Core Insights - In 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, while the average transaction price per square meter increased by 3.4% [4] - The top three companies in terms of newly added land reserve value in 2025 were China Overseas Land & Investment (CNY 99.1 billion), China Resources Land (CNY 79.1 billion), and Poly Developments (CNY 78.7 billion) [5] - The core 30 cities accounted for 43% of the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities and 72% of the total transaction value [7] Summary by Sections Residential Land Transactions - In 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities was 320 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%. The average transaction price was CNY 5,605 per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [4] - For first-tier cities, the supply of residential land was 10.77 million square meters, down 31.2% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 9.66 million square meters, down 29.3% year-on-year, and an average price of CNY 35,203 per square meter, up 18.6% year-on-year [4] - In second-tier cities, the supply was 149 million square meters, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 125 million square meters, down 1.0% year-on-year, and an average price of CNY 6,420 per square meter, up 3.2% year-on-year [4] - In third-tier cities, the supply was 215 million square meters, down 24.9% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 185 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, and an average price of CNY 3,509 per square meter, down 1.6% year-on-year [4] New Land Reserves - The companies with the largest newly added land reserves in terms of value in 2025 were China Overseas Land & Investment (CNY 99.1 billion), China Resources Land (CNY 79.1 billion), and Poly Developments (CNY 78.7 billion) [5] - The companies with the largest newly added land reserves in terms of area were China Overseas Land & Investment (5.11 million square meters), Poly Developments (4.56 million square meters), and China Merchants Shekou (3.32 million square meters) [5] Core 30 Cities Performance - In December 2025, the core 30 cities saw 558 land transactions, with a total area of 39.32 million square meters, down 16.4% year-on-year, and a total transaction value of CNY 231.8 billion, down 32.5% year-on-year [6] - For the entire year of 2025, the core 30 cities had 1,970 land transactions, with a total area of 137 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, and a total transaction value of CNY 1.29 trillion, down 2.8% year-on-year [6] - The average transaction price in the core 30 cities was CNY 9,404 per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [6] - The overall premium rate for land transactions in the core 30 cities was 8.1%, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [6]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 安踏体育公告2025年第四季度及全年零售流水情况。2025年第四季度安踏品牌/fila品牌/其他品牌（迪桑 特、可隆等）流水分别同比下降低个位数/增长中个位数/增长35~40%；全年累计来看，安踏品牌/fila品牌/ 其他品牌流水分别同比增长低个位数/增长中个位数/增长45~50%，公司全年流水增长达到双位数、全年表 现符合此前指引。 点评： 25Q4零售环境较疲弱，经营指标保持健康 25Q4零售环境疲软叠加天气反复、春节时点错位等影响，与25Q3表现相比，安踏品牌增速自低个位数增 长转为轻微下滑，其他品牌增速自45%+放缓至35%+，但Fila品牌增速环比提升、自低单位数增长提速至 中单位数增长。经营指标方面，安踏/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a series of financial subsidy policies aimed at promoting consumption and investment, particularly focusing on small and micro enterprises, personal consumption loans, and service industry loans [4][5]. Group 1: Policy Overview - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with other departments, released a comprehensive set of financial subsidy policies to support small and micro enterprises, optimize personal consumption loans, and enhance service industry loans [4]. - The policies are designed to be "convenient and efficient," "precise and effective," and "standardized and efficient," with a focus on increasing subsidy amounts, broadening support areas, extending subsidy periods, and simplifying processes [5]. Group 2: Impact on Investment and Consumption - The new subsidy policies are expected to significantly enhance the scale of financial support compared to previous measures, thereby stimulating loan demand in relevant sectors and promoting effective investment and consumption [5][6]. - Specific measures include reducing financial burdens on small and micro enterprises, extending loan terms for service industry operators, and optimizing personal consumption loan subsidies to alleviate residents' interest payment pressures [6][7]. Group 3: Financial Projections - The estimated scale of the new subsidy policies is projected to be between 100 billion to 200 billion by 2026, with a significant portion allocated to small and micro enterprise loans and optimized personal consumption loans [8]. - The actual disbursement of subsidies may vary due to factors such as the scope of supported industries, the structure of client bases, and the willingness of the private sector to expand [8]. Group 4: Implications for the Banking Sector - The coordinated policies are expected to positively influence the banking sector's performance, particularly in small and micro finance and retail sectors, potentially catalyzing a favorable market environment for banks [9]. - As of January 20, A-share banks have seen a cumulative decline of 4.3%, underperforming the HS300 index by approximately 6.2 percentage points, indicating a potential opportunity for recovery in the banking sector due to these new policies [9].

