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美联储重启降息背后的苦涩
日经中文网· 2025-09-18 03:45
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts reflects a challenging balance between high inflation and slowing employment, indicating a rare dual risk scenario in the current economic landscape [2][9]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to cut rates by 0.25%, with only one dissenting vote, contrary to expectations of more opposition [3][10]. - The median forecast among FOMC participants now suggests three rate cuts by the end of the year, an increase from previous expectations [10][11]. Group 2: Economic Context - The current economic situation is unusual, as typically, economic slowdowns lead to reduced employment and lower inflation rates. However, high tariffs are exerting upward pressure on prices [5][6]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.3% in August to 4.5% by the end of the year, indicating a slight deterioration in the labor market [6]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - The FOMC anticipates that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will increase by 3.0% year-over-year in the last quarter, significantly above the 2% target [6]. - Concerns remain that the pass-through of tariff costs to consumer prices will continue to escalate into the next year [6]. Group 4: Political Influences - The meeting occurred under the influence of political pressures, particularly from President Trump, who has been vocal about his expectations for more aggressive rate cuts [11][12]. - The presence of differing opinions among FOMC members highlights the ongoing debate regarding the appropriate monetary policy response [11][13]. Group 5: Economic Resilience - Despite the slowdown, recent economic indicators suggest strong consumer spending, with FOMC participants raising their growth rate forecast for the last quarter from 1.4% to 1.6% [14]. - High-income consumer spending and investments in AI-related technologies are expected to continue driving economic activity [15].
石破辞职前将在联大演讲,谈“战后80年”
日经中文网· 2025-09-18 03:45
日本将连续两年由已表明将辞职的首相出席这一世界各国首脑齐聚的外交场合。为此,日本外交的重新 布局将需要一定时间。 日本首相石破茂将出席在纽约举行的联合国大会并在一般性辩论上发表演讲。这是日本连续两年由决定 辞职的首相出席这一外交场合。为了向海外传递自己对"战后80年"的深切思考,石破一直将联合国大会 视为重要机会…… 日本首相石破茂将出席在纽约举行的联合国大会并在一般性辩论上发表演讲。他将强调今年恰逢联合国 成立80年与"战后80年",并提及联合国改革的必要性。他还将谈及乌克兰及中东局势,并呼吁不应该再 让战争重演。 联合国将于9月22日开启各国首脑陆续举行会议和发表演讲的"高级别会议周"。石破在9月16日的自民党 干部会议上表示"如果各种情况允许,打算参加"。 为了向海外传递自己对"战后80年"的深切思考,石破一直将联合国大会视为重要机会。即便在9月7日宣 布将辞职后,他仍与日本外务省官员等人私下反复筹备演讲事宜。 演讲的时长预计为20分钟左右。核心内容为联合国改革、巴勒斯坦问题、俄乌战争、核裁军等。 预计石破还将结合联合国成立80年这一节点,谈及"不战"的重要性。联合国成立于1945年,旨在维护世 界和平 ...
近25%访日中国游客是单人行,女性居多
日经中文网· 2025-09-18 03:45
日本观光厅每季度实施入境消费动向调查,其中针对观光目的访日游客的同行情况及属性等问题,按时 间序列梳理了变化趋势。回答 "一个人" 访日的中国游客比例在4~6月为23.5%,超过了1~3月的 22.0%。 2019年全年这一比例为12.2%,2024年则升至21.0%。而与"家人/亲属"、"公司同事"一同访日的比例有 所下降。与其他国家和地区相比,中国游客"一个人"访日的比例也较高。 旅游业内人士表示,"一个人"访日的中国游客"以20~40岁女性居多"。从整体中国游客来看,4~6月女 性占比超过6成。而全球访日游客中,女性占比仅为5成左右。日本在地理位置上与中国比较近、安全且 环境整洁,因此成为备受青睐的旅行目的地。 中国游客占到访日游客总数的2成(2024年,关西国际机场到达大厅) 在1~7月2495.54万人次的访日游客中,中国游客数量位居各国及地区首位,占比超过2成,达到569万 人次,同比增长47.9%,也超过了疫情前2019年同期的558万人次,自由行的比例已达到近9成…… 在访问日本的中国游客中,"一个人"访日的比例不断上升。2025年4~6月,大约每4名中国访日游客中 就有1人是"一个人"访日的 ...
