5月31日，摩根大通发布研究报告指出，本周围绕美国关税的不确定性进一步加剧，美国法院根据《国 际紧急经济权力法案》（IEEPA）裁定特朗普政府的关税措施违宪。尽管表面上看，这预示着美国对中 国（及其他亚洲经济体）下调关税的可能性上升，但白宫仍拥有大量替代权力（如第 122、301、338 条款）以实施关税。因此，摩根大通认为关税争端不太可能就此结束，目前仍不能完全排除美国关税维 持现有水平甚至进一步上调的风险（摩根大通仍预期美国关税将上升）。 外汇市场借此机会进一步平仓美元多头，美元指数本周从局部低点反弹。美元 / 离岸人民币汇率随之温 和走高，但与地区 peers 相比总体保持稳定，使得中国外汇交易中心（CFETS）人民币贸易加权指数 （TWI）跟随美元指数小幅走强（图 1）。人民币汇率的相对稳定也得益于区间波动的中间价设定 —— 中国央行将每日参考汇率维持在 7.18-7.19 的窄幅区间内，而摩根大通的模型预测显示合理区间应为 7.17-7.21。中国央行通过有管理的中间价设定，允许人民币汇率大致跟踪美元走势，但波动性比其他 货币更收敛（图 2）。 图 1：美元 / 离岸人民币跟随美元走高，但人民币本周 ...

Macro and Policy Level - The US ISM Manufacturing Index for May is expected to rise from 48.7 to 49.2, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold [1] - The second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is scheduled to take place in Istanbul, which may impact global geopolitical dynamics, particularly in energy and commodity markets [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI for May increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.3, indicating continued expansion overall [2] - The US trade deficit for April is projected to narrow from $140.5 billion to $117.3 billion, reflecting a potential easing of the "export rush" effect [3] - The European Central Bank is expected to continue lowering interest rates in June, with market focus on future rate guidance amid economic growth concerns in the Eurozone [4] Financial Data - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for May are set to be released [5] - The US will release various economic indicators, including the May non-farm payroll report, with expectations of a decrease in job additions from 177,000 to 130,000 [7] Industry Level - CATL is set to launch monthly options for its H-shares, with the first contracts available on June 2, 2025 [6] - Nintendo will globally launch the Switch 2, featuring significant upgrades in hardware performance and gaming experience compared to its predecessor [8] Company Level - Xiaomi Group held its 2025 Investor Day, where management shared strategic directions and business developments, including a visit to its automotive factory [9] - Broadcom reported Q2 fiscal year 2025 earnings, projecting revenue of $14.9 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, and AI semiconductor revenue of $4.4 billion, indicating strong growth potential [10]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report highlights China's rapid advancements in the memory sector, particularly in DRAM and HBM technologies, aiming to produce HBM3/3E by 2027 [1][3] - The report indicates that China is narrowing the technology gap in HBM, currently lagging 3-4 years behind global leaders, and emphasizes the importance of enhancing domestic AI chip production capabilities [1][2] Group 1: HBM Technology Development - China is making significant strides in HBM technology, with Longsys Storage (CXMT) expected to start small-scale production of HBM2 by mid-2025 and plans to develop HBM3 by 2026 [13][16] - The gap in DRAM technology has decreased from 5 years to 3 years, with CXMT entering 1z nm process production for DDR5 [1][3] - The report suggests that the advancements in HBM production may lead to increased competition and price fluctuations in the global DRAM market [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The U.S. export restrictions are pushing China to accelerate its technological advancements, with the potential for a significant increase in the GDDR7 market, projected to grow by $400 million [2][3] - The report notes that China currently holds about 20% of global front-end semiconductor manufacturing capacity and 40% of back-end capacity, with expectations that by 2027, around 37% of global wafer manufacturing capacity will be concentrated in China [4] - The rise of Chinese suppliers is reshaping the competitive landscape, posing challenges to established players like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron [4][3] Group 3: Key Players and Innovations - Key Chinese companies in the semiconductor ecosystem include CXMT for DRAM, Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) for NAND flash, and various players in EDA and foundry services [5] - Innovations in hybrid bonding technology are highlighted as a competitive advantage for Chinese firms, with significant patent holdings compared to competitors [22][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of advanced packaging technologies, such as hybrid bonding, for future HBM products, which could enhance performance and yield [26][22]

