Key Points - The article highlights significant stock movements in the Hong Kong and US markets, with various companies experiencing notable gains and losses due to recent developments and announcements [1][2][3][4][5] Hong Kong Market Highlights - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) surged nearly 20%, with a year-to-date increase of 320%, as the company proposed a spin-off of its gold segment for independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - Innovent Biologics (09969) rose nearly 4% after announcing the clinical approval of its new ADC innovative drug ICP-B794 [1] - North Sea Kangcheng - B (01228) increased over 50%, with its stock price doubling in three days, marking it as a rare disease stock in the Hong Kong market [1] - Hong Kong Travel (00308) saw a rise of over 24%, achieving a year-to-date stock price doubling, driven by market speculation on stablecoin cross-border payment scenarios [1] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) gained nearly 3% after receiving drug registration approval for Mesalazine enteric-coated tablets, enhancing its product line in the immune system treatment sector [1] - Ruian Real Estate (00272) rose over 4%, with a cumulative contract property sales amount for the first six months increasing by 457% year-on-year [1] - Cornerstone Pharmaceuticals - B (02616) increased over 3%, planning to raise HKD 467 million for clinical research on CS2009 [1] - Q Technology (01478) rose over 7%, with mobile camera module sales of 32.648 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [1] - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419) increased by 6%, with a new cycle logic continuing to strengthen, and Tianfeng Securities set a target price of HKD 154 [1] - Contemporary Amperex Technology (03750) rose over 3%, reaching a new high since its listing, following a deepened strategic cooperation agreement with Geely Automobile [2] - Gaming stocks continued to rise, with Wynn Macau (01128) up 6.49%, New World Development (00200) up 6.15%, and others showing similar gains [2] - Gold stocks faced declines, with Golden Resources (GORO.US) dropping nearly 10% and others following suit [4] US Market Highlights - Stablecoin concept stocks continued to rise, with Tiger Brokers (TIGR.US) increasing over 8% [4] - Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.US) rose over 2% as the company seeks SEC approval for a blue-chip cryptocurrency ETF [4] - Wolfspeed (WOLF.US) continued to rise, with stock prices increasing over 9% [4] - Intel (INTC.US) rose over 7% after announcing company-wide layoffs [4] - JD.com (JD.US) increased over 2% as it launched its "Double Hundred Plan" for its delivery service [4]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft (MSFT.US) and Oracle (ORCL.US) are expected to benefit significantly from certain provisions of President Trump's "Great Beautiful Act," leading to a substantial increase in free cash flow [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Impact - Evercore ISI maintains a "Outperform" rating for Microsoft, raising the target price from $500 to $515, while Oracle's target price is increased from $180 to $215 [1]. - Estimated free cash flow increases are projected at $11 billion (approximately $1.5 per share) for Microsoft and $3.3 billion (approximately $1.12 per share) for Oracle [1]. Group 2: Tax Policy Changes - The act includes the restoration of full domestic R&D expense deductions and the reimplementation of 100% bonus depreciation for qualified capital expenditures from 2025 to 2029 [2]. - The net effect is that R&D spending in 2025 could receive an additional 80% cash tax savings, while capital expenditures will be fully deductible in the first year starting in 2025 [2]. Group 3: Industry Implications - Microsoft and Oracle are identified as the largest beneficiaries due to their high capital expenditures, projected at $69.7 billion and $23.6 billion respectively in 2025, primarily focused on AI and data center development [2]. - The broader impact suggests that various industries will benefit from these policy changes, with expectations of increased investment in the technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence [2].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in trust towards the US dollar and US Treasury bonds may lead to structural shocks in risk assets like stocks, especially as the dollar has experienced its weakest performance in decades [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index fell by 10.7% against other major currencies by June, marking the worst half-year performance since 1973 [1]. - Multiple negative factors, including worsening fiscal conditions and geopolitical tensions, are exerting downward pressure on the dollar, with expectations of further challenges in the second half of the year [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Despite the dollar's depreciation, there has not been a significant impact on the US stock market, as over 40% of S&P 500 companies' revenues come from overseas, making a weaker dollar beneficial for US exports [2]. - The US public debt is nearing $30 trillion, with projected fiscal deficits exceeding $2 trillion by 2025, raising concerns about the dollar's dominance [2]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks are increasing gold reserves, with monthly purchases reaching 24 tons, reflecting a strategic intent to diversify away from the dollar amid ongoing trade and fiscal issues [2]. - The price of gold has seen its highest increase since 1979 in the first half of the year, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as historical trends show that the dollar and US Treasury yields can rise during previous easing cycles [3]. - Divergent views exist among Wall Street institutions regarding the dollar's future, with some emphasizing its irreplaceable role in global trade and finance, while others predict a slow "de-dollarization" process due to the shortcomings of alternative currencies [3]. - Despite recent fluctuations, underlying risks such as debt crises and policy uncertainties continue to exert pressure on the dollar [3].

