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财报 vs 市场预期:微软是 AI 赢家、还是估值透支的未来赌注?
贝塔投资智库· 2026-02-08 12:06
- 净利润 384.58 亿美元 ,同比大增 60%(但 GAAP 利润受 OpenAI 投资亏损拖累, 调整后净利润 309 亿元 ,增⻓ 23%) - 成本端,服务与其他成本同比上升 25.2%至 224.73 亿美元,主要源于数据中心扩张与 AI 算力投入, 但毛利率提升至 68.0% (上年同期 68.7%),显示规 模效应与运营效率优化。 运营利润 382.75 亿美元 ,同比增⻓20.9%。 市场质疑 · 资本⽀出的⿊洞⻛险 - 本季度资本支出高达 375 亿美元,同比暴增 66%,多用于 GPU 与数据中心; FY26Q2核心财务数据 - 2026 财年第二季度总营收达 812.73 亿美元 ,同比增⻓ 16.7%,驱动核心为云服务收入增⻓ 26%至 515亿美元,AI 驱动的云业务持续高增⻓。 - Azure 与云服务收入同比激增 39% ,带动服务与其他收入达 648 亿美元,贡献超 80%营收,云业务成为核心增⻓引擎。 - 投资者质疑: 若 AI 硬件使用周期短于服务合同期限,折旧压力可能侵蚀利润,形成"期限错配"; - 与 Meta 将 AI 基建表外化不同,微软选择全额表内折旧,导致云 ...
异动盘点0206 | 茶饮股震荡走高,龙资源涨超35%;加密货币概念股大幅走弱,明星科技股普跌
贝塔投资智库· 2026-02-06 04:20
Group 1 - Lee & Man Paper (02314) has seen its stock price rise by over 30% year-to-date, with expected profits of approximately HKD 1.88 billion to HKD 2.00 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 38% to 47% due to increased marginal profits [1] - Soundon Technology (02495) shares rose over 8.8% after winning a contract worth nearly RMB 300 million for an AI project in Sichuan province [1] - Zhongxin Innovation (03931) stock increased by over 3.8%, with a reported 630% year-on-year growth in commercial battery deliveries in January 2026, indicating a strong market strategy and capacity layout [1] Group 2 - Tea stocks experienced a rise, with Gu Ming (01364) up 4.12%, Cha Bai Dao (02555) up 3.74%, and others benefiting from a promotional campaign offering free milk tea at over 300,000 stores nationwide [2] - Innovent Biologics (09969) shares surged over 11% after announcing expected revenues of RMB 2.37 billion in 2025, a 134% increase, and a projected net profit of around RMB 630 million [2] - Jun Da Holdings (02865) rebounded over 4.6% following news of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission accepting SpaceX's data center application [2] Group 3 - Li Auto-W (02015) shares rose over 5.3% as the CEO teased the new Li L9 model, emphasizing the importance of AI in enhancing vehicle value [3] - JX International Resources (03858) saw a stock increase of over 4.6% as tungsten prices reached a recent high of CNY 1,545,000 per ton, up CNY 25,000 from the previous trading day [3] - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) shares increased by over 5.7% after announcing a profit forecast for FY26H1 of CNY 2.15 billion to CNY 2.25 billion, a year-on-year growth of 216% to 231% [3] Group 4 - Long Resources (01712) stock surged over 35%, reaching a historical high, with expected after-tax profits of AUD 58 million to AUD 62 million for the year ending December 31, 2025, a significant increase from AUD 12.9 million in the previous year [4] Group 5 - Forgent Power Solutions (FPS.US) debuted on the U.S. stock market with a closing increase of 7.41%, focusing on power solutions for data centers [5] - Bob's Discount Furniture (BOBS.US) also entered the market, with a slight increase of 0.12%, managing 206 showrooms across 26 states and projecting revenues of USD 2.32 billion for FY2025 [5] Group 6 - Eikon Therapeutics (EIKN.US) fell over 16.67% on its Nasdaq debut, focusing on cancer therapies with a candidate drug in mid-stage trials [6] - Cryptocurrency stocks saw significant declines, with Hut 8 (HUT.US) down 17.89% and others following suit amid a Bitcoin sell-off, which dropped nearly 10% [6] Group 7 - Major U.S. indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq down 1.6%, and notable tech stocks like Amazon (AMZN.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) also declining [7] - Estée Lauder (EL.US) dropped nearly 19.19% despite meeting sales expectations, reflecting market volatility [7] Group 8 - NIO (NIO.US) shares rose 5.86% after announcing an expected adjusted operating profit of between RMB 700 million and RMB 1.2 billion for Q4 2025, marking its first quarterly adjusted operating profit [8] - Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US) initially surged nearly 14% before closing down 3.77%, launching a new generic medication at a competitive price [9] - Qualcomm (QCOM.US) fell 8.46% amid concerns over weak earnings forecasts related to chip shortages affecting smartphone demand [9]
异动盘点0205 | 煤炭股普遍回落,餐饮股涨幅居前;波士顿科学大跌17.59%,光伏太阳能股全线冲高
贝塔投资智库· 2026-02-05 04:01
