1、价格端：收益率曲线"陡峭化"或将持续，信用风险因素仍值得关注 2025年美债收益率整体呈震荡走势，收益率曲线呈现"陡峭化"特征。在降息推动下，短端美债收益率显著 下行；而受经济前景预期、美国财政可持续性担忧等因素影响，长端收益率整体维持高位波动。展望2026 年，美债收益率走势预计延续"陡峭化"格局：降息路径趋于明朗或推动短端收益率进一步下行，而关税政 策不确定性、美国财政可持续性等因素会对长端美债收益率产生扰动，长端收益率预计保持高位震荡或小 幅上行。此外，境外债相关政策调整、汇率波动等因素也会给中资美元债收益率带来阶段性波动机会，建 议关注中资美元债的资本利得机会。截至2026年1月9日，iBoxx中资美元债指数收益率达4.82%，离岸-在 岸市场溢价仍然存在，高票息机会也值得关注。 2、供给端：供给量结构性分化，总供给难以大幅放量 2026年中资美元债到期规模较2025年小幅下降，"借新还旧"逻辑下，供给规模可能有所收缩。此外，央行 上调跨境融资宏观审慎调节参数、开展绿色外债业务试点等政策，有望带动部分新发行量。但由于中资美 元债融资成本仍高于境内，预计2026年供给整体保持温和，难以大幅放量。结构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to acquire 51% of the equity of Tangyuan County Hairuite Engineering Plastic Co., Ltd. for cash, which will make Hairuite a subsidiary of the company after the acquisition is completed [4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The total assessed value of 100% equity of Hairuite is 25.3288 million yuan, with the final transaction price set at 25.26 million yuan. The company will use its own funds to acquire 51% of Hairuite's equity for a transfer price of 12.8826 million yuan [5]. - Hairuite specializes in the synthesis and modification of polyether ether ketone (PEEK) and polyarylether ketone (PAEK) resins, with an annual production capacity of over 200 tons of high-quality PEEK and low-melting point PAEK resins [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Hairuite's revenue and net profit for 2024 and the first eight months of 2025 are projected to be 4.78 million yuan and -1.08 million yuan, and 7.58 million yuan and -0.519 million yuan, respectively [5]. Group 3: Industry Insights - PEEK is a high-performance material with excellent physical and chemical properties, widely used in various industries such as aerospace, automotive, electronics, energy, and medical devices. Its melting point is 343°C, and it maintains high wear resistance and low friction coefficients at 250°C [6]. - The comprehensive performance of PEEK, including heat resistance, wear resistance, fatigue resistance, and chemical resistance, positions it well for continued growth in high-end manufacturing, indicating significant future development potential [6].

Group 1: Fixed Income - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to exhibit a "steepening" characteristic in 2026, with short-term yields declining due to anticipated interest rate cuts, while long-term yields remain volatile due to economic outlook and fiscal sustainability concerns [5] Group 2: Real Estate - Recent publications in "Qiushi" focus on real estate and urban renewal, improving and stabilizing market expectations; the central bank has lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points, which supports local state-owned enterprises in acquiring existing residential properties for affordable housing [6] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals - Global copper inventories at major exchanges have reached the highest level since July 2013; the market has priced in the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut rates in January 2026, with tight procurement of copper concentrate reflected in low TC spot prices [7] Group 4: Oil and Chemical - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) held a work meeting to review its "14th Five-Year Plan" and set priorities for 2026, aiming to build a world-class energy group with distinct marine characteristics [9] Group 5: Basic Chemicals - The implementation of "AI+" in chemical research and manufacturing is expected to drive rapid growth in small nucleic acid drugs in 2026, supported by government initiatives promoting the integration of AI and manufacturing [10] Group 6: New Energy and Environmental Protection - The State Grid's fixed asset investment is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," a 40% increase from the previous period, with an expected annual compound growth rate of 7%, indicating a focus on counter-cyclical adjustments [10]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 一、近期《求是》集中刊文聚焦房地产和城市更新，改善和稳定楼市预期 1）1月2日，《求是》杂志刊文《改善和稳定房地产市场预期》，提出"房地产带有显著的金融资产属性… 加强预期管理对稳定房地产市场具有特殊重要性", "政策要一次性给足，不能采取添油战术，导致市场与 政策陷入博弈状态"。 1月15日，央行宣布下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点。各类再贷款一年期利率从1.5%下调 到1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步调整；这意味着2024年5月央行创设的3000亿元保障性住房再贷款利率降 至1.25%，进一步支持地方国企收购存量商品房用于保障性住房；此外，央行会同金融监管总局将商业用 房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至30%，支持 ...

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) aims to become a world-class energy resource group with distinct marine characteristics during the 14th Five-Year Plan and is setting ambitious goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan [4]. Group 1: Achievements and Future Goals - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, CNOOC made significant progress in energy security, quality improvement, and technological advancements, successfully completing major objectives [4]. - For the 15th Five-Year Plan, CNOOC will focus on high-quality development, enhancing core competitiveness, and ensuring energy security while addressing the challenges posed by international oil price fluctuations [4][5]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives for the 15th Five-Year Plan - CNOOC plans to strengthen its oil and gas core business, enhance exploration and production capabilities, and accelerate overseas production [5]. - The company will refine its refining, chemical, and new materials sectors, optimize product structures, and improve fertilizer production [5]. - CNOOC aims to strategically develop "electricity-hydrogen-carbon" businesses and explore marine mineral resources [5]. Group 3: Operational Focus for 2026 - In 2026, CNOOC will prioritize domestic oil and gas production, enhance investment efficiency, and promote innovation through AI applications [6]. - The company will implement reforms to improve organizational management and ensure safety and environmental protection [7]. - CNOOC will strengthen compliance management and risk prevention measures, particularly in overseas operations [7].

