Core Viewpoint - The oil price is expected to experience a downward trend in 2025H1 due to a combination of weakened demand expectations and OPEC+ increasing production, while geopolitical events will cause significant volatility in oil prices [2][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - In 2025H1, oil prices are projected to decline as demand expectations decrease and OPEC+ accelerates production, with geopolitical events causing sharp fluctuations [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $66.63 and $64.97 per barrel, reflecting declines of 11.0% and 9.6% respectively since the beginning of the year [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The prolonged nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and uncertainties surrounding the Iran-Israel ceasefire are expected to continue impacting oil prices due to geopolitical risks [3]. - The failure of nuclear negotiations has led to increased tensions in the Middle East, which may further exacerbate geopolitical risks affecting oil prices [3]. Group 3: OPEC+ Production and Supply - OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, contributing to a forecasted global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, reaching 104.9 million barrels per day [4]. - The IEA has raised its forecast for global oil supply, with non-OPEC+ countries expected to contribute 1.4 million barrels per day to the increase [4]. Group 4: Demand Expectations - The IEA has downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day, primarily due to weak demand from the US and China [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the impact of clean energy technologies are expected to suppress long-term oil demand growth [5]. Group 5: Strategic Responses from Major Oil Companies - Major oil companies are expected to maintain high capital expenditures and focus on increasing reserves and production to counter external uncertainties [5]. - The planned growth in oil and gas equivalent production for the three major oil companies is 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% respectively for 2025 [5].

Group 1: Steel Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions" in February 2025, which is expected to help restore profitability in the steel sector to historical average levels [3] - The steel sector is undergoing a two-tier evaluation system for "standard enterprises" and "leading standard enterprises," aligning with the broader policy goal of better adapting supply-side to demand changes [3] Group 2: Non-ferrous Metals - The price of electric carbon has risen for the first time in five months, and the price of electrolytic cobalt has reached a one-month high, indicating a positive outlook for the metal new materials sector [4] - Lithium prices have dropped to around 60,000 yuan/ton, with potential for accelerated capacity exit; companies with cost advantages and resource expansion in the lithium sector are recommended for attention [4] - The export ban on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo has been extended for three months, and tungsten prices remain at their highest since 2013 [4] Group 3: Oil and Chemical Industry - In H1 2025, the oil market experienced significant volatility due to geopolitical events and OPEC+ production increases, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [5] - As of June 30, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $66.63 and $64.97 per barrel, reflecting declines of 11.0% and 9.6% respectively since the beginning of the year [5] Group 4: Construction and Building Materials - The scarcity of orbital frequency is driving competition, and the construction of low-orbit satellite constellations in China is entering an accelerated phase [6] - Shanghai Port has strategically positioned itself in the satellite energy system sector, having supported the launch of 15 satellites and over 40 sets in orbit, which is expected to benefit from the rapid development of low-orbit satellites [6] Group 5: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - In May, the number of pigs slaughtered increased, maintaining a micro-profit level for the industry [7] - As of July 4, the average price of external three-bred pigs was 15.35 yuan/kg, up 4.28% week-on-week, while the average price of 15 kg piglets was 31.33 yuan/kg, down 0.85% week-on-week [7] Group 6: Renewable Energy and Public Utilities - The "anti-involution" policy will be a key focus for government work in Q3 2025, with an emphasis on price strategies to combat deflation and assist local governments in debt reduction [6] - The market is closely watching whether outdated production capacity can exit quickly, with expectations for demand in H2 2025 or 2026 [6] Group 7: Automotive Industry - Wuxi Zhenhua has exceeded expectations in core customer orders, driven by both stamping and electroplating, leading to stable growth in performance [8] - Xiaomi's first SUV, the YU7, achieved over 289,000 pre-orders within one hour of its launch, indicating strong product and brand power [8] - Wuxi