7月29日（周二），一份调查结果显示，分析人士表示，美国的关税措施预计会抑制铝的需求，铝主要 用于交通运输、建筑和包装等领域，但市场供应过剩缩窄，以及相对较低的库存水平将支撑铝价。对26 位分析师的调查预估中值显示，2025年四季度，LME现货铝合约均价料为每吨2,500美元，较前一次调 查中预估的2,518美元几乎未变，但较目前价格水平下滑5%。分析师将2025年铝市场供需情况从前一次 调查中预测的过剩28万吨调整为过剩20万吨。 ...

沪锡横盘整理，主力合约收涨0.19%，报267870元/吨。矿端供应仍旧偏紧，国内即期冶炼原料仍面临压 力，缅甸佤邦政府重开复产会议，通过部分采矿证申请，提升市场对于四季度锡矿复产预期，供应端维 持强现实弱预期格局，短期基本面驱动有限，锡价跟随宏观情绪波动。 据SMM，上周云南与江西两省精炼锡冶炼企业合计开工率升至55.51%，本次开工率回升属阶段性修复 而非趋势反转。部分冶炼厂因停产检修，清理部分冶炼环节中间品，支撑开工率小幅反弹。但考虑到中 间品量级较小且无法保持生产连续性，后续云南地区冶炼企业开工率将小幅下滑无法保持当前开工水 平。江西部分冶炼厂结束检修，逐步恢复生产，但受废锡回收量不足限制，产能恢复缓慢。 近期锡价波动收窄，冶炼厂多持挺价情绪，实际鲜有成交；贸易商方面积极入市报价，多反馈当前锡价 仍处高位，下游补货情绪不佳，多以消耗库存为主，成交多以刚需为主，市场整体交投表现一般。锡市 7月维持供需双弱态势，贸易商出货随盘面价格波动影响其销售水平，下游订单水平下滑幅度较大，且 三季度为下游消费水平淡季，锡相关消费较往年皆有下滑。家电排产订单不足，随着531抢装机的结束 后，光伏订单环比下滑严重，整体需 ...

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported that tin inventory initially decreased and then increased, reaching a two-year low of 1,690 tons on July 23, before rising to 1,855 tons in the latest report [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that tin inventory continued to rise, with a weekly increase of 3.76% to 7,417 tons, marking a one-and-a-half-month high [1] - Generally, declining inventories in domestic and international exchanges support price levels, while increasing inventories may exert downward pressure on prices [3] Group 2 - A comparison of LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventories since July 2025 shows fluctuations in inventory levels, with LME inventory decreasing from 2,220 tons at the beginning of July to 1,690 tons by July 23, followed by a slight recovery [4][5] - The latest data indicates that LME inventory is at 1,855 tons as of July 29, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory stands at 7,417 tons as of July 25 [5]

7月29日（周二），一份调查结果显示，多家分析机构上调今年和2026年铜均价预估，因对美国关税影响的担忧提振了价格，但随着库存和产量增加，未来 几个月铜价料下滑。 对26位分析师的调查预估中值显示，2025年四季度，伦敦金属交易所(LME)现货铜合约均价预计在每吨9,500美元，较7月前一次调查的9,250美元预估值上修 2.7%。 2025年全年，LME现货铜合约均价料为每吨9,525美元，2026年料为9,796美元。 铝需求疲软 分析人士表示，美国的关税措施预计会抑制铝的需求，铝主要用于交通运输、建筑和包装等领域，但市场供应过剩缩窄，以及相对较低的库存水平将支撑铝 价。 StoneX的Natalie Scott-Gray表示："目前并没有太多证据能让我们相信铝价在短期内会有很大的上涨潜力。" "基本面正呈现看跌态势，因为美国商品价格过高已经影响了国内的下游需求，而除美国之外的地区，较高的关税环境预期正在抑制全球消费。" 2025年四季度，LME现货铝合约均价料为每吨2,500美元，较前一次调查中预估的2,518美元几乎未变，但较目前价格水平下滑5%。 分析师将2025年铝市场供需情况从前一次调查中预测的 ...

7月29日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价基本没有变化，交易商等待美国与智利和中国的贸易 会谈结果，以获得有关美国计划从周五开始对铜征收50%进口关税的更多信息。 伦敦时间7月29日17:00(北京时间7月30日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨5美元，或0.05%，收报每吨 9,798.0美元，持于略高于21天移动均线的水平。 最活跃COMEX期铜合约较LME指标期铜的升水从上周的30%降至26%，此前全球主要铜供应国智利表 示将在本周华盛顿举行的更广泛的贸易对话中讨论美国铜关税。 美国商务部长卢特尼克周二表示，尽管单独会谈仍在继续，但特朗普总统本周仍将就贸易协议做出决 定，这又带来了一层不确定性。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）29日发布《世界经济展望报告》更新内容，小幅上调今明两年世界经济增长 预期。报告还提及，中国实际GDP年化增长率达到6%，超出预期。相较于4月份的预测，IMF将中国 2025年经济增速上调了0.8个百分点至4.8%。中国是全球最大的金属消费国。 据新华社报道，当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、 美国财政部长贝森特及贸易代表格里尔在瑞典 ...