Group 1: Banking Sector - The "package" loan interest subsidy policy aims to enhance support for small and micro enterprises, with an expected subsidy scale of 100 to 200 billion in 2026, significantly higher than previous scales, which may catalyze a positive market trend for banks [5] Group 2: Real Estate Sector - In 2025, the total land transaction area in 100 cities decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, while the average transaction price increased by 3.4% to 5,605 yuan per square meter; the core 30 cities saw a similar trend with a transaction area decline of 8.7% and an average price increase of 6.4% to 9,404 yuan per square meter [5] - The article indicates that with the gradual clearing of supply-side issues, leading state-owned enterprises in real estate are expected to stabilize and improve their operational performance [5] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector - The introduction of price project guidelines is expected to boost the commercialization of domestic surgical robots, which have significant growth potential and low penetration rates; the industry is transitioning from a "consumables-driven" model to a more mature "technology and consumables separation" model [6] Group 4: Company Performance - Ningbo Bank reported a revenue of 71.97 billion, an 8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 29.33 billion, up 8.1%, indicating stable growth in revenue and profit for 2025 [7] - Yahua Group's lithium hydroxide business is benefiting from rising lithium prices, with its self-owned mining operations providing dual raw material security; the company is also expanding into solid-state battery technology [8] - Anta Sports reported a stable retail performance in a weak market, with overall retail revenue growth reaching double digits for the year, driven by multiple brands and a global expansion strategy [8] - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1.584 to 1.742 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 65%, supported by land reserve income and product matrix optimization [8]

非洲自主锂矿II期已建成投产，自有矿山和包销对原料双重保障 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 Q3业绩亮眼 2025年Q3公司实现营业收入60.47亿元，同比增长2.07%；实现归母净利润3.34亿元，同比提升116.02%。业绩 向好主要系公司优质头部客户订单稳定，部分客户终端产品市场反馈良好带动公司锂盐产品第三季度销量大幅 增长，公司加强生产运营各环节管控，加强矿、产、销平衡，提高效率，降低成本，使公司经营业绩回升向 好，较去年同期有所增长。 储能需求提振预期，2026年供需格局有望向好 受益于成本端下滑、136号文出台后峰谷价差扩大、国内部分省份推出容量电价/容量补偿政策等变化，国内储 能收益率有望提升从而带动需求。根据鑫椤咨询统计，2025年全球储能锂 ...

Liquidity - The negative difference in the growth rates of M1 and M2 has expanded for three consecutive months, reaching -4.7 percentage points in December 2025 [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for December 2025 is 47.15, a month-on-month decrease of 10.19% [3] - The correlation between the M1 and M2 growth rate difference and the Shanghai Composite Index is strong, with the difference in December 2025 being -4.7 percentage points, a month-on-month decrease of 1.60% [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In early January, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises rebounded to levels seen in mid-October 2025 [3] - Price changes this week include rebar up by 1.22%, cement price index down by 0.94%, rubber down by 1.26%, coke unchanged, coking coal up by 1.23%, and iron ore down by 0.12% [3] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates changed by +0.04 percentage points, -1.92 percentage points, and +3.7 percentage points respectively [3] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide price unchanged and glass price down by 0.73% [4] - The gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1707 yuan/ton, while the flat glass operating rate is 73.89% this week [4] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at the median level for the past five years, with a current rate of 73.44%, an increase of 7.55 percentage points [5] - Major commodity price changes this week include cold-rolled steel unchanged, copper up by 1.19%, and aluminum down by 0.25% [5] - Copper spot prices have reached a historical high, while tungsten concentrate prices have continued to reach new highs since 2012 [5] Price Comparison Relationships - The gold-silver price ratio in London has reached its lowest level since 2013 [6] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 3.99 this week, with the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel at 30 yuan/ton [6] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) reached 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.03% from last week [6] Export Chain - In December, China's PMI new export orders stood at 49.00%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points month-on-month [7] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index this week is 1209.85 points, up by 1.25% [7] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced that starting January 1, 2026, export licensing management will be implemented for certain steel products, which is expected to further regulate China's steel product exports [7] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.57% this week, with the best-performing cyclical sector being industrial metals, which increased by 2.81% [8] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 28.96% and 100.00% respectively [8] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 0.50, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82, reached in August 2017 [8]

