Group 1 - The business failure rate in Canada increased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.0% in July, reversing the previous month's decline, while the business opening rate remained stable at 5.0% [1] - There is a significant structural divide in business activity, with industries heavily reliant on U.S. demand experiencing a sharp contraction, particularly in mining, oil and gas extraction, and manufacturing, which saw a year-on-year decline of 1.7% [1] - The recent announcement by U.S. President Trump to impose an additional 10% tariff on Canadian goods has heightened tensions in the U.S.-Canada trade relationship, which is the largest bilateral trade relationship globally [1] Group 2 - The market widely anticipates that the Bank of Canada will lower its policy interest rate this week due to overall economic weakness, although core inflation's stickiness may complicate the decision [2] - Some analysts, like RSM's chief economist Joe Brusuelas, predict that the Bank of Canada will maintain the current policy rate at 2.5%, citing core CPI hovering around 3% [2] - Canadian National Bank's wealth management economist Ethan Currie expects a 25 basis point rate cut to 2.25% this week, with another cut to 2.0% in December, indicating a need for a moderately accommodative policy stance due to accumulated economic weakness [3]

天然气开发方面，内蒙古坚持"提质增效"，今年以来推动苏里格气田、大牛地气田、东胜气田持续高效 开发，分别生产天然气218.5亿立方米、8.4亿立方米、12.5亿立方米，产能实现接续、平稳、高效释 放。前三季度，内蒙古超六成的天然气输送至"京津冀"等地区。（侯倩） 据内蒙古自治区能源局消息，今年前三季度，全区生产原油250万吨，同比增长4.2%，生产天然气239.4 亿立方米，同比持平，油气产量实现稳中有升。 今年以来，内蒙古原油开发坚持"老油田稳产、新区块上产"，推动二连油田、海拉尔油田等老油田稳 产，鼓励支持企业采用先进生产技术有效实施"控递减"，充分挖掘二连盆地、海拉尔盆地原油生产潜 力，同时，加快推动巴彦油田勘探开发步伐，努力实现产能接替，今年前三季度巴彦油田生产原油90.3 万吨，同比增长20%，形成"以稳促增、以新补老"的良性发展格局。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 策略师表示，当前市场对美联储进一步宽松的预期已较为充分定价，而欧洲央行维持2%关键利率不变 的立场符合主流判断。然而，"除非美国发布更多负面经济数据，特别是那些指向劳动力市场进一步恶 化的指标，否则欧元不太可能获得新的动能"。 裕信仅对欧元兑美元持"适度看好"立场。 新华财经北京10月29日电裕信银行（UniCredit）策略师在最新报告中指出，尽管市场普遍预期美联储将 于本周再度降息，但若欧洲央行维持利率不变，欧元兑美元亦不太可能出现显著上涨。 报告称，欧洲央行本次货币政策会议应会"相对平淡无奇"，决策层可能有意避免释放重大政策信号，直 至12月发布新一轮宏观经济预测。在此背景下，即便美欧货币政策路径出现短期分化，欧元的上行空间 仍将受限。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of KfW, Dirk Schumacher, indicates that despite escalating trade tensions and a stronger euro posing external risks, they are not sufficient to impact the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision this week [1]. Economic Outlook - Trade conflicts with the U.S. remain a primary source of uncertainty, but there is currently no evidence suggesting they have triggered a severe economic recession or materially impacted the inflation trajectory [1]. - The appreciation of the euro is expected to suppress future price pressures and further weaken the competitiveness of European export companies [1]. Inflation Concerns - There are persistent concerns regarding the inflation outlook, with service sector inflation stubbornly remaining around 3%, significantly above the ECB's medium-term target of 2%, which is detrimental to the normalization of overall inflation dynamics [1]. ECB Policy Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the ECB will maintain its key interest rate at 2% during the monetary policy meeting on October 31, aligning with recent economic data [1]. - In August, the Eurozone's overall CPI year-on-year recorded 2.1%, with core CPI at 2.3%. Although service sector inflation has decreased from a peak of 4.0% in April, it remains elevated at 3.1% [1]. Decision-Making Framework - Schumacher reiterates that unless clear signals of economic recession emerge, there is a lack of urgency among most ECB decision-makers for further rate cuts. The current policy path will continue to focus on data dependency and closely assess the transmission effects of external shocks on growth and price stability [1].

新华财经北京10月29日电 Credit Mutuel Asset Management 策略师 Francois Rimeu 指出，受美国联邦政府 持续关门影响，关键经济数据发布受限，美联储在本周的货币政策会议上可能采取更为审慎的立场。 市场目前定价显示，10月降息25个基点的概率接近100%，但对12月及2026年政策路径的预期仍存在较 大分歧。 （文章来源：新华财经） 里莫进一步分析称，美国长期通胀预期保持良好锚定，即便劳动力市场出现疲软迹象，也不太可能对物 价构成上行压力。因此，本次会议的重点或将落在美联储对经济前景的附带评论上，而非利率调整本 身。 由于政府停摆导致部分官方数据（如非农就业、零售销售等）延迟或缺失，政策制定者可能更依赖高频 替代指标和企业调查数据。在此背景下，里莫认为，美联储或将避免释放过于明确的后续宽松信号，直 至数据环境改善。 里莫表示，尽管市场普遍预期美联储将降息25个基点，但决策层或将强调经济基本面仍具韧性。他预 计，美联储主席鲍威尔在会后声明及新闻发布会上将称"增长稳健，劳动力市场基本平衡，但面临温和 的下行风险"。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The gold market is likely entering a phase of wide-ranging high-level fluctuations, requiring time to digest emotional impacts [1] - Weakening driving factors have led to continuous adjustments in precious metals after significant price increases [2] - The next potential upward movement in gold prices may not occur until 2026, following a period of consolidation [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Hai Tong Futures indicates that substantial profit-taking is driving the decline in precious metal prices, with a notable drop in Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures positions suggesting many long positions are exiting [1] - The recent U.S. CPI data being lower than expected has marginally increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts, contributing to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] - The overall sentiment in the market is weak, with expectations of a prolonged period of high-level fluctuations in gold prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures notes that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and lack of economic data guidance are impacting market sentiment [2] - The increase in global central bank gold purchases reflects a growing recognition of gold as a safe-haven asset amid deteriorating fiscal conditions and rising distrust in the financial system [2] - The ADP's new weekly employment data indicates a modest increase in private sector jobs, but the ongoing government shutdown continues to create uncertainty [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen highlights that gold prices may have reached a peak this year, with a critical support level at $3,846 per ounce [3] - Trade Nation's David Morrison points out that recent technical indicators suggest a risk of short-term declines in gold prices, with a need for prices to rise above $4,100 per ounce to establish a new bullish momentum [3]

