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【金工】市场表现为动量效应,盈利因子表现良好——量化组合跟踪周报20260131(祁嫣然/张威)
光大证券研究· 2026-02-01 23:03
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of various market factors, indicating that momentum and profitability factors yielded positive returns, while beta and liquidity factors experienced negative returns [4] - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors included the price-to-earnings ratio (1.70%), net profit margin TTM (1.03%), and operating profit margin TTM (1.02%), while the worst-performing factors were the post-opening return factor (-3.58%), momentum spring factor (-3.50%), and 5-day reversal (-2.98%) [5] - The PB-ROE-50 combination in the CSI 500 stock pool achieved a positive excess return of 0.59%, while the CSI 800 stock pool had a negative excess return of -0.50%, and the overall market stock pool had a negative excess return of -2.81% [7] Group 2 - The institutional research strategies showed negative excess returns, with the public research stock selection strategy underperforming the CSI 800 by -4.21% and the private research tracking strategy underperforming by -1.85% [8] - The block trading combination achieved a positive excess return of 0.06% relative to the CSI All Share Index [9] - The targeted issuance combination also gained a positive excess return of 0.13% relative to the CSI All Share Index [10]
【光大研究每日速递】20260202
光大证券研究· 2026-02-01 23:03
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the expectation of a spring market rally, with potential positive news from both policy and fundamental aspects in the coming months, despite a possible short-term correction before the Spring Festival [5] - The momentum effect is observed in the market, with both momentum and profitability factors yielding positive returns of 0.51%, while Beta and liquidity factors recorded negative returns of -0.81% and -0.41% respectively [5] - A slight increase in the overall A-share market is noted, with major indices showing cautious signals as ETF funds continue to experience net outflows [5][9] Group 2 - Geopolitical uncertainties are driving oil prices upward, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices reported at $69.83 and $65.74 per barrel, reflecting increases of 6.7% and 7.3% respectively [7] - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery, supported by steady macroeconomic data and recent policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions and environmental protection, which are benefiting leading enterprises in the sector [8] - A new policy document aimed at improving the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation has been released, which is expected to promote orderly and fair competition in the energy storage industry [8]
【财经月历】光大证券2月重点经济数据备忘录
光大证券研究· 2026-02-01 23:03
岁暮风动地,夜寒雪连天 。 光大研究财经月历,一览重点经济数据发布时间表。两款尺寸手 机屏保,全球财经大事尽在掌握。 瘦身版适合苹果X等全面屏 EAUA883 FRE MON- TUE二 WED三 THU四 FRI五 SAT六 SUN日 1 十四 3 4 5 8 0 十八 十六 立春 美国1月 非农就业/失业率 中国1月 第周1月 制造业PM 外汇储备 12 15 10 13 9 14 甘八 北方小年 冬七九 情人节 甘五 22 1 ୧ 19 20 21 18 17 冬八九 除夕 初三 初四 初五 雨水 美国1月零售 23 25 28 24 26 27 初八 +二 初七 初九 初十 +一 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国1月 制造业PMI | 十六 | 立春 | 十八 | 非农就业/失业率 | 中国1月 外汇储备 | 甘一 | | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | | 甘二 | 北方小年 | 中国1月 M2/社融/CPI/PPI 美国1月CPI | 甘五 ...
阅峰 | 光大研究热门研报阅读榜 20260125-20260131
光大证券研究· 2026-02-01 00:04
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Anta Sports (2020.HK) plans to acquire a 29.06% stake in PUMA for a total consideration of 1.5 billion, marking a significant milestone in its multi-brand global strategy [3][4]. Group 2 - In FY26Q2, New Oriental-S (9901.HK) achieved a net revenue of 1.191 billion USD, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.45 million USD, up 42.3% year-on-year [9][10]. - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for FY26-28 to 497 million, 585 million, and 680 million USD, reflecting increases of 13%, 14%, and 17% respectively [10]. Group 3 - As of Q4 2025, the scale of convertible bonds held by funds was 308.256 billion, a decrease of 8.362 billion from Q3 [13]. - The largest increase in convertible bonds held by funds was in the banking sector, while the non-ferrous metals sector saw the most significant reduction [13]. Group 4 - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) held its 2026 work meeting on January 26, summarizing achievements from 2025 and outlining goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing its integrated industry chain advantages [19]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Sinopec, Sinopec Oilfield Service, and others due to their strategic positioning [19]. Group 5 - In December, industrial enterprises' profits showed a significant year-on-year increase, driven by rising prices and improved profit margins, particularly in upstream non-ferrous metals and midstream equipment manufacturing [21]. - The outlook for 2026 indicates continued recovery in industrial profits, with a shift in profit distribution favoring midstream and upstream sectors [21]. Group 6 - Qingdao Bank (002948.SZ) reported a revenue of 14.6 billion for 2025, a year-on-year growth of 8%, and a net profit of 5.2 billion, up 21.7% year-on-year, marking the successful completion of its three-year strategic plan [22]. - The bank aims to enhance its regional value leadership through strategies focused on capability improvement and structural optimization [22]. Group 7 - The People's Bank of China reported that corporate loans acted as a stabilizing force in Q4 2025, with technology sectors maintaining double-digit growth, while real estate loans continued to decline [25]. - The report anticipates ongoing challenges for retail loans, with a slow recovery in demand expected [25].
