Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a GDP growth target set between "4.5% to 5%" is likely to be realized, which has contributed to the decline in bond yields, as this figure is lower than the previous market expectation of "around 5%" [2][3] Group 1: Impact of GDP Growth Target on Bond Yields - A lower GDP growth target is perceived by some investors to correspond with lower interest rates, but this view is debatable as it conflates the growth target with potential economic growth [3] - The natural interest rate, which aligns with maximum economic output and price stability, should match the macro-level interest rates in the long term [3] - The downward adjustment of the annual GDP growth target is not necessarily beneficial for the bond market and may have a neutral to slightly negative impact [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Stability - The fundamental goal of financial macro-control is to stabilize economic operations, with economic performance being the core factor influencing monetary policy [4] - When the demand for economic growth is strong, monetary authorities typically lower policy rates and increase liquidity, which is favorable for long-term interest rates [4] - Conversely, a lower economic growth target reduces the necessity for aggressive monetary policy actions, negatively impacting bond market valuations [4] Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain in a low volatility state until the end of February, with limited space for yield fluctuations, likely stabilizing around 1.8% to 1.9% for the 10-year government bond yield [4] - A significant downward shift in the 10-year government bond yield is anticipated to occur after expectations for a reduction in the 7D OMO rate materialize, but the extent of this shift is expected to be limited [5][6] - The current yield spread between the 10-year bond yield and the 7D OMO rate is only 42 basis points, indicating that substantial compression of this spread is challenging [6]

Market Overview - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index declined by 0.39% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points but underperforming the ChiNext index by 1.50 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 sub-industries [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 2.75%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 2.1 percentage points [4] R&D Progress - Recent clinical application advancements include BNT324 from InnoCare Pharma and HCB101 from Fuhong Hanlin [5] - QX004N from Qianxin Biopharma is in Phase I clinical trials, IBI3002 from Innovent Biologics is in Phase II, and HRS-8080 from Hansoh Pharma is in Phase III [5] Company Insights - WuXi AppTec's companies reported strong performance expectations, indicating robust growth momentum in the CXO sector [6] - WuXi AppTec is projected to achieve revenue of 45.456 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.84%, with TIDES business revenue expected to grow over 90% [6] - WuXi Biologics plans to add 209 comprehensive projects in 2025, with two-thirds being bispecific antibodies and ADC drugs, and a total of 99 projects in Phase III and commercialization [6] - WuXi AppTec's subsidiary, WuXi AppTec Co., expects revenue and adjusted net profit to grow over 45% in 2025, with a global market share increase to 24% [6] - The company aims to invest over 7 billion yuan in capacity expansion from 2026 to 2029, targeting a compound annual growth rate of 30%-35% from 2025 to 2030 [6] Investment Strategy - Future investments in the pharmaceutical sector should focus on the intrinsic clinical value logic, addressing clinical needs of patients and doctors [7] - Both domestic medical insurance policies and global expansion strategies are increasingly assigning higher premiums to clinical value [7]

Group 1: Steel Industry - The price of oriented silicon steel has reached the lowest level since 2018, indicating a significant decline in metal cycle products [5] - The high furnace capacity utilization rate in January is expected to be the highest in five years for the same period [5] - The price of titanium dioxide and glass remains low in the real estate completion chain [5] Group 2: Oil and Chemical Industry - IEA has raised the 2026 global oil demand forecast, expecting an increase of 930,000 barrels per day [5] - Geopolitical tensions in Iran and Cuba have led to an increase in oil price risk premium, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices rising by 1.9% and 3.5% respectively [5] Group 3: Electric and Environmental Industry - Space photovoltaic technology has become a market hotspot, with Tesla and SpaceX planning to build a total of 200GW photovoltaic capacity in the U.S. over the next three years [6] - The current market liquidity is abundant, and the commercial aerospace sector is a key focus, with expectations for significant performance in the space photovoltaic sector [6] Group 4: Utilities Industry - The cumulative electricity market transaction volume in 2025 reached 66,394 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [7] - The national electricity load has reached new highs due to cold wave impacts, and policies to enhance green electricity consumption are expected to boost the green electricity sector [7] Group 5: High-end Manufacturing - The export share of emerging markets is expected to increase further in 2025, with North America showing the most significant decline [7] - The export growth rates for electric tools, manual tools, and lawn mowers have varied, with notable increases in specific categories [7] Group 6: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology - WuXi AppTec's companies have shown strong performance, indicating robust growth momentum in the CXO sector [8] - WuXi Biologics is expected to add 209 comprehensive projects in 2025, with revenue and adjusted net profit growth exceeding 45% for WuXi AppTec [8] Group 7: Food Industry - Li Gao Food has projected a revenue of 4.26-4.42 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.07%-15.24% [8] - The expected net profit for the parent company is between 311-331 million yuan, indicating a growth of 16.06%-23.52% [8]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 流动性：黄金价格创历史新高水平 （1）BCI中小企业融资环境指数2026年1月值为50.27，环比上月+6.62%；（2）M1和M2增速差与上证指数存 在较强的正向相关性：M1和M2增速差在2025年12月为-4.7个百分点，环比-1.60个百分点；（3）本周伦敦金现 价格为4981美元/盎司。 基建和地产链条：1月高炉产能利用率或将处于5年同期最高水平 （1）本周价格变动：螺纹-1.81%、水泥价格指数-0.87%、橡胶-0.32%、焦炭+0.00%、焦煤+1.07%、铁 矿-2.92%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水泥、沥青开工率环比+0.36pct、-4.30pct、+3.7pct。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、玻璃价格处于 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 26年收入增长动力清晰，成本压力有望缓解 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 立高食品发布2025年度业绩预告，公司预计25年实现营业总收入42.6-44.2亿元，同比增长 11.07%-15.24%，预计归母净利润3.11-3.31亿元，同比增长16.06%-23.52%，扣非净利润3.06-3.26亿元，同 比增长20.61%-28.49%。按照区间中位数，估计25Q4实现总营收11.95亿元，同比增长6.92%，归母净利润 0.73亿元，同比增长12.79%。此外我们近期跟踪公司经营情况，更新观点如下： 高基数下25Q4收入增速放缓，促销/奖励费用影响当期利润 1）短期看，公司25Q4收入端同比增速环比放缓，估计与24Q4同期基数较高、26年春节较晚存在旺季错 ...

