门店端尝试打造新模型，冻干品类并入带来新增量 门店主业方面，为应对终端需求偏淡的经营压力，公司主动关停亏损门店，尝试调整单店模型，扩充非卤 味特产、茶饮、轻餐饮等新品类；并通过门店内补充加热环节，打造热卤氛围。新店型已在南昌部分门店 推广，单店表现方面获得明显提升。2025年公司门店数有望逐步企稳，后续新开门店预计延用新门店模 型。此外，公司于25年9月以4.95亿元收购立兴食品51%股权，立兴食品为冻干品类龙头企业，技术储备扎 实，业务兼顾B/C两端，已进入零食量贩、山姆等多个渠道，收入保持较快增速，利润端表现良好。立兴 食品的并入一方面可带来业绩端的增量，另一方面冻干涉及到零食/茶饮/餐饮等多种产品，可助力主业门 店端丰富新品类，亦有望降低热卤模式的运输成本。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视 ...

Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 254.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 37.86 billion yuan, up 55.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 14.57 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 57% increase year-on-year and an 11% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] - The non-recurring net profit for the first three quarters was 34.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.7% [4] Production Volume - In Q3 2025, gold production increased by 7% quarter-on-quarter, while copper production decreased by 6% [5] - For the first three quarters, gold production totaled 65 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year, with Q3 production at 24 tons [5] - Copper production for the first three quarters was 830,000 tons, a 5% year-on-year increase, with Q3 production at 260,000 tons, impacted by flooding at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine [5] Price Trends - In Q3 2025, the average spot price of gold was $3,492 per ounce, a 40% year-on-year increase, while the average copper price was $9,864 per ton, a 6% year-on-year increase [6] - Gold business gross profit accounted for 46% of the company's total gross profit in Q3 2025, up from 30% in 2024 [6] Cost Analysis - The sales cost of gold concentrate in Q3 2025 was 195 yuan per gram, an increase of 10 yuan per gram quarter-on-quarter [7] - The cost of copper concentrate was 22,128 yuan per ton, up 952 yuan per ton year-on-year, with electrolytic copper costing 36,544 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,261 yuan per ton year-on-year [7] - Cost increases were attributed to declining ore grades, increased transportation distances, and transitional costs from newly acquired companies [7] Industry Outlook - The weakening of the US dollar's credit and the onset of a US interest rate cut cycle are expected to support rising gold and copper prices [8] - For gold, central banks are likely to continue increasing their gold reserves amid global uncertainties, with ETFs also expected to increase their gold holdings [9] - For copper, while short-term pressures may exist, supply tightness is anticipated due to Freeport's planned production cuts, with downstream demand expected to recover in Q4 2025 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The three listed insurance companies in China have announced significant profit growth forecasts for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by improved equity investment returns and favorable market conditions [5][6]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - China Life Insurance expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 156.8-177.7 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50%-70%. The estimated net profit for Q3 2025 is projected to be 115.9-136.8 billion yuan, with a growth of 75%-106% [5]. - New China Life Insurance anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29.99-34.12 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45%-65%. The Q3 2025 net profit is expected to be 15.2-19.3 billion yuan, with a growth of 58%-101% [5]. - China Pacific Insurance forecasts a net profit of 37.5-42.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 40%-60%. The estimated Q3 2025 net profit is projected to be 13-18.3 billion yuan, with a growth of 57%-122% [5]. Group 2: Performance Drivers - The strong earnings growth is attributed to a recovery in the stock market, which has significantly boosted equity investment returns. The CSI 300 Index rose by 17.9% in Q3, an increase of 1.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year [6]. - As of the end of September, the yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 21 basis points compared to the end of June, which is expected to positively impact China Life's service fees in Q3 [6]. - New China Life's acquisition of a stake in Hangzhou Bank is anticipated to contribute positively to its financial results due to a change in accounting treatment for the investment [6]. - China Pacific Insurance benefits from a reduction in the impact of major disasters and improvements in its non-auto insurance segment, leading to enhanced underwriting profits [6]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Trends - As of the end of H1 2025, the total stock investment of five major listed insurance companies reached 1.8 trillion yuan, a growth of 28.9% from the beginning of the year, with stock investments now accounting for 9.3% of total investment assets, an increase of 1.5 percentage points [7]. - The proportion of total invested assets in TPL stocks for these companies is 5.6%, up by 0.3 percentage points from the start of the year, indicating a significant increase in asset flexibility [7]. - New China Life's stock investment proportion is 8.9%, while China Life's is 6.7%, both showing increases from the beginning of the year, suggesting a trend towards higher equity exposure among insurance firms [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the strong performance of Huayou Cobalt in Q3 2025, driven by integrated operations and rising cobalt prices, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability and growth potential [4][5]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Huayou Cobalt reported revenue of 58.