Core Viewpoint - Alibaba and Tencent are two major Chinese tech companies with distinct business models and growth trajectories, facing challenges from regulatory scrutiny and market competition, making their long-term investment reliability a subject of debate [1][2]. Alibaba - Alibaba's revenue primarily comes from its two main marketplaces, Taobao and Tmall, with a smaller portion from its cloud infrastructure business, which has lower margins [4]. - Over the past five years, Alibaba's stock has declined by nearly 40%, attributed to cooling economic growth, antitrust scrutiny, and trade tensions [2]. - Analysts project Alibaba's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% and 11%, respectively, from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, indicating a stabilization phase rather than high growth [7]. - The company is expected to leverage AI-driven recommendations and logistics upgrades to stabilize its core businesses while expanding its international marketplaces [7]. Tencent - Tencent's primary growth driver is WeChat, a super app with over 1.41 billion monthly active users, alongside its video game publishing business [8]. - Tencent's stock has seen a modest increase of 6% over the past five years, facing challenges from competition and regulatory pressures in the gaming sector [2][10]. - Analysts forecast Tencent's revenue and EPS to grow at a CAGR of 11% and 15%, respectively, from 2024 to 2027, supported by the integration of AI into its services and expansion into fintech and business services [12]. - The company is diversifying its revenue streams by enhancing its fintech services and expanding its overseas gaming business to mitigate reliance on the Chinese market [11]. Investment Comparison - Alibaba is trading at 17 times its next year's earnings, while Tencent is at 20 times, with Alibaba appearing cheaper but growing at a slower rate [13]. - Tencent is viewed as a more stable growth option due to the irreplaceable nature of WeChat for its users, despite facing competition in advertising and gaming [13][14]. - Both companies could attract more investors if U.S.-China trade tensions ease, but Tencent's growth strategies seem more robust compared to Alibaba's [14].

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa maintains a "Buy" rating on Tencent Holdings (00700) with a target price of HKD 750, corresponding to a projected P/E ratio of 20.6 for 2026, citing potential downside risk from underperforming game results [1] Group 1: Game Business Insights - Daiwa attended Tencent's PUBG Mobile esports event and engaged with management regarding game business progress, indicating that Tencent is exporting best practices of "games as a service" globally [1] - The integration of Chinese and foreign elements is expected to enhance the appeal of domestic games, with optimism about Tencent's international game expansion and commercialization efforts [1] Group 2: AI and Cloud Capabilities - Tencent is recognized for its unparalleled AI and cloud capabilities, with AI playing a crucial role throughout the entire game lifecycle [1]

该行近日出席了腾讯的PUBG Mobile电竞活动，并与管理层交流了游戏业务进展，认为腾讯正将"游戏 即服务"的最佳实践输出至全球，中外元素融合可提升国产游戏的吸引力，看好该公司在国际游戏拓展 的发展及商业化步伐。该行认为腾讯拥有无与伦比的AI和云端能力，而AI在整个游戏生命周期中都扮 演着至关重要的角色。 智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，重申对腾讯控股(00700)的"买入"评级，目标价750港元，对应 2026年预测市盈率20.6倍，认为目前较重大潜在下行风险为游戏表现逊预期。 ...

15 December 2025 | 7:34AM HKT Equity Research Tencent Holdings (0700.HK): Business Sharing Highlights: Long runway for int'l cloud & overseas games growth empowered by AI; Buy We attended Tencent's Business Sharing event, held alongside the PUBG MOBILE eSports Grand Finals, in Thailand on Dec 14 hosted by Tencent's Chief Strategy Officer, Vice President of Tencent Cloud International, Head of LightSpeed Studios (Quantum Studio & Anyplay Studio) and other Games business heads. Key focus areas/topics and take ...

