Macro Insights - Geopolitical factors are reshaping the global interest rate curve through a "safety" premium, indicating that the rise in long-term rates is a structural change driven by fiscal expansion for national security rather than mere cyclical fluctuations [5] - High inflation coupled with fiscal expansion has significantly weakened the traditional safe-haven attributes of bonds, with the macro narrative from Trump expected to dominate asset price fluctuations ahead of the U.S. midterm elections [5] Energy Sector - The core reason for the electricity shortage in the U.S. is the sustained increase in capital expenditure for data centers, leading to a mismatch between capital expenditure expectations, actual demand, and infrastructure capabilities [5] - The report analyzes the future electricity shortage levels in the U.S. under different scenarios and provides an in-depth analysis of the electricity landscape in regions with dense data center construction, such as ERCOT and PJM [5] - The electricity shortage issue is expected to enhance the demand for reliability in the power system, benefiting sectors like gas turbines, power equipment, and energy storage [5] Materials Sector - The price of rhenium powder has increased for two consecutive months, while prices for other materials such as cobalt, lithium hydroxide, and polysilicon have decreased [6] - Uranium prices have risen, indicating a potential shift in the nuclear power materials market [6] Hong Kong Market Strategy - The Hang Seng Technology Index has formed a "deeply oversold valuation pit" with four key characteristics, suggesting a significant optimization of risk-reward ratios and presenting a golden window for medium to long-term strategic allocation [7] - The recommendation is to prioritize the allocation of Hang Seng Technology ETFs, which encompass internet leaders, AI applications, and computing power across the board, focusing on core stocks with rapid commercialization, stable cash flow, and historically low valuations [7]

点击注册小程序 核心观点： 地缘政治正通过"安全"溢价深刻重塑全球利率曲线，超长端利率的上行本质是财政扩张服务于国家安全的 结构性变化，而非简单的周期性波动。高通胀下推行的财政扩张，大幅削弱了传统意义上债券的避险属 性。在美国中期选举之前，特朗普带来的宏观叙事仍将主导资产价格波动，人民币计价资产已经显现 出"避风港"属性。 主要经济体超长端利率共振上行 全球超长端利率的同步攀升，并非简单的经济周期驱动，而是地缘政治裂变下的结构性转向。特朗普就职 后的"百日新政"引发了市场对财政赤字无序扩张与关税冲突的担忧，驱动市场为远期通胀与主权信用风险 重定价。 期限溢价为"安全"进行定价 期限溢价正经历一场范式革命：国家安全、供应链重塑与科技竞争等无限需求，取代了主权信用成为超长 债定价的新锚点。美债"武器化"事件暴露了储备资产"安全化"的浪潮，而竞争性财政扩张、再工业化与资 源囤积三大结构性因素，彻底颠覆了供需自发调节机制。 关注叙事被颠覆的可能 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 风险提示： 美联储政策超预期鹰派、AI技术迭代不及预期、全球科技竞争加剧可能导致供应链扰动、国 内经济增速水平不及预期、政策实施进度不及预期、市场情绪显著回落、科技股业绩兑现进度不及预期。 当前港股市场整体处于震荡回调通道 从近期行情来看，恒生科技指数自1月中旬的阶段性高点（6000点附近）持续回落，截至2月6日收盘，指 数报5346.2点，单周（2月6日当周 ）累计下跌6.51%，创下近期单周最大跌幅，其中2月2日单日跌幅达 3.36%，单日下跌191.87点，市场短期恐慌情绪集中释放。但从板块内部结构来看，调整呈现明显的分化 特征：半导体、互联网龙头标的跌幅居前，华虹半导体、哔哩哔哩-W、快手-W周跌幅超11%，而新能源 汽车、家用电器龙头标的相对抗跌，理想汽车-W单周上涨超8%，海尔智家、联想集团单周上涨超4%，显 示板块内资金并未全面撤离，而是向优质核心资产集中。结合港股大盘来看，上周恒生指数累计下跌 3.02%，报26559.95点，恒生中国企业指数下跌3.07%，报9031.38点，三大指数同步回调但恒生科技指数 的调整幅度更大，主要源于板块前期涨幅较高、资金获利了结 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 如何看待美国缺电成因？ PJM：数据中心需求激增推动夏季峰值负荷将从26年的156GW增长至36年的222GW，叠加有效装机容量减 少的影响，PJM电力备用裕度在25/26年度下降至18.6%，跌破20%的安全值，这导致其容量电价从24/25年 度的28.92美元/兆瓦天飙升至25/26年度的269.92美元/兆瓦天。PJM正通过政策调整来加快电源建设，同时 提高稳定电源建设优先级。截至25年6月，PJM已有46GW发电项目签署并网协议，并有11.8GW以气电为 主的项目进入快速审批通道。 ERCOT：丰富的天然气资源、更低的电价、更快的并网审批速度使其成为新规划数据中心的首要选址。截 至2025年11月8日，ERCOT已收到 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 光伏新材料：多晶硅价格下跌 （1）本周光伏级多晶硅价格6.19 美元/千克，环比 -6.5%。（2）本周EVA价格9,650元/吨，环比+0%，处 于2013年来较低位置。（3）本周3.2mm光伏玻璃镀膜价格24.0 元/平米，环比+0%。 核电新材料：铀价上涨 报告摘要 军工新材料：电解钴价格下跌 （1）本周电解钴价格42.00 万元/吨，环比 -5.2%。本周电解钴和钴粉价格比值0.73 ，环比-5.2%；电解钴 和硫酸钴价格比值为4.28 ，环比-5.2%。（2）碳纤维本周价格83.8元/千克，环比+0%。毛利-9.19元/千 克。 新能源车新材料：氢氧化锂价格下跌 （1）本周碳酸锂和氢氧化锂价格分别为13.44 、13.25 万 ...

