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【有色】电碳价格创近16个月新高,六氟磷酸锂价格连续4个月上涨——金属新材料高频数据周报(1124-1130)(王招华/马俊等)
光大证券研究· 2025-12-02 23:06
点击注册小程序 核电新材料:铀价上涨 查看完整报告 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 军工新材料:电解钴价格上涨 (1)本周电解钴价格40.00 万元/吨,环比 +1.8%。本周电解钴和钴粉价格比值0.77 ,环比+1.1%;电解 钴和硫酸钴价格比值为4.39 ,环比+1.4%。(2)碳纤维本周价格83.8元/千克,环比+0%。毛利-9.53元/千 克。 新能源车新材料:电碳价格创近16个月新高 (1)本周电碳、工碳和电池级氢氧化锂价格分别为9.21 、8.93 和8.15 万元/吨,环比+4.3%、+4.07%和 +2.9%。电碳与工碳价差为2024年11月以来较低,或代表锂电景气度相较工业领域有所减弱。(2)本周 硫酸钴价格8.84 万元/吨,环比+0%。(3)本周磷酸铁锂、523型正 ...
【社服】中国入境游迈向高质量发展阶段,龙头OTA与旅行社有望受益——中国入境旅游产业研究专题报告(陈彦彤/聂博雅/汪航宇)
光大证券研究· 2025-12-02 23:06
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth potential of China's inbound tourism market, which has lagged behind domestic and outbound tourism in terms of growth rate and GDP contribution [4] - The inbound tourism market is primarily driven by two factors: the release of visa-free policies and the promotion of Chinese culture abroad, leading to a positive cycle of cultural and tourism integration [5] - The inbound tourism market in China has seen rapid growth since 2023, indicating the onset of a golden development period for inbound tourism [5] Group 2 - Trip.com, as a leading OTA, is benefiting from the inbound tourism boom, with a focus on the Asia-Pacific region and a strategy of gradual international growth [6] - Tongcheng Travel is expanding into international markets, with significant year-on-year growth in international flight and hotel bookings expected in 2024 [7] - Zhongxin Tourism, which started with outbound tourism, is gradually developing its inbound tourism business, having established a subsidiary for inbound services in March 2024 [8]
【金工】新股募资规模环比回落,网下询价账户持续扩容——打新市场跟踪月报20251201(祁嫣然/陈颖)
光大证券研究· 2025-12-02 23:06
点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 新股发行概况: 新股发行规模环比走弱,但单月募资仍维持百亿元水平。2025年11月,共11只新股上市,主板4只、创业 板1只、科创板1只、北交所5只,募集金额共计101.88亿元,环比-20.84%。 其中,参与网下发行的个股共计6只,主板4只、创业板1只、科创板1只,募集金额合计92.04亿元,环 比-24.33%。 2025年以来,共96只新股上市,主板32只、创业板30只、科创板11只、北交所23只,募集金额共计990.82 亿元,逼近千亿元关口。参与网下发行的个股共计67只,主板31只、创业板25只、科创板11只,募集金额 合计891.00亿元。 网下询价账户数量继续增长,新股认购需求保持高位。2025年11月,主板采 ...
【金工】市场情绪降温,基金抱团程度加强——金融工程量化月报20251201(祁嫣然/张威)
光大证券研究· 2025-12-02 23:06
Market Sentiment Tracking - As of November 28, 2025, the proportion of rising stocks in the CSI 300 has slightly decreased month-on-month, remaining above 50%, indicating a cooling market sentiment [4] - The momentum sentiment indicators show a downward trend, with the fast line below the slow line, suggesting a cautious outlook in the near term [4] - The short-term CSI 300 index is in a non-prosperous sentiment zone [4] Fund Separation Tracking - As of November 28, 2025, the degree of fund separation has slightly declined, indicating a strengthening of fund clustering [5] - The excess returns of clustered stocks and funds have seen a slight decrease over the past month [5] PB-ROE-50 Strategy Tracking - In November 2025, the PB-ROE-50 strategy yielded negative excess returns across various stock pools [6] - The excess return for the CSI 500 stock pool was -0.08%, for the CSI 800 stock pool was -1.09%, and for the overall market stock pool was -3.26% [6] Institutional Research Strategy Tracking - In November 2025, the public fund research stock selection strategy achieved positive excess returns [7] - This strategy outperformed the CSI 800 by 3.49%, while the private fund research tracking strategy underperformed by -1.36% [7] Negative List - As of November 28, 2025, several stocks with high interest-bearing debt ratios, such as Guiding Compass and Huaying Technology, ranked below 100 in traditional metrics [8] - Stocks with high financial cost burdens include Langjin Technology and Delixi Shares, with metrics exceeding 10 times [8]
【光大研究每日速递】20251203
光大证券研究· 2025-12-02 23:06
【金工】新股募资规模环比回落,网下询价账户持续扩容——打新市场跟踪月报20251201 点击注册小程序 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户,用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便, 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 2025年11月,共11只新股上市,募集金额共计101.88亿元,新股发行规模环比走弱,但单月募资仍维持百 亿元水平。网下询价账户数量继续增长,新股认购需求保持高位。主板和双创板块新股首日平均涨幅分别 为177.8%和267.7%,初步询价配售对象分别为主板9614家、双创板块8371家。5亿规模账户当月打新收益 率约为A类:0.14%,B类0.14%。 (祁嫣然/陈颖) 2025-12-01 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【金工】市场情绪降温,基金抱团程度加强——金融工程量化月报20251201 截至2025年11月28日,沪深300上涨家 ...
