证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 25Q2 归母净利同比+37%，盈利能力持续提升 [Table_Title2] 海信视像(600060) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 600060 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 25.88/14.34 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 285.40 | | 最新收盘价： | 21.87 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 283.24 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 1,295.09 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 分析判断: ► 电视销售额规模稳定增长，产品结构同步优化升级。 1）智能终端显示业务：公司持续推进全球化发展战略，推动产品向大屏化、高端化、智能化方向发展，据奥维 睿沃，25H1，海信系电视全球出货量市占率达 14.38%，同比+0.57 pct；据奥维云网数据，25H1，海信系中国 内地零售额市占率为 29.96%，零售量 ...

2025 年 08 月 26 日 海信视像(600060.SH) 产品结构持续优化，Q2 业绩延续快速 增长 事件：海信视像公布 2025 年半年度公告。公司 2025H1 实现收 入 272.3 亿元，YoY+7.0%；实现归母净利润 10.6 亿元，YoY+26.6%。 经折算，Q2 单季度实现收入 138.6 亿元，YoY+8.6%；实现归母净 利润 5.0 亿元，YoY+36.7%。展望后续，随着公司产品结构不断优 化，新显示业务快速增长，公司盈利能力有望持续提升。 Q2 整体收入增长稳健：国内市场方面，以旧换新政策刺激电视 行业更新需求。公司作为国内电视行业龙头企业，凭借丰富的产 品矩阵和多元化的渠道体系更受益于政策刺激。根据奥维云网数 据，2025Q2 海信+Vidda 国内电视零售额 YoY+24%。根据公司公告， 上半年国内全渠道 Mini LED 电视市场中海信系的零售量市占率 同比+8.4pct。我们判断，Q2 公司内销电视业务收入实现较快增 长。海外方面，受美国关税政策以及公司在美国渠道结构调整的 影响，我们判断 Q2 公司外销电视业务小幅承压。展望后续，公司 积极携手世俱杯、NBA 等 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Home Appliances and Robotics Home Appliances Industry - The domestic home appliance subsidy policy shows diminishing marginal effects, with a slowdown in growth expected post-2026, even with subsidies reaching 1 trillion [1][4] - The U.S. interest rate cuts are expected to boost real estate demand, positively impacting home appliance and furniture categories, benefiting Chinese companies like Haier [1][5] - Chinese brands are gaining recognition in emerging markets, leading to increased market share [1][5] - The television segment is dominated by Chinese brands, leveraging large screen and Mini LED technologies to surpass Japanese and Korean brands [1][6] - Asian brands have a supply chain advantage, with China and Taiwan supplying over 90% of global panels, allowing for competitive pricing against brands like Samsung and LG [1][7][8] - The white goods sector shows divergent trends between self-owned brands and OEM businesses, with Haier focusing on overseas expansion and Midea emphasizing the increase of self-owned brand share [1][10] Motorcycle Industry - The Chinese motorcycle industry is experiencing a second wave of international expansion, with improved product quality and significant potential in large-displacement motorcycles in Europe and Latin America [1][9] - Spring Wind Power leads in the European four-wheeled vehicle sector and is expanding into two-wheeled vehicles [1][9] Robotics Industry - The domestic competitive landscape for robotic vacuum cleaners is improving, with companies like Trifo adjusting pricing strategies to optimize market share [2][11] - New product iterations, such as the active water roller brush vacuum cleaners from companies like Ecovacs, are driving innovation and growth in overseas markets [2][11][12] - The active water roller brush products have high gross margins, estimated at 50% to 60% for Ecovacs [2][13] - Stone Technology is expected to reach a performance turning point in Q3 2025, focusing on profit margin control and marketing expenses [2][14] Future Outlook - The home appliance industry is expected to focus on overseas markets, particularly in the U.S. and emerging countries, as domestic growth slows [1][3] - The television sector is anticipated to continue leading global development, with Chinese brands maintaining a strong competitive edge [1][6][8] - The motorcycle sector's potential for large-displacement models is significant, with a global demand of approximately 5 million units [1][9] - The robotic vacuum cleaner market is entering a new product iteration cycle, with expectations for rapid market share capture in overseas markets [2][12][15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic policies and strategic planning of the Chinese government, particularly focusing on the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, which impact various industries including real estate, technology, and consumer sectors. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth and Policy Stability** The political bureau meeting emphasized the dual focus on stable growth and high-quality development, aiming for a GDP growth target of around 5% for the year, with the first half achieving a growth rate of 5.3% [2][6][22]. 2. **Fiscal and Monetary Policy Adjustments** - Fiscal policy will accelerate government bond issuance and improve fund utilization efficiency, with a projected fiscal gap of 300 to 500 billion [13][31]. - Monetary policy remains flexible, with potential for interest rate cuts in the latter half of the year, depending on economic pressures [14][32]. 3. **Reform Focus Areas** Key reforms include promoting technological innovation, regulating competition, and advancing green transformation. The government aims to integrate technology and industry innovation deeply [7][8][43]. 4. **Real Estate and Urban Renewal** The meeting highlighted the importance of high-quality urban renewal and maintaining a stable real estate market, with a focus on improving existing urban areas rather than expanding [10][39][41]. 5. **Consumer Market Dynamics** Consumer retail sales grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by policies encouraging consumption. The government plans to continue supporting both goods and service consumption [16][35]. 6. **Emerging Industries and Technological Innovation** The government is prioritizing emerging industries such as high-end chips, AI, and biotechnology, aiming to increase their contribution to GDP from 11% to 17% [20][25][56]. 7. **Risk Areas** The main risks identified include real estate, local government debt, and capital market stability. The government is taking measures to mitigate these risks, including prohibiting new hidden debts [21][28]. 