编者按： 金融潮涌，万象更新；资本逐浪，洞见为先。在复杂多变的市场环境中，金融逻辑的拆解、资本规律的探 寻，始终是投资者的核心需求。为帮助大众更清晰地理解金融行业肌理、更深刻地洞察资本市场脉动，证 券时报联合海证期货，在券商中国视频号、券中社 APP 特别开设《金融观海》视频栏目，以可视化呈现让 金融思考变得鲜活可感。 本期《金融观海》券商中国记者走进半夏投资，对公司创始人李蓓进行了深度专访。李蓓拥有近20年宏观投资 经验，她观点犀利、敢说真话，是自带流量的私募大V。在与记者的交流中，李蓓除了分享个人投资哲学和最 新观点，还直面回应了围绕她的争议话题，展示了自己专注投资、热爱生活的鲜明底色。 精彩观点： 风控是第一位，避免大的回撤比获取收益更重要，"黑天鹅"远比想象中常见。 投资的核心是 "活得最长"，认错是生存基础，风险控制与分散配置是穿越周期的关键。 李蓓： 我其实没有所谓的"最大收获"，从业以来每个阶段都有新的成长。创业对我而言是相对顺利的二次创 业，凭借此前的经济积累和投资经验，没有面临生存压力，也难有特别痛苦的故事。至于遗憾，我是个积极的 人，从不觉得有遗憾——踩过的坑、摔过的跤、吃过的亏，都是成长 ...

知名投顾公司，突然挨了一顿"暴跌"。 今日（1月26日），九方智投控股午后跳水，一度跌超35%，截至收盘，跌幅有所收窄，最新股价报42.08港元/股，下跌25.92%。 2024年9月至2025年8月，九方智投控股股价从最低4.82港元/股飙升至最高83.54港元/股，累计涨幅达十余倍。随后的几个月，九方智投控股股价持续阴跌，相比最高 点回撤近50%。 1月23日，九方智投控股发布公告称，公司根据2025年股份激励计划的条款向若干雇员授予合共658.3万份受限制股份单位，但须经承授人接纳后方作实。业绩方面， 随着资本市场近一年的持续火热，九方智投控股业绩快速回暖。2025年上半年，公司实现营业总收入21亿元，同比增长134%；归母净利润从2024年同期亏损1.74亿元 跃升至盈利8.65亿元。 盘中暴跌超3 5% 今日午后，港股上市公司——九方智投控股突然跳水，盘中一度跌超35%，截至收盘，该股大跌26.16%。从消息面来看，市场并无明显利空消息。公司层面也未对暴 跌予以公开回应。 九方智投控股是2C金融信息服务行业龙头。2026年1月初，九方智投控股发布公告宣布已完成对JF Financial(原名Yint ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative impact of AI on various industries, likening its significance to that of the internet and new energy, with a forecast that 2026 may mark a pivotal moment for AI development [2][7]. Group 1: AI Industry Insights - AI is expected to enter a "Darwinian moment" around 2026, following a technological explosion from 2023 to 2025, indicating a critical phase for investment opportunities [2][7]. - The AI industry is driving demand for storage and semiconductor sectors, with significant performance improvements noted in these areas [3][4]. - The storage sector is experiencing a "super cycle" driven by AI, with increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and a contraction in supply due to previous capital expenditure cuts [7][20]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy involves a differentiated approach, focusing on both storage and semiconductor equipment rather than solely on storage modules, leading to superior returns [3][5]. - The manager's decision to shift focus from domestic chip stocks to storage and semiconductor equipment was based on market structure analysis and industry trends [4][5]. - A commitment to deep research and understanding of industry fundamentals is crucial for identifying high-alpha companies and maintaining investment positions during market volatility [6][19]. Group 3: Sector Performance and Trends - The storage and semiconductor sectors have shown strong performance, with a reported annual return of 35% for a specific fund, significantly outperforming the storage industry index [3]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding the cyclical nature of industries, particularly in the context of capital expenditure cycles, to identify potential investment opportunities [12][14]. - The article notes that the domestic semiconductor industry is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of 800 billion yuan by 2027 [8]. Group 4: Broader Market Implications - AI is reshaping valuation logic across various sectors, including pharmaceuticals, media, and energy, as it becomes a fundamental variable in investment decision-making [16][19]. - The transition of AI from a conceptual tool to a practical application is expected to enhance operational efficiencies and alter profit margins across industries [17][19]. - The demand for upstream resources, such as metals and energy, is anticipated to rise due to AI's increasing reliance on computational power and infrastructure [20][21].

