Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the key characteristics of the banking wealth management market in 2025, emphasizing the significant growth in wealth management scale, the shift towards "fixed income+" products, and the decline in average yields, while also noting the stability of the number of wealth management companies and their market share exceeding 90% [4][6]. Group 1: Scale - The wealth management scale increased by nearly 3.3 trillion yuan in 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of 11.2%, with the end-of-year scale expected to be between 33 trillion and 34 trillion yuan [4]. - The second half of 2025 saw a significant contribution to scale growth, with 78.4% of the annual increase occurring in this period, amounting to 2.62 trillion yuan [4]. - Factors contributing to this growth included the outflow of funds from deposits, the release of "floating profits" due to valuation adjustments, and the expansion of products with embedded rights [4]. Group 2: Product Structure - Fixed income products maintained a stable share of around 97%, with internal structural shifts observed between "fixed income+" and pure fixed income products, as well as between current management and non-current management products [5]. - The transition towards comprehensive "net value" management is evident, with low to medium-risk products remaining a cornerstone, and the ratio of open-ended to closed-end wealth management products stabilizing at approximately 8:2 [5]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - The asset allocation in wealth management saw a significant increase in deposits, with the proportion of deposit-type assets rising to 28.2%, the highest in recent years [5]. - The total asset allocation scale increased by 3.53 trillion yuan in 2025, with deposits contributing 2.38 trillion yuan, while public funds and interbank lending increased by 890 billion yuan and 400 billion yuan, respectively [5]. Group 4: Wealth Management Returns - The average yield of wealth management products in 2025 was 1.98%, a decrease of 14 and 67 basis points compared to the first half of 2025 and 2024, respectively [6]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the customer experience regarding wealth management returns may weaken, as the yield center and performance benchmarks continue to decline [6]. Group 5: Customer Behavior and Competitive Landscape - The number of investors reached 143 million, with individual investors primarily exhibiting a conservative risk preference [7]. - The market share of wealth management companies still has room for upward movement, with distribution channels becoming a significant variable affecting institutional behavior [7].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 1、二级市场 2026年1月19日-2026年1月23日（以下简称"本周"），我国已上市公募REITs二级市场价格整体呈现上行趋 势：中证REITs（收盘）和中证REITs全收益指数分别收于806.72和1047.51，本周回报率分别为2.09%和 2.17%。与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：黄金>可转债> REITs >A股>原油>纯债> 美股。 从项目属性来看，本周产权类和特许经营权类REITs的二级市场价格均有所上涨，其中，产权类REITs回报 率为3.05%，特许经营权类REITs回报率为1.63%。 从底层资产类型来看，本周新型基础设施类REITs涨幅最大。本周回报率排名前三的底层资产类型分别为 新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement despite current demand pressures [2]. Supply and Demand - As of January 23, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 101,340 CNY/ton, up 0.57% from January 16, while LME copper closed at 13,129 USD/ton, up 2.54% [2]. - The TC spot price has reached a new low, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate; cable enterprises' operating rates have increased week-on-week, but domestic social inventory continues to grow, which may suppress demand due to rising copper prices [2]. - The supply-demand outlook for 2026 remains tight, with continued optimism for rising copper prices [2]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 2.9%, while LME copper inventory rose by 16.9% [3]. - As of January 23, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 719,000 tons, up 4.1% from the previous week [3]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 960,000 tons, up 6.2% from January 16; LME copper global inventory was 172,000 tons, up 16.9% [3]. Supply - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 526 CNY/ton week-on-week [4]. - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year; global copper concentrate production in November was 1.923 million tons, down 1.9% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [4]. Smelting - The TC spot price reached -50 USD/ton, marking a historical low [5]. - In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1781 million tons, up 6.8% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year [5]. - In December 2025, electrolytic copper imports were 260,000 tons, down 4.0% month-on-month and 29.8% year-on-year; exports were 96,000 tons, down 32.7% month-on-month but up 473.4% year-on-year [5]. Demand - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with cable enterprises' operating rate at 58.71%, up 2.72 percentage points week-on-week [6]. - The air conditioning sector, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to see production changes of +11%, -11.4%, and -2.4% from January to March 2026 [6]. - Copper rod production, accounting for about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had a brass rod operating rate of 52.74%, up 2.56 percentage points month-on-month but down 3.40 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Futures - As of January 23, 2026, the SHFE copper active contract position increased by 6.4% week-on-week, with a total position of 231,000 lots [7]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 53,000 lots, down 1.6% week-on-week [7].