Group 1 - Kingsoft Software (03888) saw a nearly 5% drop in stock price, with Q1 revenue increasing by 9% year-on-year to 2.338 billion yuan, but net profit attributable to the parent company slightly decreased by 0.24% to 284 million yuan. Office software and services revenue grew by 6% year-on-year but fell by 13% quarter-on-quarter, while online gaming and other revenue increased by 14% year-on-year but decreased by 20% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Li Auto-W (02015) rose over 7%, reporting a 1.1% year-on-year revenue increase and a 9.4% rise in net profit for Q1. The company expects Q2 delivery volume to increase by 13.3%-17.9% year-on-year, with revenue projected to grow by 2.5%-6.7%. CEO Li Xiang expressed confidence in restoring monthly sales to 50,000 units and plans to launch the pure electric SUV i8 in July [1] - Hand Return Group (02621) debuted on the market but fell over 7% on its first day. The company is an internet-based life insurance intermediary with platforms like Xiaoyusan, Kachaba, and Niubao100, raising approximately 134 million HKD from its listing [1] - Yiming Anke-B (01541) surged over 13%, with its stock price doubling within the month. The company announced preliminary efficacy and safety data for its core product IMM2510 in treating non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) during I/II phase clinical trials [1] Group 2 - Meizhong Jiahe (02453) increased by over 7%, having developed a proprietary proton therapy language model successfully deployed in a Guangzhou hospital. The company plans to raise approximately 93.94 million HKD through a discounted share placement for equipment procurement, loan repayment, and working capital [2] - Gome Retail (06808) rose over 6%, with reports indicating that after a major shareholder change, the company is on track to transform its business, focusing on sales scale and absolute gross profit by FY2026. The company turned profitable in the second half of the last fiscal year, reporting a net profit of 199 million yuan, and plans to distribute 1.5 billion yuan in dividends for FY2025 [2] - Sany International (00631) saw a rise of over 4%, reporting a 14.6% year-on-year revenue increase to 5.876 billion yuan and a 23.2% rise in net profit to 635 million yuan for Q1. Growth was attributed to global expansion, digitalization, and low-carbon strategies [2] Group 3 - Dekang Agriculture (02419) surged over 8%, with analysts noting that April pig prices remained strong despite the seasonal downturn, and May's supply-demand dynamics are expected to support rising pig prices. The company is recognized for its leading breeding costs, projected to be below 13 yuan per kilogram, with an estimated 30% growth in pig output over the next three years [3] - Fubo Group (03738) increased by over 13%, completing an oversubscribed financing of over 500 million HKD for AI research and financial optimization. The company reported a total revenue increase of approximately 23% year-on-year, with mainland China revenue growing by about 21% and monthly recurring revenue (MRR) increasing by around 30% [3] - Gako Si-B (01167) rose over 8%, with a cumulative increase of over 25% this week. The company received domestic approval for its KRAS G12C inhibitor, used in specific non-small cell lung cancer treatments [3] - Fosun Pharma (02196) increased by over 6%, announcing that its self-developed new drug, Luwo Meitini tablets, has been approved for market release by the National Medical Products Administration [3] Group 4 - The smartphone supply chain stocks collectively fell, with companies like Hillstone Technology dropping over 5% and Sunny Optical, BYD Electronics, and GoerTek all declining over 3%. This decline was attributed to market concerns following the reinstatement of tariffs from the Trump administration [4] - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical (02096) rose over 8%, with five of its drugs selected for the 2025 ASCO annual meeting. The company's innovative drug BD's international expansion has garnered attention, including a deal with AbbVie worth over 1 billion USD [4] - Yika (09923) surged over 10%, following a 27% increase the previous day. The company recently obtained a payment license in Arizona, USA, with a projected nearly 5-fold increase in overseas transaction volume in 2024 [4] - Stone Pharmaceutical Group (01093) rose over 7%, with ongoing negotiations for three potential transactions involving products like EGFR-ADC, with total potential payments reaching approximately 5 billion USD, one of which is expected to be completed in June [4]

