近日，外媒Mobilegamer.biz发布了2026年1月的全球手游收入榜。（注：数据来源AppMagic，统计范围不包 括第三方安卓渠道、网页商店及广告收入，且已扣除平台分成） 具体来看，《王者荣耀》的收入记录依旧亮眼，其内购收入在1月份实现了环比大幅增长，从12月的约7900万 美元飙升至1月的1.72亿美元。 这个收入与腾讯这款热门MOBA游戏的最高月度收入总额相当，距离其2021年10月创下的1.84亿美元历史纪 录已相差不远。 Scopely的《Monopoly Go》在几个月徘徊在1亿美元关口后，本月收入重新回升至1.2亿美元以上，较2025年1 月的1.04亿美元实现了显著同比增长。 自2024年11月以来，《Last War》的收入曲线就一直波动剧烈，继去年12月冲至近1.39亿美元后，2026年1月 其预估收入为1.2亿美元，呈现回调态势。 Dream Games的《Royal Match》经历数月平稳下滑后重拾环比增长，以1.09亿美元创下去年10月以来的首次 破亿纪录。 《Roblox》的收入在1月份出现了下滑，从12月的约1.25亿美元降至1月的1.07亿美元，与2025年1月收入基 ...

Core Insights - The global mobile game revenue rankings for December 2025 show significant performance variations among top titles, with "LastWar" leading the chart with a revenue of over $141 million, marking its fifth month surpassing this threshold [1] - "Roblox" follows in second place with approximately $119 million in revenue, experiencing a slight increase compared to the previous year but failing to replicate the summer's peak performance [1] - "Monopoly Go" from Scopely saw a revenue drop to about $109 million, maintaining stability compared to the previous year but below its usual monthly average [2] - "Candy Crush" achieved stable revenue of nearly $83 million, showing slight declines year-over-year [2] - "Honor of Kings" experienced a revenue decline to just under $79 million, continuing a trend of annual revenue drops [3] - "Gossip Harbor" and "Kingshot" reported record revenues of over $72 million and $70 million respectively, indicating strong growth [4] - "PUBG Mobile" faced a significant revenue drop to approximately $53 million, reflecting a broader trend of reduced monetization efforts ahead of promotional events [4] - The rankings also highlighted notable movements, with "Last Z: Survival Shooter" rising three places, and "MapleStory: Idle RPG" climbing twelve spots [5] Revenue Performance - "LastWar" topped the revenue chart with $141 million, primarily driven by the U.S. market [1] - "Roblox" generated $119 million, showing an increase of $8 million year-over-year [1] - "Monopoly Go" reported $109 million, consistent with the previous year's performance [2] - "Whiteout Survival" and "Royal Match" maintained revenues of $106 million and $100 million respectively, both showing year-over-year declines [2] - "Candy Crush" earned nearly $83 million, slightly down from the previous year [2] - "Honor of Kings" saw revenues drop to just under $79 million, significantly lower than its peak [3] - "Gossip Harbor" achieved record revenue of over $72 million, while "Kingshot" also reached new highs with over $70 million [4] - "PUBG Mobile" reported $53 million, reflecting a significant decline from previous months [4] - "Pokémon TCG Pocket" earned approximately $36 million, down from over $117 million in the previous year [6] Rankings and Trends - The top 20 mobile games in December included "LastWar," "Roblox," and "Monopoly Go," with notable entries like "Gossip Harbor" and "Kingshot" showing strong upward trends [1][4] - "Last Z: Survival Shooter" and "MapleStory: Idle RPG" experienced significant ranking improvements, indicating growing popularity [5] - "Clash of Clans" fell 15 places in the rankings, achieving a low revenue of about $18.5 million [6]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba and Tencent are two major Chinese tech companies with distinct business models and growth trajectories, facing challenges from regulatory scrutiny and market competition, making their long-term investment reliability a subject of debate [1][2]. Alibaba - Alibaba's revenue primarily comes from its two main marketplaces, Taobao and Tmall, with a smaller portion from its cloud infrastructure business, which has lower margins [4]. - Over the past five years, Alibaba's stock has declined by nearly 40%, attributed to cooling economic growth, antitrust scrutiny, and trade tensions [2]. - Analysts project Alibaba's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% and 11%, respectively, from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, indicating a stabilization phase rather than high growth [7]. - The company is expected to leverage AI-driven recommendations and logistics upgrades to stabilize its core businesses while expanding its international marketplaces [7]. Tencent - Tencent's primary growth driver is WeChat, a super app with over 1.41 billion monthly active users, alongside its video game publishing business [8]. - Tencent's stock has seen a modest increase of 6% over the past five years, facing challenges from competition and regulatory pressures in the gaming sector [2][10]. - Analysts forecast Tencent's revenue and EPS to grow at a CAGR of 11% and 