点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 1月15日，国家电网宣布，"十五五"期间固定资产投资预计达4万亿元，较"十四五"时期增长40%。这笔投 资核心落点在于构建更智能、更绿色的电网体系，将带动新型电力系统全产业链协同发展，1月16日，国 家电网表示，立足2026年"十五五"规划开局之年，国家电网明确了新一轮重大工程建设任务。下一步，将 开工建设浙江特高压交流环网、攀西特高压交流工程、辽宁清原抽水蓄能电站二期等重点项目，加快推进 大同—怀来—天津南、阿坝—成都东、蒙西—京津冀等特高压工程及克拉玛依750千伏输变电工程建设进 度，确保陕北—安徽、甘肃—浙江等特高压输电工程，以及河南洛宁、河北易县抽水蓄能电站按期投运。 国家电网4万亿投资主要聚焦于电网及储能领域，26年的重点工程集中于特高压及抽水蓄能等方面，在新 能源装机快速增长的背景下，通过加快电网及储能领域建设推进新能源消纳，推动能源结构向清洁低碳转 型。 风险提示： 基建投资不及预期；房地产需求恢复不及预期；原燃料价格上涨；相关测算不准确的风险。 发布日期： 2026- 01-19 免责声明 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资 ...

本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周上证指数窄幅震荡 本周上证指数窄幅震荡。从主要宽基指数来看，本周A股主要宽基指数涨多跌少，科创50、中证500涨幅居 前，上证指数小幅收跌，上证50、沪深300跌幅居前。从估值来看，当前科创50、万得全A等指数估值分位 数相对偏高，截至2026年1月16日，其2010年以来PE(TTM)分位数均高于90%。 本周重要事件回顾 政策方面，央行宣布推出八项政策措施，聚焦结构性工具"优化加量降价"；沪深北交易所提高融资保证金 比例，将投资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金最低比例从80%提高到100%；居民换房退个税政策期限进一 步延续至2027年底；此外，三部门联合召开新能源汽车行业企业座谈会，部署规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩 序相关工作。 经济金融数据方面，央行发布2025年 ...

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - Recent economic policies, including structural interest rate cuts, are expected to support economic growth, potentially leading to a "good start" in the first quarter of 2026, although final performance will depend on forthcoming data [5] - The financial market policies have moderated previously overheated sectors, indicating that the market may not sustain its rapid upward trend and could transition into a more volatile phase [5] Fund Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market saw an overall increase, while domestic equity markets experienced fluctuations; TMT-themed funds performed well, whereas defense and military-themed funds faced net value declines [5] - There was a notable reduction in passive fund holdings across various broad-based ETFs, with over 130 billion yuan flowing out of large-cap ETFs, while TMT and cyclical theme ETFs attracted over 60 billion yuan in net inflows [5] Economic Data Insights - The economic landscape in 2025 is characterized by a "high before low" trend, with supply outpacing demand and external demand exceeding internal demand [6] - In December 2025, industrial production growth rates increased year-on-year and month-on-month, while fixed asset investment saw a widening decline, and retail sales growth continued to decrease [6] Oil and Geopolitical Factors - Heightened geopolitical tensions in Iran have increased the geopolitical risk premium on oil, contributing to rising oil prices; as of January 16, 2026, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $64.20 and $59.22 per barrel, reflecting increases of 1.9% and 0.7% respectively [7] - The ongoing international instability is likely to provide a favorable foundation for oil price trends in the long term [7] Infrastructure Investment - The State Grid has announced a planned fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, focusing on power grid and energy storage sectors [8] - Key projects for 2026 will concentrate on ultra-high voltage and pumped storage, indicating potential opportunities in power infrastructure orders and renewable energy consumption [8] Power Consumption and Digitalization - In 2025, the total electricity consumption in society increased by 5.0% year-on-year [9] - The State Grid's investment in new power systems is expected to enhance capacity pricing, with projected capacity prices for 2026 estimated at 6.3 cents per kilowatt-hour, a 4-cent increase from the previous year [9] Pharmaceutical Sector Innovations - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors are experiencing a surge driven by innovation, including overseas expansion, AI applications, and new technologies, alongside policy support and seasonal market dynamics [9] - Key focus areas include innovative drugs, CXO services, AI healthcare, brain-computer interfaces, and small nucleic acid drugs, with ongoing attention required on post-JPM conference collaborations and clinical data outcomes [9]

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions in Iran have led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures rising by 1.9% and 0.7% respectively as of January 16, 2026 [2] - OPEC+ has increased production by 2.21 million barrels per day in 2025, but plans to slow down production increases in 2026 to balance oil prices [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 860,000 barrels per day, driven primarily by the chemical sector [4] Group 2 - The "Big Three" Chinese oil companies have demonstrated resilience during the recent oil price fluctuations, with performance exceeding historical levels due to increased production and effective cost control [5] - The ongoing capital expenditure by the "Big Three" is expected to support their long-term growth and adaptation to changing market conditions [5]