点击蓝字，关注我们 今日上午港股 1.布鲁可 (00325) 再涨超 4% ，公司与奥特曼 IP 深化合作 将发布多款奥特曼系列新品。 2.阅文集团 (00772) 涨超 4% ， 战略投资 Softopia 超级元气工厂 入局毛绒潮玩赛道。 3.协鑫科技 (03800) 现涨超 4% ， 多晶硅环节或成反内卷政策突破口 公司有望率先实现扭亏为盈。 4.黄金股早盘反弹 ，潼关黄金 (00340) 涨 5.39%，中国黄金国际 (02099) 涨 4.4%，紫金矿业 (02899) 涨 1.97%，山东黄金 (01787) 涨 1.68%。 5.H&H 国际控股 (01112) 再跌超 3% ，公司中期业绩逊于预期 花旗对其展开下行短期观察。 6.升能集团 (02459) 早盘跌超 16% ， 折让 55.56% 供股 ，净筹约 4450 万港元。 7.汇通达网络 (09878) 早盘涨超 8% ，公司申请 H 股全流通 有望增强股票流动性与投资吸引力。 8.耐世特 (01316) 早盘涨超 5% ，特斯拉首次试运行无人驾驶出租车 公司有望显著首益。 9.稳定币概念股继续攀升， 国泰君安国际 (01788) 涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - xAI, founded by Elon Musk, is set to release its latest AI model, Grok-4, which is expected to significantly enhance Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Optimus humanoid robot capabilities [1][4]. Group 1: Grok-4 Release and Features - Grok-4 is anticipated to outperform OpenAI and Google's latest AI models in language, mathematics, and reasoning [2]. - Grok-4 Code will serve as a personal coding assistant for top developers, potentially integrating into customized code editors [2]. - The release of Grok-4 is expected to intensify competition with OpenAI's GPT series and Google's Gemini 2.5 Pro [2]. Group 2: AI Application Trends - The emergence of low-cost AI training and inference paradigms is likely to lead to a surge in generative AI applications across various industries, boosting productivity [3]. - Companies like C3.ai, APPlovin, and Palantir have reported strong performance and outlooks, indicating robust demand for enterprise AI applications [3]. Group 3: Integration with Tesla's AI Systems - The integration of Grok with Tesla's AI supercomputing system is expected to enhance the reasoning capabilities of FSD and Optimus, likened to a leap in human intelligence [4][5]. - Grok's capabilities in natural language understanding, reasoning, and physical simulation will complement Tesla's real-time data processing and decision-making abilities [4]. - The combined system will enable simultaneous task handling in autonomous driving, enhancing obstacle detection, path planning, and in-car voice interaction [5]. Group 4: Market Reaction - Following Musk's announcement of forming a new political party, Tesla's stock fell nearly 7%, resulting in a market cap loss of over $68 billion, raising concerns about the company's core automotive business [5].