Market Performance Overview - In the week from February 2 to February 6, 2025, gold prices increased while domestic equity market indices experienced fluctuations downward [4] - The food and beverage, beauty care, and power equipment sectors showed the highest gains, while non-ferrous metals, communication, and electronics sectors faced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - A total of 40 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a combined issuance of 30.859 billion units [5] - The breakdown of new funds includes 9 FOF funds, 16 equity funds, 7 bond funds, and 8 mixed funds [5] - Across the entire market, 33 new funds were issued, comprising 14 equity funds, 7 mixed funds, 6 FOF funds, and 6 bond funds [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - Long-term thematic fund indices showed that consumer and new energy thematic funds increased in net value, while other thematic funds performed poorly, with TMT thematic funds experiencing significant declines [6] - As of February 6, 2026, the net value changes for various thematic funds were as follows: consumer (+0.94%), new energy (+0.38%), financial real estate (-0.03%), pharmaceuticals (-0.61%), national defense and military (-1.37%), industry rotation (-2.23%), industry balance (-2.56%), cyclical (-4.60%), and TMT (-5.74%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - This week, the pace of profit-taking in equity ETFs slowed, with a total outflow of 24.3 billion yuan from small and large-cap thematic ETFs, while Hong Kong stock ETFs saw a net inflow exceeding 10 billion yuan [7] - The median return for equity ETFs was -1.75%, with a net outflow of 7.801 billion yuan [7] - Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -2.12% and a net inflow of 18.493 billion yuan, while cross-border ETFs had a median return of -2.51% with a net inflow of 3.210 billion yuan [7] - Commodity ETFs recorded a median return of -6.07% and a net outflow of 2.887 billion yuan [7] Broad-based ETF Insights - The week saw significant net inflows into the Sci-Tech Innovation Board thematic ETFs, totaling 5.507 billion yuan [8] - TMT thematic ETFs also experienced notable net inflows, amounting to 9.964 billion yuan [8] ESG Financial Product Tracking - This week, 21 new green bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 20.191 billion yuan [9] - The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a cumulative issuance scale of 5.26 trillion yuan and a total of 4,548 bonds issued as of February 6, 2026 [9] - The existing ESG funds in the domestic market total 211, with a combined scale of 156.021 billion yuan [9] - In terms of fund performance, the median net value changes for active equity, passive stock index, and bond ESG funds were -1.15%, -0.84%, and +0.05%, respectively, with low-carbon economy, clean energy, and carbon neutrality thematic funds performing well [9]

Overall Viewpoint - Focus on space photovoltaic, hydrogen ammonia, and rebound of heavyweight stocks as key investment directions [4] - Space photovoltaic remains a high-interest area, with significant developments in reusable spacecraft and predictions of AI computing power in space [4] - Hydrogen ammonia sector shows positive performance, driven by carbon policies and future industrial policies [4] - Heavyweight stocks have become more attractive after recent adjustments, potentially stabilizing the market [4] Sustainable Segment Operations - Attention on the electricity grid, with developments in North America and zero-carbon park construction [5] - Household storage initiatives in the UK and Australia may enhance efficiency and cost-effectiveness in energy deployment [5] - AIDC power opportunities are emerging in domestic computing power construction, with potential for AI applications [6] - Solid-state battery developments are being closely monitored, particularly for leading companies like BYD and CATL [7] - European offshore wind industry shows high market sentiment, with order catalysts expected to continue through 2026 [8]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 1）电力行业规划研究与监测预警中心发布2025年全国新能源并网消纳情况。2025年，全国风电风电利用 率为94.3%（2024年为95.9%），全国光伏利用率为94.8%（2024年为96.8%）；32个地区中，上海、福 建、重庆三地2025年风电利用率为100%。西藏2025年风电利用率最低，为68.6%；2025年光伏利用率最 低为64.9%。 2）中电联发布《2025-2026年度全国电力供需形势分析预测报告》：预计2026年全社会用电量同比增长 5%-6%；预计2026年太阳能发电装机规模将首次超过煤电装机规模，年底风电和太阳能发电合计装机规模 达到总发电装机的一半；预计2026年全国电力供需总体平衡。 