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.22 billion yuan, up 39.6% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 4.01 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.9% increase [4]. - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 21.74 billion yuan, marking a 40.9% year-on-year growth and a 12.4% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.505 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Operational Highlights - The integrated operational advantages are evident, with nickel wet-process capacity gradually being released, leading to sustained overproduction. In the first half of 2025, MHP shipments reached approximately 120,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of over 40%, with expectations for continued overproduction in Q3 [5]. - Cobalt prices have shown significant recovery, with average prices in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 being 192,000, 239,000, and 267,000 yuan per ton, respectively, primarily benefiting from the export ban on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. Project Developments - The Pomalaa project, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel metal, has commenced construction, while the Sorowako project, with a capacity of 60,000 tons, is progressing well [6]. - A lithium sulfate project in Zimbabwe, expected to produce 50,000 tons annually, is in the equipment installation phase and is anticipated to be completed by the end of the year, which will further reduce lithium salt production costs [6]. - The first phase of the ternary precursor project in Indonesia, with a capacity of 50,000 tons, has achieved bulk supply, and the first phase of the cathode material project in Hungary, with a capacity of 25,000 tons, is expected to be completed within the year [6]. Market Outlook - The cobalt export quota system from the Democratic Republic of Congo, effective from October 16, 2025, allows for exports of 3,625 tons, 7,250 tons, and 7,250 tons for the last quarter of 2025, with a total export capacity of 96,600 tons from 2026 to 2027 [7]. - Based on the 2024 cobalt production in the Democratic Republic of Congo, there is an estimated reduction of 141,600 tons in supply from February 22 to October 15, 2025. Assuming stable demand, the cobalt supply-demand balance for 2025-2027 is projected to be -75,000 tons, -33,000 tons, and -33,000 tons, respectively [7].

Group 1: Insurance Sector - Three listed insurance companies reported significant earnings growth for the first three quarters of 2025, exceeding expectations [3] - As of the end of H1 2025, the stock asset proportion of five listed insurance companies reached 9.3%, the highest in nearly a decade, indicating a strong investment performance [3] - The upward trend in the equity market is expected to boost the investment performance of insurance companies, with high dividend strategies supporting net investment income [3] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - China's fiscal policy is ramping up investment, particularly in major projects, to support steady growth in infrastructure investment [3] - There has been a noticeable increase in the commencement of significant projects, with the fourth quarter entering a critical construction phase [3] Group 3: Electric and New Energy Sector - The electric new energy sector is experiencing increased volatility due to fluctuating tariff policies, with storage and lithium battery segments remaining the most promising [4] - High-tech developments, such as NVIDIA's 800VDC white paper, highlight the importance of solid-state transformer technology in the next generation of power distribution [4] - The current low stock prices in the power equipment and photovoltaic sectors are attributed to relatively weak industry conditions, with market trends expected to influence their performance in Q4 2025 [4] Group 4: Mining and Materials - Zijin Mining reported a record high net profit for Q3 2025, with a 55.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters [6] - Huayou Cobalt achieved a 39.6% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 revenue growing by 40.9% year-on-year [6] - Cangge Mining's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 2.401 billion, with a 47.26% increase in net profit, driven by rising prices of potassium chloride and copper [7]

点击注册小程序 2、建发物业2025H1实现营业收入18.2亿元，同比增长13.8%；实现毛利4.6亿元，同比增长13.8%；毛利率 为25.2%，同比持平；归母净利润2.2亿元，同比增加13.2%。 点评： 关联房企经营优秀，基础物管增长保障性强，社区增值表现亮眼 1)关联方销售表现优秀，并保持拿地强度。2025H1建发物业物业管理收入10.6亿元，同比+23.1%，占总收 入比重58.0%，物管业务仍是最大的收入来源且保持较快增长。根据克而瑞数据，1-9月公司关联方建发房 产实现全口径销售金额956亿元，同比+12.1%；1-9月新增土地货值804亿元，排名行业第7。建发房产在销 售和拿地方面保持了较高的强度，未来仍有较为充足的物管项目交付，建发物业物管业务增长保障性较 强。 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视 ...