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Beta factor and valuation factor achieved positive returns of 0.66% and 0.48% respectively, while the market capitalization factor recorded a negative return of -0.80%, indicating a small-cap market performance [5] - The quant stock selection strategy yielded significant excess returns, with the PB-ROE-50 combination achieving excess returns of 1.38%, 2.54%, and 4.23% for the CSI 500, CSI 800, and the overall market respectively [5] Group 2: REITs Market - The secondary market prices of publicly listed REITs in China showed an upward trend, with the CSI REITs closing at 806.72 and the CSI REITs total return index at 1047.51, reflecting weekly returns of 2.09% and 2.17% respectively [5] - Compared to other major asset classes, the return rates ranked as follows: Gold > Convertible Bonds > REITs > A-shares > Crude Oil > Pure Bonds > US Stocks [5] Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - The 2025 annual report from the banking industry indicated an increase in the scale of wealth management products by nearly 3.3 trillion, achieving a year-on-year increase despite a high base [6] - "Fixed income +" wealth management products have become a significant growth point, while the average yield on wealth management products has dropped below 2% [6] - The proportion of wealth management products in deposit asset allocation rose to 28.2%, with the market share of wealth management companies exceeding 90% [6] Group 4: Copper Industry Analysis - The TC spot price reached a new low, indicating continued tightness in copper concentrate procurement, while cable manufacturers' operating rates increased week-on-week [8] - Despite the rise in copper prices, domestic social inventory continues to grow, which may suppress demand [8] - The outlook for 2026 remains optimistic with a tight supply-demand balance expected to support copper prices [8] Group 5: Chemical Industry Trends - The price of spandex has seen a significant increase of 1000 yuan/ton due to pressure from losses, marking a turning point in the spandex market [8] - Spandex prices have dropped from a historical high of 83,750 yuan/ton in 2021 to 23,600 yuan/ton in early January 2026, representing a decline of 72% [8]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 点评： 营收盈利增速较1-3Q均有小幅回升，经营基本面稳中向好 2025年招行营收、归母净利润同比增速分别为0%、1.2%，营收、盈利增速较1-3Q分别提升0.5、0.7pct； 若保留两位小数，营收增速为0.01%，结束了23Q1以来累计营收增速同比负增长态势，营收增速实现转 正。营收主要构成上看，（1）净利息收入同比增长2%，增速较1-3Q提升0.3pct，公司保持适度扩表速 度，同时，以净利息收入/平均总资产作为观测净息差的代理变量，测算该代理变量2025年为1.71%，较1- 3Q年化值略降1bp，预估4Q息差保持稳定，量增价稳对利息收入形成支撑；（2）非息收入同比下降 3.4%，降幅较1-3Q收窄0.8pct，3Q资本市场景 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance of various market factors and investment strategies, indicating a mixed performance across different stock pools and sectors, with certain factors yielding positive excess returns [4][7][8][9][10]. Group 1: Market Factor Performance - The overall market showed positive returns for the Beta factor (0.66%) and valuation factor (0.48%), while the market capitalization factor yielded negative returns (-0.80%), indicating a preference for small-cap stocks [4]. - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors included the 5-day average turnover rate (4.52%) and 5-day reversal (3.17%), while the total asset growth rate (-2.05%) and quarterly ROE (-1.16%) performed poorly [5]. - The CSI 500 stock pool saw strong performance from the 5-day reversal (3.80%) and quarterly operating profit growth rate (1.98%), but struggled with momentum-adjusted small caps (-2.41%) [5]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Factor Performance - Fundamental factors showed varied performance across sectors, with net asset per share and TTM operating profit factors performing well in the defense and leisure services sectors [6]. - Valuation factors such as BP and EP also yielded positive returns in the defense and leisure services industries, while residual volatility and liquidity factors performed well in the coal sector [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Performance - The PB-ROE-50 combination achieved positive excess returns across stock pools, with the CSI 500 pool gaining 1.38% and the CSI 800 pool gaining 2.54% [7]. - Public and private fund research selection strategies both generated positive excess returns, with public strategies outperforming the CSI 800 by 0.61% and private strategies by 3.43% [8]. - The block trading combination also achieved positive excess returns relative to the CSI All Index, with a gain of 0.86% [9]. - The targeted issuance combination outperformed the CSI All Index by 1.32%, indicating strong performance in this investment strategy [10].

