之前美国总统特朗普22日宣布，美国与日本达成贸易协议，美方将对日本进口商品的关税税率由25%降 至15%。 一位期货分析师表示："8月1日的最后期限正在临近，但没人知道哪些铜产品会受到影响，这让人难以 预测铜价未来的走势。" 其他基本金属方面，三个月期铝下跌0.21%，报每吨2,645.5美元；三个月期锌上涨0.47%，报每吨 2,875.5美元；三个月期锡上涨0.41%，报每吨34,995美元；三个月期镍上涨0.21%，报每吨15,605美元； 三个月期铅上涨0.17%，报每吨2,035.5美元。 7月24日（周四），伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜价周四小幅上涨，因对美国贸易谈判进展的乐观情绪升 温，不过美国铜进口关税的不确定性令交易商保持谨慎。 个月期铜上涨0.14%，最新报每吨9,944美元。 智利矿业部长和全球最大铜生产商--智利国营铜业公司(Codelco)董事长周三表示，他们尚未收到美国将 于8月1日征收50%铜关税的细节。美国大部分进口的精炼铜均来自智利。 据证券时报网报道，当地时间23日，美国总统特朗普表示，将对世界其他大部分国家征收15%至50%的 简单关税。特朗普还说，美国正在与欧盟进行认真谈 ...

Group 1 - LME inventory has decreased significantly from approximately 4,800 tons at the beginning of the year to 1,690 tons, representing a cumulative reduction of 65%, reaching a near two-year low [1] - The low inventory levels have increased the risk of short selling in LME tin, with a major holder owning 50-79% of the warehouse receipts, and concentrated long positions in the near term [1] - The LME 0-3 spot premium has expanded significantly, leading to a substantial increase in night trading for LME tin, which in turn has driven up domestic tin prices [1] Group 2 - China's tin ingot imports saw a slight decline in June, while exports increased, with the overall import level expected to decrease due to a persistently closed import window and low profit margins [2] - The domestic supply of refined tin is under pressure, with expectations of substantial outflows of tin ore in Q4 due to the reopening of mining operations in Myanmar [2] - The consumption side is facing challenges, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which is suppressing solder demand, and the electronics and automotive electronics sectors are entering a seasonal downturn, leading to weak order growth [2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a two-week high, supported by a trade agreement between the US and Japan, with prices closing at $9,930.5 per ton, up $11 or 0.11% [1] - COMEX copper prices increased by 1.84% to $5.8265 per pound, with a record high of $5.93 earlier, driven by the anticipation of a 50% tariff on imported copper by the US starting August 1 [3] - The market sentiment improved following the US-Japan trade agreement, contributing to a rise in global stock markets and increasing investor interest in potential US-China trade agreements [3] Group 2 - Concerns over copper supply surplus persisted, with a reported surplus of 272,000 tons in the first five months of the year, leading to pressure on the market [4] - LME three-month aluminum prices fell by $7.5 or 0.28%, closing at $2,651.0 per ton, marking the worst performance among base metals on that day [4] - LME three-month tin prices rose by $945 or 2.79%, closing at $34,853.0 per ton, indicating strong demand despite overall market pressures [5]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a weak demand season, with limited fundamental drivers and fluctuating macro sentiments impacting prices. The main contract closed at 268,540 yuan/ton, up 0.42% despite a cooling demand environment [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Tin downstream demand is currently weak due to the off-peak season, with a notable decline in orders from the home appliance sector and a significant drop in photovoltaic orders following the end of the rush for installations [2]. - In June, China's imports of tin concentrate slightly decreased compared to May, with supply remaining relatively tight domestically. The main sources of increased imports were the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Myanmar, with a significant rise from the former [1]. - The supply side continues to show low operating rates at smelters, and the industrial supply of tin concentrate remains tight, contributing to a subdued market environment [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Recent price increases have been met with a lack of actual transactions, as traders report a high price level and downstream participants exhibit a cautious stance, leading to a generally quiet trading atmosphere [2]. - The market is expected to remain under the influence of macroeconomic policies, with tin prices likely to experience fluctuations at high levels in the short term [2]. - The overall trading performance is characterized by a weak demand environment, with the market maintaining a low level of activity as consumer acceptance of current tin prices remains low [2].

