Group 1 - The article discusses the shift of Chinese capital from U.S. Treasury bonds to non-U.S. asset classes such as gold, cryptocurrencies, European bonds, and offshore markets like Hong Kong stocks [3][10][12] - It highlights the long-standing trade surplus of China, which reached nearly $99 billion in a single month and over 7 trillion RMB for the entire year, indicating strong manufacturing competitiveness but weak domestic consumption [7][9] - The article emphasizes the need for structural reforms in China to enhance consumer spending, which is currently hindered by high savings rates and low consumption tendencies [4][8] Group 2 - The investment growth in China post-pandemic is primarily supported by high-end manufacturing, with fixed asset investment (FAI) growth accelerating since 2020 [5][7] - The article notes that the U.S. is experiencing rising inflation pressures due to increased costs from imports, which are not being passed on to consumers directly, complicating the effectiveness of tariff policies [10][11] - It points out that the ongoing accumulation of foreign assets by China, estimated at $2-3 trillion, is a response to its trade surplus and is likely to continue despite U.S. trade tensions [9][18] Group 3 - The article predicts that non-U.S. assets will outperform U.S. assets this year, particularly highlighting the potential for Hong Kong stocks to reach new highs, especially in the third quarter [4][20] - It discusses the impact of U.S. fiscal policies, including tax cuts and increased deficits, which may further exacerbate trade imbalances and keep China's trade surplus elevated [11][16] - The article concludes that the strengthening of offshore markets, particularly Hong Kong, is expected as global capital flows increasingly favor these regions due to the weakening dollar [12][20]

点击蓝字，关注我们 今日上午港股 1、地平线机器人-W(09660)涨超8% ，公司被调入深港通下港股通标的，机构料芯片出货有望逐年放 量； 6、知行科技(01274)早盘涨超3%， 近日再次收到某头部自主品牌出具的《定点开发通知》 7、吉宏股份(2603.HK)首日涨超52% ，作为"AI驱动跨境社交电商A+H第一股"公司称，其H股股票已 调入沪港通及深港通下的港股通标的证券名单，并自2025年5月27日起生效。 2、美团(03690)开盘跌近5%，后盘中一度转涨，现微跌。 Q1业绩超预期，CEO王兴"不惜一切赢得竞 争"、未给出业绩指引，竞争加剧，引发股价震荡。京东(09618)跌超3%。 3、KEEP(03650)最高涨超7% ，公司智能运动手表即将焕新登场，重磅升级AI跑步私教功能； 4、古茗(01364)涨超5%再创新高 ，预计6月9日入通，公司一季度同店增长明显，4、5月预计温和基 数下仍保持高速同比增长，二季度同店增速有望保持同比高位； 5、医药股集体上涨 ，石药集团(01093)、联邦制药涨超7%。消息上，多家创新药企业宣布将在5月30 日至6月3日举办的2025年美国临床肿瘤学会(ASCO) ...

Core Viewpoint - Horizon Robotics has gained significant attention in the market following its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, indicating strong recognition of its integrated software and hardware technology path and positioning as a leading supplier of intelligent assisted driving solutions in China [1][7]. Group 1: Product Development and Market Position - The launch of the Horizon Journey series has opened up growth opportunities, with the company continuously delivering high-performance software and hardware products, leading to strong market demand [2]. - The Journey series has achieved significant milestones, with cumulative shipments expected to exceed 8 million units by Q1 2025, and the company holds over 40% market share in the Chinese OEM advanced assisted driving solutions market, ranking first [2][4]. - The recent introduction of the HSD urban assisted driving system marks a significant advancement, with partnerships established with major clients like Chery Group and Volkswagen, indicating strong market acceptance and potential for high-end market penetration [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Outlook and Growth Potential - The successful launch and mass production of new products like HSD are expected to enhance the company's revenue and profit, indicating a positive trajectory for overall performance [4]. - The automotive industry is moving towards a "universal intelligent assisted driving" era, with major players like BYD leading the charge, which is likely to benefit Horizon Robotics significantly [5]. - Analysts have expressed optimism regarding Horizon's long-term growth potential, with several brokerages issuing "buy" ratings and predicting a turnaround to profitability by 2027 [7]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Horizon Robotics has developed a robust self-research BPU architecture, continuously iterating its Journey series, with the latest Journey 6 chip offering enhanced data processing capabilities for assisted driving systems [6]. - The Horizon Cell modular system allows for hardware plug-and-play and software upgrades, enhancing performance while reducing costs, positioning the company as a unique supplier in the market [6]. - The company has established partnerships with over 40 automotive brands, including the top ten Chinese automakers, with more than 800 million units shipped and over 200 models in mass production [6].