点击蓝字，关注我们 戴尔业绩展望超预期，高达121亿美元AI订单与股票回购计划共推盈利扩张。截至5月2日的季度 人工智能订单价值约为121亿美元，超过了2025财年的整体出货量价值。 聚焦于PC与高性能服务器产品组装与制造的美国科技公司戴尔(DELL.US)周四美股盘后发布的业绩报 告显示，其 全财年的利润展望超出华尔街分析师普遍预期， 并称用于运行人工智能训练/推理体系的 AI服务器订单显著增加 。 戴尔截至5月2日的季度的AI服务器订单价值甚至超越整个2025财年AI服务 器出货量带来的整体价值 ，戴尔预计其计算机、服务器和存储业务的盈利能力将持续大举扩张，并 加快了股票回购，共同推进每股利润增长。 戴尔周四在业绩声明中指出，预计截至2026年1月结束的下一财年，不包括某些项目的每股收益将约 为9.40美元，高于今年2月给出的业绩预测。该公司重申其大约1030亿美元的全年销售额预期中值(戴 尔给出的销售额区间为1010亿美元至1050亿美元)。根据机构汇编的分析师平均预期，华尔街分析师 们平均预期在1030亿美元销售额基础上，每股收益约为9.21美元，意味着戴尔给出的财年利润预期显 著超越华尔街预期。 在 ...

Market Performance Overview - Hong Kong stocks showed varied performance from May 1 to present, with notable gainers including Xinda Biopharmaceutical (15.53%) and XPeng Motors (10.36%), while Weilan Delicious saw a decline of 15.42% [1] - A-share market also had mixed results, with Bai Run Co. increasing by 9.27% and Yanqing Beer by 8.70%, while Yanjin Beer fell by 2.78% [1] - In the US market, Vistra led with a 23.22% increase, while UnitedHealth Group experienced a significant drop of 27.53% [1] Macroeconomic Context - The 20-year US Treasury auction results were weaker than expected, indicating soft demand for government debt, which led to declines across US stocks, bonds, and currencies [2] Trade Relations and Tariffs - US-China trade talks on May 12 resulted in a temporary suspension of some tariffs, alleviating market concerns and boosting investor confidence [3] - Japan is pursuing a $44 billion LNG project and technology sharing to reach a tariff agreement with the US, while ongoing negotiations with the EU remain unresolved, posing potential risks for US stocks, particularly in tech and industrial sectors [3] Export Trends - China's exports to the US fell by 21% in April, but a recovery in demand is anticipated as US retailers increase orders ahead of major holidays [4] - Shanghai port saw a 49.4% week-on-week increase in export container volume, indicating strong demand and a backlog of orders extending into June [7] Tourism Sector Insights - The upcoming travel season is expected to see a surge in bookings, with a 63% year-on-year increase in orders for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday [9] - Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel are highlighted as key players, with Ctrip focusing on high-end markets and Tongcheng targeting lower-tier consumers [9][10] Consumer Trends - The Z generation's consumption potential is rising, with a focus on value-for-money and personalized products [10] - Companies like Wancheng Group are recommended for investment due to their strong market position and growth potential in the snack industry [10] AI and Technology Sector - The demand for AI infrastructure remains robust, with companies like NVIDIA and AMD positioned as key players in the market [15][16] - Upcoming tech events in June are expected to drive further interest and investment in the sector [17] Stock Adjustments and Earnings - The Hang Seng Index is set for adjustments in June, with potential new additions to the Hong Kong Stock Connect [20] - Companies like NIO and various US firms are expected to report earnings in June, which could influence market sentiment [21][22] Defensive Investment Strategies - Given the current macroeconomic uncertainties, investments in gold, banks, and utility sectors are recommended as defensive strategies [25]

点击蓝字，关注我们 5月14日，腾讯控股(00700)将公布2025年一季度业绩。赛富时公布了超预期的第一财季业 绩，同时上调了2026财年营收指引。 得益于云计算支出的强劲增长以及其人工智能(AI)代理平台商业化进程的加速，全球领先的客户关系 管理软件提供商 赛富时(CRM.US)公布了超预期的第一财季业绩，同时上调了2026财年营收指引。 财报显示，该公司第一财季营收同比增长8%至98亿美元，未履约订单金额达609亿美元，调整后每 股收益2.58美元，各项指标均超市场预期。 根据最新预测，在截至2026年1月的财年中，该公司营收预计将达到410亿至413亿美元，此前预期为 405亿至409亿美元。 尽管过去几个月全球宏观经济存在不确定性，但大型企业仍持续加大云计算投入，通过AI技术升级 数字基础设施。这一趋势为赛富时带来了持续的业务增长。 云计算支出的增加为赛富时的人工智能代理平台Agentforce的商业化进程提供了有力支撑。该公司正 全力押注智能代理技术，以推动其软件产品的市场渗透。 数据显示，赛富时的AI代理平台"Agentforce"产品已获得市场初步认可，目前累计完成超4000笔付费 交易，但投 ...

