Summary of Tencent Holdings (700 HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Industry**: Internet Software & Services - **Market Cap**: Approximately USD 683.3 billion Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **2Q25 Revenue**: Reported at RMB 184.5 billion, beating consensus expectations by 3% [16] - **Growth Rate**: Year-over-year revenue growth of 15% [16] - **Operating Profit**: Non-IFRS operating profit of RMB 69.2 billion, also beating expectations by 4% [16] - **Net Profit**: Non-IFRS net income of RMB 63.1 billion, exceeding consensus by 3% [16] Segment Performance 1. **Domestic Games (DG)**: - Revenue grew by 17% year-over-year, driven by titles like Delta Force and Honor of Kings [17] - Delta Force's daily active users (DAU) exceeded 20 million in July 2025 [17] 2. **International Games (IG)**: - Revenue surged by 35% year-over-year, driven by Supercell's titles and PUBG Mobile [18] - Clash Royale's gross billings reached a seven-year high in June 2025 [18] 3. **Marketing Services**: - Revenue increased by 20% year-over-year, supported by AI-driven improvements [21] - Video Account, Mini Programs, and Weixin Search ads grew by 50%, 50%, and 60% year-over-year, respectively [21] 4. **Fintech and Business Services (FBS)**: - Revenue grew by 10% year-over-year, driven by consumer loans and commercial payments [22] - Total commercial payment volume resumed year-over-year growth in 2Q25 [22] Growth Projections - **Revenue Estimates**: Increased for 2025-2027, with domestic games up by 2-7%, international games by 3-5%, and ad revenue by 2-6% [1] - **Target Price**: Raised to HKD 690 from HKD 650, implying an upside of approximately 18% [1][4] Operational Efficiency - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Total GPM improved to 57%, beating expectations by 2 percentage points [16] - **Cost Management**: General and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue remained flat at 6.3% [25] Shareholder Returns - **Share Buybacks**: Tencent has repurchased HKD 40 billion worth of shares year-to-date, with a commitment of at least HKD 80 billion for 2025 [49][47] - **Dividends**: Planned dividend payments of HKD 41 billion in 2025 [52] Risks and Challenges - **Regulatory Risks**: Potential challenges in obtaining monetization approvals for games and regulatory headwinds in the internet sector [52] - **Market Conditions**: A deeper macroeconomic slowdown could impact advertising budgets [52] Additional Insights - **AI Investments**: Continued benefits from AI investments are expected to drive sustainable growth in advertising and operational efficiency [8] - **Emerging Titles**: Delta Force is on track to become an evergreen title, with the upcoming launch of Valorant Mobile in China being closely watched [8] Conclusion Tencent Holdings demonstrated strong financial performance in 2Q25, with significant growth across its core segments. The company is well-positioned for future growth, supported by strategic investments in AI and a robust pipeline of game titles. However, it faces potential regulatory challenges and macroeconomic risks that could impact its performance. The raised target price reflects confidence in the company's growth trajectory and operational efficiency.