【好未来(TAL.N)】收入增长稳健,控费带动利润超预期——FY26Q3业绩点评(陈彦彤/汪航宇/聂博雅)
光大证券研究· 2026-02-01 00:04
Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for FY26Q3, indicating strong performance and effective cost management strategies [4][7][8]. Group 1: Financial Performance - FY26Q3 revenue reached $770.2 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.0% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $130.6 million, up 466.1% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was $141.4 million, reflecting a 266.6% increase [4][7]. - The overall net profit margin improved to 17.0%, an increase of 13.2 percentage points year-on-year, with Non-GAAP net profit margin at 18.4%, up 12.0 percentage points [8]. Group 2: Learning Services and Other Segments - The learning services segment, including offline small classes and online offerings, saw revenue growth driven by increased enrollment and stable pricing, supported by high-quality course demand and standardized teaching [5]. - Online literacy course revenue also grew due to sustained market demand and technological innovations, such as immersive classrooms and gamified learning experiences [5]. Group 3: Content Solutions - The learning device business experienced revenue and sales growth, although the growth rate slowed due to high sales in the previous quarter and a shift from rapid expansion to steady growth [6]. - The company launched two new learning devices in January 2026, aiming to expand user coverage and enhance user engagement [6]. Group 4: Cost Management - Cost control measures led to a significant improvement in net profit margins, with the gross margin at 56.1%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The sales expense ratio decreased by 8.8 percentage points to 28.6%, attributed to reduced online marketing costs and seasonal customer acquisition expenses [7].
【固收】二级市场价格波动上涨,首批商业不动产REITs已申报——REITs周度观察(20260126-20260130)(张旭/秦方好)
光大证券研究· 2026-02-01 00:04
Market Overview - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs in China showed an upward trend from January 26 to January 30, 2026, with the China Securities REIT Index closing at 809.56 and the total return index at 1052.42, yielding returns of 0.35% and 0.47% respectively [4] - Compared to other major asset classes, the return rates ranked as follows: crude oil > REITs > pure bonds > US stocks > A-shares > gold > convertible bonds [4] - Among REITs, property and concession REITs saw price increases, with property REITs returning 0.27% and concession REITs returning 0.68% [4] - The best-performing underlying asset types were water conservancy facilities, energy, and transportation infrastructure [4] Trading Activity - The total trading volume for public REITs was 3.18 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.68% [5] - The top three REITs by trading volume were Huaxia Hefei High-tech REIT, Bosera Shekou Industrial Park REIT, and Harvest JD Warehouse Infrastructure REIT, with volumes of 0.41, 0.36, and 0.30 billion units respectively [5] - The main net inflow for the week was 149.1 million yuan, indicating a decrease in market trading enthusiasm compared to the previous week [5] - The leading net inflow categories were consumer infrastructure, park infrastructure, and energy infrastructure REITs [5] Block Trading - The total amount of block trading for the week was 366 million yuan, showing a decline from the previous week [6] - The highest single-day block trading amount was 108.06 million yuan on January 28, 2026 [6] Primary Market - No new REIT products were listed during the week, but the status of 10 existing REIT projects was updated [8]
【宏观】沃什将如何重塑政策路径与市场预期?——解构美国系列第十八篇(赵格格/周欣平)
光大证券研究· 2026-02-01 00:04
点击注册小程序 综合沃什在近期的表态,其支持进一步降息,但对美联储扩表持谨慎态度,绝非纯粹"鸽派"。简言之,沃 什虽然支持降息,但认为应该通过缩表来压制通胀,不希望美联储顺周期扩表,也即沃什倾向于通过缩减 资产负债表(QT)来控制通胀,从而为降低名义利率创造空间。在沃什的引导下,美联储后续或呈现"降 息与缩表并行"的政策组合。 查看完整报告 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 核心观点: 1月30日,特朗普正式提名凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)为新一届美联储主席。围绕这一事件,我们进行三个 方面的回答: 问题一:为什么是沃什? 问题二:沃什将如何引领美联储的政策走向? 沃什在美联储与华尔街均有长期工作经历,双重任职背景让他在其他候选人中"脱颖而出",更能获得国会 和华尔街的认可,并以与 ...
