Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a "structural bull" in 2025, followed by a potential "full bull" market in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The A-share bull market follows a "two-stage" pattern, with previous examples being the structural bull in 2013 followed by a full bull in 2015, and another structural bull from 2016 to 2017 followed by a full bull from 2020 to 2021 [1] - During the structural bull phase, institutional holdings and valuations of core sectors reach initial high points, leading to a qualitative change in the accumulation of institutional profit effects [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - The potential full bull market in 2026 is supported by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, a new phase in technology industry trends, and a positive cycle of incremental capital inflow [1] - The A-share market is expected to embrace global "competitive thinking," transitioning from "following" to "leading" in external circulation, which opens up transformation space for China's development [1] Group 3: Investment Focus - The leading investment themes for the 2026 bull market will focus on three main areas: the extension of AI industry trends from computing power to applications, breakthroughs in the robotics industry, and the revaluation of advanced manufacturing in energy storage and photovoltaics [1] - In the first half of 2026, cyclical and value sectors are likely to have relative advantages during market consolidation, with particular attention on excess returns in the basic chemicals and industrial metals sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) is set to play a crucial role in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on high-quality development and serving the modernization of socialism in China [1] Group 1: Market Stability and Quality Development - The SSE aims to enhance the intrinsic stability of the market by prioritizing market stability and establishing long-term mechanisms for stability [2] - There is a focus on cultivating high-quality listed companies and promoting actions that enhance returns, such as dividends and buybacks, to increase investment value [2] - The SSE will strengthen risk monitoring and management to ensure a robust market environment [2] Group 2: Capital Market as a Support for Economic Transformation - The SSE plans to serve as a hub for new productive forces by implementing reforms, particularly through the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2] - The SSE will promote policies that support strategic emerging industries, including advanced manufacturing and cutting-edge technologies [2] - A multi-layered product matrix and service system will be developed to support the transformation and upgrading of the real economy [2] Group 3: Regulatory Framework and Investor Protection - The SSE will adopt a "zero tolerance" approach to combat fraudulent activities and ensure strict entry standards for listings [3] - There will be an emphasis on enhancing regulatory capabilities through technology to improve investor protection and regulatory effectiveness [3] Group 4: Market Ecology and Internationalization - The SSE aims to create a new landscape for index-based investment, promoting rational, value, and long-term investment strategies to attract more long-term capital [3] - The SSE will expand institutional openness and cross-border investment channels, enhancing its global competitiveness and attractiveness [3] Group 5: Leadership and Governance - The SSE will strengthen the leadership of the Party in its operations, ensuring political integrity and accountability within the organization [3] - Continuous efforts will be made to enhance party discipline and governance, fostering a capable workforce [3] Group 6: Vision for High-Quality Development - The SSE is committed to integrating capital vitality with innovation, aligning market functions with national development goals, and accurately meeting the needs of the real economy [3]

深圳证券交易所扎根于粤港澳大湾区创新土壤，肩负助力打造国际科技创新中心、推动经济高质量发展 历史使命，"十四五"时期固本强基、砥砺前行，防风险、强监管、促高质量发展取得积极成效。展 望"十五五"，深入贯彻落实党中央决策部署，锚定2035年基本建成世界一流交易所远景目标，深交所将 强化使命担当、持续拼搏奋斗，在新征程上书写服务实体经济新篇章。 一是提升制度包容性适应性，打造一流上市公司群体。紧紧围绕发展新质生产力主线，持续推进建设优 质创新资本中心，以创业板改革为引领，进一步完善IPO、再融资、并购重组等制度机制。突出创业板 优质创新特色，健全全生命周期服务体系，加快培育更多"瞪羚"和"独角兽"企业，增强主板固本强基功 能，支持更多上市公司做优做强、追求卓越，积极服务战略新兴、未来产业发展和传统产业转型升级。 坚守监管主责主业，持续提升上市公司信息披露质量，坚决惩治重大违法违规行为，夯实资本市场高质 量发展基石。 二是促进投融资协调发展，持续增强市场内在稳定性。注重投资者回报，引导上市公司强化分红回购， 促进巩固"投资支持融资，融资回馈投资"的良好正向反馈。积极推动指数化投资和中长期资金有效配 置，加快发展ET ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to enter a development phase characterized by improved overall conditions and deepening structural features by 2026, driven by enhanced global liquidity and the acceleration of trends represented by AI [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment is anticipated to improve, with both global and domestic liquidity conditions providing a solid foundation for the market. The Federal Reserve is expected to accelerate interest rate cuts in 2026, reducing external constraints on the A-share market, while domestic monetary policy will continue to support high-quality economic development and industrial upgrades [1] - The AI industry is projected to transition from rapid penetration in 2025 to a phase of further performance realization and deep impact in 2026, with indications that growth momentum will not only sustain but may accelerate, leading to profound changes in corporate productivity and business models [1] Group 2 - The A-share market in 2026 is likely to exhibit significant structural characteristics driven by leading companies and fundamentals. This will manifest in three aspects: a highly structured market favoring a few technology growth leaders with real and sustainable performance, deep barriers to entry for leading