经济观察报
Search documents
“十万亿”山东掀起了绿色能源变革
经济观察报· 2026-02-02 05:53
Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province has made significant strides in transitioning to green energy, with non-fossil energy power generation capacity reaching 139 million kilowatts by 2025, increasing its share from 31% to 54%, surpassing coal power for the first time [2][3]. Group 1: Energy Transition Achievements - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Shandong's energy consumption intensity decreased by 22%, and carbon emission intensity fell by 20.5% [2][3]. - The proportion of days with good air quality reached 77.8%, and Shandong has consistently received high marks in central pollution prevention assessments [2][3]. - The province has closed 10.9427 million kilowatts of small coal-fired power units, with over 87% of operational coal power units being large-scale [6][5]. Group 2: Industrial Transformation - Shandong's industrial focus has shifted from heavy industries like steel and petrochemicals, which heavily relied on coal, to cleaner energy sources [5][6]. - The province has implemented measures to reduce carbon emissions in high-energy-consuming industries, including relocating steel production to coastal areas and closing high-energy-consuming production capacities [5][6]. - The integration of smaller refineries and the establishment of world-class refining and chemical projects have improved energy efficiency and product value [6] . Group 3: Green Energy Development - Shandong has actively expanded external green electricity supply channels and coordinated the construction of new energy stations within the province [10][11]. - The "External Electricity into Shandong" strategy has successfully delivered over 1 trillion kilowatt-hours of external power to the province over the past 20 years [10][11]. - By 2025, Shandong's distributed photovoltaic projects have become a major force in new energy station construction, with a total installed capacity of over 115 million kilowatts, accounting for 48.3% of total power generation capacity [11][12]. Group 4: Policy and Market Innovations - Shandong has pioneered several market reforms in the electricity sector, including the introduction of capacity compensation systems and retail price caps to stabilize electricity prices [14][15]. - The province is also a leader in the development of an electricity spot market, which enhances resource allocation and price signals [13][14]. - New energy mechanism price bidding results have indicated a shift towards wind power and energy storage development, with significant investments expected in these areas [15][16]. Group 5: Future Goals and Initiatives - The Shandong government aims to establish 20 provincial-level zero-carbon parks and explore integrated models for energy sources, networks, loads, and storage [18][19]. - The zero-carbon parks are designed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions through various technological and management measures, promoting sustainable development [19][20]. - The province plans to continue optimizing its energy structure by advancing nuclear power and large-scale clean coal projects [16][20].
【首席观察】沃什提名冲击波 黄金流动性“休克”
经济观察报· 2026-02-01 12:56
"反应函数" (央行的出牌规则)让市场不敢 押注 ;"保证 金"让杠杆没法押注。两者叠加,价格就会用"断层"说话。 作者:欧阳晓红 封图:图虫创意 这一夜,成也流动性,败也流动性。 2026年1月30日,COMEX黄金期货收盘定格在 4907.5美元/盎司,下跌8.35%,盘中最大跌幅 逾12%。 罕见的单日大幅波动,不仅冲销了黄金的连日涨幅,甚至吞没了此前数月的涨势。这像一出荒诞 剧:昨天还是"避险资产",今天却成了"风险源头",主角仍是黄金。 投资者可以从两个链条来拆解这次暴跌。一是宏观链条:美联储主席提名与政策风格变化→市场对 未来路径的"把握感"下降→分歧扩大、波动上升;二是微观链条:波动上升→交易所提高保证金 以保系统安全→杠杆被迫收缩→价格更容易走极端。 "反应函数" (央行的出牌规则)让市场不敢押注;"保证金"让杠杆没法押注。两者叠加,价格就 会用"断层"说话。 黑天鹅起飞前 投资者可能想不到,1月26日—1月30日这一周,全球金融市场原本还在用"黄金重塑秩序与制 度"的剧本演戏,直到周五。 美联储议息会议前后,市场情绪仍有惯性。1月28日,美联储将联邦基金利率维持在3.50%— 3.75%不变 ...