Core Insights - The Chinese esports industry is experiencing significant growth, with revenue reaching 29.331 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.40% and a user base exceeding 495 million [1][3][6] - Despite the growth, the industry faces challenges related to its revenue structure, heavily reliant on sponsorships, which weakens the risk resilience of clubs and event operators [1][6][7] Industry Growth and Events - The KPL finals set a Guinness World Record with over 62,000 live attendees, showcasing the potential for mainstream acceptance and consumer engagement in esports [1][3] - The number of provincial and above-level professional esports events increased to 142 in 2025, with over half adopting a fully offline format, indicating a shift towards driving physical scene consumption [4] Revenue Structure and Challenges - Live streaming revenue constitutes 80.81% of the esports industry's income, while event and club revenues combined account for only 15.03%, highlighting a lack of diversification in revenue sources [6] - More than half of the clubs are tied to the performance of a specific game, indicating a vulnerability in the business model [6] Future Outlook and Recommendations - The industry must transition from a reliance on capital and traffic growth to a more sustainable model that converts online viewership into continuous consumer behavior [7] - Key areas for growth include integrating AI technology, enhancing the esports ecosystem, and exploring the "esports+" model to convert online traffic into offline consumption [7]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings has withdrawn from the takeover bid for Warner Bros Discovery by Paramount Skydance Corp to avoid increased scrutiny of foreign investments in the US [1][2][4] Group 1: Tencent's Involvement - Tencent had initially pledged US$1 billion as part of Paramount's proposal to acquire Warner Bros, but was removed as a financing partner in the latest all-cash offer of US$30 per share [2][4] - The decision to remove Tencent was influenced by concerns from Warner Bros regarding potential reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) [2][4] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Tencent's withdrawal highlights the tightening regulatory environment for Chinese investments in significant US media and technology deals [4] - The US Department of Defense designated Tencent as a "Chinese military company" in January 2025, leading to increased scrutiny of its activities in the US [5][6] Group 3: Tencent's Financial Position - Tencent has a market capitalization of approximately US$700 billion and over US$20 billion in cash and equivalents as of the end of September, indicating strong financial capacity for overseas acquisitions [5] - The company holds stakes in several US tech and gaming firms, including Epic Games and Snap Inc., despite the regulatory challenges it faces [5]

Core Insights - "Honor of Kings" by Tencent returns to the top of the revenue chart with $134.1 million in October, showing a significant increase of nearly $20 million from September, although still below the peak of approximately $180 million in January and February [2] - "LastWar: Survival" sees a slight revenue increase from $112 million in September to $125 million in October, maintaining levels similar to earlier this spring [2] - "Roblox" ranks third with October revenue of $121.9 million, remaining stable compared to September but significantly lower than its summer peak of over $150 million [3] Revenue Performance - "Monopoly Go" and "Royal Match" maintain regular performance with revenues of $117.5 million and $106.6 million respectively in October [3] - "Whiteout Survival" experiences a decline, falling below $100 million for the first time since September 2024, with a drop in revenue after two consecutive months of decline [3] - "Candy Crush Saga" continues to show stable performance, maintaining around $80 million in revenue [4] Rankings and Changes - "Kingshot" achieves a new record high with October revenue of $66.8 million, while "Gossip Harbor" surpasses $60 million [4] - "Clash Royale" sees a revenue decrease to approximately $58.6 million, down nearly $10 million from the previous month, but still significantly higher than its spring levels of around $13 million [4] - The global revenue rankings for mobile games in October show "Delta Force" by Tencent at 11th place with $48.3 million, while "Pokémon TCG Pocket" rises significantly to 13th place with $44 million, boosted by a new card pack release [5] Notable Declines - "PUBG Mobile" experiences a revenue drop from $131 million in August to $41.9 million in October [6] - "Genshin Impact" and "Royal Kingdom" see notable rank increases, while other titles like "Honkai: Star Rail" and "Crossfire" show significant declines in the top 50 rankings [6]

Industry Overview - The gaming industry is defined as an ecosystem economy centered around "content + technology + users," encompassing activities such as development, marketing, sales, and after-sales of video games [1] - Key participants include game developers, operators, distributors, and players, operating across various platforms like PC, mobile devices, and consoles [1] Industry Chain Analysis - The upstream of the gaming industry includes IP owners and game developers, while the midstream consists of comprehensive game publishers, and the downstream involves terminal distribution and marketing channels [2] Industry Development History - The development of China's gaming industry can be divided into several key stages: 1. **Emergence and Initial Phase (1980s-2000s)**: Introduction of arcade games and home consoles [5] 2. **Exploration and Growth Phase (2003-2015)**: Rise of domestic online games supported by national policies [5] 3. **Full Explosion and Mobile Transformation (2015-2020)**: Transition to mobile gaming with the growth of 4G users [6] 4. **High-Quality Development and Adjustment Phase (2021-Present)**: Shift towards regulated growth and overseas markets [6][7] Current Industry Status - The gaming market in China is rebounding, with a projected market size of 325.78 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.53% [9] - After a brief decline from 2020 to 2022, the market is expected to grow at over 7% annually, reaching 168 billion yuan by mid-2025 [9] - Overseas revenue for Chinese gaming is projected to reach 18.557 billion USD in 2024, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 13.39% [10] Market Segmentation - **Mobile Gaming**: Expected revenue of 238.217 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 5.01% [14] - **Web Games**: Revenue is declining, with a projected 2.203 billion yuan in 2025, down 5.87% [19] - **Client Games**: Stable growth with a projected revenue of 35.403 billion yuan in 2025, up 4.86% [20] - **Console Games**: Rapid growth with a projected revenue of 1.034 billion yuan in 2025, up 29.78% [23] Competitive Landscape - The majority of listed gaming companies are concentrated in developed regions like Guangdong and Beijing, with Guangdong having the highest number at 27 [24] - The market is fragmented, but major players like Tencent and NetEase dominate, accounting for 60% of the market capitalization of listed gaming companies [27] Future Development Trends - The gaming industry in China is expected to continue growing, with a market size projected to exceed 360 billion yuan by 2025 and potentially reach 500 billion yuan by 2030 [33] - There is a trend towards deeper integration of traditional culture into gaming products, supported by favorable policies [34]