Group 1: Insurance Sector - Insurance stocks are experiencing significant declines, with China Life (02628) down 3.75%, New China Life (01336) down 3.28%, and China Pacific Insurance (02601) down 2.74%. The government plans to issue approximately 200 billion yuan in special bonds to inject capital into major insurance companies, marking the first time this method will be used for insurance firms in China [1] Group 2: Logistics and Delivery - ZTO Express (02057) has seen an increase of over 2.3%. The company estimates that its total revenue for 2025 will be between 48.5 billion yuan and 50 billion yuan, representing a growth of approximately 9.5% to 12.9% compared to 44.2807 billion yuan in 2024 [1] Group 3: Biotechnology - Innovent Biologics (09969) has risen over 4%, with a current increase of 3.25%. The company anticipates achieving revenue of 2.37 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of approximately 134%, and expects to turn a profit with a net profit of around 630 million yuan [1] Group 4: Coal Sector - Coal stocks are generally declining, with Yancoal Australia (03668) down 6.63%, Shougang Resources (00639) down 7.83%, and China Shenhua (01088) down 2.47%. This decline follows reports that the Indonesian government has proposed a production cut plan, leading to a 40% to 70% reduction in production quotas for major miners [2] Group 5: Medical Devices - GigaGen (02367) has increased over 8%, currently up 4.11%. The company recently announced that its "recombinant type I α1 collagen and sodium hyaluronate composite solution" has been approved as a medical device, marking a significant milestone as the first product of its kind for improving facial smoothness [2] Group 6: Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks are all declining, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) down 5.91% and SMIC (00981) down 3.49%. This follows a significant drop in AMD's stock price by 17.31% after its fourth-quarter report indicated that while revenue exceeded expectations, the guidance for the first quarter was below market expectations [3] Group 7: Restaurant Sector - Restaurant stocks are performing well, with Yum China (09987) up 8.41% and Haidilao (06862) up 2.69%. The restaurant industry has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales in the sector growing by 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.2% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2025, significantly outpacing overall retail growth [3] Group 8: Consumer Goods - Miniso (09896) has risen over 5.1% after announcing its partnership with the Central Radio and Television Station for the 2026 Spring Festival Gala. This collaboration is seen as a significant marketing move to elevate the brand's visibility in the mainstream market [4] Group 9: Gold Sector - Gold stocks are declining, with China Gold International (02099) down 6.8% and Zijin Mining (02899) down 6.29%. Recent volatility in the international gold market has been noted, with expectations that geopolitical tensions and liquidity easing by the Federal Reserve may drive gold prices higher [4] Group 10: Cryptocurrency - Cryptocurrency ETFs and related stocks are continuing to decline, with significant drops in prices, including Bitcoin falling below $72,000 for the first time in 15 months. The price has decreased by over 42% from its peak last October [5] Group 11: US Market Highlights - Boston Scientific (BSX.US) fell 17.59% after providing lower-than-expected guidance for fiscal year 2026. The company expects adjusted earnings per share to be between $3.43 and $3.49, slightly below analyst expectations [6] - Solar stocks surged, with Enphase Energy (ENPH.US) rising 38.6% following reports of interest from Elon Musk's teams in the Chinese solar supply chain [6]
异动盘点0204 | AI新技术冲击软件股,内房股早盘普涨;AI应用软件股全线走弱,贵金属板块强势拉升
贝塔投资智库· 2026-02-04 04:03
点击蓝字,关注我们 今日上午港股 1 . 加密货币概念股早盘再度下跌,截至发稿, 迷策略(02440)跌4.76%,雄岸科技(01647)跌1.37%,欧 科云链(01499)跌0.58% 。 消息面上,周二,比特币一度跌破7.3万美元,跌破了2025年4月7日特朗普 公布对等关税后所创的年内低点。"大空头"巴里警告称,若比特币价格进一步下跌可能会迅速加剧主 要持有者的资产负债表压力,迫使整个加密货币生态系统进行抛售,并引发大范围的价值崩盘。 2 . AI新技术冲击软件股, 聚水潭(06687)今早一度跌近13%,创上市以来新低,截至发稿跌9.27% 。 消息面上,周二,由AI初创巨头Anthropic推出的新型自动化工具引发了市场对软件股的恐慌性抛售, 创下去年4月以来跌幅最大的一天。分析师指出,AI进展的预期已发生质变:从最初认为AI能"助力增 长",转向质疑AI是否会"彻底取代"传统订阅模式。 3 . 高地股份(01676)盘中跌近40% 。消息面上,香港联交所最新资料显示,1月15日,高地股份股东将 股票由凯基证券亚洲转入富途证券国际香港,转仓市值2095.26万港元,占比13.51%。高地股份发布 ...