Core Insights - Tencent reported strong financial results for 2Q25, with total revenue and non-IFRS operating income increasing by 15% and 18% year-on-year to RMB184.5 billion and RMB69.2 billion respectively, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3% and 4% [1] Group 1: Gaming Performance - Games revenue grew by 22% year-on-year to RMB59.2 billion in 2Q25, exceeding consensus estimates by 5% [3] - Domestic games revenue increased by 17% year-on-year to RMB40.4 billion, driven by the success of Delta Force and evergreen games, with Delta Force achieving over 20 million average daily active users [3] - International games revenue rose by 35% year-on-year to RMB18.8 billion, supported by Supercell's games, PUBG Mobile, and the launch of Dune: Awakening [3] Group 2: Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue increased by 20% year-on-year to RMB35.8 billion in 2Q25, 2% ahead of consensus estimates, primarily due to AI enhancements and the Weixin transaction ecosystem [4] - Revenue from Video Accounts, Mini Programs, and Weixin Search grew approximately 50%, 50%, and 60% year-on-year respectively [4] - The company is optimistic about the marketing business's growth potential, driven by AI-enhanced ad conversion and increased ad load [4] Group 3: Fintech and Business Services - Fintech and Business Services (FBS) revenue grew by 10% year-on-year to RMB55.5 billion in 2Q25, with fintech revenue accelerating to high-single-digit growth [5] - Business services revenue growth also accelerated to the teens percentage year-on-year, driven by AI cloud and e-commerce services [5] - Gross profit margin (GPM) for FBS expanded by 4.5 percentage points year-on-year to 52.1% due to a favorable revenue mix and improved efficiency [5] Group 4: Profitability and Investment - Non-IFRS operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 37.5% in 2Q25 [6] - Capital expenditures for 1H25 grew by 102% year-on-year to RMB46.6 billion, representing 13% of total revenue, with continued investments in AI infrastructure and marketing [6] - Despite increased investments and depreciation, non-IFRS net profit margin (NPM) is expected to rise by approximately 1 percentage point year-on-year in FY25 and FY26 due to operating leverage and AI empowerment [6]

Tencent Holdings Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Date**: Q2 2025 Earnings Call Key Financial Metrics - Total revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to **184 billion RMB** [2][3] - Gross profit rose by 22% to **105 billion RMB** [2][3] - Non-IFRS operating profit surged by 80% to **69 billion RMB** [2][3] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 10% to **63 billion RMB** [2][3] - Basic net profit, excluding contributions from associates, increased by 20% [3] Gaming Business Highlights - Domestic gaming revenue grew by 17%, driven by long-standing games like **Dota 2** and **Honor of Kings** [2][5] - International gaming revenue increased by 35% (33% at constant currency), supported by titles from **Supercell**, **PUBG Mobile**, and **Awakening of the Song** [2][5] - **Valorant** achieved record average daily active users in China, with **Valorant Mobile** set to launch soon [5] Social Network and Digital Content Developments - Combined monthly active users of **WeChat** reached **1.4 billion** [2][6] - Mini-programs became a crucial platform connecting users with businesses, with mini-game revenue up by 20% [2][6] - Music streaming service **PNE** solidified its leadership, with subscription revenue up by 17% and total subscribers reaching **124 million** [6] Financial Technology and Commercial Services - Financial technology and commercial services revenue rose by 10% to **56 billion RMB** [4][12] - Growth in financial technology services driven by commercial payment and consumer loan services [4][12] - Cloud services revenue accelerated due to increased demand for AI-related GPU and API token services [4][12] Advertising Revenue Growth - Advertising revenue increased by 20%, attributed to improved click-through rates from AI technology deployment [4][11] - AI-driven advertising strategies enhanced return on investment for advertisers [4][11] AI Technology Integration - AI technology upgraded advertising capabilities, improving click rates and conversion rates [2][7] - Large language model features added to mini-programs for smarter customer responses and personalized recommendations [2][7] - AI tools applied in gaming to enhance content creation speed and scale [7] Business Segment Performance - Value-added services (VAST) accounted for 50% of total revenue, with social networks at 18%, domestic games at 22%, and international games at 10% [8] - Marketing services contributed 19% and financial technology and commercial services 30% to total revenue [8] Future Outlook - Continued exploration of AI commercialization opportunities, despite challenges in user payment models in China [4][17] - Anticipated sustained growth in advertising revenue, with AI expected to enhance targeting and conversion rates [11][20] - Ongoing investment in AI and cloud services to meet increasing external enterprise demand [20] Additional Insights - The gaming business is evolving towards a platform model, reducing revenue volatility [21] - Government anti-inflation measures may reduce competition but could accelerate industry consolidation, requiring strategic adjustments [22] - Commercial payment trends show improvement, with transaction volumes growing despite declining average transaction sizes [23] Conclusion Tencent Holdings demonstrated robust growth across various segments in Q2 2025, leveraging AI technology to enhance advertising and gaming experiences while maintaining a strong financial performance. The company is well-positioned for future growth, particularly in the realms of AI and cloud services.

Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais has raised the target price for Tencent Holdings (00700) from HKD 645 to HKD 710, maintaining a "highly confident outperform" rating based on robust growth in gaming and advertising, as well as the success of new games [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Tencent is expected to continue its solid growth in gaming and advertising into Q2 2025, with total revenue and adjusted EBIT projected to grow by 10.1% and 10.2% year-on-year, reaching RMB 177.3 billion and RMB 64.4 billion respectively [1] - Online gaming revenue is anticipated to rise due to strong performance from classic games, particularly "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG Mobile," along with new games like "Delta Force" and "Nikke" [1] Group 2: Advertising and Cloud Business - Tencent's advertising revenue is likely to benefit from upgrades in advertising technology, as well as growth in video accounts, mini-programs, and search business [1] - The cloud business revenue is expected to recover to double-digit growth driven by strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais forecasts Tencent Holdings will continue its robust growth in gaming and advertising by Q2 2025, with total revenue and adjusted EBIT expected to grow by 10.1% and 10.2% year-on-year, reaching 177.3 billion and 64.4 billion respectively [1] Gaming Revenue - Online gaming revenue is anticipated to rise due to strong performance from classic games, particularly "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG Mobile," along with the success of new games like "Delta Force" and "Victory Goddess: Nikki" [1] - The mobile version of "Valorant" is expected to be released in August [1] Advertising Revenue - Tencent's advertising revenue is likely to benefit from upgrades in advertising technology, as well as growth in video accounts, mini-programs, and search business [1] Cloud Business - Revenue from the cloud business is projected to recover to double-digit growth due to strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) [1] Target Price Adjustment - Based on the solid growth in gaming and advertising, as well as the success of new games, the target price has been raised from 64.5 HKD to 71.0 HKD, maintaining a "highly confident outperform" rating [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 Global Esports Conference was held in Shanghai, where the China Audio-Video and Digital Publishing Association released the "2025 China Esports Industry Report" for the first half of the year [1][6] Group 1: Industry Revenue - The actual sales revenue of China's esports industry for the first half of 2025 reached 12.761 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.10% [2][7] - Live streaming revenue accounted for the largest share of the esports industry's income at 80.38%, followed by event revenue at 8.49%, club revenue at 7.03%, and other income at 4.10% [10] Group 2: User Base - The user base of China's esports industry approached 493 million, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.59% [2][12] Group 3: Product Composition - In terms of product types, mobile esports games accounted for 58.5%, client-based games for 25.5%, dual-version games for 11.7%, and web games for 4.3% [17][20] - Among the main esports game categories, shooting games held the highest share at 27.7%, followed by multiplayer online tactical games at 14.9%, and sports games at 11.7% [15] Group 4: Event Statistics - A total of 72 non-performance esports events involving professional players were held at the provincial level or above in the first half of 2025, with 51% being fully offline events and 41% being hybrid events [3][25] - Shanghai remained the city with the highest number of esports events, accounting for 22.9% of the total, followed by Chongqing at 14.0%, Hangzhou at 7.0%, and Beijing at 5.3% [29] Group 5: Club Development - As of June 2025, cities with 10 or more esports clubs included Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, with Shanghai leading at 34 clubs [4][33] - The proportion of clubs participating in multiple types of events has increased, with 54.2% participating in a single type, 24.3% in two types, and 16.8% in three or more types [36] Group 6: International Expansion - The influence of China's esports industry is expanding internationally, with significant viewership for self-developed esports events overseas, peaking at over 4.13 million viewers for a single event [38]

