1月19日，国际货币基金组织(IMF)发布《世界经济展望报告》更新内容，预计2026年世界经济将增长 3.3%，较去年10月预测值上调0.2个百分点；2027年将增长3.2%，与去年10月预测值持平。此前，世界 银行(以下简称"世行")发布最新一期《全球经济展望》报告，将2026年全球经济增长预期上调至2.6%， 较2025年6月预测值提高0.2个百分点。 世行报告认为，关税冲击、保护主义升级、地缘政治紧张、财政脆弱性加剧等因素仍对全球经济构成下 行压力，但以人工智能为代表的技术革命加速渗透实体经济，叠加企业聚焦科技创新与绿色转型的投资 导向，正培育形成经济新动能，为全球经济新一轮增长周期积累力量。世行和IMF呼吁各国政府调整政 策，加大对科技和教育的投资，共促全球经济可持续发展。 多重因素促进经济稳步复苏 世行报告认为，世界经济在贸易逆风加剧的复杂环境下展现出超出预期的韧性，2025年增速达2.7%， 好于此前市场预期。其中，发达经济体增长1.7%，新兴市场和发展中经济体以4.2%的增速成为全球增 长的重要引擎。这一态势主要源于贸易品库存合理累积、人工智能相关投资扩大及全球供应链主动优化 调整。世行预测，未 ...

Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank's January 2026 Global Economic Outlook report indicates that despite ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainties, global economic resilience exceeds expectations. The global growth rate is projected to slightly decline to 2.6% in 2026, with a rebound to 2.7% in 2027, highlighting a weakening growth momentum [1][2]. Economic Recovery Disparities - In 2025, global per capita GDP is expected to be approximately 10% higher than in 2019. However, the recovery is highly uneven, with nearly 90% of developed economies returning to pre-pandemic income levels, while over a quarter of emerging markets and developing economies, particularly low-income and conflict-affected countries, still lag behind [2][3]. Trade Dynamics - Global trade growth in 2025 is primarily driven by companies preemptively importing and exporting to avoid tariff risks. However, starting in 2026, trade growth is expected to slow significantly due to inventory reductions and the impact of tariffs, with trade policy uncertainties dampening business investment and confidence [2][3]. Inflation Trends - Global inflation is generally on a downward trend, with most countries' inflation rates nearing central bank targets. The impact of U.S. tariffs on goods inflation has been partially offset by inventory accumulation and supply chain adjustments, although financial market volatility remains a significant risk [3][4]. Employment Challenges - Employment remains a core challenge for developing economies, which struggle to create sufficient job opportunities for a rapidly growing young population. By 2035, approximately 1.2 billion young people are expected to enter the labor market, while many countries still have per capita incomes below pre-pandemic levels [4][5]. Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need for a coordinated global response to address trade, debt, climate, and financial risks. Key recommendations include maintaining and improving the multilateral trade system, supporting financing and debt relief for developing economies, enhancing global cooperation on climate risks, and ensuring financial stability through coordinated macroeconomic policies [5].

