以下文章来源于兴证全球基金 ，作者与您相伴的 兴证全球基金 . 投资理财，有温度，有深度，有态度。 在剧集《爱，死亡和机器人》中有一段场景： 3个机器人重返荒无人烟的地 球，像游客一样参观人类的历史遗迹，一边吐槽着人类灭绝的陈年往事，不 禁引人深思遐想。硅基物种会取代人类吗？这需要先看看芯片作为"大脑"发 展到什么程度了。 如果将目光聚焦当今资本市场，不难看出硅基物种的地位和芯片的重要性。目前全球市值前 5位分别是：苹果、微软、英伟达、亚马逊和谷歌，都或多或 少身处于芯片竞争之中。 全球市值前五的公司，截至 2 025/5/1 （来源 M arketcap ） " 还没有指甲盖 大 的芯片， 却 决定了未来的走向 。 "经济历史学家克里斯·米勒在其著作《芯片战争》中如此判断。 芯片有多重要？ 《芯片战争》一书的副标题非常醒目： "世界最关键技术的争夺战"。 芯片，比石油更具战略性？ "人工智能时代，人们常说数据是新的石油。我们面临的真正限制不是数据的可用性，而是数据的处理能力。" 一个重要的改进思路来自 "晶体管之父"威廉·肖克利，他认为可以用"半导体"来制造晶体管，以替代真空管。 什么是 "半导体"呢？ — ...

摘要 1、今天，A股三大指数集体下跌，半导体板块大跌。大基金减持中芯国际和华虹公司，华虹公司跌超9%。 2、多只银行股股价再创历史新高，红利板块逆势走强， 行业轮动强度升至历史高位，基金投资该如何应对？ 3、 上天天基金APP搜索【777】 领98元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1347 篇白话财经- - 今天，A股重回震荡模式，三大指数集体收跌，有超4000只个股下跌。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/5/9，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额明显缩量，为1.19万亿元，盘面上，半导体板块跌幅居前，银行、电力等红利板块逆势上涨。 分析人士认为，短期扰动不改长期趋势，5月国内政策高确定下A股风险偏好有望边际回升，科技成长、国产替代、中盘价值等方向具备阶段性机会。 突然减持，半导体板块大跌 今天，科技板块的下跌对指数造成了影响。主要是受到了大基金减持的消息扰动。 1、大基金减持，两大芯片巨头股价重挫。 5月8日晚间，国内两大晶圆代工巨头中芯国际、华虹公司披露2025年一季报。数据显示，一季度，中芯国际净利大增166.5%，华虹公司则增收不增利， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market in May is expected to show a pattern of "weight index rebound and active technology growth" [2] - Economic data indicates concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on exports, but ample fiscal funds can counteract this, leading to a stable economic outlook [2] - The end of annual and quarterly report disclosures has resulted in a long-awaited upward inflection point in corporate profit growth [2] Group 2 - The market is anticipated to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, driven by both policy and performance [4] - Investors are advised to balance defensive and growth strategies, focusing on sectors with high earnings certainty and clear policy catalysts while being cautious of external risks [4] Group 3 - The June Federal Reserve meeting is expected to keep the policy interest rate unchanged, with an emphasis on increasing uncertainty [5] - The analysis framework suggests that current U.S. economic data and inflation expectations have reduced the likelihood of rate cuts, with expectations of two or fewer cuts within the year [6] - The market is likely to remain volatile in the short term, influenced by Trump's tariff policies and unclear prospects for the U.S. stock market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in China-US trade relations, the impact of the US's cancellation of the small package tax exemption, and the success of the 137th Canton Fair, highlighting China's resilience in foreign trade and ongoing initiatives to boost international consumption [1][2][3][4][6]. Group 1: China-US Trade Relations - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed a firm stance against the US's unilateral tariff measures and emphasized the need for sincere negotiations to address trade issues [1]. - The cancellation of the small package tax exemption by the US is viewed as detrimental to both Chinese and American businesses and consumers, but it will not hinder the rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce [2]. Group 2: Canton Fair Achievements - The 137th Canton Fair set new records with over 280,000 foreign buyers attending, marking a 17.3% increase compared to the previous spring fair [3][4]. - The fair showcased over 4.55 million products, including 1.02 million new products and 880,000 green low-carbon products, reflecting a shift towards innovation and sustainability in foreign trade [3]. Group 3: International Consumption Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce launched the 2025 International Consumption Season, aiming to enhance consumer experiences for both domestic and foreign visitors [6]. - During the May Day holiday, retail and catering sales increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with inbound tourism sales rising by approximately 90% [6].

