采购经理人指数(PMI)的荣枯线是50。 PMI>50：通常表示经济活动扩张 PMI=50：表示经济活动持平 PMI<50：通常表示经济活动收缩 ...

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, reported a holding of 16,099.83 tons of silver as of January 7, a decrease of 18.33 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On January 7, the spot silver price closed at $78.17 per ounce, down 3.74%, with an intraday high of $82.73 and a low of $76.32 [1] Group 2 - Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will undergo a one-week annual rebalancing from January 9 to 15, 2026, which will trigger over $14 billion in precious metal sell-offs [3] - The weight of silver in the index will be significantly reduced from 9.6% to 3.94%, forcing funds and ETFs tracking the index to sell large amounts of silver positions [3] - Deutsche Bank and TD Securities estimate that between $7.1 billion and $7.7 billion in silver sell-offs will occur in the next two weeks, equivalent to 13% of the total open interest in the COMEX silver market [3]

| 1月8日 | 收盘价（元/千克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 18450 | -5.90% | 2142360 | 281631 | 美国务卿称下周将与丹麦举行会晤，讨论格陵兰岛议题。 美国12月ADP就业人数增加4.1万人，低于市场预期的中值4.7万人。 【白银期货最新行情】 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 数据显示，1月8日上海白银现货价格报价19420元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（18450元/千克）升水 970元/千克。 彭博大宗商品指数(BCOM)将进行为期一周的年度再平衡调整（2026年1月9日至15日）。这场牵动全球 大宗商品市场神经的指数权重调整，将令超过140亿美元的贵金属卖盘涌入市场。根据彭博公布的2026 年权重配置，白银权重将从目前市场权重的9.6%大幅下调至3.94%，意味着追踪该指数的基金和ETF将 被迫抛售大量白银头寸。 泽连斯基称有望在2026年上半年结束俄乌冲突。 【机构观点】 金属全面下撤，市场情绪降温，沪银冲高回落。沪银溢价收敛至1400元/克，国内有所降温 ...

据英国《每日电讯报》等媒体报道，丹麦国防部当地时间7日证实，根据军事规定，若美国武力夺取格 陵兰岛，丹麦士兵可以"先开枪再请示"。 报道援引丹麦《贝林时报》称，这项1952年制定的军事规定显示，一旦发生"入侵行为"，"即使相关指 挥官尚不知晓宣战或战争状态，被攻击部队也必须立即投入战斗，无需等待或寻求命令"。当被问及此 事时，丹麦国防部给出回应，"关于在国家受到攻击和战争期间采取军事防御预防措施的命令仍然有 效"。 地区 仓库 期货 增减 上海 中储吴淞 88658 0 外运华东虹桥 74326 -1133 中工美供应链 425452 87940 合计 588436 86807 广东 深圳威豹 49211 -2589 总计 637647 84218 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货1月8日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计637647千克，今日仓单较上一日 增加84218千克。 沪银主力维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报19103元/千克，最高触及19443元/千克，最低触及18313 元/千克，截止收盘报18450元/千克，下跌5.90%。 【基本面消息】 ...

消息面 光大期货： 本周尿素企业库存小幅增加0.29%，尿素基本面近期变化不大，期货市场煤炭走强对尿素期价提供强力支撑，再加上后续印标最终结果、出口以 及国内宏观等方面仍有题材发酵可能，预计短期尿素期货价格继续偏强运行。考虑到保供稳价导向，盘面连续多日上涨后上方空间已较为有限， 关注主力合约上方整数关卡压力位。另需关注现货市场成交氛围、印标最终结果、期货市场相关品种走势。 国信期货： 据卓创资讯（301299），尿素市场整体呈现供应宽松格局，当前尿素生产企业开工率处于近年的高位区间运行；需求端方面，农业需求适量跟 进，淡季储备按部就班推进；工业需求支撑乏力，市场以零星补货为主。当前尿素期货主力合约UR2605价格居于低位区间波动，处于下方有成本 支撑，而上方由于供应比较宽松造成的压力的格局。操作上建议以震荡交易思路为主。 1月7日，尿素前20名期货公司(全月份合约加总)多单持仓21.55万手，空单持仓24.24万手，多空比0.89。净持仓为-2.69万手，相较上日减少690手。 机构观点 1月8日，山东联盟尿素小颗粒报价上调10元/吨至1730-1760元/吨；江苏恒盛中颗粒尿素参考报价1720元/吨，该厂尿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lead futures market in Shanghai experienced a significant drop, with the main contract falling to a low of 17,265.00 yuan, reflecting a decline of 2.01% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures expects lead prices to remain high in the short term due to limited supply pressure and low inventory supporting prices [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures indicates that there is still downward pressure on lead prices, citing increased tax costs for recycled lead and ongoing maintenance at primary lead delivery brands [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply situation is mixed, with primary lead smelters both reducing and resuming production, leading to a slight increase in January output, while recycled lead smelters are reducing production [2] - The consumption remains weak during the off-season, and after the rise in lead prices, spot purchasing has weakened, with long-term purchases being the primary focus [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Positioning - There was a significant inflow of funds into the Shanghai lead market, amounting to 280 million yuan, with an increase in weighted positions by 15,700 contracts to 116,800 contracts [2] - The market is closely monitoring the pressure from inventory accumulation and the impact of high prices on downstream consumption, which remains cautious [2]