难能可贵在，逆风破浪的"稳"与"进"。经济的稳定运行，是抵御风险的最大底气。当前，全球经济增长 动能不足，地缘政治冲突、保护主义升温等"逆风"强劲，同时，国内困难挑战也在增多。在这样复杂严 峻的形势下，中国经济以领跑主要经济体的增速，连续多年贡献全球30%左右的经济增长，成为推动世 界经济增长的稳定器和动力源。这份"稳"，不是风平浪静中的顺水行舟，而是劈波斩浪的坚韧前行；这 份"进"，是无惧风险挑战，始终坚持高质量发展方向不动摇，坚定不移深化改革扩大开放。全年经济社 会发展主要目标任务的圆满实现，源于党中央的坚强领导，源于制度优势的充分彰显，源于全国上下同 心同德的拼搏奋斗。 难能可贵在，质效提升的"新"与"实"。2025年的中国经济，最亮眼的风景莫过于新质生产力的蓬勃生 长。产业端"向新而行"：我国成为世界上首个国内有效发明专利拥有量超500万件的国家，科技创新和 产业创新融合发展成果厚积薄发，装备制造业和高技术制造业较快增长，人工智能成为更多人工作生活 中的好伙伴，新能源汽车产销量连续11年位居全球第一，"中国智造"成为全球市场的热门标签。消费 端"新意十足"：以旧换新让更多高端、绿色、智能消费品进入百姓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of regional coordinated development as an inherent requirement of Chinese modernization, highlighting the need for a strategic approach to optimize regional economic layout and promote balanced development across different regions [1][2]. Group 1: Regional Development Strategies - The current regional development strategy system in China includes regional coordinated development strategy, major regional strategies, main functional area strategy, and new urbanization strategy, each with its own focus and strengths, yet they support and unify each other to shape a new regional development pattern [2]. - The regional coordinated development strategy aims to address development disparities, focusing on macro balance and promoting collaborative development among the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions to reduce regional development gaps and disparities in public services [3]. - Major regional strategies focus on enhancing development capabilities through high-quality initiatives such as the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, aiming to create a driving force for high-quality development [3]. - The main functional area strategy emphasizes spatial order by delineating urbanization areas, major agricultural production areas, and key ecological function areas, ensuring that economic and social development aligns with land and resource carrying capacities [3]. - The new urbanization strategy aims to optimize spatial carriers by promoting coordinated development of cities and towns, enhancing urban-rural integration, and providing high-quality spatial carriers for industry and population aggregation [3]. Group 2: Challenges and Systemic Enhancements - Despite significant achievements in regional coordinated development since the 18th National Congress, challenges such as policy fragmentation, lack of smooth policy coordination, and mismatches between population-economic layout and resource carrying capacities remain evident [4]. - To enhance the overall effectiveness of strategies, it is crucial to leverage the synergies of regional coordinated development, major regional strategies, main functional area strategy, and new urbanization strategy to address structural contradictions in economic and social development [5]. - Strengthening goal coordination and policy collaboration at national and provincial levels is essential for ensuring that short-term measures align with long-term strategic directions and that local goals match overall objectives [6]. - Promoting the free flow of factors is vital for regional integration, necessitating comprehensive reforms in the market allocation of labor, land, capital, technology, and data [7]. Group 3: Resilience and Infrastructure - Enhancing resilience through strategic synergies involves creating networks for industrial collaboration, emergency management, and ecological protection, ensuring regions can adapt and recover from shocks [8]. - Infrastructure resilience should focus on major transportation, energy, water, and information infrastructure projects that connect key economic corridors and urban clusters, facilitating the flow of factors and industrial collaboration [9]. - A unified national market is crucial for maximizing the effects of strategic synergies, requiring the removal of local protectionism and market segmentation to unleash the potential of a large-scale market [9]. - Establishing a flexible institutional framework and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for policy effectiveness