8. **Investment Opportunities** - The conference identified potential investment opportunities in sectors like water conservancy, technology innovation, and consumer electronics, particularly in companies that can adapt to new market conditions [24][25][36]. - Specific recommendations include companies in the AI sector and those involved in urban renewal projects [49][62]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Impact of Global Changes** The meeting acknowledged the significant global changes affecting China's economy, including trade tensions and technological competition, which necessitate adaptive policies [3][4]. 2. **Long-term Vision for Technology** The focus on technology is not just about self-sufficiency but also about enhancing global competitiveness and market share [44][45]. 3. **Consumer Electronics and AI Hardware** The consumer electronics sector is expected to innovate significantly, with AI technology driving new product developments [59][60]. 4. **Sustainability and Green Initiatives** The emphasis on green transformation indicates a long-term commitment to sustainable development across various sectors [8][12]. 5. **Market Mechanisms and Competition** The meeting discussed the need for market mechanisms to replace blanket subsidies, promoting healthy competition and resource allocation [47][48]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and future directions for various industries in China.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The home appliance industry is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with leading companies benefiting from significant economies of scale and having substantial growth potential in overseas markets, indicating long-term investment value, particularly in cash returns [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - The white goods sector showed weak performance in the first half of the year due to tariffs and the diminishing effects of the old-for-new policy, while the air conditioning segment performed relatively well [1][4] - The black goods sector benefited from Mini LED technology upgrades and a more favorable competitive landscape, leading to increased profit elasticity [1][4] - Investment strategies for the second half of the year should focus on high dividend yields and high ROE, with leading companies like Midea, Haier, and Gree offering dividend yields of approximately 4%, 7-8%, and 5% respectively, providing valuation support [1][6] - The competitive landscape in the white goods sector is concentrated on models priced below 2,700 yuan, with Midea initiating a price war against Xiaomi, which is adopting a defensive strategy to increase market share in the 4,000-4,500 yuan price range [1][7] - Export chain companies need to be aware of the expected differences in overseas tariffs, with Southeast Asia's production capacity performing better than expected and China's production capacity recovering well [1][10] Additional Important Insights - The competition in the black goods sector has improved, with Chinese panel manufacturers reducing costs through technology upgrades, allowing companies like Hisense and TCL to capture market share overseas [1][14] - The white goods sector's competition is expected to remain intense, particularly in the low-end market, while leading companies are leveraging brand extension and high-end product profits to mitigate impacts from low-end market pressures [1][7] - The national subsidy policy is expected to continue in the second half of 2025, but its marginal effects may weaken, particularly in certain regions where specific products may not qualify for subsidies [1][8] - The Mini LED television market is experiencing increased penetration due to declining electronic module costs and government subsidy policies narrowing the price gap between high-end and low-end products [1][18] - New consumer trends in the home appliance industry are emerging, focusing on low penetration, high explosive growth, and high scarcity, with brands like Beiding showing significant growth in the small appliance segment [1][20] - The robotic vacuum cleaner sector is currently in a phase of improving competitive dynamics, with companies like Ecovacs and Roborock showing promising profit trends [1][21] - Future investment strategies in the home appliance industry should prioritize robust assets, improving competitive landscapes, and new consumer trends, particularly in high-dividend white goods, black goods, and innovative small appliance brands [1][22]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The black electronics (黑电) industry is experiencing a significant transformation, particularly with the accelerated penetration of Mini LED technology, which is improving profit margins in the sector, especially under national subsidies [2][4][6] - Domestic brands are gaining market share in the high-end segment, with Hisense and TCL significantly increasing their combined market share, while Korean brands' share has dropped below 50% for the first time [3][11] Key Points on Hisense - Hisense's gross and net profit margins for Mini LED products are substantially higher than those for traditional LCD TVs, leading to a notable improvement in domestic profitability [2][4] - The company is expected to benefit from the strong competitive landscape in the second half of the year, supported by national subsidies and the new Mini LED technology [2][8] - Hisense's market share in the high-end TV segment is rapidly approaching that of Samsung, with a reported share of 20% compared to Samsung's 28% [4][11] Market Performance and Trends - The black electronics market in China saw a significant sales increase in the first half of 2025, with a sales growth of nearly 8% despite a limited volume increase of only 2% [6][7] - The penetration rate of Mini LED technology reached 25% in Q1 and increased to 33% in Q2, indicating strong consumer preference for new technology rather than price reductions [7][8] - The average selling price (ASP) of TVs has increased by over 10% in Q2, contributing to a nearly 20% growth in domestic revenue for Hisense [7] Competitive Landscape - The competitive dynamics are shifting, with Xiaomi focusing