2025年A股一路攀升，港股中的医药股和科技股也一度走出非常凌厉的行情。但步入四季度，港股上涨 势头有所减缓。那么，2026年的港股市场会如何走？ 最后，从资金面看，徐猛预判2026年南向资金有望持续流入港股。此外，港股是外资投向中国资产 的"桥头堡"，与海外流动性相关性较高。美联储2025年9月开启新一轮降息周期，多重信号显示2026年 宽松大趋势仍将继续。因此在中美宽松周期共振下，徐猛认为有望支撑港股流动性保持充沛。 （文章来源：证券时报） 徐猛认为，首先从动量特征来看，恒生科技指数、恒生指数等核心指数一年期以上的长期动量保持向上 趋势。当前的短期回调符合预期，从机构配置视角看，这提供了较好的介入机会。 其次，港股科技板块基本面驱动明确。"港股通科技汇聚国产AI核心资产，涵盖算力、模型、软件应用 和硬件终端等全产业链龙头企业；不仅如此，国内参与全球AI竞争的互联网大厂在资本开支、上下游 布局方面若有跟进动作，有望催化新一轮科技行情。"徐猛表示，DeepSeek的出现推动中国科技企业在 全球竞争优势的重新定位，信心和观念的重塑将推动国内外投资者重新审视中国的投资机会，因此，中 美科技股估值差有望收敛，估值中 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the gratitude of the China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) towards market participants and media for their support in the development of the financial futures market as 2026 approaches [1] - The year 2025 marks the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with China's economy showing continuous recovery and high-quality development, alongside significant advancements in the modern industrial system [1] - CFFEX, under the leadership of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, focuses on risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development, enhancing market resilience and vitality [1] Group 2 - The year 2026 will initiate the "15th Five-Year Plan," with CFFEX committed to implementing the guiding principles of Xi Jinping's thought and the decisions from the Central Economic Work Conference and Central Financial Work Conference [2] - CFFEX aims to enhance the quality of service to the real economy, balancing development and security while improving the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market [2] - The Securities Times plays a crucial role in the capital market by conveying policy messages, building market consensus, and serving participants, highlighting the importance of mainstream media in the financial sector [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the domestic economy is expected to show moderate growth in 2026, driven by a stable and progressive economic policy and positive changes in both internal and external economic environments [1] - The structure of domestic demand is anticipated to undergo significant changes, with a reduced impact from real estate and an increased emphasis on consumption, particularly in "investing in people" as a key direction for expanding domestic demand [1] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to alleviate the supply-demand imbalance, promoting a recovery in corporate profits and improvement in profit margins [1] Group 2 - The market is projected to shift from the extreme conditions of 2025 to a more balanced state in 2026, with the past two years characterized by liquidity chasing scarce assets [1] - In the context of a dual easing fiscal and monetary environment, the renminbi is expected to stabilize and recover in the short term, marking the beginning of value allocation and valuation recovery for Chinese assets [1] - Despite increased volatility in the US stock market, the long-term development trend of AI is accelerating, with significant focus on the commercialization of intelligent agents and investment opportunities in the broader technology sector remaining a key theme for 2026 [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market's decline in Q4 2025 was primarily influenced by liquidity contraction, but current valuations are considered to have high cost-effectiveness [2] - As an offshore market, Hong Kong stocks tend to exhibit greater resilience during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, with internet assets possessing both technology and cyclical attributes suitable for left-side positioning [2] - The long-term outlook for the equity market remains optimistic, with a recommendation for balanced investment strategies that consider individual risk preferences, highlighting structural opportunities in cyclical resources, export chains, and core assets [2]

我们将以更高站位强化党建引领，筑牢发展"根"与"魂"。把党的领导贯穿于交易所治理和市场监管各环 节，纵深推进全面从严治党，深化巡视整改成果运用，持续巩固拓展学习教育成果，驰而不息加强作风 建设，锻造忠诚干净担当的监管铁军，为事业发展提供坚强政治保障。 我们将以更实举措服务国家大局，彰显期货"力"与"为"。以服务实体经济、服务国家战略为出发点和落 脚点，紧密围绕"十五五"规划蓝图，持续提升市场运行质量和效率。稳步推进新品种研发，丰富产品体 系；深化"保险+期货""商储无忧"等模式，助力乡村全面振兴和保供稳价；拓展"绿色助企"试点，服务 绿色低碳转型；推动聚酯板块对外开放，研究探索更多品种引入境外投资者，提升重要大宗商品价格影 响力。 我们将以更严标准维护市场平稳运行，坚持监管"严"与"序"。坚守监管的政治性、人民性，强化全方 位、穿透式监管。加强重点品种风险监测预判，依法从严打击各类违法违规行为，规范程序化交易。压 实交割仓库责任，保障交割安全顺畅。强化科技赋能，提升"数智监管"能力，牢牢守住不发生系统性风 险的底线。 星霜荏苒，居诸不息；初心如磐，征程再启。值此2026年到来之际，郑州商品交易所向长期以来关心 ...