7月29日（周二），伦敦和上海期铜双双下滑，因交易商权衡中美谈判以及世界第一大铜生产国智利与 美国就8月1日起对铜征收50%关税的谈判。 智利财政部长Mario Marcel周一在采访中称， 智利预计铜关税问题将在华盛顿举行的更广泛的美智贸易 谈判中进行讨论。 他补充说，智利将要求将这些关税纳入与美国的更广泛的贸易协定之中。 秘鲁总统Dina Boluarte表示，秘鲁正在评估134个矿业勘探和开采项目的授权，这些项目预计投资规模 达60亿美元。秘鲁政府希望提高这一关键产业的收入。 Boluarte在国会发表讲话时表示，她预计到今年年底，正规小规模采矿业的年销售额将超过50亿美元， 到2026年，47亿美元的正规项目应该已经开工建设。 其他基本金属方面，沪铝主力合约下跌0.22%，报收于20,605元；沪锌主力合约下跌0.35%，报收于 22,655元；沪锡主力合约下滑0.76%，报收于266,660元；沪镍主力合约跌0.85%，报收于121,800元；沪 铅主力合约收跌0.24%，至每吨16,900元。 北京时间16:26，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜下滑0.16%，报每吨9,777美元。 上海期货交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is currently experiencing a weak trend due to seasonal demand slowdown, with a slight accumulation of social inventory, and is awaiting more definitive guidance as the August 1 deadline approaches [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The night trading session for copper opened slightly higher but fell back, closing down by 0.18% [1] - Domestic demand is currently weak, leading to a limited accumulation of social inventory [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are anticipated, with the market expecting the Fed to maintain its current stance [1] Group 2: Trade Developments - A trade framework agreement was reached between the U.S. and the EU, reducing market uncertainty [1] - Ongoing attention is required on the progress of U.S.-China negotiations [1] - There are rumors regarding the potential implementation of tariffs on imported copper by the U.S. on August 1, including possible exemptions [1] Group 3: Chilean Copper Tariffs - Chile's finance minister indicated expectations for U.S. copper tariff exemptions, leading to a significant drop in U.S. copper prices, which affected LME and Shanghai copper prices [1] - Chile accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. copper imports; if exemptions are granted, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper will narrow significantly [1] - Despite potential exemptions, U.S. copper prices are expected to remain higher than non-U.S. markets due to ongoing tariffs [1] Group 4: Processing Fees - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees are still operating at low levels, and the tight supply situation is unlikely to change in the short term [1]

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦锌库存呈区间波动格局，整体库存有所回落，最新库 存水平为115,500吨。 上期所公布的数据显示，7月25日当周，沪锌库存继续回升，周度库存增加8.77%至59,419吨，增至逾三 个月新高。 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来LME和上期所锌库存对比 以下为2025年7月以来LME和上期所锌库存数据：（单位：吨） ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is attempting to reduce foreign dependence and enhance domestic production of critical minerals by extracting high-value minerals from tailings and abandoned mines, including rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and uranium [1] - Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has ordered modifications to streamline federal regulations and expedite project approvals for mineral recovery from coal reuse, tailings, and closed uranium mines [1] - The plan includes updating guidelines for federal funding support for these recovery projects and accelerating the review of proposed projects [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been tasked with mapping mineral tailings on federal lands and identifying locations rich in critical minerals [1] - Significant mineral sources have been identified, including tellurium in the Bingham Canyon copper mine tailings in Utah and zinc and germanium in the long-abandoned Tar Creek tailings in Oklahoma [1] - Rare earth elements have also been discovered in the clay layers of the Appalachian and Illinois basins [1] Group 3 - The initiative reflects a strong commitment to achieving mineral independence and ensuring the U.S. maintains a competitive edge in advanced technologies that power the future [1] - Adam Suess, Deputy Secretary for Land and Mineral Management, stated that accelerating the recovery of critical minerals from tailings helps to fully tap into the U.S. mineral resource potential, promoting national security and economic growth [2] - This move is part of the implementation of Trump's strategy to revitalize the U.S. mining industry, as the country has fallen behind in the extraction and processing of critical minerals [2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell on July 24, following a decline in US copper futures, amid increasing uncertainty as the deadline for US tariffs on copper imports approaches [1] - The three-month LME copper closed at $9,877.00 per ton, down $53.50 or 0.54% [2] - COMEX copper also decreased by 0.5% to $5.7925 per pound, after reaching a high of $5.9585 [3] Group 2 - The premium of COMEX copper over LME copper remains stable at 29%, still below the proposed 50% import tariff by President Trump [3] - Analysts suggest that any changes to Trump's tariff policy could lead to a decrease in the COMEX copper premium [3] - Over the past four months, copper inflows into COMEX warehouses increased by 163%, but the inflow has recently slowed down [4] Group 3 - The focus of the metal market is not only on the upcoming US copper tariff deadline but also on the upcoming US-China trade talks and investigations into key mineral imports [4] - Other base metals also experienced declines, with LME three-month aluminum down $4.00 (0.15%) and three-month zinc down $18.50 (0.65%) [4] - LME three-month tin fell by $227.00 (0.65%), closing at $34,626.00 per ton, after reaching a four-month high of $35,100.00 [4]