虽然美国铝业有很多美国国内生产，但其也依赖于加拿大的业务来满足需求。该公司在魁北克拥有三家 冶炼和铸造厂，主要为美国客户提供服务。该公司是美国最大铝供应商之一，但由于美国对进口铝加征 关税，该公司现在正在重新安排货物路线。 7月21日（周一），美国铝业公司（Alcoa）首席执行官Bill Oplinger警告称，美国关税政策迫使该公司 旗下加拿大增长性项目暂停。 Bill Oplinger称，如果继续对进口铝加征关税，这家美国金属产商可能需要向加拿大政府寻求帮助。 他表示，该公司需要等到8月1日才能决定其是否会寻求加拿大政府的财政或其他方面的援助，以支持该 公司在魁北克的铝业务。 上周五，他在接受媒体采访的时候表示，"公司魁北克项目的盈利能力受到了严重影响。这种情况持续 的时间越长，对魁北克资产竞争力的损害就越大。加拿大政府也明白这一点。" 美国铝业遭遇的挑战表明，美国对进口铝加征关税旨在促进美国制造业的发展，但现在却损害了美国最 大的铝生产商，从可乐罐到汽车的所有产品都使用这种金属。 "我们正在尽一切可能将通常运往美国的（铝）供应运往全球其他地区。" 该公司称，如果关税保持不变，该公司可能会考虑游说加拿大联 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached a new high since November 2024, closing at 20,900 yuan per ton, up 0.75% [1] - The analyst from a futures company stated that the aluminum fundamentals are the strongest among base metals, supported by a limited smelting capacity of 45 million tons and rising alumina prices [1] - As of July 18, the total aluminum inventory monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 108,822 tons, the lowest since February 2024, despite a rebound over three consecutive weeks [1] Group 2 - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a global lead market surplus of 1,000 tons in May 2025, compared to a shortage of 6,000 tons in April [1] - In the first five months of 2025, the global lead market had a surplus of 23,000 tons, down from a surplus of 68,000 tons in the same period last year [1] - The global zinc market faced a shortage of 43,900 tons in May 2025, contrasting with a surplus of 17,300 tons in April [1] Group 3 - LME copper inventory increased by 2,775 tons or 2.27%, reaching 124,850 tons, with the largest change occurring in the Guangyang warehouse, which added 1,500 tons [2] - LME three-month zinc rose by 0.14% to $2,842.5 per ton, while three-month tin increased by 0.1% to $33,845 per ton [2] - Three-month copper saw a slight increase of 0.07% to $9,866.5 per ton, while three-month lead and nickel experienced declines of 0.55% and 0.18%, respectively [2]

Group 1 - LME zinc prices reached a four-month high due to concerns over supply tightness, with over 50% of the registered warehouse inventory marked as canceled warrants [1][3] - As of July 21, LME three-month zinc closed at $2,838.50 per ton, up $20 or 0.71% [1][2] - Total zinc inventory in LME warehouses is 118,225 tons, with 50% or 59,900 tons available for delivery, raising questions about the actual movement of zinc from warehouses [3] Group 2 - The increase in nickel prices is attributed to expectations of rising demand from China, leading to short covering by traders [4] - Industrial metal prices are supported by stable growth plans in China's machinery, automotive, and electrical equipment sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing price increases driven by favorable policies, low inventory levels, and supply disruptions from Guinea, despite long-term oversupply concerns [2][10][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of aluminum oxide has surged due to multiple factors, including supply-side reforms expected from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which aims to stabilize growth in key industries [2]. - On July 18, aluminum oxide inventory dropped significantly to 6,922 tons, raising concerns about liquidity and potential short squeeze risks [2][7]. - The main contract for aluminum oxide reached a five-month