【光大研究每日速递】20251202
光大证券研究· 2025-12-01 23:04
Group 1: Banking Sector - The Financial Stability Board (FSB) released the 2025 Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) list, with adjustments in group rankings. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) moved from Group 2 to Group 3, while Deutsche Bank dropped from Group 2 to Group 1 [4] - ICBC's capital strength remains adequate to meet G-SIBs regulatory requirements, especially considering factors like special government bond capital supplements and TLAC non-capital bond issuances [4] Group 2: Steel Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)" on February 8, 2025, and reiterated the need to promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity on July 18, 2025. This suggests a potential recovery in steel sector profitability to historical average levels [4] - Steel stocks' price-to-book (PB) ratios are expected to recover alongside profitability improvements, although caution is advised regarding significant fluctuations in futures prices [4] Group 3: Copper Industry - The China Copper Raw Material Negotiation Group (CSPT) has mandated member companies to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026, indicating a tightening supply chain that may lead to higher copper prices [5][6] - The processing fees and pricing terms for copper concentrate have deviated significantly from market norms, prompting CSPT to enforce stricter compliance among its members [6] Group 4: Renewable Energy and Utilities - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) acknowledged the achievements in the development of energy storage and hydrogen energy, emphasizing the importance of market mechanisms for reasonable returns in the energy storage sector [7] - Recent policies aim to enhance the consumption of green electricity, with expectations for valuation recovery in the green electricity sector due to accelerated subsidy disbursements [7] Group 5: Jewelry Sector - Chow Tai Fook reported a 1.1% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the first half of FY2026, totaling HKD 38.986 billion, while net profit increased by 0.2% to HKD 2.534 billion. The company proposed an interim cash dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, reflecting a payout ratio of 85.7% [8]
【银行】G-SIBs整体排名提升,工商银行晋档3组——中资银行2025年全球系统重要性银行G-SIBs排名点评(王一峰/董文欣)
光大证券研究· 2025-12-01 23:04
Core Viewpoint - The Financial Stability Board (FSB) has released the 2025 Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) list, with five major Chinese banks included, and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has been upgraded from Group 2 to Group 3 [4][5]. Group 1: G-SIBs List and Rankings - Five major Chinese banks, including ICBC, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of Communications, are included in the 2025 G-SIBs list [5]. - ICBC's capital requirement has increased by 0.5 percentage points due to its upgrade to Group 3, raising its additional capital requirement from 1.5% to 2% [5]. - Other four major banks maintain their additional capital requirements at 1.5%, while Bank of Communications remains at 1% [5]. Group 2: Score Changes and Future Prospects - The scores of the five major banks have increased by 9 to 33 points, indicating a potential for Bank of China to be upgraded in the future [5]. - ICBC and Bank of China scored above 300 points, with ICBC's score rising by 33 points to 332 and Bank of China's by 32 points to 314, just 16 points away from the Group 3 threshold [5]. - Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank scored 272 and 259 points respectively, with stable group expectations in the short term [5]. - Bank of Communications scored 138 points, an increase of 9 points, remaining in Group 1 [5]. Group 3: Potential for Other Banks - The likelihood of China Merchants Bank entering the G-SIBs list has significantly increased, with its score rising by 19 points to 122, just 8 points shy of Group 1 [6]. - Other banks such as Industrial Bank and CITIC Bank have maintained stable scores, while Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's score has remained unchanged [6]. Group 4: Capital Adequacy and Regulatory Compliance - After the upgrade, ICBC's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio requirement increases to 9.5%, while its actual ratio stands at 13.6%, providing a buffer of 4.1 percentage points [7]. - All major banks meet the G-SIBs regulatory requirements, with safety margins ranging from 0.8 to 5.4 percentage points [7]. - The total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) requirements are also being met, with ICBC's total capital adequacy ratio at 19%, exceeding the required thresholds [7].