泰国监管突然出手。 今日（1月26日），泰国期货交易所宣布，暂停美元兑日元期货以及白银在线期货交易。在此之前，日元兑美元汇 率持续大涨，现货白银价格一度暴涨近6%，再度创出历史新高。 有分析指出，日元汇率突然飙涨的主要原因是"美日联合干预"的信号引发市场紧张。日本首相高市早苗此前发出 严厉警告，承诺政府将采取"一切必要措施"应对市场的投机性和极度异常波动。另有消息称，纽约联储上周五在 美国财政部的指示下，致电各大金融机构询问美元兑日元的汇率报价。这一举动通常被视为直接干预汇市的前 兆，甚至是美国准备协助日本支撑日元的关键信号。 突然宣布：暂停交易 1月26日，泰国期货交易所宣布，暂停美元兑日元期货以及白银在线期货交易。 有分析指出，泰国监管的这一举动主要原因是，美元兑日元期货、白银在线期货的交易价格波动过于剧烈，存在 较大的风险。 周一亚洲早盘交易时段，日元兑美元汇率一度大涨超1%，最高涨至1美元兑153.81日元，创下一个多月以来最高水 平。上周五，日元兑美元汇率大涨超1.7%。 值得注意的是，此次行动极为罕见。据纽约联储网站数据，自1996年以来，美国仅在三个不同场合干预过汇市， 最近一次是在2011年日 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the confidence of He Youjun, a member of the Hainan Provincial Political Consultative Conference, in the future development of Hainan Free Trade Port [1][2] - He Youjun emphasizes the importance of collaboration between Hainan Free Trade Port and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, indicating a strategic focus on synergy [1] - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port is seen as a significant opportunity for investment, with He Youjun encouraging entrepreneurs from the Greater Bay Area to seize this chance [2] Group 2 - He Youjun's company, Xingjing Weiwang Group, is actively involved in the development of a multi-faceted sports and leisure project in Sanya, which includes esports, traditional sports, and music [1] - The company has already begun operations in Hainan following the historic closure of the island on December 18, 2023, marking a significant milestone in its investment strategy [1] - He Youjun's participation in the Hainan Free Trade Port industry development conference in Macau reflects a proactive approach to understanding and leveraging the region's favorable policies [1]

券商中国记者梳理发现，临近新春，1月以来，多家银行推出"资产提升"活动，对于月日均金融资产较上月 提升达标的客户，银行送出多重优惠，还有银行打造了"年终奖专属理财"。 业内人士指出，银行此举旨在吸引年末的年终奖、尾款、到期存款等资金，优化资产负债结构，并提升财富管 理粘性，带动业务多元发展。 中国银行深圳分行活动页面显示，1月31日前，客户在该行日月均资产提升至20万元（含）至50万元（不 含），将获得100元到260元不等的微信立减金，月日均资产越高的客户，所获得的微信立减金也将增加。此 外，报名后，在该行资产保持不变的客户也可获得"资产保持礼"。 光大银行也发布开"薪"年终奖的专属活动，2月13日前，该行的薪资代发客户月日均资产较2025年12月提升1万 元或5千元以上的，可参与砸金蛋的活动，赢得消费立减金。 博通咨询金融业资深分析师王蓬博告诉券商中国记者，"争夺"年终奖，既能帮助银行充实存款储备，还能带动 理财、保险等中间业务增长，提升客户活跃度和留存率，降低获客成本。"银行瞄准的核心原因在于年终奖属 集中性、稳定性强的资金，契合当前银行优化负债结构、缓解息差承压的需求。同时，该时点客户资产配置意 愿较 ...