“多杀多”引发惨剧 华尔街基金经理讲述黄金白银史诗级大跌日经历
经济观察报· 2026-02-01 08:06
2026年1月30日晚,张刚目不转睛地盯着电脑上的COMEX黄金、白银期货报价实时走势,即便 是上厕所也不敢耽搁时间。 张刚是美国华尔街一家资产规模逾2亿美元的对冲基金的基金经理,管理着一只6000万美元的贵 金属投资基金,主要投向黄金ETF(交易型开放式指数基金)、COMEX黄金和白银期货以及期权 等衍生品。纽约商品交易所推出的COMEX黄金、白银期货是国际黄金、白银价格的重要参考。 这一晚,COMEX黄金、白银期货价格遭遇史诗级大跌。截至1月31日凌晨收盘时,COMEX黄金 期货主力合约报价从5410美元/盎司跌至4907美元/盎司,盘中最大跌幅逾12%,创下近40年以 来最大单日跌幅;COMEX白银期货主力合约报价从115.89美元/盎司跌至85.25美元/盎司,盘 中最大跌幅达到35.30%,创下1980年年代以来最大单日跌幅。 在大量资本涌入贵金属市场推高黄金、白银价格迭创新高后, 整个贵金属投资市场充满极度拥挤的买涨头寸、创纪录的看涨 期权购买量与极端的投资杠杆倍数,形成泡沫化投资氛围,任 何的风吹草动,都会引发资本争相"多杀多",酿成黄金、白银 价格遭遇超预期的大幅回调。 作者:陈植 封图:图虫 ...
十万亿大省迈上新征程
经济观察报· 2026-02-01 04:30
走在前、挑大梁,10万亿之上的山东何以能?答案写在脚下, 也写在历史中。 作者:种昂 封图:网络图片 卫星从这里发射上天。烟台东方航天港累计成功发射137颗卫星,并聚集了30多家企业。一条集海上发射、火箭研发、卫星星座建设、卫星研制、数 据应用等的航天产业链初具雏形。 "深海一号"在这里下海。该船续航力超过14000海里,其搭载的潜水器"蛟龙号"具备7000米级下潜能力,这也是中国载人深潜的纪录。 海量新能源车在这里下线。2025年,山东新能源汽车产量超过110万辆,平均每天3000多辆下线,销往全国各地乃至世界市场;锂电池总产量达到 225GWh(吉瓦时),占全国总产量的15.2%。山东成为新能源汽车产业的聚集地。 传统产业在这里蜕变出全新的技术、产能和形态。身处纺织业,即发集团开始从虾蟹壳中提炼纤维,织物染色无须用水;潍柴集团以科技赋能内燃机产 业,大缸径发动机应用于百万卡超算中心备电发电;青岛港自动化码头成为中国第一个、全球领先的全自动化集装箱码头…… 放眼齐鲁大地,"十五五"开局之年,扑面而来的是一个不一样的山东。 今天的山东,是中国北方经济压舱石。北方每5元的产出就有1元是山东提供的;"十四五"开局 ...
车市“价格战”熄火,“金融战”再起?
