随着圣诞节假期来临，机构对明年美股市场的预测基本发布完毕。华尔街对2026年标普500指数的目标 预测集中在7000–8100点，平均目标接近7500点，潜在涨幅约9%，驱动逻辑以企业盈利增长、美联储降 息与人工智能（AI）技术扩散为主，同时提醒需警惕衰退、估值回调与政策波动风险。与此同时，分 析师继续看好信息技术、能源和通信服务行业。当然，华尔街也提示了诸多风险，包括美国经济下行风 险、美国中期选举、估值泡沫争议等。 华尔街的眼光 哪些板块值得关注 随着年末临近，分析师们对标普500指数成分股的评级更新出炉，最乐观和最悲观的板块分别是哪些？ 根据财经数据供应商FactSet向第一财经记者提供的报告，针对标普500指数成分股的评级共计12696份。 其中，买入评级占比57.5%，持有评级占比37.7%，卖出评级占比4.8%。买入评级的占比高于其5年均值 55.5%；与之相对，持有评级占比低于5年均值38.8%，卖出评级占比也低于5年均值5.7%。 微软、亚马逊和Meta跻身标普500指数成分股中买入评级占比最高占比最高的十家公司。 奥本海默预计明年标普500指数将挑战8100点，这也是华尔街最乐观的目标，核心 ...

*三大股指齐升，道指涨近300点； *中长期美债收益率回落，2年期美债逼近3.50%； *纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌近0.1%。 因假日原因，周三美股提前收盘。美国初请失业金数据好于预期，必需消费品与房地产板块联袂走强， 推动美股三大股指集体收涨录得五连阳。 截至收盘，道指涨288.75点，涨幅0.60%，报48731.16点，纳指涨0.22%，报23613.31点，标普500指数涨 0.32%，报6932.05点。道指与标普500指数双双刷新收盘历史纪录。道琼斯市场数据显示，这是自2013 年以来，标普500指数首次在平安夜创下收盘新高。 【热门股表现】 个股方面，英特尔跌0.5%。据报道，英伟达将不会继续推进采用英特尔18A制程工艺的芯片生产测试。 报道还称，英伟达今年9月向英特尔注资50亿美元时，并未与其达成相关的量产承诺。英伟达股价下跌 0.3%。 明星科技股普涨，甲骨文涨1.1%，苹果涨0.5%，Meta涨0.4%，微软涨0.2%，亚马逊涨0.1%，谷歌和特 斯拉平盘。 耐克涨4.6%，周二提交的监管文件显示，苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆・库克购入了价值300万美元的股 票。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数微跌0.1% ...

Group 1 - The core concern for American workers in 2025 is employment stability, which has risen to the second position in importance, following the ability to cover monthly living expenses [3] - The disconnect between macroeconomic data and individual experiences is highlighted, as GDP grew by 4.3% in Q3, yet many individuals feel economic pressure due to high inflation and rising costs [3][4] - The unemployment rate in November reached 4.6%, the highest in four years, with new job creation concentrated in the healthcare sector [5] Group 2 - U.S. household debt reached a record high of $18.6 trillion in Q3 2025, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [6] - The largest portion of household debt is mortgage debt, totaling $13.07 trillion, while credit card debt stands at $1.23 trillion and auto loans at $1.66 trillion [6] - The credit market is exhibiting "K-shaped" economic divergence, where high-income groups benefit from a booming stock market, while low-income families face significant financial pressures [7]