Market Overview - The A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology index fell by 0.68%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.11 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 1.97 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 sub-industries [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 2.38%, outperforming the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 0.48 percentage points [4] R&D Progress - Last week, Qinhai Pharmaceutical's GH55 and Innovent Biologics' IBI343 clinical applications were newly undertaken [5] - Sangfor's 608 is currently in Phase III clinical trials; Aosaikang's ASK092 is in Phase II; and Hansoh Pharmaceutical's HS-20093 is in Phase I clinical trials [5] Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is driven by innovation (including overseas expansion, AI, and new technologies), performance validation, policy benefits, and seasonal market movements, with a focus on innovative drugs and CXO in the short term [6] - AI in healthcare and pharmaceuticals, brain-computer interfaces, and small nucleic acid drugs are identified as high-potential sub-themes [6] - Continuous attention is required on the outcomes of collaborations post-JPM conference, clinical data of innovative drugs, and performance realization [6] Investment Strategy for 2026 - The investment focus in the pharmaceutical sector should increasingly emphasize the clinical value logic, addressing clinical needs of patients and doctors, influenced by domestic medical insurance policies and global expansion [7] - The clinical value is expected to command higher premiums, leading to a favorable outlook on the innovative drug supply chain and innovative medical devices [7]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for Q4 2025 indicates a significant "high first, low later" trend, with supply outpacing demand and external demand stronger than internal demand [4][5]. Economic Data Summary - In Q4 2025, the GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while the annual growth rate for 2025 was 5% [4][5]. - The industrial added value for December 2025 increased by 5.2% year-on-year, up from 4.8% in November [4][5]. - Fixed asset investment for the entire year of 2025 saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 3.8%, worsening from a previous decline of 2.6% [4][6]. - Retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 grew by 0.9% year-on-year, down from 1.3% in November, marking a continuous decline over seven months [4][6]. Investment Market Insights - In the bond market, from August 2025 to the present, government bond yields have shown a clear divergence, with short-term yields stable and declining, while long-term yields, especially the 30-year yield, are on an upward trend [7]. - The current loose liquidity and diverging fundamentals suggest a gradually optimistic outlook for the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize around 1.75% in 2026 [7]. - In the convertible bond market, as of January 16, 2026, the China Securities Convertible Bond Index has risen by 5.6%, mirroring the 5.5% increase in the overall index, indicating a strong demand for convertible bonds amid a bullish equity market [7].

Market Overview - The SW public utility sector increased by 0.06% this week, ranking 13th among 31 SW primary sectors. Sub-sectors showed mixed performance: thermal power up by 0.35%, hydropower down by 1.76%, photovoltaic power up by 4.14%, wind power up by 0.22%, comprehensive energy services up by 4.49%, and gas down by 1.17% [4] Price Trends - Domestic and imported thermal coal prices exhibited divergent trends. Domestic Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal price rose by 3 CNY/ton week-on-week, surpassing 700 CNY/ton. In contrast, imported thermal coal in Guangzhou decreased by 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [5] - The average electricity prices in Guangdong and Shanxi increased year-on-year. Monthly agency purchasing costs are on the rise due to higher capacity prices and the entry of new energy mechanisms into the settlement cycle. However, agency purchasing electricity costs have generally decreased nationwide, with only five regions experiencing year-on-year increases [5] Key Events 1. The National Energy Administration released data indicating a 5.0% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption by 2025, with specific increases in various sectors: primary industry up by 9.9%, secondary industry up by 3.7%, tertiary industry up by 8.2%, and urban-rural residential electricity consumption up by 6.3% [6] 2. The State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company announced that by 2025, the capacity demand for the Gansu power grid will be 28.89 million kW, with a reliable capacity of 32.27 million kW, resulting in a capacity supply-demand ratio of 89.53% [6] 3. The State Grid announced a fixed asset investment plan of 4 trillion CNY during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, representing a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, aimed at building a new power system [6] Industry Insights - The State Grid's investment plan emphasizes the importance of digitalization in the new power system. With the decline in thermal coal prices, national thermal power operators are expected to see significant year-on-year increases in profitability per kilowatt-hour [8] - The electricity price remains a critical factor, with market focus on electricity prices and stable supply-demand regions. The green electricity sector is entering the settlement phase under the "136 Document," which may lead to adjustments in new green electricity installations [8] - The overall electricity supply-demand situation is expected to remain loose, continuing the trend from 2025, with pressure on electricity prices. However, the growth in green electricity installations may support the demand for base-load thermal power [8]