Zhenhua has established a stable partnership with Xiaomi, with the automotive sector expected to contribute significantly to the company's revenue [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an analysis of the current state of the pig farming industry, including supply, prices, and profitability, while also discussing the trends in related agricultural commodities such as corn, wheat, and soybean meal [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Pig Farming Industry Analysis - The breeding sow inventory slightly increased to 40.42 million heads by the end of May 2025, with a month-on-month growth of 0.1% and a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [3]. - In May, the slaughter volume of pigs reached 32.16 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.5% and a year-on-year increase of 20.6%. The average weight of slaughtered pigs peaked at over 92 kg before starting to decline [3]. - The average price of live pigs in May dropped slightly to 14.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.9% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year. The average price for piglets was 39.14 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% but a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [3]. - Profitability in the industry continued to narrow, with average profits for large-scale farms dropping to 49 yuan per pig in May from 86 yuan in April, while smallholders saw profits decrease to 21 yuan per pig from 50 yuan [3]. Group 2: Recent Price Trends - As of July 4, the national average price for live pigs was 15.35 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.28%. The average price for piglets was 31.33 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.85% [4]. - The average slaughter weight of pigs this week was 128.64 kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.50 kg. The national frozen product inventory rate rose to 14.23%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points [4]. - The price increase was attributed to supply constraints due to heavy rainfall in southern regions and a seasonal reduction in supply, although the price growth is expected to slow as slaughterhouses adjust their output [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Commodity Prices - As of July 4, the average spot price for corn was 2436.27 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.22%. Soybean meal averaged 2916.29 yuan/ton, up 0.46%, and wheat averaged 2451.06 yuan/ton, up 0.19% [5]. - Domestic corn prices showed slight fluctuations, with prices in North China affected by news of imported corn auctions, while supply tightened in Northeast China due to ongoing outflows [5]. - The soybean meal market experienced adjustments, with increased supply from the U.S. and Brazil, while demand from end markets led to higher inventory levels at oil mills [6]. Group 4: Natural Rubber Price Trends - As of July 4, domestic natural rubber futures prices reached 14,075 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.21%. Supply constraints in Southeast Asia due to ongoing rainy conditions have limited significant increases in supply [7]. - The inventory of rubber in Qingdao increased to 624,700 tons, with general trade inventory at 527,600 tons, up by 15,400 tons week-on-week [7].

Overall Viewpoint - The article discusses the "involution-style competition" in the photovoltaic, energy storage, and new energy vehicle industries, highlighting the government's focus on preventing such competition as a key task for Q3 2025 [3] - The government aims to address issues of low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, with a focus on price strategies to combat deflation and assist local governments in debt reduction [3] - The article emphasizes that while backward production capacity will continue to exit, it will not do so rapidly, and the market is concerned about the speed of this exit and future demand in H2 2025 or 2026 [3] Photovoltaic Industry - Photovoltaic glass and silicon material prices show good elasticity, but profitability after price increases is generally moderate; integrated companies with low price-to-book ratios are expected to benefit from overall valuation increases [3] - New technologies such as BC and perovskite have certain price elasticity, and overseas markets show good profitability elasticity, leading to higher stock price elasticity under changing market sentiment [3] Wind Power Industry - Wind turbine prices are stabilizing but will benefit from the "prevent involution" policy; the performance elasticity in the wind turbine segment is significant, with larger units and cost reductions in components expected to improve profitability in 2026 [4] - The issuance of Document No. 136 is reshaping the logic of new energy installations, with expectations for a recovery in wind power development and power station sales [4] - Short-term wind power bidding and Q2 performance may face pressure, but the market is gradually digesting these issues, and expectations for improvement in related