东方财富证券首席策略分析师陈果表示，2026年市场虽然可能有波动，但牛市仍在，整体策略可概括 为"踏浪逐牛"。潜在超预期因素包括中国企业盈利修复、AI（人工智能）产业进展及中美务实合作的可 能性。 他提醒，在风险层面，市场波动或将源于美国再通胀与AI商业化进程的博弈，投资者需灵活应对。战 略布局上，建议投资者把握逢低配置机会；若外部环境恶化（如AI发展叙事受挫），则可转向内需政 策加码的相关主线。 （文章来源：证券时报） 陈果表示，2025年面对房地产等内需老经济下行及外部关税挑战，中国股市仍走出"信心重估牛"。这得 益于多领域"DeepSeek事件"，让市场重新认识到中国新经济的活力与AI全球竞争力。 他表示，进入2026年，配置上建议把握当前确定性较高的两大方面：一是AI成长板块，二是受益于商 品价格回暖的周期板块。若外部环境变化，则内需板块机会或将上升。具体聚焦三大线索：一是AI泛 科技链（如半导体、海外算力、有色、电网设备、端侧AI等）；二是供需有望反转的周期行业（如海 风、储能、锂电设备、光伏、化工以及油/煤领域等）；三是出海优势方向（如工程机械、创新药）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, under the global challenge of debt issues, there are three main ways to address debt: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-driven debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-driven debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-driven debt reduction). Both AI and gold are expected to benefit from these paths, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a profound change in corporate profit structures. Despite weakness in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI, the net asset return on equity (ROE) of non-financial enterprises has stabilized over several quarters [1]. - The profit share of the eight major advanced manufacturing industries has increased to 38%, while the overseas revenue share of companies operating abroad has risen to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points. These factors are likely to drive the overall ROE of A-shares to recover after stabilization [1]. - Current valuation increases are relatively restrained, with limited overextension. If profits recover, there is still room for valuation improvement. Additionally, the migration of deposits from insurance and high-net-worth individuals will bring incremental capital [1]. Group 2: Investment Direction - The focus should be on industries with constrained supply and clear upward trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and is unlikely to see supply release in the short term. Other areas include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1]. - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for the spring rally, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1].