15%, respectively, from 2024 to 2027, supported by the integration of AI into its services and expansion into fintech and business services [12]. - The company is diversifying its revenue streams by enhancing its fintech services and expanding its overseas gaming business to mitigate reliance on the Chinese market [11]. Investment Comparison - Alibaba is trading at 17 times its next year's earnings, while Tencent is at 20 times, with Alibaba appearing cheaper but growing at a slower rate [13]. - Tencent is viewed as a more stable growth option due to the irreplaceable nature of WeChat for its users, despite facing competition in advertising and gaming [13][14]. - Both companies could attract more investors if U.S.-China trade tensions ease, but Tencent's growth strategies seem more robust compared to Alibaba's [14].

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa maintains a "Buy" rating on Tencent Holdings (00700) with a target price of HKD 750, corresponding to a projected P/E ratio of 20.6 for 2026, citing potential downside risk from underperforming game results [1] Group 1: Game Business Insights - Daiwa attended Tencent's PUBG Mobile esports event and engaged with management regarding game business progress, indicating that Tencent is exporting best practices of "games as a service" globally [1] - The integration of Chinese and foreign elements is expected to enhance the appeal of domestic games, with optimism about Tencent's international game expansion and commercialization efforts [1] Group 2: AI and Cloud Capabilities - Tencent is recognized for its unparalleled AI and cloud capabilities, with AI playing a crucial role throughout the entire game lifecycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa maintains a "Buy" rating on Tencent Holdings (00700) with a target price of HKD 750, corresponding to a forecasted P/E ratio of 20.6 times for 2026, citing potential downside risk from underperforming game results [1] Group 1: Game Business Insights - Daiwa attended Tencent's PUBG Mobile esports event and engaged with management regarding the progress of the gaming business [1] - The firm believes Tencent is exporting best practices of "games as a service" globally, enhancing the appeal of domestic games through a blend of Chinese and foreign elements [1] - There is optimism regarding Tencent's international gaming expansion and commercialization efforts [1] Group 2: AI and Cloud Capabilities - Tencent is recognized for its unparalleled AI and cloud capabilities, which play a crucial role throughout the entire gaming lifecycle [1]

Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) Conference Call Summary Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Industry**: Cloud Computing and Gaming - **Event**: Business Sharing event held in Thailand on December 14, featuring key executives from Tencent Key Points and Arguments International Cloud Expansion 1. **Rapid Growth**: Tencent Cloud is expanding internationally, with a presence in 22 regions and 64 availability zones, supported by over 3,200 acceleration nodes and 200 terabits of reserved bandwidth [1][2] 2. **Local Demand**: Strong local demand in ASEAN markets (Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia) is driving this expansion, with significant projects like GoTo's food delivery in Indonesia and CP Group's IT migration in Thailand [1][2] 3. **Brand Recognition**: The localized infrastructure has enhanced Tencent Cloud's brand recognition and growth among key accounts and SMEs in the region [1] Competitive Advantages in Cloud Business 1. **Vertical Capabilities**: Tencent leverages its strengths in media and fintech to meet rising demand for high bandwidth, low latency media PaaS offerings [2] 2. **AI Infrastructure**: The company’s full-stack AI capabilities provide cost-effective infrastructure for overseas customers, optimizing efficiency in training and inference [2] 3. **Market Positioning**: Despite being a later entrant in Southeast Asia, Tencent differentiates itself from global hyperscalers through its offerings and competitive pricing [2] Gaming Market Opportunities 1. **China-to-International Market**: The gaming sector presents substantial opportunities, with Tencent focusing on enhancing its international strategy by exporting successful practices from China [3][10] 2. **Product Focus**: Emphasis on products over platforms, including app stores and user-generated content, is crucial for success in international markets [10] 3. **Shooting Game Genre**: The shooting game market is projected to reach a size of US$38 billion by 2025, with Tencent's strategic investments in