indicators are forming [4] Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery sector has shown signs of a pullback, with weak performance recently; however, stock prices of some companies in the copper foil segment have rebounded following the "prevent involution" policy [4] - While the solid-state battery sector is viewed positively, there are significant risks associated with materials linked to solid-state battery concepts in the short term [4] - In the medium term, battery manufacturers are actively advancing semi-solid production lines and full solid-state experiments, leading to increased capital expenditures in the solid-state battery sector [4] Energy Storage Market - There is a consensus on the positive outlook for large-scale energy storage in Europe and overseas commercial storage; however, there are differing views on profitability improvements and demand rhythms in domestic large-scale storage following Document No. 136 [5] - The good bidding data for large-scale storage in May-June is related to the "531" rush installation and independent storage "land grabbing" [5] - Medium-term profitability improvements for large-scale storage depend on the construction of the electricity market and improved trading flexibility, while short-term large-scale storage still requires substantial subsidies [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the acceleration of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation construction in China, driven by the scarcity of orbital and frequency resources [2] - LEO satellites offer advantages such as reduced power attenuation, lower communication latency, and simplified terminal design compared to geostationary orbit (GEO) satellites [2] - Major domestic satellite projects include "Guowang" (12,992 satellites), "Qianfan" (over 15,000 satellites), and "Honghu-3" (10,000 satellites), all with phased launch plans [2] Group 2 - Leading waterproof companies like Yuhong, Beixin, and Keshun have initiated a new round of price increases for engineering products, following a previous price hike for consumer products [3] - The collective price increase among leading companies is seen as a strategy to recover prices amid a backdrop of industry "anti-involution," although current demand remains weak [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and trends in different sectors, highlighting the current state of liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, along with price movements and production metrics. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous month [3] - London gold prices increased by 1.94% compared to the previous week [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in late June was 2.129 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% [4] - Price changes included rebar up by 2.91%, cement price index down by 1.68%, and iron ore up by 3.55% [4] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires changed by -0.54 percentage points, +16.00 percentage points, -0.6 percentage points, and -1.89 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and flat glass decreased by 1.47% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1227 CNY/ton [5] - The operating rate for flat glass was 75.68% this week [5] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] - Major commodity prices showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel and copper prices increasing by 0.27% and 0.22%, while aluminum prices decreased by 0.91% [6] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 70.41%, down by 7.64 percentage points [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum reached a record high since 2012 in May [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,750 CNY/ton, down by 0.91%, with a calculated profit of 3,428 CNY/ton (excluding tax) [7] - The price of graphite electrodes remained stable at 18,000 CNY/ton, with a comprehensive profit of 1,357.4 CNY/ton, down by 5.56% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore reached a near seven-month high at 4.27 this week [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 110 CNY/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 340 CNY/ton, up by 170 CNY/ton [8] - The price difference for small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 140 CNY/ton, down by 26.32% from last week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,342.99 points, down by 1.92% [9] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel was 79.10%, down by 0.50 percentage points [9] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being ordinary steel, which rose by 6.52% [10] - The PB ratios for ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB were 37.44% and 69.40% respectively [10] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 PB is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price trends of various materials in different sectors, highlighting significant changes in the prices of cobalt, lithium, and other new energy materials, as well as the implications for the respective industries. Group 1: Military Industry Materials - The price of electrolytic cobalt is 250,000 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.8% [3] - The price of carbon fiber remains stable at 83.8 CNY/kg, with a gross profit of -8.51 CNY/kg [3] - Beryllium prices are unchanged this week [3] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Materials - The price of Li2O 5% lithium concentrate at the Chinese port is 582.5 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.88% [4] - The prices of electric carbon, industrial carbon, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide are 61,300 CNY/ton, 59,800 CNY/ton, and 57,700 CNY/ton, with respective changes of +1.6%, +1.91%, and -1.1% [4] - The price of cobalt sulfate is 48,900 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.10% [4] - The prices of lithium iron phosphate and 523-type cathode materials are 30,500 CNY/ton and 105,600 CNY/ton, with changes of +0.50% and 0.0% respectively [4] - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide is 446.13 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.5% [4] Group 3: Photovoltaic Materials - The price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 4.22 USD/kg, remaining stable [5] - The price of EVA is 10,400 CNY/ton, showing a decrease of 0.5%, but remains at a high level since 2013 [5] - The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass coating is 24.0 CNY/square meter, unchanged from the previous week [5] Group 4: Nuclear Power Materials - The prices of zirconium-related materials are as follows: oxychloride zirconium at 14,750 CNY/ton, sponge zirconium at 152.5 CNY/kg, and hafnium oxide at 9,000 CNY/kg, with no significant changes [6] - The uranium price is 57.31 USD/pound, reflecting an increase of 8.8% [6] Group 5: Consumer Electronics Materials - The price of cobalt tetroxide is 194,500 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.52% [7] - The price of lithium cobalt oxide is 175.0 CNY/kg, remaining stable [7] - The prices of silicon carbide, high-purity gallium, crude indium, and refined indium are 5,400.00 CNY/ton, 1,845.00 CNY/kg, 2,425.00 CNY/kg, and 2,525.00 CNY/kg respectively, all unchanged [7] - The price of germanium dioxide is 9,800 CNY/kg, also stable [7] Group 6: Other Materials - The prices of platinum, rhodium, and iridium are 326.00 CNY/g, 1,455.00 CNY/g, and 1,135.00 CNY/g respectively, with platinum showing a decrease of 2.1% [8]

Market Overview - The convertible bond market continued to rise during the week from June 30 to July 4, 2025, with the China Convertible Bond Index increasing by +1.2% (previous week +2.1%), marking two consecutive weeks of significant gains [3] - Year-to-date, the China Convertible Bond Index has risen by +7.9%, outperforming the China All Index, which has increased by +4.6% [3][7] Performance by Rating and Size - High-rated bonds (AA+ and above) saw the highest weekly increase of +1.62%, followed by medium-rated bonds (AA) at +1.41%, and low-rated bonds (AA- and below) at +0.63% [4] - In terms of bond size, large-scale convertible bonds (over 5 billion) increased by +1.45%, medium-scale bonds (between 500 million and 5 billion) by +1.12%, and small-scale bonds (under 500 million) by +0.92% [4] Price and Valuation Metrics - The average price of convertible bonds reached 124.53 yuan, up from 123.21 yuan the previous week, with a percentile value of 93.8% [5][6] - The average conversion price was 96.58 yuan, an increase from 94.88 yuan, with a percentile value of 81.9% [6] - The average conversion premium decreased to 28.2% from 29.9%, with a percentile value of 56.5% [6] Sector Performance - The top 30 convertible bonds by increase were primarily from the chemical (6), pharmaceutical (4), and electronics (4) sectors, while the largest declines were seen in the chemical (6), automotive (4), and non-ferrous metals (3) sectors [4] Future Outlook - The convertible bond market's performance is expected to be influenced by fundamental factors and macro policies, with a focus on sectors that can benefit from domestic demand stimulation [7]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 特斯拉Robotaxi上线，美国电动车税收抵免提前终止或导致特斯拉需求承压： 当地时间6/22特斯拉在美国奥斯汀正式推出Robotaxi服务、6/28 Model Y首次实现全自动驾驶交付；7/3美国众 议院通过"大而美法案"，规定从2025/9/30起全面取消购买新电动汽车的7,500美元税收抵免（vs. 原计划2032年 底取消）。我们判断，1）国内外Robotaxi商业化规模上量或迎拐点突破；2）美国电动车税收抵免提前终止或 导致特斯拉在美需求承压；3）国内新势力购车优惠放大或加剧消费者观望情绪，关注2H25E以旧换新政策进 展。 2Q25特斯拉全球交付量环比修复： 2Q25特斯拉全球交付量同比-13.5%/环比+14.1%至38.4万辆（Model 3+Y同比-11.5%/环比+15.4%至37.4万 辆）。 6月理想交付同环比下滑，小鹏/蔚来环比企稳： 1）理想交付量同比-24.1%/环比-11.2%至36,279辆；2）小鹏交付量同比+224.4%/环比+3.2%至34,611辆；3）蔚 来交付量同比+17.5%/环比+7.3%至24,925辆（乐道L60 ...

查看完整报告 特别申明： 点击注册小程序 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 （1）本周（6.30-7.4）秦皇岛港口动力煤平仓价（5500大卡周度平均值）为621元/吨，环比+5元/吨 （+0.88%）；（2）陕西榆林动力混煤坑口价格（5800大卡）周度平均值为475元/吨，环比+1元/吨 （+0.21%）；（3）澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港动力煤FOB价格（5500大卡周度平均值）为65美元/吨，环 比-1.89%；（4）欧洲天然气期货结算价（DUTCH TTF）为33欧元/兆瓦时，环比-6.37%；（5）布伦特原 油期货结算价为68.30美元/桶，环比+0.78%。 铁水日均产量维持高位，三峡出库流量季节性上升 （1）本周110家样本洗煤厂（约占全国洗煤厂焦原煤入洗产能50%）开工率为59.7%，环比+0.6pct， ...