Market Overview - The US stock market was closed on July 4th for Independence Day [1] Hong Kong Stock Market Highlights - Yum China (09987) rose over 3% after announcing the establishment of an innovation fund to convert operational needs into practical applications [2] - H&H International Holdings (01112) fell over 7%, expecting a 45% to 65% decline in net profit for the first half of the year [2] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) surged nearly 9% as it plans to spin off its gold business for independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, potentially seeking financing before the spin-off [2] - Health Road (02587) jumped over 18% as its controlling shareholder voluntarily extended the lock-up period, focusing on digital health services [2] - Smoore International (06969) increased over 5% with the launch of Glo Hilo in Japan, maintaining high profit margins [2] - Tencent Music (01698) rose nearly 3% as institutions noted that recent acquisition plans would enhance overall content supply [2] - Jihong Co., Ltd. (02603) surged over 7%, with a projected net profit increase of over 55% year-on-year for the first half [2] - Solar stocks collectively declined, with Xinyi Solar (00968) down 4.86%, Fuyao Glass (06865) down 3.88%, New Energy (01799) down 3.19%, and Xinyi Glass (00868) down 2.64% [2] Other Notable Movements - Kuaishou-W (01024) rose over 3% as it plans to launch a live streaming initiative across multiple cities to create a collaborative ecosystem [3] - Gold stocks faced pressure, with Shandong Gold (01787) down 5.09%, China Gold International (02099) down 3.44%, Lingbao Gold (03330) down 2.68%, and Chifeng Jilong Gold (06693) down 2.33% [3] - China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) increased over 3% after the approval of a merger and acquisition restructuring plan, optimizing resources in the shipbuilding industry [3] - Medical device stocks saw a broad increase, with Spring Medical (01858) up 6.36%, Yongsheng Medical (01612) up 7.27%, Xinwei Medical-B (06609) up 3.55%, and Microneuroscience (02172) up 1.12% [3] - Some stablecoin concept stocks rose, with Victory Securities (08540) up 6.9%, Guotai Junan International (01788) up 5.15%, Yika (09923) up 2.59%, and China Everbright Holdings (00165) up 1.96% [3] - SF Express City (09699) rose nearly 7% amid intensified competition in the food delivery sector, with expectations of increased order volume [3] - HSSP International (03626) fell over 20% after being named by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for high stock concentration [3] Strategic Partnerships and New Listings - Shengye (06069) opened nearly 15% higher after forming a strategic partnership with Stand Robot to enhance its robotics industry chain [4] - Beverage stocks opened high, with Cha Bai Dao (02555) up 15%, Nayuki's Tea (02150) up 9.87%, Gu Ming (01364) up 5.77%, Hu Shang Ayi (02589) up 2.99%, and Mixue Group (02097) up 2.92% [4] - FWD Group (01828) had a flat opening on its first day of listing, being a life insurance company under Li Zeqiang's control [4]

点击蓝字，关注我们 · 政府及企业订单恢复 （2023年新签约客户194名，较2022年175名增长10.9%）。 · 海外市场扩张 （已覆盖全球160个城市，800+客户，包括阿联酋、新加坡等）。 | | 2022年 | | 2023年 | | 2024年 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 人民幣 | 96 | 人民幣 | 95 | 人民幣 | 45 | | | | | (人民幣千元,百分比除外) | | | | | AI產業數智化. | 472.456 | 64.0 | 624,103 | 62.0 | 1.640.645 | 89.0 | | AI城市智能化. | 152.660 | 20.7 | 224.047 | 22.3 | 144.633 | 7.8 | | AI智慧生活 .. | 80.806 | 10.9 | 76,738 | 7.6 | 30.886 | 1.7 | | AI智慧能源 .. | 32,366 | 4.4 | 81,360 | 8.1 | 26.935 | 1.5 | | 總計 | 738,288 | 10 ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 动荡半年，难改美股多头们看涨热浪。越来越多投资者坚定看涨2025年下半场。 美股基准指数——标普500指数在堪称"剧烈动荡曲线"的历史罕见曲折轨迹中结束2025年上半年的"另 类牛市交易"，并创下收盘创纪录历史高位，投资者们对于美股的牛市信仰自4月触底大反攻以来似乎 愈发坚定。展望2025年下半场交易趋势，经历跌宕六个月，市场可谓"牛气不减"，投资者们在2025下 半年有望继续坚持"美股长期牛市信仰"，延续这股席卷全球的"Buy America"(买入一切美国资产)超级 风潮。 整体而言，从复盘角度来看，在4月份自前次历史高点大幅回落逾19%后，在"逢低买入"势力大举推 动之下这一基准指数只用了两个月便大幅反弹并再创新高，因市场对特朗普主导的关税政策冲击的最 坏担忧情绪迅速消退，与此同时AI热潮持续推动美股大举反攻——微软(MSFT.US)、谷歌 (GOOGL.US)以及英伟达(NVDA.US)等科技巨头强劲业绩表现以及它们的业绩展望显示出全球对于人 工智能领域的资本支出狂潮未见任何程度消退，全球AI算力需求持续激增的逻辑不断催化这些占据标 普500指数高权重的科技巨头们股价大幅上涨，进而 ...