本文字数：1432，阅读时长大约2分钟 2025.12.25 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 因假日原因，周三美股提前收盘。美国初请失业金数据好于预期，必需消费品与房地产板块联袂走强， 推动美股三大股指集体收涨录得五连阳。 截至收盘，道指涨288.75点，涨幅0.60%，报48731.16点，纳指涨0.22%，报23613.31点，标普500指数涨 0.32%，报6932.05点。道指与标普500指数双双刷新收盘历史纪录。道琼斯市场数据显示，这是自2013 年以来，标普500指数首次在平安夜创下收盘新高。 美国抵押贷款银行家协会MBA表示，截至12月19日当周，抵押贷款申请数量下降5%，其中，再融资贷 款申请数量下降6%。"尽管抵押贷款利率小幅下行，但上周抵押贷款申请总量仍出现下滑。我们预计， 就业市场走软、通胀居高难下、房屋库存高企以及抵押贷款利率企稳的趋势，将延续至新的一年。"协 会首席经济学家弗拉托尼（Mike Fratantoni）表示。 美国商务部周二公布的三季度国内生产总值（GDP）增长4.3%，远超3.2%的市场普遍预期。这份因政 府停摆而延迟发布的报告，起初令交易员下调了对明年初降息的预期。不过，芝 ...

2025.12.25 关税和非关税壁垒等表面上是增加了国际经贸的成本，其本质则是通过关税等提高国际经贸的相对价格 和信任成本，即关税等真正的要义是通过抬高国别贸易的相对价格，来重构重塑国际经贸的安全和信任 关系，从而加速国际产业链生态链的重塑重构。 当前安全和互信，正成为经济全球化的一个临界约束条件。 这一方面反映在新冠疫情发生之后，美国等发达国家对供应链产业链稳定与安全的诉求提升；另一方面 是俄乌冲突以来，欧美对俄罗斯离岸资产的行动，增加了各国对离岸资产安全性和信任感的动摇；此 外，还有一个技术成因，即数字技术、AI技术等的快速发展，推动经济社会结构重新匹配和搭建，放 大了人们对信用货币的不信任感。 本文字数：1830，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 一财评论员 贵金属又起涨势，继续其大牛市行程。 连日来金银价格双双上涨，迭创历史新高。截至23日，现货白银最高达每盎司71.58美元，全年暴涨 139%；现货黄金最高涨至每盎司4499.85美元，全年上涨68%，两者均创下自1979年以来的最佳年度表 现；同时，国际铜价今年也同步刷新历史高点，23日伦敦铜价每吨最高冲至12159.50美元。 关于今年以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tim Cook, CEO of Apple and board member of Nike, has begun to increase his stake in Nike, which has led to a significant rise in Nike's stock price by over 5% on December 24 [2][4]. Group 1: Stock Purchase Details - Tim Cook purchased approximately 50,000 shares of Nike stock for about $2.95 million, at an average price of $58.97 per share [3][4]. - Following this purchase, Cook's total holdings in Nike have reached 105,480 shares, valued at over $6.04 million based on the closing price [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reaction and Implications - Cook's stock purchase is seen as a strong signal of confidence in Nike's future value, as it marks the first time he has used personal funds to buy Nike shares [4]. - The day before Cook's purchase, another board member, Robert Swan, also bought Nike shares, indicating a trend among executives to invest in the company amid a period of market pressure [4]. - Analysts suggest that these insider purchases aim to demonstrate management's commitment to the company's interests and may help boost market confidence, implying that Nike's stock price could be nearing its bottom [4].

Core Viewpoint - The metal market is experiencing a significant price surge, with various metals reaching historical highs due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions, and supply-demand dynamics [2][4][6]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 24, 2023, gold reached a peak of $4,525.83 per ounce, while silver hit $72.701 per ounce, and copper reached $12,282 per ton [2][4][5]. - Domestic futures for gold and silver also saw significant increases, with gold futures peaking at 1,022.88 yuan per gram and silver at 17,671 yuan per kilogram [2][5]. - Platinum and palladium futures also surged, with platinum reaching 675.65 yuan per gram and palladium at 578.45 yuan per gram [2][5]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The price increases are attributed to a combination of a declining interest rate environment, geopolitical tensions, and structural changes in supply and demand [2][6]. - Analysts suggest that the weakening of the dollar and the expansion of U.S. government debt are contributing to the rise in metal prices, as metals are typically priced in dollars [6][7]. - The demand for metals is also being driven by the growth of the AI industry, which requires substantial amounts of metals for infrastructure development [6][7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints and rising demand are creating a favorable environment for price increases, particularly for copper, which is experiencing a supply crisis [8][9]. - The global inventory of many base metals is at historically low levels, which reduces the market's ability to respond to supply-demand shocks [8]. - Specific factors affecting copper prices include anticipated supply shortages and increased demand from the AI sector, as well as geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the upward trend in metal prices is likely to continue, although there may be short-term volatility due to profit-taking and market corrections [10][11]. - The copper market, in particular, is expected to face pressures from high prices and weak demand, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to structural supply-demand imbalances [12]. - The market is advised to remain cautious of potential corrections, especially if macroeconomic conditions change, such as shifts in interest rate expectations [11][12].

