来源：21世纪经济报道 国际油价同步大涨，NYMEX WTI原油、ICE布油均涨4%，分别报58.4美元/桶、62.79美元/桶。 黄金、白银夜盘走势分化，现货黄金小幅收涨，逼近4490美元关口，现货白银持续下挫跌超1.6%，截 至北京时间7:00，现货白银由跌转涨重上77美元/盎司上方。 美东时间周四，美股三大指数集体低开，收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.55%，标普500指数涨0.01%，纳指跌 0.44%。 能源股全线上涨，康菲石油涨超5%，埃克森美孚涨超3%，雪佛龙涨逾2%。标普500能源指数收涨 3.2%，创2025年4月份以来最大单日涨幅。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Based on the gradually increasing policy expectations in China, it is recommended to emphasize the offensiveness of portfolio allocation under the "balanced allocation" strategy framework. Long - position overweight is recommended for stock indices and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). Precious metals should be standard - allocated in the short term and overweighted at low levels after volatility stabilizes. For different asset classes, the driving logics in the quarterly dimension vary: the domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts; treasury bonds can be considered for bull - steepening opportunities under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited, and a standard allocation is generally recommended; precious metals have high short - term volatility, and investors are advised to build positions at low levels after volatility stabilizes; non - ferrous metals perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry; black commodities return to a weak and oscillatory state after the rebound driven by winter storage; crude oil is generally oscillatory and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas**: Trump may announce the nomination for the new Fed Chair in January. Hassett is the most popular candidate, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years. The geopolitical event in Venezuela over the weekend has a relatively limited short - term positive effect on crude oil and precious metals. Venezuela has about 17% of the world's oil reserves but its actual daily output is only about 1 million barrels, accounting for 1% of the global supply [5]. - **Domestic**: Policy expectations are rising in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The 2026 national subsidy policy has been released, with some optimizations compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two important" construction projects and the central budget investment plan for 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and approved or approved major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds issued at the end of October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [5]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: It is recommended to overweight. The domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to maintain a standard allocation. There are opportunities for bull - steepening under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Standard - allocate in the short term due to high volatility, and overweight at low levels after volatility stabilizes. The short - term positive effect of the Venezuela event on precious metals is limited, and they may show a high - opening and falling - back trend if the conflict does not escalate [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Overweight. They perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry [5]. - **Black Commodities**: After the rebound driven by winter storage, they return to a weak and oscillatory state [5]. - **Crude Oil**: Stay on the sidelines as it is generally oscillatory [5]. 3.3 View Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is the situation of incremental funds [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Use option covered strategies to increase returns. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the liquidity of the option market [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment at the long end is still weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the implementation of monetary policy [6]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of loose liquidity is clear, and the structural shortage of silver spot persists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and the trend of geopolitical conflicts [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The near - term is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and the far - term is concerned about the risk of resumed voyages. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the 2026 shipping company's resumption arrangements, the freight rates of long - term contracts signed at the end of the year, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments to freight rates [6]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The cost performance is differentiated, and the market is in a weak adjustment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the progress of special bond issuance, steel export volume, iron - making water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - making water production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy - level dynamics [6]. - **Coke**: Four rounds of price cuts have been implemented, and the bearish sentiment still exists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal mines in the production area are gradually resuming production, but downstream procurement is still cautious. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Silicon Iron**: The electricity price has slightly loosened, and attention should be paid to production control trends. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the upward movement of the market is blocked. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, and inventory is continuously transferred. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the spot sales and production [6]. - **Soda Ash**: After the end of maintenance, production has recovered, and the upstream inventory has increased significantly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the soda ash inventory [6]. 3.3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously accumulating, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected resumption of ore production, more - than - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [6]. - **Aluminum**: The Mozal aluminum plant is facing shutdown, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the rebound space of zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply [6]. - **Lead**: The willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery has improved, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [6]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel mines, and nickel prices are rebounding. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices drives the stainless - steel market to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth [6]. - **Tin**: Downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the expectations of resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices are rising. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and policy changes [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon continues to have high volatility. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory depletion slows down, and lithium prices are under oscillatory pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and oil prices continue to oscillate. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [8]. - **LPG**: The strong - reality situation is loosening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - **Asphalt**: The political turmoil in Venezuela causes the asphalt futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the crude oil price [8]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions occur frequently, and methanol is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - energy and actual overseas shutdown dynamics [8]. - **Urea**: After - holiday trading is active, and urea is stable and strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force of ethylene glycol is general. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are fluctuations in coal and oil prices and the rhythm of port inventory [8]. - **PX**: There is a repeated game between weak terminal demand and strong expectations, and it is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and disruptions in refining and chemical plants [8]. - **PTA**: The TA processing fee is at the upper end of the range, and the continuous upward space is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and insufficient support from downstream polyester loads [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Weak terminal demand restricts price elasticity. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the demand change rhythm around the Spring Festival [8]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: More device maintenance is scheduled in January, and the basis is firm. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the implementation of bottle - grade PET enterprise production - cut targets and sea freight [8]. - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of reduced PDH operation, and PL is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [8]. - **PP**: Maintenance increases, and PP is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and plastic is considered oscillatory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Styrene**: Driven by exports and a warm commodity atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - **PVC**: Overseas device shutdowns cause PVC to rebound strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are decreasing. Caustic soda is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are market sentiment, operation, and demand [8]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are adjusting downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are customs policies, South American weather, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Trading is gradually resuming, and prices are oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are demand, the macro - situation, and weather [8]. - **Hogs**: The sow inventory decreased in December, and the far - month futures market rebounded. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market maintains an oscillatory trend. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is sharp fluctuations in crude oil [8]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are production and demand [8]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are fluctuating within a narrow range and are still under pressure in the medium term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and falling, and the key points to watch are imports and northern hemisphere production [8]. - **Pulp**: The market is driven by funds and the macro - situation, and pulp futures are oscillating repeatedly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [8]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The spot is stable, and the market is strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sales and production, education policies, and paper mill operation dynamics [8]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are shipment volume and dispatch volume [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，铂、钯跌停 ——中信期货晨报20251230 中信期货研究所 王含章 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | | 沪深300期货 | 4610.2 | -0.61% | -0.619 | 3.08% | -0.17% | 17.58% | | | 上证50期货 | 3038 | -0.44% | -0.44% | 2.67% | 1.64% | 13.44% | | 股指 | 中证500期货 | 7336.6 | -0.70% | -0.70% | 7 883 | 0.6 ...

大宗商品方面，贵金属遭遇重挫。截至北京时间12月30日5:50，伦敦银现跌8.99%，伦敦金现跌4.33%。 当地时间12月29日，美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.51%，标普500指数跌0.35%，纳指跌0.5%。美国科技七巨头指数跌0.60%，特斯拉跌超3%，英伟达 跌超1%。 美股三大股指全线收跌 当地时间12月29日，截至收盘，道指跌0.51%，标普500指数跌0.35%，纳指跌0.5%。 美股大型科技股多数下跌，美国科技七巨头指数跌0.6%。个股方面，特斯拉跌超3%，英伟达跌超1%，亚马逊跌0.19%。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4331.668 | 72.200 | 4349.6 | | -200.742 -4.43% | -7.129 -8.99% | -203.1 -4.46% | | COMEX白银 | SHFE黄金 | SHFE白银 | | 71.600 | 975.80 | 17237 | | -5.596 -7.25% | -40.66 -4.00% | -1650 -8.74% | | 能源化工 ビ | | | | ...