点击注册小程序 （1）重点关注电新滞涨板块轮动： 氢氨醇："十五五"期间，基于中国未来产业、26年欧盟碳关税双重利好加持下，看好氢氨醇统筹、规模 化、超前建设，碳、氢等相关政策也可与化工板块形成轮动。 AIDC：黄仁勋近日到访中国，关注国产算力机会；看好国内AIDC建设，亦可配合AI应用形成板块轮动； 海外层面HVDC方案放量、SST技术合作进展有望兑现。 （2）景气度较高板块持续波段操作： 风电：欧洲行业景气度高，26年订单催化有望持续兑现；中国可再生能源学会风能专委会对国内风电 2026-2028年装机预测均为120GW。 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 整体观点： 1、本周的市场热点无疑是太空光伏：马斯克表示特斯拉与SpaceX计划未来三年在美国建设总计200GW光 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 一、消费品 消费品中电动工具、手动工具、草坪割草机以欧美高端消费市场为主。 总体表现：2025年，电动工具、手动工具、草坪割草机出口金额累计同比增速分别为-2%、-6%、+32%； 其中12月单月同比增速分别为-13%、-9%、+20%，环比变动-5pcts、-4pct、+7pcts。从边际变化看，12月 消费品出口同比增速有降有升，或与海外需求节奏波动有关。同时，近年来受全球关税扰动等影响，国内 企业加速在东南亚等地新增产能以满足北美等市场订单，因此国内海关统计的部分机械出口金额同比压力 有所增大。 北美市场：2025年，我国出口至北美地区的电动工具、手动工具、草坪割草机累计金额分别同 比-25%、-10%、-17%，其中 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周行情回顾： 本周SW公用事业一级板块上涨2.27%，在31个SW一级板块中排名第15；沪深300下跌0.62%，上证综指上 涨0.84%，深证成指上涨1.11%，创业板指下跌0.34%。细分子板块中，火电上涨2.71%，水电下跌0.89%， 光伏发电上涨7.21%，风力发电上涨2.82%，电能综合服务上涨4.56%，燃气上涨7.21%。 复。26年电力供需预期延续25年偏宽松态势，板块电价继续承压，但在绿电装机增长加持下，基荷电源火 电仍具备装机需求；因此我们认为火电、绿电投资回报应匹配社会的综合投资回报水平，进而满足两者可 融资性；若年度长协电价签署不及预期，依然有望提供其他措施（容量补贴提升、度电成本下行等）满足 板 ...

查看完整报告 点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 地缘局势紧张加剧，地缘政治不确定性为油价提供景气基础 本周伊朗、古巴地缘局势紧张程度加剧，原油的地缘政治风险溢价上升，油价上涨。截至2026年1月23 日，布伦特、WTI原油期货价格分别报收65.44、61.28美元/桶，较上周收盘分别上涨1.9%、3.5%。古巴 方面，特朗普政府考虑对古巴石油进口实施海上封锁，该举措是控制委内瑞拉原油出口的延续。伊朗方 面，美国宣布对与伊朗相关实体及油轮实施新一轮制裁，重点指向协助伊朗石油、能源及衍生品出口的航 运和管理网络，此次被列入制裁名单的对象包括多家航运公司及其关联船只。此外，美国已派遣军舰驶向 伊朗，加剧了该地区地缘冲突升级风险。长期来看，全球局势持续动荡，地缘政治的不确定性有望为 ...

特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 2025年末，杭州银行总资产同比增长12%，较3Q末小幅下降1.8pct；其中，贷款、非信贷类资产同比增速 分别为14.3%、10.1%，较3Q末分别变动+1.7、-4.6pct。年末贷款占总资产的比重为45.3%，较年初提升 0.9pct。杭州银行深耕浙江省内及省外重点城市区域客户，在有效信贷需求不足的行业背景下，仍实现了 贷款占比提升。2025年末，制造业、科技、绿色、普惠型小微企业等贷款增速分别为22.3%、23.4%、 22.8%、17.1%，重点领域贷款投放维持高景气度。2026年开门红对公信贷投放整体良好，较往年同期有所 多增，资产投放收益率较25Q4保持稳定。 存款保持较高增速，年末存款占比升至65%以上 截至2025年末 ...