异动盘点0203 | MINIMAX-WP早盘涨超12%,工程机械股延续涨势;航空、邮轮等旅游概念股齐升,迪士尼开盘跌7.4%
贝塔投资智库· 2026-02-03 04:02
Group 1 - SF Express (09699) expects a profit of no less than RMB 238 million for the year ending December 31, 2025, representing an increase of at least 80% compared to 2024. Adjusted net profit is projected to be no less than RMB 376 million, a growth of at least 158%, with revenue expected to reach no less than RMB 22 billion, a 40% increase from 2024 [1] - Fuhong Hanlin (02696) shares rose nearly 5% following a successful offline researcher meeting in San Francisco regarding its international multi-center Phase III clinical study for HLX22, a new anti-HER2 monoclonal antibody [1] - Xpeng Motors (09868) saw a decline of over 2.2% as it reported January vehicle deliveries of 20,011 units, a year-on-year decrease of 34.07% and a month-on-month decrease of 46.65% [1] Group 2 - Engineering machinery stocks continued to rise, with Zoomlion (01157) up 7.47% and Sany International (00631) up 3.57%. The total import and export trade of engineering machinery in China for 2025 is projected to be USD 62.743 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [2] - Ruipu Lanjun (00666) shares increased over 5% after announcing its first profit forecast since listing, expecting a net profit of RMB 630 million to RMB 730 million for the year ending December 31, 2025 [2] - Pony.ai (02026) shares rose over 2.5% following a partnership with Aitbot to build a fully autonomous driving service fleet [2] Group 3 - MINIMAX-WP (00100) shares surged over 12.7% after the release of the MiniMax Music 2.5 audio model, which achieved breakthroughs in "paragraph-level strong control" and "physical-level high fidelity" [3] - China International Marine Containers (02039) shares rose over 12% after discussing its data center business and container manufacturing performance in an investor relations activity [3] Group 4 - WanGuo Gold Group (03939) shares increased over 6.8% after announcing an expected profit of approximately RMB 1.4 billion to RMB 1.5 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 143% to 161% due to rising sales volume and prices of gold products [4] - Junda Co., Ltd. (02865) shares rose over 13% after completing a placement agreement [4] Group 5 - Carnival Cruise Line (CCL.US) shares rose 8.09% as U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed confidence in gaining Republican support to end the government shutdown [5] - Major tech stocks like AMD (AMD.US) and Intel (INTC.US) saw gains, with AMD up 4.03% and Intel up 5.04%, following unexpected expansion in U.S. manufacturing activity [5] - The storage sector strengthened, with SanDisk (SNDK.US) up 15.44% as demand for AI and data centers continues to drive price increases in DRAM and NAND Flash products [6] Group 6 - Disney (DIS.US) shares fell 7.4% despite reporting a 5% year-on-year revenue increase to USD 26 billion for Q1 2026, exceeding analyst expectations [7] - Coterra Energy (CTRA.US) shares dropped 3.6% following Devon Energy's announcement of a significant acquisition deal [6] - Oracle (ORCL.US) shares declined 2.75% as the company plans to raise USD 45 billion to USD 50 billion for expanding its cloud infrastructure [8]
异动盘点0202 | 芯片股、内房股走低;科磊大跌15.24%,美国电信巨头Verizon涨11.83%
贝塔投资智库· 2026-02-02 04:00
Group 1: Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks in Hong Kong experienced a decline, with notable drops including Huahong Semiconductor down 10.04%, GigaDevice down 8.72%, and SMIC down 4.77%. This follows a significant drop in South Korea's stock index and stricter order audits by major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix to mitigate market volatility caused by excessive orders and stockpiling [1][5]. - Naxin Microelectronics reported an expected revenue of RMB 3.3 billion to 3.4 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 68.34% to 73.45%, but also projected a net loss of RMB 2.5 billion to 2 billion, indicating a narrowing of losses [3]. Group 2: Automotive Sector - Great Wall Motors saw a decline of over 4.9% after