FT中文网精选:“西伯利亚力量”背后的力量博弈
日经中文网· 2025-09-18 03:45
编者荐语: FT中文网 . 9月2日, 中国和俄罗斯、蒙古国进行了领导层三方会晤 。这次会晤达成的一项重要而具体 的成果,是三方就"西伯利亚力量2号"天然气管道项目(Power of Siberia 2)签署了具有约 束力的备忘录。 作为 "西伯利亚力量1号"(即"中俄东线天然气管道")的姊妹项目, "西2" 年设计输气能力 500亿立方米,经由蒙古进入中国。同时,中俄双方还签署商业协议,计划将现有 "西1" 对 华年输气规模从380亿立方米提升至440亿立方米,并把在建的'远东线'输气规模从原计划的 100亿立方米上调至120亿立方米。 英国《金融时报》集团旗下唯一的中文商业财经网站,旨在为中国商业菁英和决策者们提供每日不可或 缺的商业财经资讯、深度分析以及评论。 欧俄能源合作的终结,意味着俄罗斯必须转向亚洲,为其天然气资源寻找新的长期 市场。 文丨谭浩 日本经济新闻社与金融时报2015年11月合并为同一家媒体集团。同样于19世纪创刊的日本和英国的两家 报社形成的同盟正以"高品质、最强大的经济新闻学"为旗帜,推进共同特辑等广泛领域的协作。此次, 作为其中的一环,两家报社的中文网之间实现文章互换。 以下文章来 ...
东丽将在印度建首个服装缝制基地,向优衣库供货
日经中文网· 2025-09-17 08:00
Core Viewpoint - Toray Industries is establishing a new garment sewing base in Odisha, India, marking its first foray into garment production in the country, with plans to start operations in the second half of 2026 [2][4]. Group 1: Company Expansion - The new factory will be a joint venture with a Sri Lankan garment manufacturer, with Toray holding a 60% stake and MAS Holdings holding 40% [4]. - This facility will serve as a dedicated sewing factory for Fast Retailing's Uniqlo brand, indicating a strategic partnership aimed at long-term collaboration [4]. Group 2: Market Context - Toray already has existing fiber operations in India for automotive airbags and non-woven fabrics, but this will be its first venture into garment manufacturing [4]. - The decision to establish a local supply chain in India is driven by the need to cater to long-term customers, reflecting a shift in operational strategy [4].
日本8月对美出口额减少13.8%,对华减少0.5%
日经中文网· 2025-09-17 08:00
Core Insights - Japan's trade surplus with the United States decreased by 50.5% in August, reaching 323.9 billion yen, the lowest level since January 2023 [2] - Exports to the U.S. fell by 13.8% year-on-year, marking five consecutive months of decline [2] - The decline in automobile exports to the U.S. is attributed to the ongoing impact of U.S. tariff policies [2] Group 1: Trade Statistics - In August, Japan's automobile exports to the U.S. decreased by 28.4%, amounting to 307.6 billion yen, with export volume dropping by 9.5% to 86,480 vehicles [4] - The average price of exported vehicles fell by 20.9% to 3.55 million yen, remaining below the previous year's level for six consecutive months [4] - Japan's overall trade balance showed a deficit of 242.5 billion yen in August, marking two consecutive months of deficit [4] Group 2: Export Trends - Japan's total exports in August decreased by 0.1% to 8.4251 trillion yen, with exports to China declining by 0.5% to 1.5007 trillion yen, continuing a six-month downward trend [4] - Exports to the European Union increased by 5.5% to 780.4 billion yen, marking the first increase in two months [4] - The increase in exports to the EU was driven by higher demand for engineering and mining machinery, as well as hybrid vehicles [4]
中国“一带一路”投资再度扩大
日经中文网· 2025-09-17 08:00
中国对"一带一路"参与国的投资2017~2019年每年超过1100亿美元,但2020~2022年却徘徊在600亿~ 700亿美元之间。有数据显示2025年1~6月投资额已超过1240亿美元,尤其是对非洲的投资有所增 加…… 中国对"一带一路"的相关投资再度扩大。也有分析称尽管投资额在新冠疫情流行后有所减少,但2025年 与历年数据相比创下历史新高。中国在矿产资源丰富的非洲地区的投资攻势尤为显著。希望抓住美国特 朗普政府对发展中国家援助消极的契机,扩大自身影响力。 据澳大利亚格里菲斯大学和中国复旦大学的研究机构调查,1~6月包括建设合同在内的投资额已超过 1240亿美元。与过去的全年数据相比,这是2013年提出"一带一路"倡议以来的最高值。 尤其是对非洲的投资有所增加。投资额达到400亿美元,比2024年全年增长了37%,占投资总额的3成以 上。自2021年以来,中国对非投资在各地区中再次位居首位。该调查结果显示,中国化工大型企业中国 化学工程集团在尼日利亚签订的价值200亿美元的天然气设施建设合同拉动了对非投资。 中国企业在肯尼亚首都内罗毕推进的高速公路建设工地(2021年,Reuters) 此外,中国政府旗 ...