点击蓝字，关注我们 特朗普威胁对非美产 iPhone 征收25%关税，苹果股价盘前跌超3%。 华尔街知名投资机构Wedbush Securities在特朗普威胁将对于苹果征收25%关税后指出，特朗普此举令 投资者情绪转向悲观，尽管面临特朗普施加的关税压力， 苹果及其制造合作伙伴仍然很可能继续将 iPhone生产中心留在印度和中国。 美国消费电子巨头苹果公司(AAPL.US)股价在周五美股盘前大幅下跌近4%，此前美国总统特朗普表 示， 凡是非在美国生产的iPhone将被征收 25% 关税 。与此同时，特朗普周五还表示，建议自6月1日 起对欧盟征50%的关税，强调美国与欧盟的谈判毫无进展，两大最新的利空因素共同导致苹果以及英 伟达、微软等美国科技巨头盘前股价集体下挫。 特朗普在 Truth Social 上最新发布的帖子显示："我早已告知苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆·库克， 我期望 将在美国销售的iPhone 必须在美国制造生产，而不是在印度或其他任何地方。 如果情况并非如此， 苹果公司必须向美国政府支付至少25%的关税。 感谢大家对此事的关注!" 截至发稿，苹果尚未回应媒体们的置评请求。特朗普威胁征收25%关税的具体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate is facing unprecedented challenges regarding the fiscal capacity of the government as it works on a multi-trillion dollar tax reform and spending plan proposed by President Trump, with the debt ceiling increase tied to this significant economic legislation [1][2] Group 1: Legislative Challenges - The tax reform bill is undergoing lengthy scrutiny in the Senate, with Republican lawmakers indicating substantial modifications will be made before passage [1][2] - The House version of the bill narrowly passed, suggesting potential turbulence when the revised bill returns for approval [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions - As the potential default deadline approaches, political maneuvering may incite market panic, with Treasury Secretary warning of exhausting borrowing capacity by August if the debt ceiling is not raised [2] - Short-term Treasury bond prices have declined, with yields on bonds maturing in August reaching 4.34% [2] Group 3: Internal Republican Dynamics - The ability to raise the debt ceiling hinges on whether Republicans can reach consensus on the tax reform proposal, with Senate leaders acknowledging the difficulty of securing majority votes by July 4 [3] - There are conflicting views within the party regarding tax cuts and spending reductions, complicating the legislative process [3][4] Group 4: Proposed Modifications - Some senators are advocating for the permanent extension of certain tax cuts, while others are pushing for increased tax credits, which could heighten fiscal pressure and lead to more stringent spending cuts [4] - The debate includes contentious issues such as state and local tax deductions, with some lawmakers threatening to withdraw support unless their demands are met [4] Group 5: Democratic Opposition - Although Democrats are excluded from the budget reconciliation process, they can challenge non-fiscal provisions in the bill, potentially prolonging the legislative review [5] - Democratic senators are actively opposing the bill, citing numerous policy contents that do not comply with Senate rules [5]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Highlights - Giant Bio (02367) opened down over 8% due to concerns over the collagen content in its product, with a current decline of over 3% [1] - Horizon Robotics-W (09660) opened up over 3% as it officially enters the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, but is now down over 3% [1] - Fubo Group (03738) rose over 6% with a Q1 revenue growth of approximately 23%, accelerating its AI ecosystem layout [1] - Tongcheng Travel saw an initial rise of nearly 14%, reaching a historical high, with Q1 performance exceeding expectations; accommodation revenue grew by 23.3% year-on-year [1] - BYD initiated a price war with 22 models in its Dynasty and Ocean series seeing price cuts of up to 53,000 yuan, leading to declines in the entire electric vehicle sector [1] - Power stocks rose across the board, with Shanghai Electric (02727) seeing a peak increase