Macro Messages - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains, with a combination of "easing expectations + weak dollar" continuing to support the recovery channel [1] - Increased risk aversion is noted due to factors such as U.S. debt expansion, de-dollarization, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and the reshaping of economic patterns, enhancing the strategic allocation value of gold [1] - Central bank gold purchases are seen as a necessary step for the internationalization of the Renminbi, with gold expected to remain a long-term asset allocation choice amid a damaged U.S. credit system and global monetary system restructuring [1] Institutional Views - The main contract performance shows that Shanghai gold fell by 0.31% to 1002.2, while Shanghai silver dropped by 2.99% to 19020; platinum decreased by 2.47% to 598.5, and palladium increased by 1.71% to 475.95 [1] - As of the end of December, China's gold reserves stood at 74.15 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces, marking the 14th consecutive month of growth [1] - The U.S. ISM services PMI index rose by 1.8 points to 54.4 in December 2025, the highest level since October 2024, while the ADP employment figure increased by 41,000, below the expected increase of 47,000 [1]

Group 1 - The domestic copper futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 103,200.00 CNY/ton and showing a decline of 2.96% [1] - The market sentiment is neutral to slightly positive due to moderate domestic policy stimulus and weak U.S. economic data, while supply concerns from mining operations in Chile continue to support copper prices [1] - Short-term copper price expectations are for a range of 100,800-104,000 CNY/ton for the Shanghai copper main contract and 12,600-13,100 USD/ton for London copper [1] Group 2 - Guoxin Futures suggests that the short-term pullback in copper prices may be limited, with a medium to long-term outlook remaining strong, recommending investors to manage their positions carefully [2]

2026年1月7日，海外成交氧化铝3万吨，成交价格$310/mt FOB西澳，2月船期；上笔成交于1月5日，$301/mt FOB东澳或$305/mt FOB西澳，货源 由卖家选择，3月船期。 截至1月6日，冶金级氧化铝现货日均价2666.9元/吨，较上月同期跌幅5%，较去年同期跌幅52.59%。 据阿拉丁(ALD)了解，因氧化铝价格大幅下跌且预期仍将处于阴跌通道，内陆氧化铝厂亏损程度加剧。2026年1月，山西地区氧化铝厂国产矿月度 长单采购价格继续下调，幅度30元/吨左右。 1月8日，氧化铝期货盘中低位震荡运行为主，截至发稿主力合约大幅走低2.13%，报2847.0元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 机构观点 银河期货：总体看，氧化铝基本面变动有限，在氧化铝产能没有实质性减产同时新投产能在即的情况下，基本面给与的上涨支撑十分有限。氧化 铝的快速反弹更多是对政策预期的情绪化结果，若政策短期内无更多实质性影响兑现，价格回归基本面运行逻辑后仍将承压运行为主，谨慎追 涨。 瑞达期货（002961）：基本面原料端，土矿价格偏稳运行，港口库存小幅回升。供给端，当前氧化铝产业产能开工保持偏高位运行，供给库存偏 多，后续在政策的指引 ...

新湖期货表示，多晶硅价格基本面支撑有限，但仍有政策预期与自律挺价托底。近期可交割资源偏紧， 消息面仍有扰动，交易所风控措施影响，行情多震荡；主力合约流动性有限，资金与政策扰动大，建议 观望为主。中长期需跟踪交易所措施及行业政策变化，可关注5-6反套。 国投安信期货指出，多晶硅市场资金持续流出。现货层面，产业链因白银辅料成本走高，元旦后光伏下 游环节同步提价，多晶硅环节虽维持累库，但企业报价多在6万/吨上方，部分高价成交。期货情绪降 温，走势高位震荡为主，现货提价情绪浓厚，关注高位成交。 建信期货分析称，基本面仍然面临现实挑战，1月多晶硅预期产量8-10万吨左右，简单折算最少可满足 终端40GW需求，下游进入循环减产阶段，白银价格大幅攀升挤压光伏主产品利润，终端需求正处于淡 季，硅片、电池片和组件预期产量为46.18GW、39.06GW和31.14GW。期货价格进入缩量减仓震荡阶 段，操作难度较高，在产业没有明显改善和超预期政策兑现前仍保持震荡运行。 1月8日，国内期市有色金属板块全线飘绿。其中，多晶硅期货主力合约午后触及跌停，现报53610元/ 吨，跌幅达9.00%。 目前来看，多晶硅行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘 ...