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美股一直涨,都变成信仰了?
集思录· 2025-07-15 13:33
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the overvaluation of the US stock market, particularly the Nasdaq index, in light of high corporate valuations and the increasing US national debt, while contrasting it with the structural issues in the Chinese stock market [1][10]. Group 1: US Stock Market Dynamics - The US stock market has consistently rebounded from short-term declines, with many companies having market capitalizations exceeding $4 trillion and high price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [1]. - The correlation between CEO compensation and stock prices aligns the interests of executives with those of shareholders, contributing to a long-term upward trend in the market [2][3]. - A significant portion of US corporate profits is returned to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks, which helps maintain stock prices despite high valuations [2][6]. Group 2: Comparison with Chinese Stock Market - The Chinese stock market suffers from a misalignment of interests between major shareholders and minority investors, leading to practices that exploit the company for personal gain [2][3]. - The lack of effective regulation in China allows major shareholders to extract value from companies, often resulting in significant losses for minority shareholders [3][10]. - The article suggests that the structural issues in the Chinese market, such as poor governance and lack of investor protection, hinder its competitiveness compared to the US market [13]. Group 3: Economic and Financial Considerations - The US economy is increasingly reliant on financial markets, with a hollowing out of the real economy as companies outsource production to maximize profits [8]. - The article highlights the importance of a stable political environment and respect for property rights in maintaining investor confidence in the US market [11]. - The ongoing inflation and the historical upward trend of global indices suggest that while the US market may appear overvalued, it has mechanisms in place to correct itself [9][12]. Group 4: Valuation Metrics - The article provides specific PE ratios for major US companies, indicating a wide range of valuations that reflect their global market reach and profitability [14]. - Comparatively, Chinese companies often exhibit lower valuations, raising questions about their growth potential and market competitiveness [14].
16日投资提示:恒锋信息实控人及一致行动人拟合计减持不超3%股份
集思录· 2025-07-15 13:33
Group 1 - The article discusses the strong redemption of Lende Convertible Bonds [1] - The shareholder Sichuan Capital Market Relief Development Fund plans to continue increasing its stake in Diou Home by investing between 40 million to 60 million yuan [1] - The actual controller and concerted parties of Hengfeng Information intend to reduce their holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [1] - Yongxi Convertible Bonds have been listed [1] - Huadian New Energy has new shares listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1]
15日投资提示:灵康转债提议下修
集思录· 2025-07-14 14:31
Group 1 - Lingkang Convertible Bond: The board proposed a downward adjustment [1] - Shanshi Convertible Bond: The downward adjustment is nearing the bottom [1] - Guoda Convertible Bond, Yong'an Convertible Bond, Beilu Convertible Bond, Feilu Convertible Bond: Strong redemption [1] Group 2 - Yuanshin Industrial: The actual controller's concerted actor plans to reduce holdings by no more than 1.53% of the company's shares [1] - Tongwei Co., Ltd.: Expected net loss of 4.9 billion to 5.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year [1] - Lutai A: Expected net profit of 330 million to 370 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 94.62% to 118.21% [1] Group 3 - Shunbo Alloy: Expected net profit of 150 million to 190 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 78.81% to 126.49% [1] - Quanfeng Automotive: Expected net loss of 185 million to 155 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [1] - Suli Co., Ltd.: Expected net profit of 72 million to 86 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1008% to 1223% [1] Group 4 - Longi Green Energy: Expected net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [1] - Linggang Co., Ltd.: Expected net loss of 577 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [1] - JA Solar Technology: Expected net loss of 2.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [1] - BluFan Medical: Expected net loss of 150 million to 100 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [1] - Shuangliang Energy: The company expects a net profit of -650 million to -500 million yuan for the first half of the year [1]
股民越赚钱,消费越低迷?
集思录· 2025-07-14 14:31
Group 1 - The article discusses the varying consumption behaviors of stock investors based on their earnings, highlighting that those who have made profits tend to spend more, while those who have not may be more frugal [5][10][11] - It emphasizes the psychological aspect of spending, where significant earnings can lead to impulsive purchases, contrasting with the more cautious spending habits of those with stable incomes [10][11] - The article suggests that the overall consumption in society is influenced by the wealth distribution among stock investors, with higher consumption from those with a greater marginal propensity to consume [8][9] Group 2 - The narrative includes anecdotes of individual investors, showcasing their modest lifestyles despite significant earnings, indicating a trend of prioritizing investment over consumption [1][3] - It points out that the shift in consumer behavior is not just about personal wealth but also reflects broader economic trends, where increased spending on premium products can drive company profits and worker wages [4][5] - The article argues that a lack of consumption can hinder economic growth, suggesting that consumer spending is essential for societal progress [4][5]
14日投资提示:美锦能源预计2025年半年度亏损7亿至4.8亿




集思录· 2025-07-13 14:10
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights various companies' shareholder actions, financial forecasts, and market activities, indicating potential investment opportunities and risks in the market [1][2]. Group 2 - Qingyuan Co., Ltd. plans to reduce its shareholding by no more than 1% of the company's total shares [1] - Jiamei Packaging also intends to collectively reduce its shareholding by no more than 1% [1] - ST Dongshi is publicly recruiting investors for restructuring [1] - Hongcheng Convertible Bond will not be forcibly redeemed [1] - Jintian Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 340 million to 400 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 176.66% to 225.48% [1] - Meijin Energy anticipates a loss of 700 million to 480 million for the first half of 2025 [1] - Zhonglu Convertible Bond and Kuitian Convertible Bond will not undergo adjustments [1] - Xizhen Convertible Bond has been listed [1] - Shanda Electric Power and Jiyuan Group are new stocks available for subscription on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges [1] - Southern Universal Data Center REIT (508060) and Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (180901) are available for subscription [1]
今年我是完全错过了大家说的牛市
集思录· 2025-07-13 14:10
大家都在讨论牛市,我却在股市上颗粒无收,难道我穿越了,伤心一分钟。 qgj8848 有幸经历过两次大牛市,07、15年,我的经验就是如果有牛市,就持仓不动,早晚会到,也 千万别想着高抛低吸,拿稳扶好。实在受不了、拿不住,就拿大盘指数,牛市大部分人都跑 不过指数,且掉头时也有时间跑。 其实,现在就拿证券ETF,牛市,证券迟早还要来一波。 另外到了牛市后期(指数涨幅较大后),少来论坛看消息,千万别被洗脑,变的是各种理 由,不变的是成交量。 e老实和尚 今年全A等权涨了20.51%,这意味着广大散户朋友随便买只股票平均收益都有20.51%。今 年是牛市无疑。不要试图预测市场,顺势而为,涨就跟随,将来跌了那是将来的事,目前不 必考虑。 这次长期逻辑变了, 以前上市套现,炒股挣钱之后都是把钱转出股市去买房,买车。 现在你在股市上套现后拿着钱能干什么? 买房?(呵呵)。买车?(国补不是提前消费了一 轮了吗),还是存银行?(拿1%的利息)。 鼎级外星人 以前你错过了几次牛市? 今年如果是你投资生涯第一次错过牛市,那不是你的错。不算遗憾。 某种程度上来说,甚至是一笔财富。 但如果这是你第二次,第三次,甚至第N次错过牛市, 那 ...
本周热点:可转债感觉目前已经处于高位了,大家后续怎么安排?
集思录· 2025-07-11 08:00
Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges in stimulating consumer spending, highlighting various economic factors that contribute to the current situation [1] - It emphasizes the impact of market conditions on consumer confidence and spending behavior, suggesting that external economic pressures are hindering growth [1] - The piece also touches on the historical context of market fluctuations, referencing past events that have shaped current consumer sentiment [1] Group 2 - The article mentions the importance of addressing unfair competition and internal competition within industries to foster a healthier economic environment [1] - It raises concerns about the current state of convertible bonds, indicating that they may be at a high point and prompting discussions on future investment strategies [1]
90%以上的县城房产未来是否会价值归零?
集思录· 2025-07-11 08:00
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing dynamics of population movement and economic conditions in China, particularly focusing on the decline of county-level cities and the implications for real estate investment [1][5]. Group 1: Population Movement - There has been a significant shift in population movement patterns, with individuals returning to their hometowns or lower-tier cities instead of moving to higher-tier cities, which was common in the past [2][3]. - The influx of people returning to lower-tier cities has created a temporary economic boost, but this is not sustainable as it relies on one-time wealth effects rather than ongoing income growth [4][6]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The real estate market in many county-level cities is facing challenges due to population decline and lack of job opportunities, leading to stagnant or declining property values [1][8]. - The article suggests that while some county-level cities may maintain stable prices, the overall trend indicates a decrease in investment attractiveness for real estate in these areas [7][8]. Group 3: Economic Conditions - The article posits that the economic downturn driven by the real estate sector is nearing its end, and a shift towards new economic growth is expected, although this may not immediately benefit lower-tier cities [5][6]. - The long-term trend suggests that population density and economic efficiency will continue to favor higher-tier cities, leading to a potential resurgence in their economic activity [6].
现在买入银行是49年加入国军吗?
集思录· 2025-07-10 14:01
现在买入银行是49年加入国军吗? Beter 顶多是48年加入国军,离49年还有一年呢。 gobidaozhao 只有1个银行品种,可以大胆买、放心买、满仓买,不需要考虑48、49、50年: 浦发转债!!! lichang1019 上涨是价值回归赶紧买,下跌是分红提高赶紧买,银行赢麻了。 周期为王 哥,我买了两三个月,大清就亡了? 最多亏2.13% 特别提醒:据此操作、输赢责任自负!!! myloue 买银行如果用价值投资和吃股息想法,一定会套个五六年。这几年的涨幅看起来也就一倍, 但是这算其他股票,相当于五六倍。其他明牌股票涨五六倍你敢买吗。 kkqq999 这些问题,价值派是给不了答案的,就算套了,他们也会说:我是买来吃息的,不关心涨 跌,就算跌三五年,我也无所谓。 所以,如果你买入银行股是希望靠上涨赚钱的,应该问技术派。 地理科代表 @白石子999 单从银行本身看,前期涨的太多了,回调正常。但我想的是,未来稳定币出来以 后,会不会冲击或者取代银行的地位? 巴菲特开始清仓美国银行股了。 美国的这个稳定币法案严重利空金融股(银行,支付公司) pppppp 过几周确定破位后,就是国军了; 趋势下行,需要较大的 ...
11日投资提示:兴森科技控股股东拟减持不超1.5%股份
集思录· 2025-07-10 14:01
特别提示 本文不构成任何投资建议,仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损,本公众号 及作者概不承担任何责任。 集思录(www.jisilu.cn)是一个以数据为本的投资理财社区,专注于新股、可转债、债券、封闭 基金等数据服务。我们的理念是在保证本金安全的前提下,使资产获得稳健增长。 快捷查询: 佳力转债:下修到底 恒辉转债:强赎 兴森科技:控股股东拟减持不超1.5%公司股份 起帆转债,李子转债,通22转债:不下修 关注集思录微信 搜索公众号"jisilu8"添加我们 ...