据广西云客户端1月26日消息，中央批准，蔡允革同志任广西壮族自治区党委委员、常委。 综合自：长安街知事 此前，蔡允革担任重庆市委常委、组织部部长。 蔡允革出生于1971年12月，河北霸州人，曾任中国光大集团副总经理，交通银行党委副书记、监事长等 职。 2021年，他出任重庆市副市长，2022年起担任市委常委、组织部部长。直至此番履新广西。 他还是第二十届中央候补委员。 F 责编：罗晓霞 校对：刘星莹 百万用户都在看 重大资产重组！两只A股，突发公告！ 100%关税！特朗普，突发威胁！刚刚，加拿大回应 跨界并购！牛股尾盘，封死涨停！A股又一信号闪现 日本央行，突发！刚刚，直线拉升！ 尾盘异动！A股，三大信号"闪现" 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com 券中社 × 券商中国 券 中 社 扫码下载券中社APP 扫码关注券商中国公众号 quanshangcn qzs.stcn.com 舞中 券中社APP 券 商 中 国 是 证 券 市 场 权 威 媒 体 《 证 券 时 报 》 旗 下 新 媒 体 , 券 商 中 国 对 该 平 台 所 刊 载 的 原 创 内 容 享 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the active trading environment in the A-share market, with brokers conducting extensive research on companies to identify new investment opportunities, particularly in the technology and resource sectors [2][9]. Group 1: Broker Research Activities - Brokers have conducted research on a total of 440 A-share companies this year, with the highest number in the electronics and machinery equipment sectors, each exceeding 60 companies [3]. - The power equipment and chemical sectors have seen a surge in research interest, with significant investments expected in the power sector, projected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan [3][4]. - Notable companies such as Dajin Heavy Industry and Dike Co. have attracted attention from 47 and 35 brokers respectively, while other companies like Haopeng Technology and Zhenjiang Co. have also been researched by over 10 brokers [3][4]. Group 2: Performance and Rating Adjustments - Over 1,000 A-share companies have released performance forecasts or reports for 2025, prompting brokers to adjust ratings and target prices for several stocks [6][7]. - Companies like Baiwei Storage and Jianghuai Automobile have seen their ratings upgraded due to strong performance forecasts, with Baiwei expected to achieve a net profit of 850 million to 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 427% to 520% [7]. - Other companies such as Sairisi and Lintai New Materials have also received upgrades based on their performance outlook and strategic developments [7][8]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Multiple brokerage asset management institutions express optimism about structural opportunities in the stock market, focusing on technology growth and resource sectors [9][10]. - The market is expected to transition from a valuation-driven phase to one driven by performance, with a potential for a gradual upward trend supported by improving fundamentals [9][10]. - Key investment areas include the AI industry chain, advanced manufacturing, and emerging themes like commercial aerospace and nuclear fusion, which are anticipated to have long-term growth potential [9][10].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a sudden shift in style and risk preference, with major indices turning from gains to losses, particularly the ChiNext index which fell nearly 1% [1] - The number of rising stocks decreased to less than 2000, indicating a market trend towards defense [1] Risk Preference Changes - Two significant variables affecting risk appetite emerged: escalating geopolitical risks and a sharp decline in the US dollar index, leading to a surge in gold and silver futures [1][4] - Popular stocks collectively plummeted, with satellite ETFs dropping nearly 5%, signaling a retreat from speculative trading [1] Sector Performance - A notable increase in the number of declining stocks was observed, particularly in sectors like semiconductor chips, commercial aerospace, robotics, and AI applications, with nearly 4000 stocks declining and 17 hitting the daily limit down [3] - Precious metals surged, with silver futures reaching a limit up with a 17% increase, and gold prices exceeding $5088.39 per ounce, marking a rise of over 2% [3] Capital Flow Dynamics - Recent data indicated a significant outflow of approximately 450 billion yuan from stock ETFs over the past two weeks, with broad-based ETFs seeing outflows exceeding 570 billion yuan [6] - In contrast, thematic ETFs related to TMT and cyclical resources saw inflows of around 50 billion yuan and 40 billion yuan respectively, highlighting structural differentiation in capital flows [6] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is experiencing increased volatility, with external factors weakening the narrative logic in capital markets and stock valuations appearing less attractive [6] - Analysts suggest that sectors at relatively low valuations with strong narratives may see recovery, particularly in consumer chains and real estate, as the market anticipates upcoming events [6][7] - The current market environment is characterized by a slow bull trend, with a focus on "technology + resource" as the dual mainline for investment strategies [7]

今年甫一开年，央行就出台一系列政策组合拳，并表明"年内降准降息还有一定空间。" "时机值得玩味。"在近期举办的"固本·拓新"2026债券市场年度论坛上，中国社会科学院学部委员、国家金融 与发展实验室理事长李扬接受券商中国记者专访时表示，央行此举旨在提振信心，表明其始终站在第一线。他 还提到，中国金融体系正迎来一个提高质量的重要时机。 李扬同时兼任中国资本市场学会学术委员会主任委员。他认为，中国资本市场将迎来一个小的上升阶段，并强 调改革的关键在于落实，尤其是投融资综合改革、上市公司现金分红、集体诉讼等保护中小投资者的基础制 度。 中国金融体系迎来提质关键期 券商中国记者： 央行前不久推出了一系列政策组合拳，应如何理解这背后的战略意图和影响？ 李扬： 从去年年底的中央经济工作会议，到今年年初的中央政治局会议，都强调要继续实施更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策，央行显然是在落实这一系列战略安排。不过，央行在年初就推出这些政策，时机 值得玩味。这旨在从一开始就提振市场信心，表明央行始终站在第一线。 券商中国记者： 央行也提到年内降准降息仍有空间，那可能是什么时机，以及决策层会考量哪些条件？ 李扬： 时间难说， ...