（1）消费方面 - 初步复苏（与政策支持和房地产市场相关） 摩根大通中国策略师Wendy Liu刘鸣镝的 2025 年下半年展望报告， 结论仍然是超配中国互联网和消费类股票。 过去一年，以美元计价的MSCI中国指数上涨了 32%（今年以来上涨 18%），且回到了其 20 年的市盈率平均水平（目前为 11.5 倍，而平均水平 为 11.9 倍）。 这就引出了一个问题："接下来会怎样？" 以及这轮上涨能否持续。摩根大通认为有三大因素支持得出积极的结论： 一、消费 - 初步复苏 中国消费的复苏是 2025 年下半年的一个关键主题。作为消费的代理指标，零售销售额自 2023 年以来平均增长率仅为 5.4%（而新冠疫情前为 9- 10%），但最近开始出现回升迹象。这一点很重要，因为消费的提升将：（a）改善中国当前供过于求的供需平衡状况；（b）减轻通缩压力； （c）提高企业的定价能力和盈利能力。要让零售销售额的增长复苏持续下去，需关注以下几点： 在小摩看来，消费和互联网板块尤其值得关注，因为其每股收益（EPS）和自由现金流（FCF）趋势已开始回升（以下图表以恒生科技指数作为互 联网板块的代理指标），但到目前为止，其股价仍 ...

Group 1 - China's actual GDP growth rate reached 5.2% in the first half of the year, slightly exceeding targets, but nominal GDP remains relatively weak due to ongoing deflation in CPI and PPI [2] - Fiscal policy has been front-loaded with measures such as local debt replacement, subsidies for trade-ins, and increased social security spending, resulting in faster expenditure growth from January to May compared to previous years, potentially overextending growth for the remainder of the year [2] - The upcoming high-level meeting in July is expected to adopt a more moderate and observational tone, with no significant fiscal stimulus likely until after the trade pause between China and the U.S. ends in August [2] Group 2 - Additional policy measures are anticipated in the fall, likely waiting for clearer data in the third quarter, with expectations set for late September or October [2] - Despite the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates this year, significant cuts are expected in the future, potentially totaling 175 basis points over the next two years [2] - The U.S. dollar is projected to depreciate by another 10%, following a previous 10% decline, leading to a cumulative depreciation of 20% [2] Group 3 - China's promotion of stablecoins is not aimed at making them investment tools or exchange instruments, but rather focuses on cross-border trade settlement [2] - It is suggested to combine export controls on strategic resources like rare earths with stablecoin pilot programs, involving state-owned enterprises and banks to issue stablecoins specifically for rare earth trade, thereby strengthening financial autonomy [3] - A humanoid robot contains an average of 1 kg of rare earths, 2 kg of lithium, 3 kg of graphite, and 6.5 kg of copper, with China currently holding 88% of global rare earth supply, 93% of graphite, and 75% of lithium refining market [3] Group 4 - By 2050, the demand for strategic mineral resources in the global robotics industry is estimated to reach $800 billion [4]