Market Overview - On May 9, A-shares experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.18%, Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.56%, and ChiNext Index down by 0.63% [1] - The banking sector showed resilience, with notable gains in banks such as China Construction Bank reaching a historical high, and Qingdao Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Industrial Bank rising over 2% [10][11] Sector Performance - The banking sector performed well against the market trend, while sectors like aerospace, robotics, and semiconductor chips faced declines [2][9] - The textile and apparel sector was active, with companies like Wanshili hitting the daily limit up and Huafang Co. achieving a four-day consecutive rise [7][8] Notable Stocks - Honghua Semiconductor saw a significant drop of over 11%, while SMIC fell by more than 6%, and JD Health decreased by over 3% [3][6] - In the textile sector, several stocks experienced substantial gains, including Lishili with a rise of 20.03% and Huafang Co. with a 10.06% increase [8] Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Commerce announced a campaign to enhance the quality of textile and apparel supply, aiming to drive industry upgrades through improved product quality and brand creation [8] - Recent announcements from banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank indicated plans to establish financial asset investment companies with significant capital contributions [10][12] Market Sentiment - High-priced stocks faced significant declines, with Zhongyida hitting a daily limit down and other stocks like Jinlong Electric and Qide New Materials dropping over 9% and 7% respectively [13][14] - Zhongyida's stock price had surged by 226.55% since March 10, prompting concerns about market overheating and potential corrections due to a lack of fundamental changes [15]

值得一提的是，美元突然遭到危险警告。著名的"美元微笑理论"创立者、Eurizon SLJ Capital首席执行官 Stephen Jen在最新的报告中警告称，随着亚洲国家逐步减持其储备的美元，美元可能面临高达2.5万亿美元的 抛售。 历史最低纪录 上天天基金APP搜索【777】领98元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 离岸人民币传来最新信号。 5月8日，离岸人民币香港银行同业拆息（CNH Hibor）显示，主要期限利率全线回落。其中，离岸人民币三个 月Hibor下跌11个基点，至1.67788%，跌至纪录低点。 有分析称，上述拆息数据反映交易员在香港市场取得人民币的难易程度。CNH同业拆息利率多数下行意味着 当前离岸人民币的流动性较为充沛。 5月8日，衡量离岸人民币流动性的关键指标——离岸人民币香港银行同业拆息（CNH Hibor）显示，主要期限 利率全线回落。其中，离岸人民币三个月Hibor下跌11个基点，至1.67788%，创出历史最低纪录。根据金融媒 体汇编的可追溯至2013年的数据显示，这低于4月23日创下的前一个纪录低点1.7403%。 离岸人民币隔夜Hibor小跌至1.42848 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the proposed share swap merger between China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) and China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC), highlighting the potential benefits of eliminating competition and consolidating their operations in the shipbuilding industry [1][5]. Summary by Sections Merger Announcement - On May 8, CSIC announced its plan to merge with CSSC through a share swap, which is subject to approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1][3]. Transaction Details - The merger involves CSIC issuing A-shares to all shareholders of CSSC at a swap price of 37.84 yuan per share. The dissenting shareholders of CSIC can sell their shares at a price of 30.27 yuan per share, based on the average trading price over the previous 120 trading days [3][4]. Financial Performance - CSIC reported a revenue of 78.584 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.01%, and a net profit of 3.614 billion yuan, up 22.21% [5][6]. CSSC achieved a revenue of 55.436 billion yuan, an 18.70% increase, and a net profit of 1.311 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [6][7]. Share Structure Post-Merger - Before the merger, CSIC had approximately 4.472 billion shares, while CSSC had about 22.802 billion shares. The merger will result in CSIC issuing around 3.044 billion new shares, leading to CSIC Group holding approximately 2.007 billion shares, representing a 26.71% stake in the merged entity [4][5]. Industry Context - The shipbuilding industry in China is experiencing positive growth, with key indicators showing improvement. The merger aims to enhance the operational capabilities of the combined entity and promote high-end ship manufacturing [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the UK and the US have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, which includes reducing tariffs on UK-made cars to 10% and nearly zero tariffs on beef [1][3][5] - The agreement is seen as a significant deal for both countries, aimed at lowering non-tariff barriers for US goods and enhancing trade relations [3][4][5] - Following the announcement, US stock indices rose significantly, with the Nasdaq gaining over 1%, while the UK stock market showed mixed results, with Aston Martin's shares rising over 