Core Viewpoint - The chief A-share strategist of CITIC Securities, Qiu Xiang, predicts that the profit growth rate of A-share companies will show a trend of low-to-high from 2026 onwards, influenced by the dynamics of the China-US relationship [1] Summary by Categories Market Phases - The market is expected to be divided into three phases based on the China-US trade agreement and the US midterm elections: 1. The first phase is from now until the trade agreement is finalized, where market growth is expected to slow down 2. The second phase is from the agreement's implementation until the midterm elections, where A-shares may experience sustained growth in a stable external environment 3. The third phase follows the midterm elections, where uncertainties from external disturbances may increase, prompting investors to refocus on domestic markets [1] Investment Opportunities and Sector Allocation - Four major themes are highlighted for investment opportunities: 1. The manufacturing sector's competition for global pricing power, with a focus on industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy, which can convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin increases 2. The globalization of Chinese enterprises, which significantly expands market capitalization and profit growth potential, with key industries including machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, power equipment, and military industry 3. The continuation of the technology trend, particularly in AI, which is expected to further expand its commercial applications and enhance the competitive advantages of Chinese companies, focusing on sectors like semiconductors, computing power, edge hardware, and AI applications 4. The potential for unexpected recovery in domestic demand, where despite general industry conditions being average, there exists significant room for recovery and valuation elasticity in domestic demand-sensitive sectors [1]

孟磊表示，当前A股市场的股权风险溢价仍高于历史均值，而其它新兴市场股市显著低于长期均值。中 期来看，增量的宏观政策、A股盈利增长加速叠加无风险利率下行、居民存款持续往股市"搬家"、长线 资金持续净流入股市以及市值管理改革的持续推进，将助力A股市场估值进一步上行。 （文章来源：证券时报） 展望2026年，可重点关注四大投资主题：一是科技自立自强主线；二是消费板块，全年企业盈利提速有 望逐步带动居民收入与销售费用提升，建议于下半年择时布局；三是"反内卷"相关板块；四是中国企业 出海与全球竞争力提升赛道。 他表示，在风格配置方面，由于市场中期展望向好，"成长"风格可能跑赢"价值"风格。随着"反内卷"的 持续推进，推动PPI跌幅收窄且工业企业利润提速，"周期"风格有望跑赢"防御"风格，大小盘板块会在 2026年维持一个相对均衡的态势。 瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊展望，2026年，名义GDP（国内生产总值）增速提升、PPI（工业生 产者出厂价格指数）跌幅收窄将推动企业营收增长；叠加支持政策落地与"反内卷"进程深化带动利润率 修复，预计全部A股公司盈利增速有望进一步攀升至8%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to perform positively in 2025, driven by the enhancement of China's economic strength, technological capabilities, and overall national power [1] Industry Insights - Three key recommendations for industry sector allocation in 2025 include: 1. Focus on industries with high overseas business exposure, such as electronics, home appliances, automobiles, and power equipment, as indicated by the third-quarter reports and industry data showing a correlation with export strength [1] 2. As the economic cycle recovers, cyclical stocks are likely to attract incremental capital in the later stages of a bull market due to inflation being a lagging indicator [1] 3. Monitor industries with potential bottom reversals, including food and beverage, agriculture, social services, and pharmaceuticals, which offer high odds of recovery [1] Thematic Investment Opportunities - Emphasis on breakthroughs in frontier technologies and industrial transformations, such as AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center), embodied intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, controllable nuclear fusion, and quantum computing [1] Policy Recommendations - Suggestions to enhance the capital market functions that coordinate investment and financing include improving flexibility and confidentiality, diversifying listing standards, optimizing investor structure, building a technology finance ecosystem, and deepening integration with Hong Kong and international collaboration [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the macroeconomic environment in China is expected to remain stable in 2026, but market volatility may increase, making it difficult to replicate the "steady happiness" market of 2025 [1] - The investment strategy suggested includes balancing asset allocation based on individual risk preferences, with a focus on dividend assets, technology, and domestic demand sectors for structural opportunities [1] Group 2 - For the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, a fluctuating operation with a gradually rising central tendency is anticipated in 2026, due to limited support from economic growth for corporate profits and market valuations moving away from significantly undervalued levels [2] - The support logic for market reversal since late September 2024 remains solid, with the capital market playing a more important role in social financing and long-term funds, such as state-owned insurance, buffering market downturn risks [2] - Three key investment directions for 2026 are highlighted: dividend assets for higher certainty in returns, technology sector focused on AI with rapid penetration despite valuation disputes, and the domestic demand sector which has been undervalued and requires time for market recognition [2]