of over 10%, currently up over 6% [1] - Semiconductor stocks performed well, with Hua Hong Semiconductor up over 2.6% and SMIC up 1.3%, amid news of asset restructuring between major semiconductor firms [1] Group 2: US Stock Market Highlights - Miniso (MNSO.US) plummeted over 17% due to a decline in profits for Q1 [3] - Intuit (INTU.US) rose over 8% as Q3 results exceeded expectations, driven by growth in its personal finance platform and accounting software [3] - Workday (WDAY.US) fell over 12% despite Q1 earnings exceeding expectations by a small margin [3] - U.S. Steel (X.US) surged over 20% as negotiations between Nippon Steel and the U.S. government reached the final stages [3] - Apple shares dropped 3% following threats from Trump regarding tariffs if production is not moved back to the U.S. [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Heart Medical (2291.HK) saw a peak increase of 28.33% during the day, with a dividend of 0.673664 HKD per share announced; the company reported a 44.78% year-on-year revenue growth for FY2024 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic merger of "零食很忙" and "赵一鸣零食," forming "鸣鸣很忙," which is positioned as the largest retail player in China's snack and beverage market, with a focus on expanding product categories and market reach [1][3]. Market Overview - The Chinese snack and beverage retail market is projected to grow to RMB 4.9 trillion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% from 2024 to 2029. The growth in lower-tier markets is expected to outpace higher-tier markets, with a CAGR of 6.8% compared to 4.1% [1]. - The market share in the snack retail sector is fragmented, with "鸣鸣很忙" holding a 1.5% market share, slightly ahead of its closest competitor, 万辰集团, at 1.4% [4][5]. Business Model and Expansion - "鸣鸣很忙" operates primarily through a franchise model, with 99.9% of its stores being franchises, generating approximately 98.8% of its revenue from franchise sales [6][8]. - The company aims to enhance its bargaining power through increased store numbers, which is expected to lower prices by 10% compared to competitors [8]. Financial Performance - The company reported a GMV of RMB 55.5 billion in 2024, with a total of 14,394 stores across 28 provinces, focusing heavily on lower-tier cities [11]. - Despite achieving a significant GMV, the average GMV per transaction has been declining [11]. - The net profit for 2024 reached RMB 8.34 billion, marking a 284% increase year-on-year, indicating strong profitability compared to industry peers [14][15]. Supply Chain and Operational Challenges - The company has established 36 warehouses, allowing for efficient distribution within a 300 km radius, but faced supply chain issues leading to stockouts in 300 stores due to a warehouse system failure [16][17]. - The inventory turnover days are reported at 11.6 days, which is significantly better than competitors, indicating strong supply chain management [16]. Product Strategy - The business model focuses on a mix of branded and private label products, with private label products contributing significantly to profitability due to higher margins [18]. - The company has faced challenges related to product quality control, with complaints about food safety issues [18]. Future Directions - The company plans to expand into discount supermarkets and develop its own brands, aiming to diversify its product offerings beyond snacks [19][20]. - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of its growth model, especially with recent shareholder exits and significant dividend payouts prior to the IPO [20].