announcing a 10.19% year-on-year increase in total revenue for 2025, but a 21.71% decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders [2]. Group 3: Telecommunications and Technology - Verizon's stock rose 11.83% after reporting the largest increase in mobile users since 2019, with a net addition of 616,000 users in the fourth quarter, exceeding market expectations [6]. - Tesla's stock increased by 3.32% as the company shifts focus from automotive to AI and robotics, planning to convert its Fremont factory for the production of the upcoming Optimus robot [5]. Group 4: Energy and Resources - China Shenhua Energy's stock fell over 5% after announcing an expected profit of RMB 50.8 billion to 55.8 billion for 2025, a decline of 18.6% to 10.6% compared to the previous year [4]. Group 5: Real Estate Sector - Chinese property stocks continued to decline, with companies like R&F Properties and Sunac China experiencing significant drops. Reports suggest that several developers may be exempt from disclosing "three red lines," indicating increased government attention to the struggling real estate sector [4]. Group 6: Financial Performance Highlights - Yihua Tong projected a net loss of RMB 550 million to 720 million for 2025, representing an increase in losses of 20.50% to 57.74% compared to the previous year [2]. - Cloud Voice announced an expected revenue of RMB 600 million to 620 million from its large model-related business in 2025, marking a staggering year-on-year growth of approximately 1057% to 1095% [3].
持仓追踪|柏基资本2025Q4最新动向
贝塔投资智库· 2026-01-31 16:34
Core Viewpoint - Baillie Gifford continues to focus on technology and growth sectors, maintaining a global perspective despite a reduction in total assets held to $120 billion, down $15 billion from the previous quarter [1]. Holdings Overview - As of Q4 2025, Baillie Gifford holds a total of 265 companies with assets amounting to $120 billion, reflecting a decrease of $15 billion from Q3 [1]. Top Holdings - The firm remains heavily invested in global technology and consumer giants, with a notable emphasis on Latin American e-commerce platform MercadoLibre, and Nvidia leading the portfolio, indicating confidence in the long-term potential of AI infrastructure [4]. Top Buys - Significant increases in holdings include: - Axon Enterprise (AXON) with an additional investment of $860 million - Medline Inc (MDLN) with $437 million - Rocket Lab (RKLB) with $399 million - Google-A (GOOGL) with $373 million - Duolingo (DUOL) with $357 million - The firm shows strong interest in vertical technology sectors, particularly in safety technology and education [5][6]. Top Sells - The firm has reduced its positions in: - Datadog Inc (DDOG) by $1.01 billion - Cloudflare (NET) by $990 million - Shopify (SHOP) by $680 million - BioNTech SE (BNTX) by $630 million - Meta Platforms (META) by $590 million - This indicates a strategic retreat from cloud computing and vaccine-related companies, likely based on valuation and growth switching logic [7][8]. New Positions - New investments include: - Medline Inc (MDLN) with $437 million - United Therapeutics (UTHR) with $157 million - MongoDB (MDB) with $112 million - BillionToOne (BLLN) with $104 million - Silvergate Capital (SVM) with $35 million - The new positions reflect Baillie Gifford's exploration in emerging fields such as rare disease treatment and databases, showcasing a commitment to long-term tracking in technology and healthcare [9][10].
异动盘点0130 | 光伏股再度走低,中国春来大涨超70%;贵金属概念股走低,好未来大涨18.03%
贝塔投资智库· 2026-01-30 04:00
点击蓝字,关注我们 5 . 东方甄选(01797)再涨超7%,昨日大涨超14%。截至发稿,涨7.45% 。消息面上,东方甄选日前发 布截至2025年11月30日止6个月业绩,该集团期内取得总营收23.12亿元人民币,同比增加5.7%;公司 拥有人应占溢利2.39亿元,同比扭亏为盈。同期毛利同比增长14.5%,超过了营收增速,毛利率从 33.6%提升至36.4%。 6 . 博雷顿(01333)盘中涨超17%,截至发稿,涨3.94% 。消息面上,博雷顿主席及控股股东陈方明近期 频繁增持股份。据公告,1月20日,陈方明增持博雷顿20.3万股,价值约452.98万港元;1月22日,陈 方明增持博雷顿5.5万股H股股份,价值约111.76万港元;1月28日,陈方明增持博雷顿1.8万股。 7 . 大健康国际(02211)暴跌超80%,回吐本月所有涨幅。截至发稿,跌80.78% 。消息面上,大健康国 际本月多次出现大手存转仓记录。香港联交所最新资料显示,1月20日,3044.03万股股票于当日被存 入粤商国际证券,该笔存仓股份市值3926.79万港元;1月26日,大健康国际股东将股票存入招银国际 证券,存仓市值5098.2 ...
