2026年注定是全球市场的"分化与颠覆之年"： 一边是中国股市慢牛雏形显现、日本经济逆袭崛起的确定性机遇，一边是美股暴跌90%与全球金融危机 的崩盘预警； AI既引爆算力革命与万亿独角兽风口，也引发"铜电荒"与失业潮隐忧。 贵金属、加密货币酝酿史诗级反弹，科技巨头争夺市值王座，多空阵营针锋相对，机遇与风险的边界从 未如此模糊。 本文整理了市场对2026年全球主要资产的十大重磅预测，带你直击未来的关键博弈与未来走向。 他强调，本轮泡沫覆盖股票、房地产及数字资产等多个领域，根源是2008年后决策者通过货币干预阻碍 经济自然重置，债务问题未彻底出清，激进赤字支出进一步放大泡沫。Harry特别指出，2026年初尤其 是1月为关键判断期，历史上1月首周及首月股市表现常预示全年走势，若1月表现疲弱，将印证其看空 判断。 三、华尔街"预言家"喊出黄金1万美元、白银200美元 高盛多次重申A股、H股超配评级，指出当前慢牛格局更稳固，内外资持续涌入，大量存量资金尚未入 市提供动力，尤其看好中小盘及民企龙头、人工智能等投资主题。 二、美股惊天大分化：标普500直冲8100点or暴跌90%？ 华尔街对2026年美股走势呈现空前极端 ...

消息面上，Meta正与谷歌就2027年在其数据中心使用价值数十亿美元TPU芯片进行谈判，同时计划明年 从谷歌云租用芯片。这一事件标志着谷歌TPU从自用走向外供，其生态正式开放；且可能让谷歌抢占英 伟达年收入的10%份额，为其带来数十亿美元的新增收入。 数日前，谷歌发布Gemini3模型，Gemini3 Pro刷新了几乎所有榜单，是目前综合实力最强，且数学推 理、视频生成、代码等单项能力大幅领先的大模型。此外，Nano Banana Pro 是 Google 推出的由 Gemini 3 驱动的升级版图像生成模型。它具有 4K 分辨率输出，从生成效果上看，目前几乎已经以假乱真。 AI需求方面，中金公司指出，AI应用已经带来了明显的成本节省。麦肯锡调查表示，受访者认为使用 AI可减少9-11%的成本，并涉及到了广泛的行业。另一方面，AI技术的发展对部分劳动者的就业产生了 冲击，调查显示更多受访者认为AI将会加剧企业职能人员的减少。 消息面，Meta正与谷歌就2027年在其数据中心使用价值数十亿美元TPU芯片进行谈判，同时计划明年从 谷歌云租用芯片。光模块占比超50%的通信ETF（515880）开盘拉升近3%，资金持 ...

Group 1: Meta and Google Collaboration - Meta is negotiating with Google to use TPU chips worth billions of dollars in its data centers by 2027 and plans to rent chips from Google Cloud next year, marking a shift of Google's TPU from in-house use to external supply [1] - This collaboration could allow Google to capture 10% of NVIDIA's annual revenue, potentially generating billions in new income for Google [1] Group 2: Google's AI Advancements - Google recently launched the Gemini 3 model, which has set new benchmarks in various categories, showcasing superior capabilities in mathematical reasoning, video generation, and coding [1] - The Nano Banana Pro, an upgraded image generation model powered by Gemini 3, offers 4K resolution output and produces highly realistic images [1] Group 3: Alibaba's Cloud Business Performance - Alibaba's cloud business exceeded expectations with a 34% year-on-year revenue growth, and AI-related product revenue has seen triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [2] - Alibaba has invested approximately 120 billion yuan in AI and cloud infrastructure over the past four quarters and plans to continue investing aggressively in AI capabilities [2] Group 4: AI Demand and Market Trends - AI applications are reported to have led to significant cost savings, with McKinsey's survey indicating that AI could reduce costs by 9% to 11% across various industries [2] - The rapid development of AI technology is expected to impact employment, with more respondents believing that AI will exacerbate reductions in corporate staff [2] Group 5: AI Industry Outlook - The AI industry is progressing rapidly, with significant investments marking a pivotal moment in technology history, and the lifecycle of AI may be longer than previous technological revolutions [6] - The demand for computing power is expected to continue improving the hardware market, with optimism about the software sector as well [6] - The rapid adoption of AI technology is outpacing that of personal computers and the internet, leading to a positive outlook for the industry [6]

Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the total trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen reaching 1.78 trillion, a decrease of 28.8 billion from the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14% [1] - The Communication ETF showed strong performance, peaking at nearly 8% during the day and closing up by 5.61%, while the AI ETF on ChiNext rose by 4.89% [1] Factors Driving Market Upward - Increased expectations for interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve in December rising from approximately 40% to 80% following comments from several Fed officials [2] - Google's recent launch of the Gemini 3 model, which has outperformed competitors in various benchmarks, contributing to positive sentiment in the AI sector [2][4] AI Model Performance - The Gemini 3 Pro model has shown superior performance across multiple benchmarks, achieving 95.0% in mathematics without tools and 100% with code execution, indicating its advanced capabilities compared to other models [3] - The model also excelled in scientific knowledge, achieving 91.9%, and demonstrated strong performance in visual reasoning and multimodal understanding [3] Hardware Developments - Google’s TPU v7 has exceeded expectations in terms of memory capacity and energy efficiency, potentially impacting the competitive landscape for AI hardware [5] - There are reports that Meta Platforms is considering a significant investment in Google’s TPU for its data center needs, indicating a shift in the competitive dynamics of the AI hardware market [5] Future Market Outlook - There is a gradual improvement in risk appetite as pessimistic expectations are being digested, with the potential for continued recovery in the U.S. stock market [7] - Despite potential changes in the chip landscape due to Google's growth, A-share related component manufacturers are expected to benefit regardless of which company leads in chip competition [7] - The AI industry is anticipated to continue its rapid growth, with increasing demand for computational power, which may positively impact hardware and software sectors [9]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.02% [1] - The overall trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.7972 trillion yuan, a decrease of 29 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Technology sectors showed strong performance, particularly in communications, artificial intelligence, and consumer electronics, while military, oil, and gaming sectors lagged [1] Investment Sentiment - The risk appetite in the market is currently neutral, with over 3,500 stocks declining [1] - The market is stabilizing after a decline last week, with H-shares showing a higher recovery [2] - The expansion of excess liquidity and sustained investor optimism are seen as key drivers for the ongoing bull market [2] AI and Technology Sector - Google is entering competition with Nvidia by negotiating with Meta for the use of TPU chips, potentially capturing 10% of Nvidia's annual revenue [3] - Alibaba's cloud business exceeded expectations with a 34% year-on-year revenue growth, and AI-related products have seen triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [4] - The demand for AI applications is leading to significant cost savings across various industries, with estimates suggesting a reduction of 9-11% in costs [4] Economic Indicators - Recent comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials indicate a rising expectation for interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in December increasing from 40% to 80% [6] - The bond market is showing weakness despite favorable conditions, with the 30-year treasury yield rising by 2.2 basis points [9] Geopolitical Developments - U.S. President Trump is advancing a new peace plan for Ukraine, with ongoing negotiations and potential concessions from Russia [8] - The geopolitical landscape continues to influence market dynamics, particularly in safe-haven assets like gold, which has recently surpassed $4,100 per ounce [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the performance of major overseas companies, such as Nvidia and Google's Gemini3 model, confirms the high prosperity of computing power [5] - The electronic industry index has seen a decline of 5.66% this week, with specific sectors like consumer electronics and semiconductors dropping by 5.98% and 5.80% respectively [3][4] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of domestic chip launches and new product iterations, with a prediction that the smart glasses market will reach a significant turning point by 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The US stock market has experienced significant volatility due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting the domestic electronic sector [3] - Nvidia's third-quarter revenue reached $57.01 billion, with data center revenue contributing $51.2 billion, indicating strong performance despite market fluctuations [4] Industry Updates - The report notes that Samsung has increased the prices of certain memory chips by 60% compared to September, reflecting rising storage costs [4] - The launch of the "Qianwen" app by Alibaba and the upcoming release of Huawei's Mate80 are significant developments in the terminal market [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on technology sector stocks that have undergone significant adjustments and have potential catalysts, including companies like SMIC, Huahong Semiconductor, and Cambrian [5]