this genre enhancing its market share [12] AI in Game Development 1. **Efficiency Gains**: AI is being utilized to improve efficiency in game development, particularly in 2D art and coding, with plans to reinvest these gains into higher-quality games [11] 2. **User Experience**: AI enhances user experience by reducing matching times and improving engagement through AI companions [11][20] Financial Performance and Projections 1. **Revenue Growth**: Total revenues are projected to grow from RMB 554.6 billion in 2022 to RMB 907.4 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9% [21] 2. **Profit Margins**: Gross margins are expected to improve from 43.1% in 2022 to 56.9% by 2027, indicating strong operational efficiency [21] 3. **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Non-GAAP diluted EPS is projected to increase from RMB 23.67 in 2022 to RMB 35.13 by 2027 [25] Strategic Insights 1. **Investment Strategy**: Tencent is committed to investing in innovative developers and enhancing the authenticity of its games by combining Chinese and international influences [10][16] 2. **Market Dynamics**: Different user preferences by region are acknowledged, with mobile gaming dominating in emerging markets while PC gaming remains strong in North America and Europe [24] Conclusion - **Outlook**: Continued confidence in Tencent's growth trajectory, driven by AI applications across its business lines and a robust international strategy in cloud and gaming sectors [13] - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain a "Buy" rating with a 12-month price target of HK$770, reflecting a potential upside of 25% from the current price [23][25]

Core Insights - The Chinese esports industry is experiencing significant growth, with revenue reaching 29.331 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.40% and a user base exceeding 495 million [1][3][6] - Despite the growth, the industry faces challenges related to its revenue structure, heavily reliant on sponsorships, which weakens the risk resilience of clubs and event operators [1][6][7] Industry Growth and Events - The KPL finals set a Guinness World Record with over 62,000 live attendees, showcasing the potential for mainstream acceptance and consumer engagement in esports [1][3] - The number of provincial and above-level professional esports events increased to 142 in 2025, with over half adopting a fully offline format, indicating a shift towards driving physical scene consumption [4] Revenue Structure and Challenges - Live streaming revenue constitutes 80.81% of the esports industry's income, while event and club revenues combined account for only 15.03%, highlighting a lack of diversification in revenue sources [6] - More than half of the clubs are tied to the performance of a specific game, indicating a vulnerability in the business model [6] Future Outlook and Recommendations - The industry must transition from a reliance on capital and traffic growth to a more sustainable model that converts online viewership into continuous consumer behavior [7] - Key areas for growth include integrating AI technology, enhancing the esports ecosystem, and exploring the "esports+" model to convert online traffic into offline consumption [7]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings has withdrawn from the takeover bid for Warner Bros Discovery by Paramount Skydance Corp to avoid increased scrutiny of foreign investments in the US [1][2][4] Group 1: Tencent's Involvement - Tencent had initially pledged US$1 billion as part of Paramount's proposal to acquire Warner Bros, but was removed as a financing partner in the latest all-cash offer of US$30 per share [2][4] - The decision to remove Tencent was influenced by concerns from Warner Bros regarding potential reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) [2][4] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Tencent's withdrawal highlights the tightening regulatory environment for Chinese investments in significant US media and technology deals [4] - The US Department of Defense designated Tencent as a "Chinese military company" in January 2025, leading to increased scrutiny of its activities in the US [5][6] Group 3: Tencent's Financial Position - Tencent has a market capitalization of approximately US$700 billion and over US$20 billion in cash and equivalents as of the end of September, indicating strong financial capacity for overseas acquisitions [5] - The company holds stakes in several US tech and gaming firms, including Epic Games and Snap Inc., despite the regulatory challenges it faces [5]