high, with trading volume increasing to nearly 1 million lots [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Inventory - Guinea's rainy season is impacting bauxite supply, with a recent announcement of new reforms aimed at increasing transparency in bauxite pricing [4][5]. - Domestic bauxite inventory remains high, with port stocks at 27.04 million tons, despite a slight weekly decline [4]. - The overall supply of imported bauxite is under pressure, with a significant drop in shipments to China, down 36.8% week-on-week [5]. Group 3: Production and Capacity - Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity has increased, reaching a new high of 1.785 million tons as of early July, with production continuing to rise [11]. - New production capacities are expected to come online in the second half of 2025, potentially leading to a further oversupply situation [13]. - The overall inventory of aluminum oxide in China has increased to 3.989 million tons, indicating a trend of accumulation [13]. Group 4: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy has positively influenced market sentiment, although its direct impact on the aluminum oxide sector may be limited due to the absence of significant outdated capacity [10]. - The current market dynamics suggest that while short-term prices may remain strong, long-term oversupply expectations could lead to price stabilization or declines [15].

在22500点下方横盘了一个季度的沪锌，周五夜盘突然大爆发，期价量价齐升，大涨逾2.5%，触及三个 月多月高位。 一德期货有色研发中心铅锌分析师 张圣涵：近期国内即将发布钢铁、有色等重点行业稳增长方案，国 内"反内卷"政策积极推进，"优结构 淘汰落后产能引发市场对于供给侧改革再次出现预期。同时美联储 降息呼声渐起，海外情绪缓和。宏观偏积极预期使得大批资金涌入前期低估值品种，黑色系走强同时也 带动了锌价上行。 弘业期货金融研究院金属研究员 蔡丽：宏观情绪利好氛围偏高，锌涨幅靠前。上周公布的美国消费数 据表现良好，且通胀数据也相对温和，市场对美经济信心有所修复，且对降息节奏也有所期待。国内方 面，国内反内卷继续推进，淘汰落后产能优化结构存在较大的期待，市场对于锌供应端收缩有所担忧， 不过暂时并没有有色方面具体的优化方案，锌价大涨更多的是市场情绪面带动。宏观面及政策面并未对 锌供需面造成确定性影响。 中银国际期货研究咨询部有色高级研究员 刘超：工信部今日表态，钢铁、有色、石化、建材等十大重 点行业的稳增长方案将在近期落地，并明确"调结构、优供给、淘汰落后"。消息一出，市场对部分品种 供给收缩的预期迅速升温，带动盘面 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose to a one-week high, closing at $9,778.50 per ton, up $112.00 or 1.16% due to increased investor risk appetite and bargain buying [1][2] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up 2.00% to $2,629.50, zinc up 2.98% to $2,818.50, and lead up 1.88% to $2,010.00 [2] - BHP Group reported a slight increase in copper production for the fourth quarter, reaching 516,200 tons, up 2.25% year-on-year, and an annual copper production of 2,016,700 tons, an 8% increase from the previous fiscal year [4] Group 2 - Analysts noted that U.S. economic data has improved, boosting hopes for better copper demand and reducing the likelihood of immediate interest rate cuts [4] - LME copper inventories have been rising, particularly in Asian warehouses, as some traders bet on increased buying following recent price declines, though uncertainty remains about whether this will materialize [4] - Peru's copper production fell by 4.6% year-on-year in May, totaling 220,849 tons, highlighting challenges in one of the world's largest copper-producing countries [5] Group 3 - Nickel prices underperformed due to rising inventories and weak demand, with Commerzbank lowering its nickel price forecast for the end of 2025 from $18,000 to $16,000 per ton [6] - Three-month aluminum reached a three-week high of $2,637 per ton, reflecting positive market sentiment [7]