Market Performance Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced an overall increase, while the domestic equity market showed mixed fluctuations, with the CSI 500 index rising by 2.18% during the week from January 12 to January 16, 2025 [4] - Among the Shenwan first-level industry indices, the computer, electronics, and non-ferrous metals sectors had the highest gains, while the defense, real estate, and agriculture sectors faced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - A total of 23 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a combined issuance of 19.294 billion units. This included 10 equity funds, 3 bond funds, 7 mixed funds, 1 international (QDII) fund, and 2 FOF funds [5] - Overall, 36 new funds were issued across the market, comprising 17 equity funds, 12 mixed funds, 4 bond funds, and 3 FOF funds [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - The TMT thematic funds showed strong performance this week, while the defense and military industry thematic funds experienced a net value decline. As of January 16, 2026, the net value changes for various thematic funds were as follows: TMT (3.98%), cyclical (2.08%), industry balanced (1.56%), industry rotation (1.30%), new energy (0.81%), consumption (-0.76%), pharmaceuticals (-1.08%), financial real estate (-1.45%), and defense military (-2.71%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - There was a noticeable profit-taking phenomenon in the stock ETF market, with over 130 billion yuan flowing out of various broad-based ETFs. In contrast, thematic ETFs, particularly TMT and cyclical ETFs, attracted significant inflows, totaling over 60 billion yuan [7] - The median return for stock ETFs this week was 0.55%, with a net outflow of 142.72 billion yuan. The median return for Hong Kong stock ETFs was 2.08%, with a net inflow of 10.824 billion yuan [7] - Commodity ETFs had a median return of 2.86%, with a net inflow of 2.988 billion yuan [8] ESG Financial Products Tracking - This week, 21 new green bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 11.811 billion yuan. The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a cumulative issuance scale of 5.21 trillion yuan and a total of 4,502 bonds issued as of January 16, 2026 [9] - The domestic market currently has 211 ESG funds, with a total scale of 159.744 billion yuan. The median net value changes for various ESG fund types this week were: active equity (1.56%), passive equity index (0.32%), and bond ESG funds (0.06%). Funds focused on clean energy, green initiatives, and low-carbon economy themes performed particularly well [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in various industries, particularly in manufacturing and pharmaceuticals, driven by government policies and technological advancements [4][5][6]. Group 1: AI Integration in Manufacturing - The Chinese government has issued policies to promote the integration of AI in manufacturing, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency through technologies like large models and digital twins [4]. - Key players in the chemical industry, such as China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, are developing industry-specific AI models to enhance core business operations [5]. - Companies like Wanhua Chemical are leveraging third-party AI platforms to achieve cost reduction and efficiency in production management and material research [5]. Group 2: Growth of Small Nucleic Acid Drugs - The global market for small nucleic acid drugs has seen significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 217.8%, increasing from $0.1 billion in 2016 to $3.25 billion in 2021 [6]. - Projections indicate that the market for oligonucleotide drugs will exceed $15 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 35% from 2020 to 2025 [6]. - The industry is expected to transition from technological breakthroughs to large-scale commercialization, indicating a promising future for the small nucleic acid drug sector [6]. Group 3: Key Players in Small Nucleic Acid Development - Bluestar Technology has established a comprehensive technology platform for small nucleic acids and peptide drugs, being one of only two global suppliers capable of providing integrated solutions for complex oligonucleotide synthesis [7]. - Lonza Technology is expanding its CDMO services globally, achieving significant progress in partnerships with leading pharmaceutical companies and enhancing its domestic collaborations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting a potential increase in copper prices despite current pressures on demand [4]. Supply and Demand - As of January 16, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,770 CNY/ton, down 0.63% from January 9, while LME copper closed at 12,803 USD/ton, down 1.50% [4]. - The TC spot price has reached a historical low, indicating tight procurement conditions for copper concentrate [4][6]. - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 17.2% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.6% [5]. Inventory Levels - Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 690,000 tons, up 7.8% week-on-week as of January 16, 2026 [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 900,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.7% [5]. Supply Factors - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [6]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 3,391 CNY/ton, down 1,010 CNY/ton from January 9 [6]. Smelting and Processing - The TC spot price was recorded at -46.6 USD/ton, marking a historical low [7]. - In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,178,100 tons, up 6.8% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year [7]. Demand Insights - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a weekly operating rate of 55.99%, down 0.59 percentage points [8]. - Air conditioning production, representing about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to decline by 11.4% and 2.4% in the first quarter of 2026 [8]. Futures Market - As of January 16, 2026, the SHFE copper active contract open interest increased by 24% week-on-week, reaching 226,000 lots [9]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions were recorded at 53,000 lots, down 7.6% week-on-week [9].