10% [1][5] Group 2 - The UK government has agreed to concessions on importing US food and agricultural products in exchange for reduced tariffs on UK car exports, allowing a quota of 100,000 cars with lower tariffs [3][5] - President Trump emphasized the importance of the agreement for both nations and mentioned plans to protect the steel industry, which is crucial for both economies [5] - Analysts noted that the UK is a net importer of US goods, making negotiations less challenging, and any reversal of high tariffs could benefit risk assets [6][8] Group 3 - The EU has announced plans to complain to the WTO about US tariffs and is considering countermeasures against $108 billion worth of US imports, including aircraft, alcoholic beverages, and automobiles [9][10] - The EU's proposed countermeasures are aimed at maintaining a balanced trade relationship and will be discussed with member states by June 10 [9][10] - The EU's actions are a response to the US's ongoing trade investigations, which could increase the total value of EU goods facing new tariffs to €549 billion [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq increasing by 1.07% to close at 17,928.14 points, the Dow Jones up by 0.62% at 41,368.45 points, and the S&P 500 rising by 0.58% to 5,663.94 points, driven by the positive sentiment from the US-UK trade agreement and favorable economic data [3][5]. - Bitcoin surged over 6%, surpassing the psychological threshold of $100,000 for the first time since February, following Coinbase's announcement of a nearly $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit, a major cryptocurrency options and futures trading platform [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Policies - The Bank of England announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the benchmark interest rate from 4.5% to 4.25%, marking the fourth rate cut in the current cycle, which aligns with market expectations [8]. - The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the third consecutive pause in rate changes, amidst increasing economic uncertainty [10]. Group 3: Trade Agreement Details - The US-UK trade agreement includes the partial withdrawal of specific tariffs, with details still pending. The agreement allows for a 10% additional tariff on the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to the US, while the UK will reduce or eliminate non-tariff barriers for US products like beef, ethanol, and grains [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - A-shares continue to rise under a package of favorable policies, with the ChiNext index up nearly 2%, led by the technology sector [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The total trading volume in the two markets shrank to 1.29 trillion yuan, indicating a decrease in market activity [4] - The technology sector, including aerospace, consumer electronics, computers, and communications, saw significant gains [4] Group 2: Technology Sector Recovery - The technology sector is experiencing a resurgence after a period of adjustment, with communication, consumer electronics, and computer equipment all rising [4][6] - Analysts believe that the policy pace is faster than expected, suggesting further policy space ahead [4] Group 3: Factors Supporting Technology Sector - The U.S. plans to lift restrictions on advanced AI chip exports, which could positively impact the technology sector [6] - Huawei's launch of its first HarmonyOS-powered computer marks a significant step in its ecosystem development [6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current adjustment in the technology sector has reached a point where it presents a favorable investment opportunity [7][10] - The market's concerns regarding technology sector earnings have subsided following the end of the earnings season [11] Group 5: Upcoming Catalysts - May and June are critical months for technology industry conferences, which could serve as catalysts for market movements [12] - A series of important events related to AI, robotics, and other technological innovations are scheduled, potentially driving market interest [13] Group 6: Focus Areas for Investment - Analysts recommend focusing on specific segments within the technology sector, such as upstream GPU, AI applications, and humanoid robots [14] - A balanced investment approach is suggested to mitigate risks associated with single-sector investments [14] Group 7: Trade Agreement Speculation - President Trump hinted at a significant trade agreement announcement that may ease tariff tensions, which could impact market sentiment [15][19] - Historical patterns suggest that market reactions to trade tensions have varied, with potential for structural shifts in investment focus [19][21]