经济观察报· 2026-02-01 04:30
Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is shifting from direct price competition to financial incentives as a means to stimulate consumer demand, raising questions about the sustainability and risks associated with this strategy [2][5]. Group 1: Financial Promotions - Tesla initiated a financial promotion in early January 2026, offering a limited-time insurance subsidy and low-interest financing options for its Model 3, with a minimum down payment of 79,900 yuan and monthly payments as low as 1,918 yuan for a 7-year term [3]. - Following Tesla, other companies like Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Lantu launched similar 7-year low-interest financing plans, with down payments starting as low as 32,500 yuan and monthly payments varying across models [4]. - The trend of "7-year low-interest" financing has become a standard offering among major automakers, appealing particularly to younger consumers seeking flexible payment options [5]. Group 2: Market Context - The automotive market faced significant challenges at the beginning of 2026, with retail sales of passenger vehicles dropping by 28% year-on-year and 37% month-on-month during the first 18 days of January [8]. - The impending reduction of tax incentives for electric vehicles starting January 1, 2026, is expected to increase consumer costs, prompting automakers to adopt financial promotions to maintain sales [9]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Recent policies from financial regulators have allowed for extended loan terms up to 7 years for consumer financing, facilitating the adoption of low-interest loans in the automotive sector [10]. - The government has also introduced fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans, which include automotive purchases, effectively reducing the cost of financing for consumers [10]. Group 4: Financing Leasing Controversies - Many automakers are incorporating financing leasing services into their promotional strategies, which can create confusion among consumers regarding ownership and payment structures [12]. - The financing leasing model, while innovative, has faced criticism for its potential to mislead consumers about the nature of their agreements, leading to disputes and legal challenges [13]. - The automotive industry is urged to clarify the terms of financing leasing agreements to protect both consumer interests and brand reputation [13].
经观社论|我们要如何拥抱AI
经济观察报· 2026-02-01 04:30
如何拥抱AI的终极答案,并不在于技术本身,而必须回归到 人。那些"人之为人"的特质——好奇心、想象力、情感联结以 及批判性思维,才是我们在人工智能时代更需坚守与培育的。 作者:言咏 封图:图虫创意 阿里巴巴创始人马云近日表示,在人工智能时代,不要再犹豫用不用AI,而是要想"怎么教孩子用 好AI"。他是在马云公益基金会活动中回应乡村教师的困惑时做出这一表述的。他认为,这为教育 提供了回归本源的机会,未来的教育不是让孩子背得更多,记得更多,而是让他们想得更有趣,想 得更有创意,想得更加独特。 另一边,医生张文宏则对AI进入核心医疗环节持保留态度。他在香港高山书院十周年论坛上明确反 对将AI直接接入病历系统,理由是这会让年轻医生绕过必要的诊疗思维训练,削弱其独立鉴别AI错 误的能力。 表面上看,两位公众人物对AI应用的观点有所分歧,一个积极拥抱,一个态度审慎。然而,若将AI 视为一个复杂的"多面体",便能发现他们所言并不矛盾,而是触及了AI的不同剖面。马云强调的 是AI赋能的一面,将人类从机械工作中释放出来,把精力更多用于创造;张文宏并不拒绝AI,他只 是担忧,人类在利用其工作时,可能会失去必要的思维锤炼,从而丧失 ...
遭遇“黑色星期五”之后:白银史上第三轮大牛市结束了吗?
经济观察报· 2026-01-31 14:50
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the silver market, particularly the significant price drop following a speculative surge, drawing parallels to historical events like the Hunt brothers' squeeze in 1980 and the quantitative easing speculation in 2011, suggesting that the current market may be facing a similar fate due to regulatory interventions and lack of fundamental support [1][18]. Market Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices began in November 2025, with the Shanghai silver main contract rising from 11,441 yuan/kg to a peak of 32,382 yuan/kg by January 30, 2026, marking a 183% increase, while the COMEX silver contract saw a 152% rise during the same period [6]. - The speculative frenzy led to significant interest in silver-related stocks, with companies like Hunan Silver and Silver Nonferrous experiencing maximum gains of 273% and 233%, respectively, and the Guotou Silver LOF fund achieving a peak increase of 311.21% [6]. Regulatory Response - In response to the market volatility, the Shanghai Futures Exchange raised the margin requirements for silver futures contracts, which contributed to a sharp decline in prices, with the Shanghai silver main contract dropping 17% to 24,832 yuan/kg shortly after the regulatory changes [2][10]. - The regulatory measures included targeted actions against investors engaging in abnormal trading behaviors, indicating a strong stance to maintain market order and prevent excessive speculation [9]. Investor Behavior - Investors, like Mr. Liu, initially profited from the silver surge but faced significant losses during the subsequent crash, highlighting the risks associated with speculative trading in volatile markets [4][12]. - The article notes that the current market sentiment is characterized by a blind rush into silver investments, with some investors purchasing silver-related assets without a clear understanding of the underlying fundamentals [8]. Historical Context - The article draws comparisons between the current silver market and past speculative bubbles, emphasizing that both the Hunt brothers' event and the 2011 surge ended with regulatory interventions leading to sharp declines in prices [16][18]. - Historical data shows that the current bull market in silver, which began in July 2022, has seen prices rise approximately 600% over three and a half years, echoing patterns seen in previous market cycles [13][17]. Future Outlook - Analysts express cautious optimism about silver's future, noting that while the industrial demand for silver remains strong, the speculative nature of the current market could lead to significant price corrections if macroeconomic conditions shift [19][20]. - The interplay between silver's industrial applications and its financial attributes will be crucial in determining future price movements, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and regulatory developments [19][20].