companies, and a focus on fundamental-driven investment logic [2] - Leading companies are expected to achieve high certainty growth due to their critical roles in the global AI supply chain, leveraging technological barriers and customer loyalty [2] - The investment strategy for 2026 will hinge on accurately identifying and focusing on high-quality leading companies with stable industry positions, strong growth sustainability, and reasonable valuations, capitalizing on core opportunities within the structural market [2]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the equity market in 2025 was strong, with technology stocks, particularly those related to computing power, showing significant gains and becoming a key factor in fund investments [1] - In 2026, the impact of prices on nominal growth is expected to decrease, leading to a more certain recovery in China's nominal economic growth. Domestic consumption of goods is at a reasonable level, but service consumption remains notably low compared to the global average [1] - Fiscal spending is shifting from "investment in objects" to "investment in people," with resources increasingly directed towards education, healthcare, and social security, which are expected to stimulate consumption potential [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the equity market in 2026 suggests that overall opportunities outweigh risks, despite some overheating in certain sectors of AI-related technology stocks. The development of the AI industry in China is expected to accelerate due to the engineer dividend [2] - The AI industry is entering a phase of rapid growth, with many companies expected to enter a fast development period. There is a particular focus on domestic computing power and AI applications as high-probability investment directions [2] - The central economic work conference indicates that domestic demand growth will play a more significant role in economic construction, with consumer-related stocks showing potential for higher returns, although their performance has been average recently [2]

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of the international order and China's industrial innovation will support the performance of A-shares in 2026, with a market trend expected to rise initially and then stabilize [1] Group 1: Growth Areas - The AI sector is anticipated to enter an application realization phase, with opportunities in computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, leaning towards domestic solutions [1] - On the application side, focus areas include robotics, consumer electronics, intelligent driving, and software applications [1] Group 2: External Demand - The trend of going global and exposure to the U.S. market suggests attention to sectors such as home appliances, engineering machinery, commercial buses, power grid equipment, gaming, and globally priced resources like non-ferrous metals [1] Group 3: Cyclical Reversal - Attention should be given to sectors nearing improvement inflection points in supply and demand or those supported by policies, including chemicals, aquaculture, and new energy [1] Group 4: Market Policy Expectations - There is an expectation for capital market policies to further promote a "long-term" and "steady" market, enhancing capital market openness in the context of international monetary system restructuring and global capital reallocation [1] - This includes expanding the scope of foreign investment, encouraging the internationalization of Chinese securities firms, and supporting financing for innovative enterprises while optimizing mechanisms for long-term capital market entry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market profitability is expected to continue recovering in 2026, with liquidity remaining loose, shifting the core market driver from valuation to profitability [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traditional growth momentum and emerging industries are expected to work in tandem, leading to improved competition in traditional sectors and a rise in domestic inflation [1] - Fiscal policies are anticipated to create new demand in the domestic market, while the resonance of domestic and international technology industries will accelerate capital inflow into emerging sectors [1] Group 2: Industry Structure - The technology sector is projected to maintain absolute returns driven by profit growth, although the gap with consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors will gradually narrow [1] - Despite high profit growth in the technology sector due to expanding capital expenditure in artificial intelligence, the current valuation levels of the tech industry and the overall market show a significant disparity, making further valuation increases challenging [1] - Traditional sectors such as consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing are expected to see a gradual rebound in profit growth, with certain supply-demand balanced industries showing substantial profit elasticity [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There is increasing market and policy focus on new productive forces, with expectations that more emerging industries will be influenced by domestic policies in 2026, creating additional investment opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The chief strategist of Guojin Securities, Miao Yiling, predicts that the ROE of the A-share non-financial real estate sector will increase from 7.2% to 7.9% by 2026, indicating a shift from a "low return" zone to a higher profitability phase [1] - Miao suggests four main investment lines: industrial resources, equipment exports, consumer recovery, and non-bank financials, with a focus on tracking the demand for aluminum, copper, steel, and coal driven by power system construction [1] - In overseas markets, the U.S. and