Overall Viewpoint - The National Grid is expected to reach a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," representing a 40% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan," with an average annual compound growth rate of 7%, slightly exceeding expectations. This investment is driven by counter-cyclical adjustments, benefiting areas such as ultra-high voltage, main distribution networks, smart technology, and key projects like hydropower and clean energy bases [4]. Group 1: Hydrogen and Ammonia - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," the hydrogen and ammonia sector is expected to benefit from China's future industry developments and the EU carbon tariff in 2026. Shanghai is progressing rapidly, with plans to establish an international green fuel refueling and trading center by 2030, targeting a million-ton level for green methanol and biofuels [5]. Group 2: AIDC Power Supply - The domestic AIDC construction is promising and can align with AI applications for sector rotation. Internationally, the HVDC solutions are expected to expand, and progress in SST technology cooperation is anticipated. The capital expenditure for North American data centers in 2027 will be assessed during the US stock annual report period [5]. Group 3: Power Grid - A resonant pattern is expected to form between overseas and domestic power grid investments, with positive expectations for both. The construction of the hydropower grid and the integration of power and computing resources are areas that require close monitoring due to lower expectations [5]. Group 4: Lithium Battery and Energy Storage - The demand side for lithium batteries is currently competitive, with domestic energy storage tenders for 2026 still needing tracking. The overseas energy storage market is influenced by North American computing and electricity shortages, while domestic storage follows policy expectations and lithium material price trends. The lithium battery industry is currently thriving, but after the price increase expectations are realized, stock prices may lack upward momentum, making it essential to focus on new technologies like solid-state batteries [5].

Group 1 - The central bank reported a significant increase in new RMB loans in December 2025, totaling 910 billion, with an annual growth rate of 6.4%, down 1.1 percentage points from the beginning of the year. The total new RMB loans for 2025 reached 16.3 trillion, a decrease of 1.8 trillion year-on-year [4][5] - In December, corporate loans increased by 1.07 trillion, up 580 billion year-on-year, indicating that corporate loans continue to play a stabilizing role in loan issuance. The "stabilizing investment" policy in 2026 is expected to further boost corporate lending [5] - The total social financing (社融) in December was 2.2 trillion, with an annual growth rate of 8.3%, reflecting a decrease of 645.7 billion year-on-year [8] Group 2 - The M2 money supply growth rate rose to 8.5% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, driven by increased fiscal spending and a significant rise in non-bank deposits. M1 growth rate, however, fell to 3.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month due to high base effects [9] - The structural policies are focused on enhancing the effectiveness of financial tools, with measures such as loan interest subsidies and guarantees being implemented to support economic recovery and investment in key sectors [10] - The demand for residential loans remains under pressure, with a negative growth of 916 billion in December, continuing the trend of negative growth observed since October. The total residential loans for 2025 were 441.7 billion, a decrease of 2.28 trillion year-on-year, indicating weak demand in the retail sector [6][7]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 市场观点纷繁芜杂，光大研究荟萃本周重点报告，涵盖总量、行业、公司研究，为您筛选有价值的 声音。 每周六早8点，"研选"助您快速厘清投资"点线面"！ 发布日期： 2 0 2 6 / 0 1 / 1 2 分析师：张旭 行业研究 9个热点问题看理财新叙事——银行理财2025年回顾与2026年展望 总量研究 引入混合神经网络的中长期国债收益率预测——量化学习笔记之二 本文模型包含宏观经济、货币政策、市场情绪等输入变量来丰富学习维度，在 长短期记忆神经网络（LSTM）的基础上，引入门控神经网络（GRU）、卷积 神经网络（CNN）和注意力机制（ATT）构建多层混合神经网络模型，最优模 型预测：相较于2 0 2 6年1月末，2月末的十年期国债收益率将 ...

Group 1 - Leading photovoltaic module companies are accelerating their entry into the energy storage sector, with companies like Canadian Solar, Trina Solar, Jinko Solar, JA Solar, and LONGi Green Energy making significant moves in this area [3][4] - The energy storage market is a key focus for photovoltaic companies, with both commercial and residential storage sectors being targeted for development [3] Group 2 - Photovoltaic companies have two main advantages in entering the energy storage field: strong customer and channel alignment, and established global sales and service systems that facilitate market expansion [4] - The trend of integrating photovoltaic and energy storage projects is becoming more prevalent, especially in countries with underdeveloped electricity markets and in mature markets where bundled projects can secure higher Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) prices [4] Group 3 - The growth potential for photovoltaic companies in the energy storage sector is significant, with three key indicators to assess their success: commitment to entering the storage market, expansion in overseas markets over the next 1-2 years, and the ability to convert channel, brand, and service advantages into profit contributions [5]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 速器等研发方向。此外，公司24年收购广东浦森，主营针筒等点胶耗材，应用于光伏、液晶面板、锂电池等领 域。双方客户、产品互补，且共享资源实现技术协同，提升公司整体竞争力。 报告摘要 高精度智能点胶设备排头兵 公司成立于15年，22年6月挂牌新三板，23年10月北交所上市。公司是从事高精度智能点胶设备、点胶阀及其 核心部件产研销的技术驱动型高新技术企业，且是国内为数不多的具备智能点胶设备核心零部件自研自产能力 的企业，曾荣获国家级专精特新"小巨人"企业等荣誉称号。 产品体系完善，掘金苹果产业链 公司产品体系覆盖核心零部件到点胶整机应用，点胶阀是核心优势产品，包括精密螺杆阀、压电喷射阀、气动 式喷雾阀、柱塞阀等全系列点胶阀；点胶设备以点胶阀及其核心配件为 ...