【固收】本周有所下跌——可转债周报(2026年1月26日至2026年1月30日)(张旭)
光大证券研究· 2026-02-01 00:04
以下文章来源于债券人 ,作者光大证券固收研究 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究,方能行稳致远。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户,用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便, 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 分评级来看,债项评级高评级券(评级为AAA)、中高评级券(评级为AA+)、中评级券(评级为 AA)、中低评级券(评级为AA-)和低评级券(评级为AA-及以下)本周涨跌幅分别为-0.81%、-1.48% 、-1.51%、-1.87%、-2.81%,高评级券跌幅最低。 分转债规模看,大规模转债(债券余额大于20亿元)、中大规模转债(余额在15至20亿元之间)、中规模 转债(余额在10至15亿元之间)、中小规模转债(余额在5至10亿元之间)、小规模转债(余额小于5亿 元)本周涨跌幅分别为-1.42%、-1.59%、-1.93%、-1.49% ...
【微软(MSFT.O)】生产力与企业流程稳健增长,Azure增长受可分配算力限制——2026财年二季报业绩点评(付天姿/杨朋沛)
光大证券研究· 2026-02-01 00:04
报告摘要 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户,用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便, 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 事件: 美国东部时间2026年1月28日盘后,微软发布 FY26Q2业绩公告。美国东部时间2026年1月29日盘后,微软 股价收跌9.99%。 FY26Q2生产力和企业流程部门实现收入341亿美元,同比增长16%。其中,Microsoft 365商业云收入同比 增长17%,消费者云收入同比增长29%,Dynamics 365 收入同比增长19%,显示Copilot等AI功能对企业与 个人用户ARPU形成持续拉动。LinkedIn 收入同比增长11%,在宏观环境偏谨慎背景下表现稳健。更多个 人计算部门收入143亿美元,同比下降3%。其中,Windows OEM与设备收入小幅增长1%,Xbox内容与服 务收入同比下降5%,搜索与 ...
【固收】信用债发行量整体环比上升,各行业信用利差涨跌互现——信用债周度观察(20260126-20260130)(张旭/秦方好)
光大证券研究· 2026-02-01 00:04
Group 1: Primary Market - In the week from January 26 to January 30, 2026, a total of 445 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 470.374 billion yuan, representing a week-on-week increase of 21.90% [4] - Among the issued bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 240.177 billion yuan (51.06% of total), city investment bonds accounted for 118.297 billion yuan (25.15%), and financial bonds accounted for 111.9 billion yuan (23.79%) [4] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 2.63 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.28 years, city investment bonds 3.25 years, and financial bonds 1.80 years [4] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.09%, with industrial bonds at 2.01%, city investment bonds at 2.23%, and financial bonds at 1.83% [4] Group 2: Secondary Market - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1,601.302 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.09% [8] - The top three categories by trading volume were commercial bank bonds (545.925 billion yuan, 34.09% of total), corporate bonds (455.439 billion yuan, 28.44%), and medium-term notes (338.276 billion yuan, 21.13%) [8] Group 3: Credit Spread - In the AAA-rated sector, the largest increase in credit spreads was seen in the automotive industry, which rose by 3.6 basis points, while the largest decrease was in light manufacturing, which fell by 9.7 basis points [7] - For AA+ rated sectors, the construction materials industry saw the largest increase of 2.9 basis points, while the food and beverage sector experienced a decrease of 5.7 basis points [7] - Among AA-rated sectors, the media industry had the largest increase in credit spreads at 20.8 basis points, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector saw a decrease of 5.6 basis points [7] - Regionally, the largest increase in AAA-rated credit spreads was in Guangdong (2.8 basis points), while the largest decrease was in Yunnan (7.9 basis points) [7]