Core Viewpoint - Short-term copper prices are fluctuating, but the outlook for copper prices in 2026 remains positive due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [4]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of January 30, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 103,680 CNY/ton, up 2.31% from January 23, while LME copper closed at 13,071 USD/ton, down 0.44% [4]. - The market perceives a low probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March 2026, which may affect overall commodity sentiment [4]. Group 2: Inventory Analysis - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 2.2%, while LME copper inventory increased by 2.6% [5]. - As of January 30, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 673,000 tons, down 6.8% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 986,000 tons, up 2.8% from January 23 [5]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper increased by 765 CNY/ton this week [6]. - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [6]. Group 4: Smelting and Production - China's electrolytic copper production in January 2026 was 1.1793 million tons, up 0.1% month-on-month and 16.3% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price as of January 30, 2026, was -50.30 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.3 USD/ton from January 23 [7]. Group 5: Demand Insights - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw an increase in operating rate to 59.46%, up 0.75 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to decline year-on-year by 31.6% in February, 6.5% in March, and increase by 4.0% in April [8]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of January 30, 2026, the open interest for SHFE copper active contracts was 223,000 lots, down 2.6% from the previous week [9]. - The non-commercial net long position on COMEX was 48,000 lots, down 8.0% from the previous week [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company is planning a significant asset restructuring to acquire minority stakes in its subsidiary, Tefu International, to enhance its overseas building materials business and improve profitability [4][5][6]. Group 1: Asset Restructuring - The company announced a suspension of trading on January 15, 2026, to plan a major asset restructuring involving the acquisition of minority stakes in Tefu International through share issuance and cash payment [4]. - The restructuring aims to increase the company's ownership in Tefu International from 51.55% to 100% by purchasing shares from 24 specific investors at a price of 10.80 yuan per share [6][7]. - The total amount of funds raised through this issuance will not exceed 100% of the transaction price for the asset purchase, and the success of the fundraising will not affect the asset acquisition [6][7]. Group 2: Business Expansion and Financial Impact - Tefu International has established a core business system of "tiles + sanitary ware + glass" and has expanded its production capacity across seven African countries, with a projected tile sales volume of approximately 172 million square meters in 2024, capturing 14.3% of the African tile market [8]. - The overseas building materials segment is expected to contribute significantly to the company's revenue and profit, with projected revenue and net profit for Tefu International in 2025 being 8.19 billion yuan and 1.47 billion yuan, respectively, which could add 760 million yuan to the company's net profit [8]. - The company is also investing approximately 94.72 million USD in a float glass production project in Ghana to further expand its overseas building materials business [8]. Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Price Increase - The price of lithium carbonate has been rising since the second half of 2025 due to supply disruptions and strong demand, which is expected to further boost the company's profits [9]. - The company's associate, Lanke Lithium Industry, achieved a lithium carbonate production and sales volume of 32,000 tons each in the first nine months of 2025, with a revenue of 1.92 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decline of 13.5% [9]. - The net profit margin for Lanke Lithium Industry improved from 24% in the previous year to 32% in 2025, contributing 270 million yuan to the company's net profit, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [9].

Group 1 - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21-31.5 million yuan for 2025, indicating a turnaround from losses in the previous year [4] - The company expects a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses to be 14.4-21.6 million yuan for 2025, also showing a recovery from losses [4] - The price recovery of photoinitiators and improved industry dynamics are expected to enhance the company's performance throughout 2025 [5] Group 2 - The average sales prices of key photoinitiator products such as TPO, 907, and 184 are projected to increase by 14.7%, 18.1%, and 21.2% respectively in 2025 [5] - The company's quarterly net profit is expected to improve sequentially, with Q4 2025 net profit projected to be between 18.28-28.28 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 55%-140% [5] - The company is involved in the establishment of the Tianjin Ruiwu Equity Investment Fund, which has seen significant profit increases from its investment in Hengkun New Materials, contributing to the company's investment income [5] Group 3 - New photoinitiator projects are entering trial production, strengthening the company's leading position in the industry [6] - The company’s subsidiary Hongyuan Tiancheng has commenced trial production of a project with an annual capacity of 350 tons of hydroxyketone series photoinitiators [6] - Another subsidiary, Hongrun Chemical, has started trial production of an 8000 tons/year photoinitiator H4 ketone project, while Shandong Jiuri Chemical's project for 18,340 tons/year of photopolymer materials and photoresist intermediates has also entered trial production [6]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's overall performance in 2025 showed a decline in revenue and net profit, with total revenue decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year to $94.83 billion and Non-GAAP net profit down by 26.4% to $5.86 billion [4] Group 1: Automotive Business Performance - In Q4 2025, Tesla's global delivery volume decreased by 15.6% year-on-year and 15.9% quarter-on-quarter to 418,000 units, with automotive revenue declining by 10.6% year-on-year and 16.6% quarter-on-quarter to $17.69 billion [5] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles was approximately $41,000, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.6% [5] - The automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, improved by 4.3 percentage points year-on-year and 2.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 17.9%, primarily due to optimization in sales region structure [5] Group 2: Energy Business Performance - In Q4 2025, Tesla's energy storage installation volume increased by 29% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter to 14.2 GWh, with energy business revenue rising by 25.4% year-on-year and 12.4% quarter-on-quarter to $3.84 billion [5] - The gross margin for the energy business was 28.6%, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.8 percentage points [5] - The outlook for the energy business remains positive, driven by the launch of Megapack 3, Megablock, and the ramp-up of the Shanghai energy storage factory [5] Group 3: AI Transition and Future Outlook - Tesla is expected to focus on AI transformation across its business segments, with the rollout sequence anticipated to be Robo-series, Unsupervised FSD, and robotics [6] - The Robotaxi fleet has rapidly scaled to 500 vehicles as of January 29, 2026, with plans for the Cybercab to enter mass production in Q2 2026 [6] - The management has indicated that by the end of 2026, Robotaxi services will expand to several major cities in the U.S., supported by Tesla's comprehensive charging, service, and channel network [6]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 1）低基数+内码切换完成：25年12月内码切换完成、渠道库存理顺后出现改善迹象（12月公司羊奶粉及 牛奶粉市场份额均实现同比增长；一段产品会员数环比增长），以及25年业绩低基数，26年公司国内业务 收入有望温和改善。2）海外业务顺利推进：海外业务是公司重要增长引擎，中东（贡献海外近半业 绩）、沙特（潜在空间最大市场）等市场稳定；25年下半年拓展的东南亚市场，由专人统筹且聚焦高端客 群，其中印度市场25年启动前期工作，预计27年正式推出产品；北美市场更换团队后逐步起量。渠道方 面，佳贝艾特已成功进入海外医药渠道，覆盖传统商超、电商等多元场景；研发端同步开展当地医药研 发，进一步强化海外业务竞争力。26年公司海外业务收入有望维持快速增长。 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 氢氨醇：1月30日，中共中央政治局就前瞻布局和发展未来产业进行了集体学习。"十五五"期间，基于中 国未来产业、26年欧盟碳关税双重利好加持下，看好氢氨醇统筹、规模化、超前建设，碳、氢等相关政 策、也可与化工板块形成轮动； 太空光伏：讨论技术和基本面意义不大，当前市场流动性充裕，且商业航天是主线之一、光伏板块机构持 仓较低，相关行情或将具有一定持续性； 权重股反弹：经过一段时间整体调整后，权重股标的股价均有一定性价比，具有一定配置价值。 （2）可持续波段性操作： AIDC电源：关注国产算力机会，看好国内AIDC建设，亦可配合AI应用形成板块轮动；海外层面HVDC方 案放量、SST技术合作进展有望兑现； 户储：英国150亿英镑"温暖家庭计划"预计到2030年将新增安装300万户的光伏，叠加美国极端天气、澳洲 户储补贴政策等催化，板块估值有望持续提升； 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限 ...