Summary of Tencent Holdings (700 HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Industry**: Internet Software & Services - **Market Cap**: Approximately USD 683.3 billion Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **2Q25 Revenue**: Reported at RMB 184.5 billion, beating consensus expectations by 3% [16] - **Growth Rate**: Year-over-year revenue growth of 15% [16] - **Operating Profit**: Non-IFRS operating profit of RMB 69.2 billion, also beating expectations by 4% [16] - **Net Profit**: Non-IFRS net income of RMB 63.1 billion, exceeding consensus by 3% [16] Segment Performance 1. **Domestic Games (DG)**: - Revenue grew by 17% year-over-year, driven by titles like Delta Force and Honor of Kings [17] - Delta Force's daily active users (DAU) exceeded 20 million in July 2025 [17] 2. **International Games (IG)**: - Revenue surged by 35% year-over-year, driven by Supercell's titles and PUBG Mobile [18] - Clash Royale's gross billings reached a seven-year high in June 2025 [18] 3. **Marketing Services**: - Revenue increased by 20% year-over-year, supported by AI-driven improvements [21] - Video Account, Mini Programs, and Weixin Search ads grew by 50%, 50%, and 60% year-over-year, respectively [21] 4. **Fintech and Business Services (FBS)**: - Revenue grew by 10% year-over-year, driven by consumer loans and commercial payments [22] - Total commercial payment volume resumed year-over-year growth in 2Q25 [22] Growth Projections - **Revenue Estimates**: Increased for 2025-2027, with domestic games up by 2-7%, international games by 3-5%, and ad revenue by 2-6% [1] - **Target Price**: Raised to HKD 690 from HKD 650, implying an upside of approximately 18% [1][4] Operational Efficiency - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Total GPM improved to 57%, beating expectations by 2 percentage points [16] - **Cost Management**: General and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue remained flat at 6.3% [25] Shareholder Returns - **Share Buybacks**: Tencent has repurchased HKD 40 billion worth of shares year-to-date, with a commitment of at least HKD 80 billion for 2025 [49][47] - **Dividends**: Planned dividend payments of HKD 41 billion in 2025 [52] Risks and Challenges - **Regulatory Risks**: Potential challenges in obtaining monetization approvals for games and regulatory headwinds in the internet sector [52] - **Market Conditions**: A deeper macroeconomic slowdown could impact advertising budgets [52] Additional Insights - **AI Investments**: Continued benefits from AI investments are expected to drive sustainable growth in advertising and operational efficiency [8] - **Emerging Titles**: Delta Force is on track to become an evergreen title, with the upcoming launch of Valorant Mobile in China being closely watched [8] Conclusion Tencent Holdings demonstrated strong financial performance in 2Q25, with significant growth across its core segments. The company is well-positioned for future growth, supported by strategic investments in AI and a robust pipeline of game titles. However, it faces potential regulatory challenges and macroeconomic risks that could impact its performance. The raised target price reflects confidence in the company's growth trajectory and operational efficiency.

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings has exceeded market expectations with its operating performance, driven by accelerated benefits from AI investments [2][9]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Tencent achieved revenue of approximately 184.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 15%, and a net profit of about 55.6 billion yuan, up nearly 17% [2][3]. - For the first half of 2025, Tencent's revenue reached 364.5 billion yuan, with a net profit of approximately 103.4 billion yuan, both setting historical highs and marking the first time net profit surpassed 100 billion yuan in the mid-year results [4][6]. Business Segments - Tencent's revenue from its three main business segments in Q2 2025 was as follows: Value-Added Services (913.68 billion yuan, +16%), Marketing Services (357.62 billion yuan, +20%), and Financial Technology & Enterprise Services (555.36 billion yuan, +10%) [6]. - The growth in Value-Added Services was driven by popular games and new releases, while Marketing Services benefited from improvements in advertising platforms and increased demand from advertisers [6][9]. Market Performance - Tencent's stock price has shown strong performance, rising over 40% since the beginning of the year, with a recent opening price of 600 HKD per share, marking a return to this level for the first time in over four years [2][12]. R&D and Investments - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, reaching 24.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a 17% year-on-year increase, and capital expenditures of 19.1 billion yuan, up 119%, primarily for AI infrastructure [9][10]. International Expansion - Tencent's international market influence is expanding, with a 35% year-on-year increase in international game revenue in Q2 2025, reaching 18.8 billion yuan, and plans for further investment in data centers in the Middle East and Japan [11].