on profit preservation, allowing brands like Hisense and TCL to leverage their technological advantages [8] - The profitability of Korean leaders Samsung and LG is deteriorating, which presents an opportunity for domestic brands to enhance their global market share and profit margins [2][4][5] Future Outlook - The black electronics industry is expected to maintain strong profitability in the second half of 2025, driven by continued Mini LED penetration, improved competitive dynamics, and stable panel prices [8] - The long-term outlook for domestic brands is positive, with expectations of surpassing Korean competitors in the global market, supported by a significant share of the LCD panel supply chain [12] Additional Insights - The shift in production capacity to countries like Vietnam and Mexico has mitigated the negative impacts of tariffs, allowing companies like Hisense and TCL to maintain stable growth in overseas markets [9][10] - The overall demand in the European market remains strong, and the North American market is showing stable terminal demand, which will support the growth of domestic brands [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to Hisense Visual [5] Core Viewpoints - Hisense Visual is positioned as a leading player in the global television market, with a revenue forecast of 58.53 billion in 2024, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% from 2018 to 2024 [1][22] - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of Mini LED technology, with a projected penetration rate of over 18% in China by 2024, up more than 15 percentage points year-on-year [1][31] - Hisense Visual's overseas revenue is anticipated to reach 52% by 2024, reflecting its successful expansion into international markets [1][23] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hisense Visual is a leading player in China's television industry, primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of display-related products, with a focus on televisions, laser displays, and display chips [13][14] - The company operates under three brands: Hisense, Toshiba, and Vidda, targeting different consumer segments and steadily increasing its market share [2][13] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow to 63.74 billion in 2025, with a net profit of 2.59 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 15.4% [3][4] - Hisense Visual's net profit has shown a compound growth rate of 33.7% from 2018 to 2024, indicating strong profitability recovery after previous downturns [22][23] Market Dynamics - The global television market is stabilizing, with a shift towards larger screens and advanced technologies like Mini LED, which is expected to drive up average selling prices [1][32] - The market share of the top four global television brands is projected to increase from 44.5% in 2018 to 56.2% in 2024, indicating a more concentrated industry landscape [1][32] Competitive Advantages - Hisense Visual has a strong technological foundation, having invested over 10 years in ULED technology and leading advancements in Mini LED and AI technologies [2][31] - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain, including upstream chip production, which enhances its competitive edge in the market [2][31] Future Outlook - The company is expected to capture a larger share of the global television market, with new growth opportunities arising from its investments in laser displays, commercial displays, and XR technologies [3][22] - The stock is valued between 24.89 and 29.63 per share, with a market capitalization range of 325 to 387 billion, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [3][5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the black television (TV) industry, particularly the domestic and global market dynamics and trends in high-end TV products [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Growth**: The domestic TV market is expected to see a significant boost in sales due to government subsidies, with Q4 2024 sales volume increasing by 6% and sales revenue rising by 28% [1][2]. - **High-End Product Demand**: The trend towards larger screen sizes is accelerating, with 70-inch and above products accounting for 37% and 53% of online and offline sales, respectively, in 2024 [1][3]. - **Mini LED Technology**: Mini LED technology is experiencing explosive growth, with penetration rates reaching 31% in late 2024 and expected to become a standard feature in mid-to-high-end TVs [1][5]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: Domestic brands dominate the market, with leading companies capturing 86% and 75% of online and offline sales, respectively, while foreign brands continue to lose market share [1][6]. - **Global Competition**: In the global high-end TV market, Samsung and LG's combined market share has decreased to around 40%, while Chinese brands like Hisense and TCL have increased their share to 39% [1][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Price Trends**: The average price of TVs is increasing due to structural upgrades, with domestic TV prices growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2019 to 2024, despite a decline in sales volume [2][3]. - **Future Projections**: By 2025, Mini OLED TVs are expected to surpass Mini LED TVs in sales, with a projected CAGR of over 30% from 2025 to 2028, reaching a sales volume of 35 million units [3][16]. - **Competitive Strategies**: Chinese manufacturers are leveraging technology and marketing strategies, such as sports sponsorships, to enhance brand image and market penetration, particularly in overseas markets [9][15]. - **Impact of Panel Localization**: The localization of panel production has strengthened the supply chain for domestic TV manufacturers, allowing for better cost management and higher profit margins [12][13]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Leading companies like Hisense and TCL are currently valued at relatively low levels, presenting attractive investment opportunities as they strengthen their high-end product offerings [17].

