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10日投资提示:牧原股份预计半年度盈利增长1130%至1190%
集思录· 2025-07-09 14:11
志特转债:强赎 友发集团:预计2025年半年度盈利2.77亿至3.07亿,同比增长151.69%至178.93% 福斯特:预计上半年净利润同比减少49.05% 牧原股份:预计2025年半年度盈利102亿至107亿,同比增长1129.97%至1190.26% 锡振转债:7月14日上市 华辰转债,路维转债:【上市】 关注集思录微信 特别提示 本文不构成任何投资建议,仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损,本公众号 及作者概不承担任何责任。 集思录(www.jisilu.cn)是一个以数据为本的投资理财社区,专注于新股、可转债、债券、封闭 基金等数据服务。我们的理念是在保证本金安全的前提下,使资产获得稳健增长。 快捷查询: 搜索公众号"jisilu8"添加我们 泰福泵业:公司拟现金收购南洋华诚不低于51%股份 漱玉转债,声迅转债,文科转债:不下修 ...
未来一线城市的房子租售比可能到4%吗?
集思录· 2025-07-09 14:11
Core Viewpoint - The rental yield in first-tier cities in China is currently around 1.5% to 2%, significantly lower than the 4% benchmark, suggesting that property prices may need to decrease by 40% to 50% to reach a more sustainable rental yield [1][2]. Group 1: Rental Yield Comparisons - Rental yields in major international cities are higher than those in Chinese first-tier cities, with Tokyo at approximately 5% to 6.9%, New York around 6%, Los Angeles at about 4%, and London at approximately 5% [1]. - Historical rental yields in Shenzhen have decreased from 7% in 2007 to an estimated 1.5% in 2025, indicating a long-term downward trend [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The shift from "agreement transfer" to "public bidding" for land sales in 2004 led to increased land prices, which subsequently drove up property prices, with a 40% increase noted from 2004 to 2006 [4]. - The cultural context in China, where homeownership is prioritized over renting, contributes to a higher demand for purchasing homes compared to renting, resulting in a supply-demand imbalance in the rental market [5][6]. Group 3: Future Projections - If rental yields are to improve, societal acceptance of renting as a viable long-term living arrangement must increase, similar to trends observed in other countries [6]. - The potential introduction of property taxes in China could alter the pricing structure of real estate, leading to further declines in property values and increased rental yields [2].
7月9日投资提示:盟升电子股东拟询价转让3.68%股份
集思录· 2025-07-08 14:54
Group 1 - The article discusses the strong redemption of QuanFeng Convertible Bonds and the lack of strong redemption for SongLin and HaoMei Convertible Bonds [1] - MengSheng Electronics' shareholders plan to transfer 3.68% of the company's shares through inquiry [1] - ZhengFan Technology intends to purchase 62.23% equity of HanJing Semiconductor in cash [1] Group 2 - YongJin Co.'s actual controller is under bail pending trial [1] - HangYang, AoWei, and Tian23 Convertible Bonds will not undergo adjustment [1] - GuangNuclear Convertible Bonds are open for subscription [1]
经济差,工作难找,学历一般的孩子怎么办?
集思录· 2025-07-08 14:54
Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by recent graduates in finding employment, highlighting a specific case of a nephew who graduated from a less prestigious university and has not secured a job yet [1] - It emphasizes the importance of self-reliance and the need for young individuals to start working, even in low-paying jobs, to gain experience and skills [4][11] - The narrative includes personal anecdotes about different career paths and the varying success rates of individuals based on their educational background and job choices [6][9] Group 2 - The article suggests that joining the military could be a viable option for young individuals, especially those from difficult backgrounds, as it provides stable income and benefits [2][3] - It outlines the pros and cons of military service, indicating that while it offers financial security, it may not suit those with strong personal ambitions or unique talents [2] - The discussion also touches on the evolving job market, indicating that opportunities have improved compared to previous years, but still require effort and adaptability from job seekers [11][13]
7月8日投资提示:天能重工股东拟询价转让4%股份
集思录· 2025-07-07 12:33
Group 1 - Recent trend of shareholders opting for inquiry-based share reductions instead of direct secondary market sales, indicating a competitive bidding process based on price, quantity, and time priority [1] - Huayou Cobalt expects a net profit of 2.6 to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.62% to 67.59% [1] - Tianeng Heavy Industry's shareholders plan to transfer 4% of the company's shares through inquiry [1] Group 2 - Announcement regarding the Blue Fan convertible bond is pending [1] - Huachen and Luwei convertible bonds are set to be listed on July 10 [1]
十年了,过来人谈谈2015年7月股市的腥风血雨
集思录· 2025-07-07 12:33
Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the past ten years since the significant stock market crash in July 2015, highlighting the volatility and the lessons learned from trading experiences during that period [1]. Group 1: Market Performance and Personal Experiences - The Shanghai Composite Index has fluctuated around 3400 points a decade after the crash from 5178 points in 2015 [1]. - Many traders experienced significant losses during the market downturn, with some recalling their mistakes and missed opportunities, emphasizing the importance of learning from past experiences [2][3]. - The article mentions specific trading strategies, such as short selling and arbitrage, which some traders employed during the market's volatility [2][9]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Reflections - Some traders successfully capitalized on market conditions, such as engaging in arbitrage with split funds, achieving returns of up to 40% [5]. - The narrative includes reflections on the emotional toll of trading, with traders expressing feelings of fear and regret during downturns, yet also highlighting eventual recovery and learning [3][4]. - The importance of maintaining a long-term perspective and a positive mindset is emphasized, with references to historical wisdom about the transient nature of market conditions [3].