Core Insights - The Chinese esports industry generated actual sales revenue of 12.761 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.10% [2][30] - The user base for esports in China approached 493 million, showing a slight increase of 0.59% year-on-year [6][30] - The esports ecosystem is evolving towards standardization, mainstream acceptance, and internationalization, with a complete industry chain encompassing products, events, live streaming platforms, clubs, and cross-industry collaboration [30] Revenue and User Growth - The actual sales revenue of the Chinese esports industry for January to June 2025 was 12.761 billion yuan, marking a 6.10% increase compared to the previous year [2][30] - The user scale of esports in China reached nearly 493 million, with a modest growth of 0.59% year-on-year, indicating a stable user base [6][30] Revenue Composition - In the revenue structure, live streaming accounted for the largest share at 80.38%, followed by esports events at 8.49%, clubs at 7.03%, and other sources at 4.10% [3][30] Game Product Distribution - Among the main esports game products, shooting games held the highest share at 27.7%, followed by multiplayer online tactical games at 14.9%, and sports games at 11.7% [9][30] - Mobile games dominated the platform distribution, comprising 58.5% of the products, while client games accounted for 25.5%, dual-version games for 11.7%, and web games for 4.3% [10][30] Event Hosting and Club Distribution - A total of 72 non-performance esports events involving professional players were held in the first half of 2025, with 51% conducted entirely offline and 41% in a hybrid format [16][30] - Shanghai remained the city with the highest number of esports clubs, totaling 34, followed by Beijing with 11, Guangzhou with 10, and Shenzhen with 8 [24][30] International Expansion - The Chinese esports industry is expanding its influence overseas, with significant viewership for major events, including a peak of over 4.13 million viewers for a single event [28][30] - The industry is actively exploring markets beyond traditional regions, including Latin America, enhancing its global presence [28][30]

Core Insights - The mobile gaming industry is experiencing significant shifts in revenue rankings, with "Honor of Kings" maintaining its top position, generating $1.05 billion in the first half of the year [1]. Group 1: Revenue Rankings - "Honor of Kings" remains the highest-grossing game with $1.05 billion in revenue [1]. - "Last War: Survival Funfly" and "Whiteout Survival" have risen to second and third place, respectively, with revenues of $895 million and $834 million, marking a substantial increase from their previous rankings [2]. - "Royal Match" and "PUBG Mobile" follow, with revenues of $813 million and $734 million, respectively, showing notable year-on-year growth [2]. Group 2: Year-on-Year Growth - "Last War" saw its revenue surge from $438 million in the previous year to $895 million, while "Whiteout Survival" experienced a similar increase from $369 million to $834 million [2]. - "Royal Match" and "PUBG Mobile" also reported significant growth, with "Royal Match" increasing by approximately $200 million to $813 million and "PUBG Mobile" growing by about $120 million to $734 million [2]. Group 3: Other Notable Performances - "Monopoly Go" experienced a slight decline in revenue from over $700 million to approximately $683 million [3]. - "Candy Crush Saga" grew by about $90 million to $619 million, despite layoffs at its parent company, King [3]. - "Pokémon TCG Pocket" debuted strongly with $488 million in revenue but showed signs of declining popularity, dropping from nearly $100 million monthly to about $55 million by June [3]. Group 4: Stability and Declines - "Coin Master" demonstrated stability with a revenue of $385 million, reflecting a modest increase of $15 million [4]. - "Roblox" faced a significant decline in revenue from $563 million to $361 million, attributed to missing iOS income [5]. - Among the top 20 games, "Pokémon Go" grew by nearly $30 million to $287 million, while "崩坏：星穹铁道" saw a decline of $110 million to $269 million [6]. Group 5: Emerging Trends - Older games like "Monster Strike" and "Clash of Clans" are experiencing a slow decline, while "Clash Royale" is regaining momentum [8]. - Newer titles such as "鸣潮" and "Travel Town" are gaining traction, with revenues of $133 million and $127 million, respectively [8].