本周观点： " ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth and expansion strategy of "Yujian Xiaomian," a leading brand in the Sichuan-Chongqing style noodle restaurant sector in China, which operates through a combination of direct sales and franchising. The company aims to become the largest in its category by 2024 and plans to go public in Hong Kong by 2025 [4]. Group 1: Company Overview - "Yujian Xiaomian" was founded in 2014 and has adopted a dual model of direct sales and franchising, positioning itself as the leading Sichuan-Chongqing noodle restaurant in China [4]. - The management team is experienced, and the company has achieved continuous revenue growth and profitability through price reductions and effective raw material cost control [4]. - Despite challenges such as high debt and rental pressures, the company is expected to optimize operations and further enhance profitability due to its mature team and scale advantages [4]. Group 2: Industry Landscape - The Chinese noodle restaurant industry is steadily expanding, with Sichuan-Chongqing style noodles gaining popularity and a clear trend towards chain operations, particularly in lower-tier markets [5]. - The industry is highly fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 2.9% market share in 2024, and "Yujian Xiaomian" ranks fourth overall and first in the Sichuan-Chongqing segment, showing the fastest growth [5]. - Following a period of industry consolidation, brands are now restarting expansion efforts, utilizing strategies such as franchise openings and price reductions to gain market share [5]. Group 3: Growth Strategies - "Yujian Xiaomian" employs a strategy of diversification, digital empowerment, and capital support to drive growth [6]. - The company targets a wide demographic with a diverse product range (30-40 SKUs) and operates 24-hour stores to cater to various customer needs [6]. - The number of stores increased from 170 in 2022 to 417 in the first half of 2025, supported by a self-developed system that enhances operational efficiency through real-time data [6]. Group 4: Market Expansion - The company is expanding into lower-tier markets, increasing its stores in these areas from 30 to 76 between 2022 and the first half of 2025, while lowering the average price of main dishes to 21 yuan to compete with local low-cost noodle shops [7]. - The franchise model is characterized by "slow expansion and strong control," with franchise stores growing from 59 to 86 during the same period, ensuring quality through a unified supply chain [7]. - Internationally, the company is testing the market in Hong Kong, where seven stores are achieving daily sales of 42,000 yuan, nearly four times that of its stores in first-tier and new first-tier cities, indicating strong market adaptability [8].

Market Overview - The A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 0.14%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.47 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 2.06 percentage points, ranking 15th among 31 sub-industries [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 1.41%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.65 percentage points [4] R&D Progress - Heng Rui Medicine submitted an NDA for HRS-9531; He Yu Bio's ABSK043 clinical application is under new undertaking [5] - Xianwei's Enogrelide is in Phase III clinical trials; Xiansheng Pharmaceutical's SIM0278 is in Phase II clinical trials; Yingxi Intelligent's ISM-4808 is in Phase I clinical trials [5] Investment Outlook - Continuous attention to AI healthcare-related investment opportunities is advised [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other ministries, issued the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry (2026-2030)", aiming to establish a collaborative development system for the entire industry chain by 2030 [6] - The plan focuses on enhancing the stable supply of key traditional Chinese medicine raw materials, improving digital and green levels, and optimizing the structure of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, which is expected to benefit the sector through policy dividends [6] Investment Strategy for 2026 - Future investments in the pharmaceutical sector should increasingly focus on the intrinsic clinical value of medicines, addressing clinical needs of patients [7] - Both domestic medical insurance policies and global expansion strategies are placing higher premiums on clinical value [7]