Core Insights - "Honor of Kings" by Tencent returns to the top of the revenue chart with $134.1 million in October, showing a significant increase of nearly $20 million from September, although still below the peak of approximately $180 million in January and February [2] - "LastWar: Survival" sees a slight revenue increase from $112 million in September to $125 million in October, maintaining levels similar to earlier this spring [2] - "Roblox" ranks third with October revenue of $121.9 million, remaining stable compared to September but significantly lower than its summer peak of over $150 million [3] Revenue Performance - "Monopoly Go" and "Royal Match" maintain regular performance with revenues of $117.5 million and $106.6 million respectively in October [3] - "Whiteout Survival" experiences a decline, falling below $100 million for the first time since September 2024, with a drop in revenue after two consecutive months of decline [3] - "Candy Crush Saga" continues to show stable performance, maintaining around $80 million in revenue [4] Rankings and Changes - "Kingshot" achieves a new record high with October revenue of $66.8 million, while "Gossip Harbor" surpasses $60 million [4] - "Clash Royale" sees a revenue decrease to approximately $58.6 million, down nearly $10 million from the previous month, but still significantly higher than its spring levels of around $13 million [4] - The global revenue rankings for mobile games in October show "Delta Force" by Tencent at 11th place with $48.3 million, while "Pokémon TCG Pocket" rises significantly to 13th place with $44 million, boosted by a new card pack release [5] Notable Declines - "PUBG Mobile" experiences a revenue drop from $131 million in August to $41.9 million in October [6] - "Genshin Impact" and "Royal Kingdom" see notable rank increases, while other titles like "Honkai: Star Rail" and "Crossfire" show significant declines in the top 50 rankings [6]

Industry Overview - The gaming industry is defined as an ecosystem economy centered around "content + technology + users," encompassing activities such as development, marketing, sales, and after-sales of video games [1] - Key participants include game developers, operators, distributors, and players, operating across various platforms like PC, mobile devices, and consoles [1] Industry Chain Analysis - The upstream of the gaming industry includes IP owners and game developers, while the midstream consists of comprehensive game publishers, and the downstream involves terminal distribution and marketing channels [2] Industry Development History - The development of China's gaming industry can be divided into several key stages: 1. **Emergence and Initial Phase (1980s-2000s)**: Introduction of arcade games and home consoles [5] 2. **Exploration and Growth Phase (2003-2015)**: Rise of domestic online games supported by national policies [5] 3. **Full Explosion and Mobile Transformation (2015-2020)**: Transition to mobile gaming with the growth of 4G users [6] 4. **High-Quality Development and Adjustment Phase (2021-Present)**: Shift towards regulated growth and overseas markets [6][7] Current Industry Status - The gaming market in China is rebounding, with a projected market size of 325.78 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.53% [9] - After a brief decline from 2020 to 2022, the market is expected to grow at over 7% annually, reaching 168 billion yuan by mid-2025 [9] - Overseas revenue for Chinese gaming is projected to reach 18.557 billion USD in 2024, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 13.39% [10] Market Segmentation - **Mobile Gaming**: Expected revenue of 238.217 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 5.01% [14] - **Web Games**: Revenue is declining, with a projected 2.203 billion yuan in 2025, down 5.87% [19] - **Client Games**: Stable growth with a projected revenue of 35.403 billion yuan in 2025, up 4.86% [20] - **Console Games**: Rapid growth with a projected revenue of 1.034 billion yuan in 2025, up 29.78% [23] Competitive Landscape - The majority of listed gaming companies are concentrated in developed regions like Guangdong and Beijing, with Guangdong having the highest number at 27 [24] - The market is fragmented, but major players like Tencent and NetEase dominate, accounting for 60% of the market capitalization of listed gaming companies [27] Future Development Trends - The gaming industry in China is expected to continue growing, with a market size projected to exceed 360 billion yuan by 2025 and potentially reach 500 billion yuan by 2030 [33] - There is a trend towards deeper integration of traditional culture into gaming products, supported by favorable policies [34]