Development History and Market Size - The development of domestic games going overseas has gone through four key stages: pre-2012 trial in Southeast Asia with PC games; 2012-2018 explosion of SLG mobile games; post-2018 entry into a full-category era; and 2024 marked by the release of a landmark AAA title, "Black Myth: Wukong," leading a new phase of cultural export [1][6][21] - By 2024, China's self-developed games' overseas revenue reached $18.557 billion, accounting for approximately 11% of the global market share, demonstrating strong growth momentum [1][5][21] Regional Market Structure - The global market shows a "core stable volume, emerging incremental" pattern, with the US, Japan, and South Korea contributing 57.27% of revenue, but with divergent growth rates (South Korea growing rapidly, the US stagnating) [1][6] - Europe has become the "fourth pole" market with a scale of €24.5 billion, while Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America represent significant emerging incremental markets [1][6][21] Hardware Ecosystem and Cultural Preferences - The share of mobile games in China (73.13%) is significantly higher than the global average (52.25%), leading to a focus on mobile games for overseas expansion, with potential opportunities in console games in the future [2][7] - Game type preferences are heavily influenced by regional cultures: the US leads in gambling games (28.9% revenue), Europe prefers SLG (33.7%), and Japan dominates in RPGs (52% share) [2][7] Industry Chain Collaboration and Corporate Strategies - The overseas industry chain has formed a three-layer system of "R&D-localization-channels," with companies possessing full-chain capabilities adopting a "R&D-operation integration" model, retaining over 70% of revenue [3][6] - Leading companies like Tencent and NetEase diversify their product lines to mitigate risks, while others like Lilith focus on vertical tracks, with single products contributing over 80% of revenue [3][6] Business Models and Emerging Opportunities - Product positioning determines the profit model, with high-cost projects relying on direct user payments, while lighter games bind deeply with traffic platforms for ad monetization [3][6] - To break growth bottlenecks, companies need to focus on emerging markets (Southeast Asia's user base, Middle East's payment power, and Latin America's casual gaming demand) and localize deeply [3][6] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The game export process is now seen as a key pillar of digital trade globalization, with significant financial service opportunities arising from the robust demand in mature markets like the US, Japan, and South Korea, as well as emerging markets [5][6] - Future trends include the export of high-quality "flagship products," capital outflows through mergers and acquisitions, and the export of a complete soft and hardware ecosystem [5][6][27]

Core Insights - The global mobile game revenue rankings for May 2025 have been released, showing significant performance variations among top games [1][2]. Group 1: Top Performers - "Honor of Kings" by Tencent continues to lead the chart with a revenue of $184 million in May, maintaining its position after regaining the top spot in April [1][2]. - "Whiteout Survival" and "Last War: Survival" are in a close competition for the second position, with revenues of $137 million and $133 million respectively, marking their third consecutive month of rank changes [2][3]. - "PUBG Mobile" ranks fifth with a revenue of approximately $119 million, showing a slight month-over-month increase [3]. Group 2: Revenue Fluctuations - "Royal Match" experienced significant revenue fluctuations, earning about $127 million in May after peaking at nearly $145 million in March [2]. - "Candy Crush Saga" and "Monopoly Go" followed closely with revenues of $105 million and $100 million, both showing slight declines [3]. - "Pokémon TCG Pocket" saw its revenue rebound to over $80 million, heavily influenced by new card pack releases [3]. Group 3: Rankings 11-20 - The rankings from 11 to 20 include "Gossip Harbor" at $42.4 million, "Brawl Stars" at $38.9 million, and "Honkai: Star Rail" at $38.5 million, indicating a steady performance for these titles [4][5]. - "Gossip Harbor" has shown consistent growth since its launch in mid-2022, achieving a new high in May [5]. - "Fate/Grand Order" made a notable comeback to the top 20 with a revenue of $32.1 million [5].