【电新环保】储能产业链景气度延续,氢氨醇有望统筹、规模化、超前建设——电新环保行业周报20251130(殷中枢/邓怡亮)
光大证券研究· 2025-12-01 23:04
2、投资方面:储能、氢能、锂电景气度依然较好。 (1)国内储能:放量的核心在于投资主体事权转移到地方,资本市场将持续关注招标数据、排产数据,11月 份招标预计依然较好;我们认为,2026年国内独立储能招标有望将维持2025年的较好水平,随着行业发展,独 立储能将通过电能量市场+容量市场+辅助服务市场实现完整收益模型。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 整体观点: 1、政策方面:国家发改委11月27日召开新闻发布会,在储能和氢能发展方面,肯定储能、氢能的发展成效; 后续推动储能获得合理收益,市场化是重要的调节手段;而氢氨醇有望统筹、规模化、超前建设。工信部11月 28日召开动力和储能电池行业制造业座谈会,强调依法依规治理非理性竞争。 海外储能:逻辑持续演绎,美国 ...
【公用事业】发改委发布输配电价相关办法,浙江省26年中长期交易方案维持20%浮动范围——行业周报(1130)(殷中枢/宋黎超)
光大证券研究· 2025-12-01 23:04
Market Overview - The SW public utility sector increased by 0.89% this week, ranking 23rd among 31 SW primary sectors; the CSI 300 rose by 1.64%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.56%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.54% [4] - The top five performing stocks in the public utility sector were Hengsheng Energy (+12.43%), Delong Huineng (+11.15%), Dazhong Public Utilities (+10.17%), ST Jinhong (+9.49%), and Xinjiang Torch (+8.76%); the bottom five were Lianmei Holdings (-7.57%), Shanghai Electric Power (-3.92%), Chuaneng Power (-2.29%), Xintian Green Energy (-1.79%), and New Natural Gas (-1.51%) [4] Price Updates - Domestic thermal coal prices slightly decreased this week, with Qinhuangdao Port's 5500 kcal thermal coal down by 7 CNY/ton; imported thermal coal showed mixed results, with Fangchenggang's 5500 kcal thermal coal down by 10 CNY/ton, while Guangzhou Port's remained stable [5] - In terms of electricity prices, the weighted average price in Guangdong and the clearing price in Shanxi both saw a week-on-week decline [5] Key Events - The State Grid's new energy cloud announced the bidding results for Gansu Province's second round of mechanism electricity prices, with a mechanism electricity volume of 15.2 billion kWh and a price level of 0.1954 CNY/kWh for 2026 [6] - The Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission and other authorities issued the 2026 electricity market operation plan, detailing trading scale and price mechanisms [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission released several pricing methods aimed at promoting renewable energy consumption and enhancing power supply security [7] - China Securities Index Co. announced adjustments to several indices, including the inclusion of Huadian New Energy in the CSI 300 and other indices [7]
【周大福(1929.HK)】Q2同店销售增速转正,定价首饰增长较好——2026财年半年报点评(姜浩/朱洁宇/吴子倩)
光大证券研究· 2025-12-01 23:04
点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 事件: FY2026H1收入/归母净利润同比-1.1%/+0.2%,FY2026Q2销售额增速转正 周大福发布截至2025年9月末的2026财年中期业绩。FY2026H1公司实现营业收入389.86亿港元,同比减少 1.1%,归母净利润25.34亿港元,同比增长0.2%,EPS为0.26港元,拟每股派发中期现金红利0.22港元,派息率 为85.7%。 分季度来看,FY2026Q1/Q2公司零售额分别同比-1.9%/+4.1%,中国内地分别-3.3%/+3.0%,港澳及其他市场分 别+7.8%/+11.4%。此外,公司公布2025年10月1日至11月18日主要经营数据,期间公司零售值同比增长 33.9%,其中,中国内地同比增长35.1%,港澳及其他市场同比增长26.5%。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内 ...