Summary of the Conference Call for Tanshan Technology Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on Tanshan Technology's chip business, which generated approximately 222 million yuan in revenue for 2024, accounting for less than 20% of total revenue, but contributed about 30% to the net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating strong profitability in the chip sector [2][6][23]. Key Points and Arguments - **Chip Business Expansion**: Tanshan Technology plans to pursue external mergers and acquisitions in the chip sector through a "stock plus cash" approach, aiming to acquire its fourth and fifth targets, demonstrating a commitment to expanding its chip business [2][7][23]. - **Collaboration with G2Touch**: The company is collaborating with G2Touch on OLED automotive touch ICs, with a significant milestone expected in July 2025 when the product will be mass-produced for Ferrari models, marking a key advancement in the automotive touch sector [2][10][12]. - **Market Potential in New Energy Vehicles**: Tanshan Technology is optimistic about the multi-screen trend in new energy vehicles, predicting substantial demand for screens in the Chinese market, which could provide extensive growth opportunities for its automotive touch IC business [2][11][12]. - **Strategic Partnerships**: The company is actively collaborating with domestic OLED platforms such as BOE, Visionox, and Tianma, as well as expanding into overseas markets through partnerships with Samsung, indicating a proactive approach to establishing a foothold in the automotive touch industry [2][12][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Mini LED Market Strategy**: Tanshan Technology is focusing on the Mini LED market, with a dual strategy involving backlight and direct display applications. The company aims to penetrate the Xiaomi TV supply chain to enhance revenue from Mini LED chips, despite currently low market penetration [3][20]. - **Future Growth in Mini LED**: The global shipment of Mini LED TVs is expected to reach 12 to 15 million units in 2024, although the overall penetration remains low compared to the total TV production of approximately 200 million units [3][20]. - **Acquisition Strategy**: The company is targeting acquisitions in the chip sector, particularly in the display field, to enhance its revenue share from chips to 50%, with a goal of achieving over 50% profit contribution from this segment [23]. - **Technological Landscape**: The global chip industry, particularly in the touch IC sector, is characterized by intense competition, with major players holding significant market shares. Tanshan Technology is positioned to leverage its technology and partnerships to capture market share [21][22]. Conclusion Tanshan Technology is strategically positioning itself in the chip industry, particularly in automotive applications and Mini LED technology, with a clear focus on growth through acquisitions and partnerships. The company's optimistic outlook on the new energy vehicle market and its proactive approach to expanding its product offerings suggest a strong potential for future growth and profitability in the chip sector.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Visual is maintained at "Buy-A" with a target price of 27.80 CNY for the next six months [4]. Core Views - Hisense Visual reported a revenue of 58.53 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 9.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.25 billion CNY, up 7.2% year-over-year. In Q4 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 17.88 billion CNY, a significant increase of 24.3% year-over-year, and a net profit of 0.94 billion CNY, which is a remarkable growth of 100.1% year-over-year [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, Hisense's domestic television sales increased by 14% year-over-year, driven by the "old-for-new" policy stimulating demand in the television industry. The company's global market share for television shipments reached 13.9%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - The net profit margin for Q4 was 5.2%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.0 percentage points, primarily due to improved gross margins from high-end products and stable panel costs [2][3]. Cash Flow - The operating cash flow for Q4 increased by 100 million CNY year-over-year, attributed to rapid revenue growth. Cash received from sales and services rose by 340 million CNY year-over-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing product structure optimization and rapid growth in new display businesses, which include laser display, commercial display, cloud services, and chip businesses. EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.99 CNY, 2.19 CNY, and 2.45 CNY, respectively [3][4].