is necessary to optimize implementation paths and share successful governance experiences across regions [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant achievement of China in eradicating absolute poverty by the end of 2020, marking a milestone in the nation's development history, and outlines the importance of consolidating these gains during the transition period leading up to 2026 [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Historical Significance and Global Value - The eradication of absolute poverty is a milestone event in the history of the Chinese nation, with the Communist Party of China leading efforts to improve living standards and social productivity [2]. - By the end of 2012, there were still 98.99 million rural poor, representing a poverty rate of 10.2%, which was a major shortcoming in achieving the first centenary goal [2]. Achievements in Poverty Alleviation - By the end of 2020, all 98.99 million rural poor were lifted out of poverty, with 832 impoverished counties removed from the poverty list and 128,000 impoverished villages eliminated [3]. - Since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, over 7 million individuals have been identified for assistance to prevent a return to poverty, with more than 30 million people from impoverished backgrounds maintaining stable employment [3]. Global Comparison - China's success in poverty alleviation contrasts sharply with the global situation, where the World Bank estimates that by 2024, around 692 million people will still live in extreme poverty [4]. - China achieved its poverty reduction goals ten years ahead of the UN's 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, providing a model for global poverty alleviation efforts [4]. Practical Experience and Theoretical Framework - The success in poverty alleviation has led to the development of a unique Chinese theory on poverty reduction, which emphasizes narrowing urban-rural and regional development gaps [5]. - The approach includes a phased and targeted strategy, adapting to economic and social development patterns [6]. Investment Strategies - The strategy combines investments in infrastructure and human capital, with significant financial resources allocated to poverty alleviation, including nearly 1.6 trillion yuan in special funds [7]. - During the transition period, continued financial support and investment in education and health services are crucial for sustaining poverty alleviation efforts [8]. Ecological and Regional Development - The strategy also focuses on leveraging ecological resources in impoverished areas, promoting sustainable development through ecological compensation and resource utilization [9]. - The relocation of impoverished populations to more viable areas has been a key measure, with over 3.5 million people relocated to improve living conditions [10]. Future Directions for Agricultural Modernization - The article outlines the need for ongoing support for rural revitalization and agricultural modernization, emphasizing the importance of integrating poverty alleviation into broader rural development strategies [11][12]. - Continuous monitoring and targeted assistance are essential to prevent a return to poverty and ensure that previously impoverished areas keep pace with national development [13]. Enhancing Agricultural and Rural Development - The goal is to transform agriculture into a modern industry, improve rural living conditions, and ensure farmers' income stability, with a target to reduce the urban-rural income ratio to 2.34:1 by 2024 [14].

"十四五"期间，我国乡村振兴取得了突出成效，为"十五五"时期扎实推进乡村全面振兴奠定了坚实基 础。乡村振兴是全面系统工程，是产业、人才、文化、生态、组织"五位一体"的全面振兴。乡村振兴也 是中国式现代化的重要内容，必须从全面建设社会主义现代化国家的角度统筹推进农业农村现代化进 程。 农业综合生产能力提质增效。"十四五"期间，耕地保护、要素保障、技术创新、产业发展等方面的投入 力度不断加大，我国农业综合生产能力得到了极大提升。农业的功能和价值日益多元，农业成为现代产 业体系的重要组成部分。随着人民群众生活水平的提高，食品消费已经从"吃饱"向"吃好、吃健康"转 型，在保障粮食安全的基础之上，农业需要进一步满足人民群众多元的食品消费需求。农业本身作为一 种生态景观，也发挥着保护生态环境、发展休闲旅游产业的作用，农业的生态、社会等其他功能得到进 一步发挥。近年来，各类人才、模式下乡带来的"运营下乡"推动新的产业发展方式不断出现，带动了乡 村休闲旅游等新业态的繁荣。技术革命也深刻地为农村发展提供了新的动能，农业的自动化、数字化水 平不断提升，农业日益成为链接多元产业主体的复杂产业链。"十五五"规划建议提出，把农业建成现 ...