耐克涨近3%，苹果CEO库克斥资近300万美元买入5万股耐克股票。 12月24日，美股三大指数小幅低开，道指跌0.09%，纳指跌0.03%，标普500指数跌0.02%。 英特尔跌超3%，报道称英伟达已暂停对英特尔18A制程工艺的测试。 中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.3%。 编辑丨瑜见 德纳维制药涨38%，赛诺菲以每股15.5美元的现金价格收购该公司的所有流通股。 12月25日（星期四）为美国圣诞节假期，12月24日（星期三）美股提前3小时，即于北京时间25日2点收 盘；12月25日全天休市。 ...

央行一次性个人信用修复政策落地后，社交平台迅速掀起讨论热潮。 近两日，在小红书、微博上，大量网友晒出自己的征信报告，希望通过在线求助的方式，求广大网友帮 忙鉴定自己的逾期记录是否能享受到这波政策利好。 2025.12.24 本文字数：3566，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 |第一财经 杜川 第一财经记者浏览发现，网友晒出的征信报告情况各不相同。比如，有的逾期记录年份太久，超出了政 策限定的时间范围；有的单笔逾期金额直接突破1万元限定标准；也有网友非常幸运，逾期情况完全符 合此次政策的适用条件。 诸多讨论中，几个核心问题被反复提及，即自己到底符不符合政策的修复条件？"单笔逾期1万元以 下"的界定标准是什么？分期贷款的逾期又该怎么认定？怎么才算足额偿还逾期债务？ 社交平台晒征信求鉴定 梳理来看，网友们的核心关切主要集中在政策适用细节与实操问题两大方面。 从政策规定的逾期条件看，逾期信息需同时满足三项核心要求：一是时间范围，逾期信息产生于2020年 1月1日至2025年12月31日期间；二是金额限制，单笔逾期金额不超过1万元人民币；三是还款时限，个 人需于2026年3月31日（含）前足额偿还逾期债务。满足上述条件的，央 ...

Core Viewpoint - The only fund primarily investing in silver futures, Guotou Silver LOF, has seen significant price increases, with a recent closing price of 3.116 yuan, reaching a daily limit up [1]. Group 1: Fund Performance - Guotou Silver LOF's market performance includes a closing price of 3.116 yuan, an increase of 9.99% from the previous close of 2.833 yuan [2]. - The fund's trading volume reached 207.94 million shares, with a turnover rate of 7.99% and a total transaction value of 648 million yuan [2]. - The fund's net asset value (NAV) is significantly lower than its market price, indicating a high premium rate of 68.19% [2]. Group 2: Investor Alerts - Guotou Silver LOF announced that due to the high market price exceeding the NAV, it will suspend trading on December 25, 2025, from the market opening until 10:30 AM to protect investors [3]. - The fund's A-class share subscription limit is set at 500.00 yuan, with future adjustments anticipated due to the unsustainable high premium rates [3]. - Other funds, such as Huatai-PineBridge and Guotai Fund, have also issued warnings regarding high premium rates on their respective products, indicating a broader trend in the market [5][6].