本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 核心观点： 2026年以来（截至1月16日），日元相对美元贬值0.9%，而日本股市大涨7.1%。为何出现了日本股市上 涨，但日元持续贬值的矛盾情景？ 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 2025年以来日经225上涨主要来自于三个方面的推动：（1）日本高通胀和经济温和复苏。（2）高市早苗 政府的宽财政政策预期为市场注入了信心。（3）全球AI浪潮带动相关产业链出口旺盛。 2026年，日本资产将如何演绎？ 我们认为，日股有望维持高位。关注三个方面：（1）通胀回落、居民实际收入水平上升，消费板块有望 迎来补涨。（2）全球AI仍然处在扩张阶段，半导体设备需求有望进一步释放。（3）财政政策落地，利好 人工智能、半导体、造船、航空航天、军工等板块上涨。 日元上半年或继续承压， ...

Group 1 - The total amount of bonds under custody increased slightly, reaching 178.55 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025, with a net increase of 0.30 trillion yuan compared to the previous month, but a decrease of 1.18 trillion yuan compared to November [8] - By type, the custody of interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds saw a net increase, while the amount of interbank certificates of deposit decreased [8] - The custody of interest rate bonds was 124.63 trillion yuan, accounting for 69.80% of the total, with a net increase of 0.69 trillion yuan; credit bonds reached 19.15 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.73%, with a net increase of 0.02 trillion yuan; financial bonds totaled 12.93 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.24%, with a net increase of 0.13 trillion yuan; interbank certificates of deposit stood at 19.69 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.03%, with a net decrease of 0.62 trillion yuan [8] Group 2 - The structure of bondholders showed that most institutions increased their bond holdings, except for credit cooperatives which reduced their positions; policy banks increased their holdings of interest rate bonds, interbank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds [9] - Commercial banks and securities companies increased their holdings of interest rate bonds while reducing their positions in interbank certificates of deposit and credit bonds [9] - The custody of government bonds continued to increase, with policy banks and commercial banks consistently adding to their holdings, while non-legal person products reduced their positions [9] Group 3 - The leverage ratio in the bond market increased, with the estimated balance of repurchase agreements reaching 11.91 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025, an increase of 859.04 billion yuan, resulting in a leverage ratio of 107.14%, which is an increase of 0.54 percentage points compared to the previous month [10] - The year-on-year comparison shows a decrease of 1.10 percentage points in the leverage ratio [10]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 我们认为日元贬值原因为美日利差收窄持续性不强、国际收支结构失衡、日本经济恢复存在不确定性。日本股 市的上涨，则受到了新一轮财政扩张、通胀带动企业盈利恢复、全球AI扩张周期的影响。二者的分歧，体现 了不同资产对日本经济的结构性矛盾定价的差异化。展望2026年，日股有望维持高位。日元上半年继续承压， 下半年或有反转的可能性。日债收益率曲线上半年熊陡，下半年熊平。 （赵格格/周可）2026-01-20 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【宏观】经济结构向新向优，期待一季度"开门红"——2025年12月经济数据点评 展望2026年一季度，考虑到各项稳投资政策前置发力、出口和基建领先指标表现偏强、"以旧换新"资金提前下 发，预计各项经济数据有望反 ...

事件： 2026年1月19日，国家统计局公布2025年四季度及12月经济数据： 核心观点： 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 免责声明 【1】四季度GDP同比增4.5%，预期增4.5%，前值增4.8%； 【2】12月工业增加值同比增5.2%，预期增4.9%，前值增4.8%； 【3】1-12月固定资产投资累计同比减3.8%，预期减2.4%，前值减2.6%； 【4】12月社零同比增0.9%，预期增1.5%，前值增1.3%。 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任 何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光大证券研究"、与光大证券研究所品牌名称等相关信息的订阅号均不是光大证 券研究所的官方订阅号。 ...