氨纶新增产能有限叠加落后产能退出，看好氨纶行业迎来景气拐点。据百川盈孚，2020-2025年，我国氨 纶产能从92.5万吨增长至143万吨，产能合计增幅55%，产能年均增速（CAGR）7.6%。其中2022-2024年 氨纶迎来产能快速投放期，年化产能增速均在10-11%左右，显著高于过去5年行业平均产能增速。2025年 氨纶产能同比增速4%，2026年预计仅有华峰化学4万吨新增产能，预计2026年氨纶产能同比增速仅为 3%。落后产能淘汰方面，2025年国内氨纶合计淘汰产能6.3万吨，2026年预计晓星化纤5.4万吨产能于年末 停产。需求端，2020-2025年，我国氨纶表观消费量从72万吨增长至106万吨，年均增速（CAGR）6.7%， 氨纶需求韧性相对较强。随着氨纶行业新增产能大幅下降，叠加落后产能退出，氨纶供给端压力有望显著 下降，在需求持续增长的背景下，我们认为氨纶行业景气拐点已至，持续看好氨纶行业景气修复。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客 ...

Group 1 - The current phase of the A-share bull market may have broken through the second consolidation phase and entered the third upward phase, with a potential peak forming in the range of 4200-4300 points, followed by a pullback and stabilization at the upper edge of the second consolidation phase [5] - Key points to monitor include the pressure release and capital reception in the 4200-4300 point range, as well as the effectiveness of support at the upper edge of the second consolidation phase and signals of stabilization in core sectors [5] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury yield curve in 2025 exhibited a "steepening" characteristic, with short-term yields significantly declining due to interest rate cuts, while long-term yields remained volatile at high levels due to economic outlook expectations and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [5] - For 2026, the trend of U.S. Treasury yields is expected to continue the "steepening" pattern, with clearer interest rate cut paths potentially driving further declines in short-term yields, while uncertainties regarding tariffs and expectations of U.S. fiscal sustainability may cause long-term yields to remain high and fluctuate or rise slightly [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that there is no immediate need for concern regarding the recent rise in DR001, as it is still operating near the policy interest rate level, specifically at an average of 1.35% for the second half of 2025, which is below the 1.4% 7D OMO rate [4][5] - The statement "guiding overnight rates to operate near the policy interest rate" does not equate to having the average overnight rate equal to the policy rate, indicating that the current level of DR001 is acceptable [4][5] - Recent increases in DR001, reaching 1.42% on January 22, 2026, are not alarming as this value is only at the 86th percentile since the second half of 2025 and reflects a return to normal levels rather than an extreme rise [6][7] Group 2 - The average values of DR001 from July to January show that December was relatively low at 1.29%, and the recent rise is merely a correction towards normal levels, with averages in other months around 1.37% [7] - The article emphasizes that if DR001's deviation from the policy rate is limited over a period, it indicates a "surrounding model," suggesting that short-term fluctuations should not be over-interpreted in terms of monetary policy stance [7]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 历史上全面牛市与结构性牛市的第二震荡段在回调幅度、持续时间、市场风格及活跃度上呈现显著差异。 2024年9月至今，上证指数已形成2个完整上涨段和2个震荡段，当前正处于第二个震荡段末期向第三个震 荡段初期过渡的关键节点。从历史来看，全面牛市呈现"回调幅度大、持续时间短"特征，风格上"高切 低"，市场活跃度提升；结构性牛市则呈现"回调幅度小、持续时间长"特征，风格上"强者恒强"，活跃度下 降。 牛市如何确认从震荡段突破至上涨段？ 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 A 股牛市行情形态有何规律？ A股多轮典型牛市均遵循"上涨段与震荡段交替运行、长周期下跌段占比极低"的共性规律。回顾A股市场多 轮典型牛市周期，"上涨-震荡"交替是贯穿牛市全程的核心运行节奏，震荡段承担着 ...