Group 1 - Core viewpoint one: The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend in January 2026, with major broad-based indices rising, supported by long-term capital and stabilizing economic expectations [4] - Core viewpoint two: The spring market is still expected to be promising, although a short-term correction may occur before the Spring Festival due to tightening liquidity and decreased trading enthusiasm [5] - Core viewpoint three: In the spring market, small-cap stocks typically perform better, with a focus on growth and cyclical sectors, particularly in electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and communications [6] Group 2 - The Hong Kong market is advised to maintain a "growth + value" barbell strategy, benefiting from earnings recovery, improved liquidity, and supportive policies, with a structural rebound expected in the first quarter [7]

特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 发布日期：2026-02-01 免责声明 2025年以来，石化行业从简单的"减油增化"到强调明确未来高附加值转化的方向，标志着政策进入新阶 段，随着全球石化产能的调整与重组及国内治理"内卷式"竞争行动的展开，未来低价恶性竞争有望被遏 制。炼化方面，炼化扩能接近尾声，炼油红线约束下行业供需有望改善，随着"油转化"、"油转特"加速， 炼化行业有望高质量发展。化纤方面，涤纶长丝新增产能较少，产能结构性优化加速，我们看好龙头企业 市占率和市场竞争力持续增强。在"反内卷"政策持续推进背景下，大炼化行业供需有望持续改善，看好大 炼化行业景气度持续修复。 风险分析： 上游资本开支增速不及预期、原油和天然气价格大幅波动。 全球深海资源战略价值凸显，"三 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 截至2026年1月30日，宽基指数来看，中证500、中证1000、创业板指处于估值分位数"适中"等级，上证指 数、上证50、沪深300处于估值分位数"危险"等级。 中信一级行业分类来看，食品饮料、非银行金融处于估值分位数"安全"等级。 截面波动率来看，沪深300、中证500、中证1000指数成分股横截面波动率环比前一周上升，短期Alpha环 境好转。 时间序列上来看，最近一周沪深300指数成分股时间序列波动率环比前一周上升，Alpha环境好转；中证 500中证指数成分股时间序列波动率环比前一周无变化，Alpha环境保持不变；1000指数成分股时间序列波 动率环比前一周下降，Alpha环境恶化。 资金面跟踪： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周市场核心观点： ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 2026年1月，石油石化指数（中信分类，下同）与基础化工指数涨幅分别为14.9%和10.1%，分别位于中信 分类所有一级行业的第3位和第6位，反映了市场对于化工行业修复的预期。宏观层面来看，PPI数据呈现 积极信号，25年7月以来我国PPI同比降幅持续收窄，25年10月以来我国PPI环比持续改善，显示出工业品 价格端的压力正在释放。同时，中国化工品价格指数（CCPI）近期持续回升。截至1月29日，CCPI指数相 较于2025年年末上涨4.2%。伴随着价格回升，化工企业盈利能力有望得到修复，同时行业景气已进入上 升通道。 化工行业呈现"东升西落"，我国化工企业全球竞争力持续增强 受制于能源成本及环保压力，欧洲企业经营的海外化工产能面临较大的经营压力，部分装置出现减产或关 停。根据欧洲化学工业理事会（Cefic）所发布的报告，2022-2025年期间，欧洲化工行业关闭产能增加6 倍，4年内累计损失产能3700万吨，约占欧洲化工总产能的9%。与此同时，我国化工企业凭借完善的产业 链配套和能源成本优势，出口量实现显著提升。根据海关总署数据，2025年化学原料及化学制品制造业出 口数量指数 ...