上周，在美国司法部向美联储发出传票之后，多家央行罕见地发表联合声明声援美联储主席鲍威 尔。这种看似"干涉"美国内政的行动，反映出在美元信用不断下滑的背景下，欧美资本对可能出现系统 性风险的担忧在不断上升。 美元信用受损将引发全球大范围资产重估。美元在全球外汇储备中占比约58%，是全球贸易结算和 金融交易的主要货币。在现有体系框架下，美联储若在美国国内政治斗争中介入过深，其货币政策将失 去市场信任，投资者会要求更高的风险溢价，推高美债收益率和全球借贷成本。同时，现有货币政策协 调机制将出现紊乱。多家央行在制定政策时，往往需要预判美联储的利率路径。若美联储决策从经济数 据转向政治信号，其参照系将出现重大调整，政策制定成本陡增，加剧金融市场波动。此外，全球金融 监管框架也面临挑战。 (责任编辑：臧梦雅) 多家央行"捍卫独立性"的声明，无意中揭示了西方资本"打断骨头连着筋"的底色。央行独立性并非 美国独有，而是西方主要经济体的制度共识。特朗普政府对美联储的施压，被视为对全球央行独立性的 系统性挑战，也触及了西方资本更深层次的担忧。特别是对"破窗效应"的担忧。签署声明的欧洲央行、 英国央行行长无不面临内部政治压力。美国 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles revolves around the resurgence of rural cultural activities, particularly the popularity of events like "killing pigs" and "pork soup," which have gained significant attention online and reflect a longing for cultural memories and rural connections [1][2][3] - The rise of short video platforms and live streaming has provided unprecedented attention and monetization opportunities for rural areas, showcasing local customs and fostering emotional consumption among urban dwellers [2][3] - The unexpected popularity of the "killing pig banquet" serves as a reminder of the importance of cultural and emotional ties in rural revitalization, emphasizing the need for a blend of cultural tourism and agricultural development [3][4] Group 2 - Rural areas are increasingly recognized for their cultural, emotional, and social values, beyond just agricultural production, highlighting the unique appeal of rural life [2][3] - The integration of cultural resources and local customs into rural tourism is essential to avoid homogenization and enhance the attractiveness of rural experiences [3] - The ongoing rural revitalization efforts must focus on showcasing the economic, ecological, social, and cultural values of rural areas to ensure sustainable development [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant achievements in rural revitalization during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, laying a solid foundation for the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1] Group 2 - Agricultural comprehensive production capacity has significantly improved due to increased investments in land protection, resource assurance, technological innovation, and industrial development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The agricultural sector is evolving to meet diverse consumer demands, transitioning from basic food security to providing high-quality and healthy food options [2] - The integration of technology in agriculture is enhancing automation and digitalization, making agriculture a complex industry linked to various sectors [2] Group 3 - The construction of livable and workable beautiful villages has seen effective results, with improved rural infrastructure and public services enhancing living conditions for residents [3] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to ensure that rural areas meet modern living standards, addressing the historical shortcomings in rural infrastructure and public services [3] Group 4 - The effectiveness of policies supporting agriculture, rural areas, and farmers has been enhanced, creating a comprehensive support system covering food security, industrial prosperity, rural construction, and public services [4] - The policy framework emphasizes the need for tailored and precise measures based on local conditions, promoting a systematic approach to rural revitalization [4] Group 5 - The modernization of agriculture and rural areas is crucial for the overall progress of Chinese-style modernization, with the year 2026 marking the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5] - There is a strategic focus on integrating rural revitalization within the broader context of new industrialization, information technology, and urbanization [5]

根据全国1%人口抽样调查结果，2025年我国人口规模巨大，劳动力资源丰富，人口素质进一步提升， 城镇化水平稳步提高，人口高质量发展持续推进，为经济社会高质量发展提供坚实的人口支撑。 一、人口规模巨大 四、城镇化水平稳步提高 2025年末，我国城镇常住人口为95380万人，比2024年增加1030万人，常住人口城镇化率达到67.89%， 比2024年提高0.89个百分点。我国新型城镇化稳步推进，城乡统筹协调发展将有利于国内需求的扩大和 人民生活水平的提高。 面对近年来我国人口变化的新情况，各地区各部门着力推动完善生育支持政策，建立实施育儿补贴制 度，大力发展普惠托育服务，不断扩大优质教育资源供给，健全覆盖全人群、全生命周期的人口服务体 系，实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略、以人为本的新型城镇化战略和健康中国行动。 （文章来源：经济日报） 二、劳动力资源丰富 2025年末，16岁至59岁人口85136万人，劳动力资源丰富。60岁及以上人口为32338万人，其中65岁以上 人口22365万人，分别比上年增加1307万人和342万人。老年人口中60岁至64岁低龄老年人口占比较大， 他们中的多数人健康状况较好、社会参与意 ...