Core Insights - Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 377,644 thousand liters to 10,027,202 thousand liters as of the week ending October 25 [1] - Gasoline inventory in Japan fell by 16,721 thousand liters to 1,603,954 thousand liters compared to the previous week [1] - Kerosene inventory dropped by 91,715 thousand liters to 2,742,806 thousand liters from the prior week [1] - The average operating rate of Japanese refineries increased to 91.2%, up from 86.2% the previous week [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Yunnan Energy Investment Group has officially commenced the construction of the 350MW salt cavern compressed air energy storage demonstration project in Anning City, which aims to support the national "dual carbon" goals and enhance the stability of the power grid in high-altitude regions [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The total investment for the project is 1.872 billion yuan, making it a key initiative for Yunnan Province to develop a new power system [1]. - The project will utilize retired salt caverns (An1-An4) as energy storage mediums, with a designed operating pressure of 7MPa-9MPa and a construction scale of 350MW/1750MWh [1]. - The energy storage system is designed to operate on a "low valley storage, high peak release" principle, allowing for flexible energy regulation [1]. Group 2: Technical Specifications - The project will have an annual utilization of at least 1,300 hours, with an expected annual power generation of 465 million kilowatt-hours [1]. - The system can store up to 1.75 million kilowatt-hours of electricity, with a storage duration of 8 hours and an average turnover of 260 cycles per year [1]. - The construction includes an air compression system, turbine power generation system, heat exchange system, and a 220kV booster station, integrating into the Yunnan power grid [2]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - The project is a critical component of Yunnan Energy Investment Group's "8+X" energy industry system, promoting the integration of green electricity and energy storage [2]. - It addresses the technical challenges of high-altitude environments by collaborating with universities and research institutions to develop a specialized energy storage system [2]. - The implementation of this project is expected to stabilize fluctuations in renewable energy generation and enhance the grid's capacity to accept large-scale green electricity [2]. Group 4: Local Government Support - The Anning City government has committed to optimizing the business environment and providing excellent service to support the project's construction [3].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "credit cockroaches" in the U.S. economy signals underlying vulnerabilities, particularly in high-leverage sectors, necessitating a reassessment of investment portfolios and emphasizing the importance of diversification as a risk mitigation strategy [1] Group 1: Recent Events and Implications - The bankruptcy of Tricolor, a subprime lender, and First Brands, an auto parts giant with liabilities of approximately $50 billion and assets under $10 billion, highlights fraudulent practices and raises concerns about the credit environment [2] - Several regional banks have also reported bad debts due to fraudulent commercial loans, indicating a pattern of inadequate due diligence during economic booms [3] Group 2: Impact on Financial Markets - Despite some banks reporting better-than-expected earnings, concerns over asset quality have led to underperformance of bank stocks, lagging behind the broader U.S. market by over 470 basis points since early October [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - While the fraudulent cases are isolated, the exposure of U.S. non-deposit financial institutions (NDFIs) to these risks has increased, with their loans now accounting for less than 10% of total bank loans, up over 100% in the past decade [5] - A cautious approach is advised for banks with high exposure to NDFIs, while maintaining an optimistic outlook on U.S. equities, particularly in sectors like technology, communications, and healthcare [5] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - Emphasis on high-quality assets in bond investments, favoring investment-grade corporate bonds, as rising yield spreads present tactical opportunities [6] - Recommendations include investing in UK government bonds and emerging market local currency bonds, which are expected to have good upside potential [6] Group 5: Preventive Measures - The appearance of "credit cockroaches" underscores the need for preventive measures in investment portfolios, focusing on asset quality and defensive growth sectors [7] - A diversified investment portfolio across industries, regions, and asset classes is recommended to navigate potential market turbulence [7]

Thieliant指出，这一通胀动向降低了澳洲联储进一步放松货币政策的可能性。他预计，澳洲联储在下周 即将召开的货币政策会议上"几乎肯定"将维持当前政策利率不变。 新华财经北京10月29日电凯投宏观（Capital Economics）分析师Marcel Thieliant称，澳大利亚第三季度 潜在通胀表现强劲，修正后的平均消费者价格指数（CPI）环比增速由第二季度的0.6%上升至1.0%。该 数据已超过澳洲联储主席米歇尔·布洛克（Michele Bullock）此前设定的"显著上行意外"阈值——即环比 增幅不低于0.9%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 此外，Thieliant补充称："随着经济活动现已反弹，当前风险明显偏向于降息幅度小于我们目前预估的 两次25个基点降息。"此番表态暗示，市场此前对年内多次降息的预期可能过于乐观。 ...