Overall Viewpoint - The electric new energy sector is experiencing increased volatility due to fluctuating tariff policies. In Q3 2025, China's energy storage lithium battery shipments are projected to reach 165 GWh, with a total of 430 GWh expected from Q1 to Q3, and an annual forecast of 580 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 75%. Energy storage and lithium batteries remain the most prosperous sub-sectors within the electric new energy industry [4]. Group 1: Solid-State Batteries - There are significant advancements in solid-state battery technology, including improvements in interface contact through iodine ions, polymer electrolyte frameworks, and fluorinated polyether materials. The market is shifting from equipment speculation to material speculation, indicating that this trend will likely continue [4]. Group 2: Energy Storage - Due to domestic and international policy factors, energy storage demand is being anticipated earlier. The industry is expected to maintain a favorable outlook through 2025-2026. Current stock prices may continue to experience high-level fluctuations, with investment preferences leaning towards companies that resonate with AIDC power sources and photovoltaic "anti-involution" logic [4]. Group 3: Lithium Battery Materials - According to SMM data, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been rising, reaching an average of 75,500 yuan per ton as of October 17. Some negative electrode companies have increased the prices of graphite negative electrode products by 2,000-3,000 yuan per ton, primarily due to rising petroleum coke prices. Battery manufacturers are still under pressure to lower prices, while leading companies in lithium iron phosphate and separators are maintaining good capacity utilization rates, with orders flowing to small and medium-sized enterprises [4]. Group 4: Power Equipment and Photovoltaics - Currently, the stock prices of power equipment and photovoltaic sectors are relatively low, primarily due to the industry's weaker outlook. Market trends will determine the direction of these two sectors in Q4 2025, influenced by defensive factors and the preliminary results of photovoltaic "anti-involution." There are signs of improvement, but a definitive trend has yet to form, warranting close monitoring [6]. Group 5: Policy Changes - Recent announcements from the Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration regarding adjustments to value-added tax policies for wind power have garnered market attention. The cancellation of the 50% immediate refund policy for land-based wind power is noted, while the benefits for offshore wind power will be retained from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027. This policy change is expected to have a slight impact on the internal rate of return (IRR) of wind power projects, but the overall effect may be less significant than the marketization requirements outlined in document "136" [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increased financial support from the government to boost infrastructure investment in China, which has seen a decline in growth rates since Q2 2025. The focus is on the rapid deployment of new policy financial tools and additional funding measures to stimulate effective investment and promote steady economic growth [4]. Group 1: Financial Tools and Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital. This initiative is expected to accelerate project construction and increase effective investment [5]. - As of October 17, the Agricultural Development Bank reported that the amount of new policy financial tools deployed exceeded 100 billion yuan, which could potentially drive an investment of 2.5 trillion yuan based on a 20% capital ratio [5]. - The Ministry of Finance allocated an additional 500 billion yuan from the local government debt limit to support local financial capacity and address existing government investment project debts [6]. Group 2: Debt and Project Initiatives - The Ministry of Finance also announced the early issuance of the 2026 local government debt limit to support key projects, with approximately 3.68 trillion yuan of new special bonds issued by September 30, 2025, which is 83.6% of the annual limit [7]. - Multiple regions, including Xinjiang, Jiangsu, and Anhui, have initiated significant project construction meetings, with hundreds of projects set to commence, indicating a push towards a construction surge in Q4 2025 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising prices of potassium chloride and copper, despite a decline in lithium carbonate sales volume [4][5]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.35% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.751 billion yuan, up 47.26% year-on-year [4]. - The adjusted net profit was 2.756 billion yuan, reflecting a 49.27% increase year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded a single-quarter revenue of 723 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 28.71%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 35.76% [4]. Product Performance - Potassium chloride sales volume for the first three quarters was 783,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, primarily due to the release of approximately 80,000 tons from national reserves [5]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride was approximately 2,920 yuan/ton, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.9% [5]. - Lithium carbonate sales volume decreased to 4,800 tons, down 53.0% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 67,300 yuan/ton, a decline of 24.6% [5]. Investment Gains - The company reported investment income of 1.95 billion yuan from its stake in Julong Copper Industry, a year-on-year increase of 43.1% [5]. - Julong Copper's copper production reached 142,500 tons, up 16.8% year-on-year, with sales volume of 142,400 tons, an 18.1% increase [5]. - The average selling price for copper was 83,000 yuan/ton, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year increase, with a net profit per ton of 45,000 yuan, up 22.8% [5]. Project Developments - The company’s subsidiary, Cangge Lithium Industry, resumed production on October 11, 2025, following the acquisition of mining rights for various minerals [6]. - The company adjusted its 2025 lithium carbonate production and sales plan to 8,510 tons each [6]. - New projects include the completion of contracts for a photovoltaic power station at the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project and progress in the construction of a lithium hydroxide production line [6].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周A股市场回调 受风险偏好下降等因素的影响，本周A股市场有所回调。受中美关系不确定性加大、市场情绪回落等因素 的影响，A股市场本周整体下行，主要宽基指数普遍下跌。在主要宽基指数中，本周科创50跌幅最大，跌 幅为6.2%，而上证50跌幅最小，跌幅为0.2%。目前万得全A估值处于2010年以来历史偏高位置。 本周市场风格有所分化，价值风格表现较好。从市场风格指数来看，本周市场风格相对偏向价值。其中， 大盘价值（+2.1%）涨幅最大，中盘成长（-5.8%）跌幅最大。相对而言，市场风格偏向价值，这或许与近 期市场情绪下降，风险偏好较低有关。 短期调整，无需悲观 风险分析： 海外风险扰动超预期；历史规律出现失效；市场情绪大幅下降。 ...