Group 1 - Gold prices surged to around $4500 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a daily increase of over 1% [1][2] - Silver prices rose over 5%, reaching a historical high, with strong momentum despite being in overbought territory; a breakthrough above $81.44 could open an upward channel to $82.00-$85.87, while $80.00 serves as key support [1][3] - The uncertainty surrounding the Venezuelan crisis, following the U.S. military action and the capture of President Maduro, may continue to support traditional safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 2 - The FOMC meeting minutes indicated that most officials believe further rate cuts are appropriate as long as inflation continues to decline, with an 82% probability that rates will remain unchanged in the upcoming meeting [2] - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. employment report, with expectations of a 55,000 increase in non-farm payrolls and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5%; stronger-than-expected data could pressure gold prices [2] - Silver has a bullish long-term outlook, with potential prices reaching $100, $120, or even higher, while the $70 level remains a strong support despite a significant adjustment in late 2025 [3]

国内品牌金价今日继续全线上行，整体价格区间进一步抬升。其中，老庙黄金表现突出，报价达1402 元/克，成为今日首个突破1400元/克关口的品牌。其余主流品牌金价也普遍迈向1400元大关。市场最高 价与最低价（菜百报1370元/克）之间的价差仍为32元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2026年1月7日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1402 | 元/克 | 13 | 张 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1396 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1398 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 周六福黄金价格 | I383 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1396 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1399 | 兀/兄 | 11 | 张 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1398 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1397 | 元/克 | 10 | 张 | | 菜白 ...

机构观点 东海期货： 市场评估俄乌冲突协议近战，若冲突结束，这对本就面临供应过剩的石油市场可能构成利空。周二美国政府再会议上向乌克兰当局提出的安全保 证辅助做出了一定的协议进展。委内瑞拉方面，主要石油公司预计将就委内瑞拉能源行业和特朗普政府会谈。中东地区风险也在发酵，伊朗的抗 议活动持续。叠加API数据出现原油和成品油的双重累库，油价近期将继续保持弱运行。 消息面 数据显示，截至1月6日，国内92#汽油均价为7298元/吨，较月初下跌1元/吨，0#柴油均价为6247元/吨，较月初下跌29元/吨。 据日本石油协会(PAJ)，截至1月3日当周，日本商业原油库存较之前一周增加586212千升，至10353413千升。日本汽油库存较之前一周下降17333 千升，至1695758千升。日本煤油库存较之前一周增加171775千升，至2227363千升。日本炼油厂的平均开工率为90.2%，之前一周为90.2%。 据CNBC报道，能源分析师称，印度国有炼油企业仍在继续购买俄罗斯石油。美国去年8月以印度持续进口俄油为由，对印度加征25%"二级"关 税，还在11月下旬对俄罗斯卢克石油和俄罗斯石油公司实施制裁。 华联期货： 消息面 ...

1月7日，国内期市有色金属板块涨多跌少。其中，碳酸锂期货主力合约现报141200.0元/吨，涨幅达 3.73%。 【消息面汇总】 1月7日，电池级碳酸锂指数价格132231元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨6226元/吨；电池级碳酸锂12.8-13.9 万元/吨，均价13.35万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨6000元/吨；工业级碳酸锂12.6-13.4万元/吨，均价13 万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨5750元/吨。 上周锂辉石价格环比上涨2.6%，锂云母精矿价格环比上涨3.3%，锂精矿报价同步锂盐价格上涨。 机构观点 南华期货（603093）：中长期视角看，储能、新能源乘用车和商用车下游应用领域的需求增长逻辑未发 生本质变化，行业基本面对于碳酸锂的长期价值支撑依旧稳固，碳酸锂仍具备逢低布多的机会。操作层 面，建议投资者聚焦回调后的结构性做多机会，依托基本面锚定合理估值区间进行分批布局，避免盲目 追高而受到短期波动的风险，建议以更稳健的策略应对市场波动。 光大期货：今日股商共振，对碳酸锂期货而言，资金对利多消息的敏感度更高。一方面，在地缘政治、 政策等因素扰动下，市场对锂资源实际供应有所担忧，另一方面，产业定价机制调整方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for soda ash shows a significant increase, with the main contract rising to 1243.00 yuan/ton, up 5.16% [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the spot market, manufacturers maintain stable pricing while traders see a slight increase, with the price in the Shahe region rising to 1150 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 13 yuan/ton [2] - The fundamental analysis indicates a weakening in spot prices, with increased maintenance intentions from soda ash producers leading to a month-on-month decline in production; however, long-term supply pressure remains due to new capacity coming online [2] - Demand continues to decline overall, with expectations of a gradual recovery in market supply as industry maintenance concludes; inventory is likely to face phase accumulation pressure [2] - The float glass sector's supply-demand fundamentals remain weak, with no substantial recovery observed in the real estate sector [2] Market Outlook - The float glass production has slightly decreased, and inventory levels are declining; however, the market in East China remains stable with companies primarily focused on maintaining prices [2] - The domestic soda ash market is expected to show weak and stable adjustments, with high supply levels persisting and downstream demand remaining lukewarm, leading to a focus on demand-based inventory replenishment [2] - Soda ash manufacturers are experiencing high inventory levels, and the spot market performance is generally average, with expectations of slight strong fluctuations in the short term [2]

Group 1 - The main contract for soybean futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 4396.00 yuan, with a current price of 4380.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.72% [1] - The market outlook for soybean prices is expected to remain strong due to a tight supply of high-protein soybeans and increased demand ahead of the traditional pre-Spring Festival stocking season [1] - The recent auction of soybeans showed high transaction rates and significant premiums, indicating strong short-term market demand [1] Group 2 - Domestic soybean prices continue to rise, supported by high premiums and transaction rates in recent auctions, with an increase in purchase prices for domestic soybeans [2] - The upcoming auction of trade grain in Jilin Province in mid-January is anticipated to further influence the domestic soybean market [2] - The supply risk for imported soybeans from South America remains low, with expectations of a bumper crop for the new season [2]

与此同时，受关税和供应商成本全面上涨影响，投入价格通胀攀升至七个月高位，劳动力成本增幅扩大，导致产出价格 涨至四个月高点。但企业对利率下调预期和业务扩张计划仍保持乐观信心。 交易员们为周三的美国ISM服务业採购经理人指数(PMI)报告做好准备。所有目光都将集中在周五的美国12月就业数据 上。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 白银价格在早盘中价格波动，以收回之前上涨的涨幅，试图在相对强弱指标上抛售部分明显的超买状况，尤其是在负面 信号出现时，以积累正面力量，可能帮助其在短期内恢复涨幅。由于交易在EMA50上方，持续保持正面支撑，进一步 强化了主看涨趋势在短期内的强势和主导地位，其交易与该趋势的支撑趋势线并行。 今日周三(1月7日)欧盘时段，国际白银目前交投于79.04一线下方，今日开盘于81.26美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银暂 报78.72美元/盎司，下跌3.06%，最高触及82.73美元/盎司，最低下探78.28美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏 向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 12月标普全球美国服务业PMI指数从11月的54.1点降至52.5点，较初值52.9点进一步下修，且低于市场预期的54点，创八 个月来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda futures market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the main contract rising by 4.43% to 2263.0 CNY/ton as of January 7 [1]. Market Summary - On January 6, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in the Zhejiang market ranged from 980 to 1020 CNY/ton, while the price for 48% ion membrane caustic soda was between 1450 and 1550 CNY/ton [2]. - The top 20 futures companies held a total of 155,500 long positions and 170,100 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.91. The net position increased by 6,460 contracts to -14,500 contracts compared to the previous day [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent recovery of certain facilities in North China, East China, and South China has led to an increase in the national average capacity utilization rate for caustic soda [3]. - Newhu Futures indicates that high operating rates on the supply side are expected to continue, with additional capacity creating further supply pressure. Although profits have been compressed, companies can still maintain production, supported by good demand for liquid chlorine. However, the demand for caustic soda is expected to remain weak due to high production and inventory levels in alumina, leading to anticipated production cuts in Shanxi and Henan [4]. - Huatai Futures notes that with fewer planned maintenance activities in January, supply pressure is unlikely to ease. The non-aluminum downstream sector is entering a seasonal decline, and the demand for caustic soda is expected to contract due to the impact of anti-competitive policies on alumina [4].

Group 1 - Silver TD is currently trading above 19243, with an opening price of 19465 and a current price of 19350, reflecting a 0.56% increase. The highest price reached was 20209, while the lowest was 19060, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - Lee Hardman from MUFG stated that unless the upcoming US non-farm payroll data is strong enough to prompt a reassessment of interest rate cut expectations, the dollar's gains may be limited. This could potentially support commodity prices priced in dollars [1] - Market expectations indicate a 50% chance of a rate cut in March and a 70% chance in April, with full pricing of rate cuts not expected until June. Private sector job growth may need to exceed 100,000 per month to delay further rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The price of Silver TD rose by 6% yesterday and continued to increase by over 4% in the morning, although it experienced a slight pullback later. The MACD histogram indicates a weakening bullish momentum, while the RSI remains in the overbought zone, suggesting high market activity [2] - Support levels for Silver TD are identified between 18500 and 19000, while resistance levels are noted between 20000 and 25000 [2]

Group 1 - Iron ore futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 825.5 yuan, with a current price of 824.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.58% [1] - Institutions have varying views on the future of iron ore prices, with East Wu Futures recommending light positions, citing stable fundamentals but high port inventories that may suppress price increases [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures expects short-term iron ore prices to continue fluctuating slightly higher, driven by increased shipments from Brazil and a slight recovery in domestic high furnace operating rates [3] Group 2 - Donghai Futures anticipates a short-term outlook of fluctuating prices, influenced by significant increases in other metals and a slight recovery in steel mill profitability, leading to improved demand for iron ore [3] - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 4.634 million tons week-on-week, while port inventories continued to rise, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic [3] - Key factors influencing iron ore prices include the pace of declining pig iron production and the timing of price bottoms, with expectations of a slightly stronger market in the short term [3]