiency, long-lasting AI PCs, indicating a significant shift in the PC ecosystem [26].

Core Insights - Nvidia is reshaping the gaming rendering process and interaction experience through continuous AI technology iterations without launching new graphics cards [1] - The focus of Nvidia's updates at CES this year was on software, particularly the release of DLSS 4.5 and advancements in NPC technology [1] Group 1: DLSS 4.5 Technology - The key highlight of the release is the update to DLSS (Deep Learning Super Sampling) technology, introducing "Dynamic Multi Frame Generation" and a new 6x multi-frame generation mode [2] - DLSS 4.5 utilizes a second-generation Transformer model to generate up to five additional frames for every traditional frame rendered, significantly increasing the pixel output compared to traditional rasterization or ray tracing [2] - DLSS 4.5 is expected to launch in spring 2024 and will be compatible with all RTX series graphics cards, with optimal performance on the latest RTX 40 and 50 series [4] - When combined with the GeForce RTX 50 series, DLSS 4.5 can achieve over 240 frames per second in 4K gaming with full path tracing enabled [4] - Over 250 games and applications currently support DLSS 4 technology, including new titles like "007: The Beginning" and "Resident Evil: The Resurrection" [4] Group 2: NPC Technology Advancements - Nvidia is enhancing game interaction logic through generative AI, expanding the ACE (Avatar Cloud Engine) technology suite to create autonomous NPCs with perception, planning, and action capabilities [5] - In collaboration with KRAFTON, Nvidia demonstrated an AI teammate in "PUBG" that can remember past player interactions and provide contextually relevant dialogue, with plans for limited testing in mid-2024 [5] - The AI advisor in the strategy game "Total War: Pharaoh" showcases enhanced logical capabilities, offering real-time tactical guidance based on the game's current situation [5] - Nvidia's architecture for NPC memory does not solely rely on cloud models but uses a local vector database to store player behavior and dialogue history, significantly reducing cloud inference costs and addressing privacy concerns [6] Group 3: Cloud Gaming and AI Acceleration - Nvidia's cloud gaming service GeForce NOW announced performance equivalent to RTX 5080 graphics cards and added native support for Linux systems and Amazon Fire TV Stick [8] - For content creators, Nvidia introduced AI acceleration solutions based on RTX GPUs, achieving up to a 3x performance improvement in video and image generation while reducing memory usage by 60% [8] - Nvidia also enhanced the inference speed of small language models like Llama.cpp by 35% and specifically optimized the domestic open-source model DeepSeek-R1 for high inference throughput on RTX graphics cards [8]