Macroeconomic and Policy Aspects - European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde indicated that the ECB will announce its latest interest rate decision on June 5, following seven rate cuts in the past year, with expectations for continued easing to boost economic growth [1] - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained a stance of not rushing to cut rates during a commencement speech at Princeton University [2] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda noted increased uncertainty from trade policies and indicated that future rate hikes will depend significantly on the impact of tariffs on the economy [1][2] Economic Data Releases - U.S. April durable goods orders are expected to drop sharply from 9.2% to -8.2%, while core capital goods orders are projected to rise slightly from 0.1% to 0.2% [2] - U.S. April PCE price index is anticipated to slow down by 0.1 percentage points to 2.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [3] Industry Events - OPEC+ announced plans to gradually increase production to 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026, with a significant increase of 411,000 barrels per day planned for July [4] - Huawei held a launch event for its new product, the Respect S800 [5] Company-Specific Events - Meituan is expected to report Q1 2026 revenue of 86.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.07%, with a focus on its delivery and local services [6] - Pinduoduo is projected to achieve Q1 2025 revenue of 103.368 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.07%, while expected earnings per share will decline by 9.77% [6] - Xiaomi is forecasted to report Q1 revenue of 106.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 41.6%, driven by recovery in the smartphone market and government subsidies [7]

Group 1 - Bitcoin price recently surpassed $111,000, reaching an all-time high, driven by bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market [1] - The optimism among investors is partly due to the U.S. Senate advancing a stablecoin bill, signaling potential regulatory clarity for the crypto industry under the Trump administration [1] - Strategy (MSTR.US) has accumulated over $60 billion in Bitcoin and plans to raise up to $2.1 billion through the issuance of perpetual preferred stock to further increase its Bitcoin holdings, reflecting institutional confidence [1] Group 2 - A new company, Twenty One Capital, initiated by Tether, SoftBank, and Cantor Fitzgerald, aims to create a treasury focused on Bitcoin, following the business model of Strategy [2] - The performance gap between Bitcoin and other altcoins is widening, with Bitcoin's year-to-date increase of 18% contrasting with a 40% decline in a mainstream altcoin index [2] - The U.S. market has seen significant inflows into 12 Bitcoin spot ETFs, with approximately $4.2 billion in net inflows recorded in May alone [2] Group 3 - In the options market, traders have built positions in Bitcoin call options with strike prices up to $300,000, indicating strong expectations for further price increases [3] - Analysts suggest that the recent price drop from January's peak to April's low was a technical adjustment within a bull market, with the next target for Bitcoin set at $125,000 after breaking the $110,000 level [3]

点击蓝字，关注我们 瑞银认为，这种优异表现反映了多个因素，包括：1）上市企业的质量和年份改善；2）中国内地 IPO 限制收紧；3）香港流动性改善； 4）外国投资者对中国核心资产的需求增加。 这些新上市公司反过来进一步多元化并增强了 H 股的行业组合，且随着关税暂时缓和、外国投资者 持仓较低，以及中国股市估值相比其他市场较低，瑞银继续对 H 股持乐观看法。 一、短期 A-H 溢价可能收窄 A-H 溢价目前为 33%，接近 10 年平均水平，但低于近期 5 年平均水平。 外国投资者对中国核心资产的需求正在增强？ 今年香港 IPO 市场已复苏，年初至今融资总额达 90 亿美元，尽管仍低于 2020 年的峰值，但同比增长 320%。今年的 IPO 年初至今平均回报率达 18%，跑赢恒生指数 （+13%）；相比之下，前几年 IPO 后三个月的平均回报率仅为 4%。 香港 IPO 后三个月平均回报率 瑞银注意到，例如 MSCI 中国指数对在香港上市的股票不采用基于市场的扣减（下次重新平衡公告日 期为次年 8 月 7 日），而恒生科技指数（HSTECH）在其成分股中偏好高科技公司（季度重新平 衡）。 瑞银估计，跟踪恒生科技 ...