Europe are experiencing characteristics such as "investment stronger than consumption," profit differentiation among large and small enterprises, declining employment, and slowing wage growth, which provide a foundation for a sustained interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - On the domestic consumption front, the drag of housing prices on household spending has diminished, with an increase in foreign tourists due to trade settlement rate recovery and visa-free entry, leading to improved net profit margins in industries such as aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverages [2] - In terms of funding, there is a shift of household savings towards "fixed income+" investments, with pension and insurance funds continuously increasing their allocation to equities; the policy adjustments to lower insurance risk factors and relax brokerage leverage will resonate with the recovery of the non-bank sector and ROE [2]

Core Viewpoint - The chief strategist of Industrial Securities, Zhang Qiyao, indicates that the recovery of fundamentals is expected to support further market growth by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - By analyzing the performance of listed companies in the first three quarters of 2025, it is observed that revenue has stabilized, but gross margins are still declining, indicating that pricing remains a major drag on profitability [1] - Since the second half of 2025, policies promoting "de-involution" have led to a rebound in prices in resource sectors, which has improved gross margins [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - For 2026, nominal economic recovery and price increases are projected to be the most evident trends in the market [1] - According to the latest IMF forecast, China's nominal GDP growth rate in USD terms is expected to reach 6.45% in 2026, significantly higher than in 2025, with continued improvement in listed company profits [1] - The ongoing global liquidity easing is likely to result in a sustained upward trend in the A-share market in 2026 [1] Group 3: Industry Configuration - The market is currently in a structural recovery phase in 2025, with significant differentiation in industry prosperity, leading to a focus on eliminating weaker sectors [1] - As more industries enter the profitability recovery phase in 2026, the market allocation logic may shift from internal competition within sectors to identifying leading industries [1] - Key areas of focus include trends in the AI industry, the "price increase chain," the "overseas expansion chain," and the structural recovery of domestic demand [1]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy - In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with an expected fiscal deficit scale of no less than 4.06 trillion yuan, maintaining a deficit rate of at least 4% [3] - The new special bonds limit may increase from 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025 to nearly 5 trillion yuan in 2026 to support major project construction and real estate market adjustments [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy in 2026 is expected to remain moderately loose, with a CPI growth target set around 2%, allowing for traditional monetary policy operations like rate cuts [4] - Structural monetary policy operations will focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting technological innovation, and aiding small and medium enterprises [4] Group 3: Consumption and Income Growth - Expanding domestic demand, particularly through boosting consumption, is a primary task for 2026, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer purchasing power [5][6] - The "Urban and Rural Residents Income Growth Plan" is anticipated to be implemented, aiming to enhance the income capacity of residents and stimulate consumption [6] Group 4: Investment and Infrastructure - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to stabilize in 2026, with government investment playing a crucial role in driving this recovery [7] - Infrastructure investment will accelerate with the commencement of new major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The real estate market will focus on "de-stocking" as a primary task in 2026, with policies to optimize housing policies and increase support for home purchases [8] Group 6: Capital Market Reforms - The capital market will undergo comprehensive reforms to support technological innovation and improve the market's inclusivity and adaptability [9][10] - Measures will be taken to enhance investor experience and broaden channels for long-term capital investment [10] Group 7: Market Competition and Regulation - Efforts to address "involution" in competition will continue, with new regulations expected to enhance market access and fair competition [11] - The establishment of a national unified market construction regulation is anticipated to provide a framework for market entry and quality standards [11] Group 8: Technological and Industrial Innovation - The integration of technological and industrial innovation will be a key focus, with initiatives to promote AI applications across various sectors [12] - The expansion of international technology innovation centers in major regions will facilitate resource integration and innovation [12] Group 9: State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - A new round of state-owned enterprise reforms will focus on optimizing the layout of state-owned economies and enhancing modern enterprise systems [13][14] - The reforms will also emphasize strategic mergers and acquisitions to improve resource allocation efficiency [14] Group 10: Social Welfare and Employment - Policies aimed at improving employment and income distribution will be prioritized, with measures to support job retention and increase minimum wage standards [15]