Market Performance in Hong Kong - ZhongAn Online (06060) surged over 8%, with a cumulative increase of over 50% this month, benefiting from stablecoin legislation that positively impacts its virtual asset business [1] - Education stocks collectively rose, with China Education Group (0839) up over 5% and New Oriental (9901) up over 2% [1] - Kingsoft (03888) fell over 6% as Q1 revenue missed expectations [1] - Export stocks strengthened, with Shenzhou International (02313) rising nearly 5% amid a U.S. federal court blocking Trump's tariff policy [1] - Gold stocks collectively declined as international gold prices fell to $3,250 [1] - Apple-related stocks rose collectively, with AAC Technologies (02018), Q Technology (01478), and Sunny Optical (02382) each up over 2% [1] - Junshi Biosciences (01877) increased over 6% after receiving approval for two new indications, accelerating clinical progress of its pipeline [1] - XPeng Motors-W (09868) rose over 6% as the new MONA M03 version saw over 12,000 pre-orders within an hour [1] - Pop Mart (09992) increased over 4% as Labubu 3.0 sparked a global phenomenon, with its brand POPOP set to open its first official store [1] - CRO concept stocks strengthened, with WuXi Biologics rising over 8% and WuXi AppTec and Zai Lab each up over 4% following the U.S. International Trade Court's decision to halt Trump's tariffs [1] - Hongteng Precision (06088) rose over 6% as NVIDIA's data center revenue surged over 70%, resolving previous overheating issues [1] - Tongcheng Travel (00780) increased over 4% with accelerated net profit growth in Q1, as institutions remain optimistic about OTA platform performance [1] - WuXi AppTec-B (02126) surged over 20% after the acceptance of a new indication application for Regorafenib [1] Market Performance in U.S. - NVIDIA (NVDA.US) rose nearly 6% after reporting strong Q1 results and projecting shipments of Blackwell Ultra for Q2 of fiscal 2026 [2] - AI software provider C3.ai (AI.US) soared over 12% with Q4 revenue growth of 26% year-over-year, reaching $109 million [2] - Software giant Salesforce (CRM.US) rose nearly 6% after reporting Q1 revenue of $9.8 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, and raising its full-year revenue guidance [2] - HP Inc. (HPQ.US) fell nearly 15% after lowering its full-year earnings forecast due to increased costs from tariffs, reporting Q2 net revenue of $13.22 billion [2] - Spero Therapeutics (SPRO.US) surged 245% after successful Phase 3 trial results for a urinary tract infection drug [2] - JZXN (JZXN.US) jumped nearly 25% as the company plans to acquire 1,000 bitcoins within the next year [2] - Joby Aviation (JOBY.US) soared over 28% after receiving a $250 million investment from Toyota, which had previously committed a total of $500 million [2] Additional U.S. Market Highlights - Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF.US) rose nearly 15% as its fiscal outlook indicated that tariffs would not impact sales [3] - ZTO Express (ZTO.US) rose over 4.5% with a Q1 net profit growth of 40.9% [5] - Manbang Group (YMM.US) initially rose over 4%, closing up 1.7%, with Q1 operating profit increasing 1.7 times [5] - Tempus AI (TEM.US) fell nearly 20% after a short-seller report questioned its AI capabilities [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang predicts a significant revenue surge driven by the Blackwell series AI chips, which are expected to set sales records and transform the AI computing infrastructure market into an exponential growth sector [3][9][14]. Group 1: Nvidia's Performance and Market Outlook - Nvidia anticipates total revenue of approximately $45 billion for the second quarter, despite an estimated loss of $8 billion in revenue from the Chinese market due to U.S. export restrictions [6][9]. - The company's data center business, primarily driven by the Blackwell architecture AI GPUs, is expected to be the main contributor to revenue growth, with sales reaching $39.1 billion [8][14]. - Nvidia's overall revenue for the first quarter increased by 69% year-over-year to $44.1 billion, surpassing analyst expectations [8][12]. Group 2: AI Chip Market Dynamics - The AI chip market is dominated by Nvidia, which holds an 80%-90% market share, and is projected to achieve nearly $200 billion in revenue for the current fiscal year, up from $27 billion two years ago [14][19]. - Analysts from major firms like Morgan Stanley and BlackRock emphasize the resilience of AI-driven stocks, suggesting that despite trade policy uncertainties, the long-term growth potential of AI investments remains intact [4][16]. Group 3: Trade Policy and Competitive Landscape - The U.S. government's new export restrictions on AI chips to China have raised concerns about Nvidia's long-term growth, but Huang's optimistic outlook has alleviated some market fears [9][10]. - Competitors like TSMC have reported strong demand for AI chips, maintaining growth forecasts despite the impact of U.S. tariffs, indicating a robust market for AI-related technologies [17][18]. Group 4: Future Developments and Innovations - Nvidia is exploring the development of new products for the Chinese market, although specific plans are not yet in place [10]. - The company is set to launch its flagship Blackwell Ultra architecture AI GPU, which is expected to enhance revenue and profit margins in the coming months [15].

Group 1 - Xiaomi Group reported a 47.4% year-on-year revenue increase to 111.3 billion yuan in Q1, with adjusted net profit rising 64.5% to 10.7 billion yuan, both hitting record highs [1] - Tencent Music's Q1 online music revenue grew 15.9% year-on-year to 5.8 billion yuan, with paid users reaching 122.9 million and ARPPU increasing to 11.4 yuan [1] - Zhejiang Shibao's stock rose over 9% as the company secured multiple projects in the steer-by-wire sector, with expected production in 2026, benefiting from the growing demand for L3+ autonomous driving [1] Group 2 - Miniso's Q1 revenue increased by 18.9% to 4.43 billion yuan, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell 28.5% to 420 million yuan, marking the first quarterly profit decline in three years [2] - Nuclear power stocks surged, with China National Nuclear Corporation rising 11.84% and China General Nuclear Power Corporation up 8.57%, driven by U.S. plans to build 10 large nuclear power plants by 2030 [2] - Jitu Express saw its stock rise over 3%, with a logistics network covering over 17,000 islands in Southeast Asia and a market share of 39% in the region [2] Group 3 - Alibaba Pictures' stock increased over 8% as the company plans to rebrand as "Damai Entertainment Holdings Limited," with its ticketing and investment business seen as a stabilizer for performance [3] - Junshi Biosciences' stock rose over 4% after its PCSK9-targeted drug received approval for two new indications, filling a clinical demand gap [3] - Kuaishou's Q1 revenue grew 10.9% year-on-year to 32.608 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit increasing by 4.4% to 4.58 billion yuan [3] Group 4 - SF Express's stock rose over 6%, with a significant increase in delivery volumes during the May Day holiday, particularly in supermarkets and last-mile deliveries [4] - Honghua Group's stock opened up over 14% after securing a 1.5 billion yuan order for smart drilling rigs, indicating international market recognition [4] - H&H International's stock rose over 4%, driven by increased online sales of its anti-aging products amid a growing aging population [4] Group 5 - Yiming Anke's stock rose over 5% as it announced a Phase II trial for a lung cancer treatment, with initial data expected later this year [5] - Meizhong Jiahe's stock increased over 6% after announcing significant progress in cancer precision diagnosis technology [5] - Guofu Hydrogen Energy's stock rose over 4% as the company plans to redirect 78.1 million HKD in fundraising towards hydrogen energy projects [5]