“便宜”的东京房地产在吸引海外投资
日经中文网· 2025-09-17 02:40
Core Viewpoint - Overseas investment in Japanese real estate reached a historical high in the first half of 2025, driven by rising land prices in major cities like Tokyo and Osaka, and supported by favorable economic conditions such as yen depreciation and low interest rates [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Trends - In the first half of 2025, overseas investors invested 1.14 trillion yen in Japanese real estate, marking the highest amount since 2005 [4]. - The yield gap, which measures investment return rates minus long-term interest rates, indicates that Japan offers higher attractiveness compared to other countries, with Tokyo's central office yield gap at 1.85%, surpassing New York (1.75%), Singapore (1.03%), and London (0.86%) [4][7]. Group 2: Rental Market Dynamics - Office rents in Tokyo are currently about 80% of those in New York, and rental prices have decreased by approximately 30% compared to pre-Lehman crisis peaks, while rents in London have increased by about 40% [7]. - The vacancy rate for Tokyo office buildings is expected to remain low until around 2027, with continuous rent increases anticipated [7]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The influx of foreign capital is supported by the economic environment, including yen depreciation and lower interest rates compared to other countries [7]. - The Bank of Japan has been gradually increasing interest rates, which is seen as acceptable for investors, as Japan's interest rates remain lower than those abroad [7].
美政府将TikTok美国业务出售期限延长至12月
日经中文网· 2025-09-17 02:40
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has extended the deadline for the sale of TikTok's U.S. operations to December 16, 2023, due to a framework agreement reached between the U.S. and China regarding the sale process [2][4]. Group 1: Sale Timeline and Regulatory Context - The sale of TikTok's U.S. operations was initially ordered by President Trump in 2020, but the Biden administration revoked this order in 2021. In April 2024, new regulations were introduced, leading to TikTok's lawsuit against the U.S. government [5]. - The current regulatory framework allows for a maximum extension of 90 days for the sale deadline, but Trump has extended it four times, which raises questions about adherence to legal stipulations [6]. Group 2: Framework Agreement and Future Steps - A framework agreement was reached on September 15, 2023, during ministerial consultations in Madrid, allowing for the necessary approval processes in China to proceed for the sale [4]. - The potential buyers of TikTok's U.S. operations include Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz, forming a consortium to acquire the business [4]. Group 3: Technical and Operational Considerations - It remains unclear whether the algorithms and core technologies managed in China will be transferred to the U.S. buyers as part of the sale [4]. - A new app is being developed for U.S. users, which will utilize a re-engineered algorithm based on TikTok's existing technology [4].
日经Gaming精选:万代南梦宫在涩谷的官方店铺开业,收益以外的目标是?
日经中文网· 2025-09-17 02:40
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the opening of the "Bandai Namco Cross Store" located in the "MAGNET by SHIBUYA109" commercial facility, emphasizing its experiential retail concept that allows customers to "watch," "touch," and "experience" various products and services from the Bandai Namco Group [5][6]. Group 1 - The "Bandai Namco Cross Store" opened on August 1, 2025, in a prime location near the Shibuya crossing, which is a strategic choice for attracting foot traffic [3][4]. - The store features ten official stores from the Bandai Namco Group, with a focus on an "experience-based" shopping environment [5]. - The store aims to provide interactive experiences related to characters, products, events, and services offered by the Bandai Namco Group, enhancing customer engagement [5][6].