新股速递|「技术为王,盈在未来」——澜起科技港股上市前解析
贝塔投资智库· 2026-01-30 00:01
点击蓝字,关注我们 公司简介 澜起科技成立于2004年,是一家专注于 内存接口与高速互连芯片设计 的高新技术企业,服务于云计算 与AI训练平台。公司产品覆盖 DDR内存接口芯片、PCIe Retimer、CXL控制器 等,是全球内存接口芯 片市场的领先者,全球市占率超 36% 。 市场格局 | 竞争领域(1 | 主要竞争对手(] | 澜起的市场地位(1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 内存接口芯片(1 | 瑞萨电子(日本)、Rambus(美国) | 全球第一,24年市场份额 36.8%2 | | PCle Retimer 芯片4 | Astera Labs(美国)、博通(2 | 全球第二,24年市场份额10.9%2 | | CXL 内存控制器(2 | Marvell (美国) ( | 全球首发量产 CXL MXC 芯片,成本较 | | | | Marvell 低 30% | | 时钟芯片( | 瑞萨、TI 等(2 | 新产品布局,已通过多家头部客户测试验证( | 澜起科技在 内存接口芯片 领域占据全球第一 ,2024年市占率达 36.8% ,领先瑞萨电子与Rambus。作为 DDR5国际标准的 ...
异动盘点0129 | 物管股跟随内房股走高,爱高集团早盘闪崩跌超70%;存储板块走高,英特尔涨11.04%
贝塔投资智库· 2026-01-29 04:04
Group 1 - Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing (02314) rose nearly 6% after Nine Dragons Paper announced a profit forecast of approximately 2.15 billion to 2.25 billion yuan for the six months ending December 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 216.0% to 230.7% [1] - New Oriental Education (09901) increased nearly 4% following the release of its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, showing a 14.7% year-on-year increase in net revenue and a 244.4% rise in operating profit [1] - Jolywood (06680) surged nearly 7% as rare earth prices continued to rise, with neodymium and praseodymium oxide prices increasing by over 120,000 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - Chinese property management stocks saw a significant rise, with Sunac Services (01516) up 5.67% and Greentown Services (02869) up 5.81%, as a report predicted an average revenue growth of 6% for property management companies by 2025 [2] - Valiant Pharmaceuticals (09887) gained nearly 4% after receiving FDA fast track designation for its dual-specific antibody LBL-034 for treating relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma [2] - The commercial aerospace sector showed signs of recovery, with Junda Co. (02865) rising 12.1% as the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation emphasized the importance of the next decade for developing a strong aerospace industry [2] Group 3 - Aigo Group (00328) experienced a dramatic drop, falling over 88% at one point, with a total market value dropping below 35 million HKD [3] - China Overseas Development (00688) rose over 4.2% as Citigroup's report indicated that the Chinese real estate sector would face significant impairment and margin decline challenges in fiscal year 2025 [3] - Yuegangwan Holdings (01396) increased by 8% after announcing a share placement to raise 108 million yuan, with about 70% allocated for AI computing power cloud service projects [3] Group 4 - Junda Co. (02865) saw a rise of 11.99% as the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation held a meeting emphasizing the need to overcome challenges in commercial rocket launches and reusable technology [4] Group 5 - In the US market, New Oriental (EDU.US) rose 5.32% after reporting a net revenue of 1.191 billion USD for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, a 14.7% year-on-year increase [5][6] - Semiconductor equipment and materials sector saw gains, with Texas Instruments (TXN.US) up 9.94% as it projected first-quarter revenue between 4.32 billion and 4.68 billion USD, slightly above analyst expectations [5] - Storage sector stocks surged, with Seagate Technology (STX.US) up 19.14% as it projected third-quarter revenue of 2.9 billion USD, significantly higher than analyst estimates [5]