当地时间16日，美国总统特朗普称，他当天下令全面封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮。他在社交媒体上发文说，认定委内瑞拉现政府是"外国恐怖组 织"。 突发。 委方表示，美方军队在公海强行登临该合法从事国际贸易的船只，控制并绑架船员，至今船员下落不明，同时非法没收船上石油货物。委方指出，此举严 重违反《联合国宪章》以及《联合国海洋法公约》，且未经安理会任何授权。 委内瑞拉政府强调，该事件对国际航行安全和正常国际贸易构成严重威胁，要求美方立即无条件释放被扣押船员、归还被没收的石油，并停止一切干扰委 内瑞拉合法石油贸易的行为。 同时，委内瑞拉呼吁安理会公开谴责这一行为，防止类似做法被正常化为国家间施压手段。委内瑞拉重申将继续依法行使对本国资源的主权权利。 委内瑞拉国防部长：已做好捍卫祖国的准备 随后，委内瑞拉副总统兼石油部长罗德里格斯16日说，美国政府封锁进出委受制裁油轮违反国际法。 此前有消息称，美国正在继续加强其在委内瑞拉附近的加勒比海地区的军事存在，F-35A战斗机、EA-18G"咆哮者"电子战飞机被部署到波多黎各。有军事 专家表示，新增调的武器装备表明美国近期的军力调动不仅是象征性的武力展示，也是正在为发动攻击 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the U.S. President Trump's order to fully block all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, labeling the current Venezuelan government as a "foreign terrorist organization" [1] - Venezuela's Vice President and Oil Minister Rodriguez claims that the U.S. blockade violates international law, and there are reports of increased U.S. military presence in the Caribbean, indicating preparations for potential military action [2] - The international oil prices have shown volatility, with NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent crude both rising over 1% after a previous decline of nearly 3% [3] Group 2 - Venezuela has formally accused the U.S. of "state-level piracy" for a recent armed boarding of a Venezuelan oil transport vessel in international waters, which included the seizure of crew members and cargo [6][7] - The Venezuelan government emphasizes that the U.S. actions violate the United Nations Charter and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, calling for the immediate release of the detained crew and the return of the seized oil [8] - Venezuela's Defense Minister Lopez asserts that the country is prepared to defend itself against U.S. imperialism, emphasizing a national stance of vigilance and resistance [10][11]

石油输出国组织（欧佩克）14日发布的最新能源展望指出，应对未来能源需求与挑战需要动用所有形式的能源和相关技术，并需要各 类人群的共同参与。 | | 能源化工 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 消費 | 涨跌幅 | | NYMEX WTI原油 | 57.77d | 0.33 | 0.57% | | ICE布油 | 61.46d | 0.34 | 0.56% | | ICE轻质低硫原油 | 57.55d | 0.31 | 0.54% | | INE原油 | 437.3 | 0.4 | 0.09% | 来源：央视新闻 责编：陈丽湘 报告预计，到2050年，全球能源需求将增长23%。从能源结构看，石油仍将是占比最大的单一能源，份额略低于30%；在2024年至 2050年间，石油与天然气合计占比预计始终保持在50%以上。从区域分布看，全球能源需求增长几乎全部来自发展中国家。与此同 时，发达国家的能源需求总体将保持平稳，或出现下降趋势。 15日，原油期货价格走高。截至发稿，WTI原油报57.77美元/桶，涨幅为0.57%。国内原油期货主力合约报437.3元/桶，由跌转 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing diplomatic efforts and negotiations between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine regarding the conflict, highlighting key points of contention and recent developments in talks aimed at achieving peace [5][10][18]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On November 27, European stock markets experienced slight increases, with the UK FTSE 100 up by 0.02%, France's CAC 40 up by 0.04%, Germany's DAX up by 0.18%, and Italy's FTSE MIB up by 0.21% [2][3]. - International oil prices saw a minor rise, with NYMEX WTI crude oil increasing by 0.77% and ICE Brent crude oil rising by 0.61% [3]. Group 2: Diplomatic Developments - Russian President Putin announced that a U.S. delegation would visit Moscow next week, while Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated that the Ukrainian team would meet with U.S. representatives later in the week to advance the outcomes of the Geneva talks [6][10]. - Key contentious issues in the negotiations include Ukraine's territorial integrity, military size limitations, and NATO membership aspirations, which are seen as sensitive "red lines" for Ukraine [4][10]. Group 3: Negotiation Stances - Putin stated that negotiations with the current Ukrainian leadership lack practical significance due to the absence of legal frameworks necessary for signing binding agreements [8]. - He expressed that the U.S. proposed "Ukraine issue checklist" could serve as a foundation for future agreements, although he did not clarify whether it referred to the original 28-point plan or a modified version [10][11]. Group 4: Changes in Peace Plans - The Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S. confirmed that the controversial "amnesty" clause was removed from the revised 19-point peace plan, which was initially part of the 28-point proposal [16][18]. - The revised plan also includes modifications such as lifting restrictions on the size of the Ukrainian military and postponing discussions on territorial divisions and Ukraine's potential EU and NATO membership [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the new 28-point plan approved by President Trump aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict and restarting negotiations [1][2] - The plan reportedly requires Ukraine to cede more territory in exchange for U.S. security guarantees against future Russian invasions, with the belief that prolonged conflict could lead to greater territorial losses for Ukraine [2] - U.S. officials are applying pressure on Ukrainian President Zelensky to accept the new plan, especially in light of battlefield conditions and domestic corruption scandals [2] Group 2 - Zelensky is scheduled to visit Turkey on November 19 to seek a restart of the stalled peace negotiations, although Russia has stated it will not send representatives to the talks [4][5] - The discussions between Zelensky and Turkish President Erdogan focused on future defense cooperation and the potential for U.S. involvement in the peace process [5][6] - Zelensky aims to restore prisoner exchange operations by the end of the year, with a goal of recovering approximately 1,200 Ukrainian soldiers [6]

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a widespread decline on November 14, with Bitcoin dropping by 2.51%, Ethereum by 5.86%, Ripple by 4.22%, and Dogecoin by 3.84% [1][2]. - In the last 24 hours, nearly 200,000 individuals faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market [3]. Liquidation and Market Sentiment - The total liquidation in the past 24 hours reached approximately $760 million, with long positions accounting for $600 million and short positions for $150 million [4]. - Over the past month, the sell-off of spot Bitcoin ETFs has amounted to around $2.8 billion, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [4][5]. - 10X Research noted that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a bear phase, with Bitcoin and most related assets deeply entrenched in this trend [5]. External Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with Cleveland Fed President suggesting that rates should remain stable to combat inflation [7]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 51.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining current rates is at 48.4% [8]. - International oil prices have surged, with both NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent crude rising over 2% [5]. Gold Market - International gold prices have also seen an increase, with London gold prices rising above $4,200 [9].