7日投资提示:航天宏图实控人拟转让5.1%股份给百瑞金钩私募
集思录· 2025-07-06 14:02
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various companies' stock movements, including share transfers and bond adjustments, indicating potential investment opportunities and market trends [1]. Group 1: Share Transfers - Aotewei's controlling shareholder plans to transfer 4.99% of the company's shares [1]. - The controlling shareholder of Yirui Bio intends to reduce their holdings by no more than 3% [1]. - The consistent action party of Aerospace Hongtu plans to transfer 5.1% of shares to a private equity fund [1]. - Guolian Aviation's shareholder intends to reduce their holdings by no more than 1% [1]. Group 2: Convertible Bonds - Qilu Convertible Bond is subject to strong redemption [1]. - Qibin Convertible Bond has been adjusted down to the lowest level [1]. - Several convertible bonds, including Tian Nai, Tai 21, Jing Neng, Changqi, Jin Neng, and Oujia, will not undergo adjustments [1]. - Guangneng Convertible Bond is set for subscription on July 9 [1]. Group 3: New Stock Offerings - Huadian New Energy is listed for subscription on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1]. - Two REITs, Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT (508016) and Chuangjin Hexin Shounong REIT (508039), are available for subscription [1].
为什么消费刺激不起来
集思录· 2025-07-06 14:02
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disparity in wealth distribution in China and its impact on consumer spending, highlighting that a small percentage of high-net-worth individuals hold a significant portion of the country's savings, which affects overall consumption levels [1][2][3]. Group 1: Wealth Distribution - As of May 2025, total deposits in China reached 326 trillion yuan, with household deposits at 160 trillion yuan, and the one-year deposit interest rate has fallen below 1% [1]. - The top 10% of depositors control nearly 70% of total deposits, while around 600 million people have deposits close to zero [1]. - The top 20% of high-net-worth families own approximately 83% of household deposits, while the bottom 40% hold only about 2.5% [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The article argues that the focus of consumption stimulation should be on high-net-worth individuals rather than the working class, as the current policies do not effectively address the wealth concentration issue [2][3]. - There is a notable difference in consumption patterns between China and the U.S., where the top 10% of earners account for 50% of consumption in the U.S., while in China, the top 20% only account for 40% [3][4]. Group 3: Service Consumption - The disparity in service consumption between China and the U.S. is significant, with the latter having a higher percentage of spending on services such as healthcare, legal, financial, and education [3][4]. - In the U.S., service consumption constitutes over 65% of total consumption, while in China, many services are state-run and do not cater to the wealthier population's needs [3][4]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The article suggests that the concentration of wealth leads to a lack of effective consumer spending, as extremely wealthy individuals tend to be frugal and do not significantly contribute to stimulating the economy [5][6]. - The ongoing wealth gap poses a challenge for economic policies aimed at boosting consumption, as the majority of the population lacks sufficient disposable income to drive demand [8].
本周热点:牛市
集思录· 2025-07-04 08:09
Group 1 - The article discusses the changing market landscape, indicating that there are now more options than just a bull market for investors [1] - It reflects on the past decade's investment dreams and the challenges faced in achieving significant returns [1] - The article highlights the importance of cash management strategies in the current economic environment [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need for investors to adapt to new market conditions and explore diverse investment opportunities [1] - It raises questions about specific companies, such as Zhangjiajie, and their financial performance, suggesting a deeper analysis is required [1] - The content encourages readers to engage with the community for insights on investment strategies and market trends [2]
年轻必须做的事情
集思录· 2025-07-04 08:09
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of early experiences in life, particularly in relation to travel and personal development, emphasizing that not all experiences need to be rushed or tied to age [1][2][3]. Group 1: Travel Perspectives - The article suggests that the significance of travel varies among different age groups, with some believing that experiences should be pursued early in life, while others argue that travel can be enjoyed at any age [1][3]. - It highlights that the essence of travel is not solely about visiting popular destinations but about the exposure to new experiences that can shape one's perspective and future [3][4]. - The notion that young people must travel to gain certain experiences is challenged, as the article posits that personal growth can occur at any stage of life [1][2]. Group 2: Personal Development - The article emphasizes the importance of early investment in personal development, such as education, career advancement, and relationship building, which can yield long-term benefits [2]. - It argues that experiences like learning and working should be prioritized over consumerism, as they contribute to a more substantial and meaningful life [2][13]. - The article also points out that the ability to enjoy life and pursue passions should not be constrained by age, advocating for a balanced approach to life experiences [6][15].