从单打独斗到多方协同,《全民阅读促进条例》能否成为行业“强心针”?
经济观察报· 2026-01-31 11:00
这部以"全民阅读"命名的行政法规,自国务院审议通过之日 起,便在出版与阅读领域反响强烈。它被寄予厚望——在纸质 阅读式微、注意力碎片化、出版业深度调整的时代背景下,成 为一剂强心针,系统性地推动书香社会建设。 作者:李唐 封图:东方IC 书店会逆势重光吗? 这是近期萦绕在出版业界的一个共同的疑问。在中信出版集团总经理段甲强的眼里,书店的春天, 似乎已经脚步临近了。 最近,有不少地方政府和大型央企,都向中信出版集团抛来了橄榄枝,邀请他们洽谈合作,利用其 城市休闲空间,开办大型书店。而中信出版集团的一家新书店,也即将开业,这似乎为久已溃退的 书店业,带来了一抹亮色。 这个亮色,是《全民阅读促进条例》(下称《条例》)带来的,《条例》将于2026年2月1日正式 施行。这部以"全民阅读"命名的行政法规,自国务院审议通过之日起,便在出版与阅读领域反响 强烈。它被寄予厚望——在纸质阅读式微、注意力碎片化、出版业深度调整的时代背景下,成为一 剂强心针,系统性地推动书香社会建设。 《全民阅读促进条例》旨在由政府主导,系统性推动全民阅读,明确各级政府在阅读设施建设、资 源供给等方面的职责;鼓励社会力量积极参与,开展各类阅读活动以 ...
近60万亿定存到期,利息收入保卫战打响
经济观察报· 2026-01-31 06:17
"现在存款利息太低了。"她决定不再全部续存。近期,张晴前往多家银行网点咨询能否买到年化 收益率3%、具备"保本"属性的固收类理财产品。 "3%是我的底线。收益率低于3%,我不会考虑购买相关理财产品。"张晴说。 像张晴这样为到期定存寻找可靠去处的储户还有很多。国信证券基于六大行2025年中报数据估 计,2026年到期的定期存款规模约为57万亿元,且主要到期时段集中在年初。 当前金融市场普遍关注2026年大量到期定期存款的流向。在3 年期定期存款利率走低至1.25%,甚至低于回购利率的历史罕 见背景下,资金寻找替代投向的需求强烈,预计2026年大概 率会出现定期存款向理财转化的趋势。 作者:陈植 封图:图虫创意 2026年2月初,张晴有一笔40万元的3年期存款到期。 利率下行引发存款持续流失,部分中小银行稳健运营承压。在一家西部地区农商行任零售业务部主 管的段涛感慨地说:"对居民而言,这或许是一场存款利息收入保卫战;但对我们而言,这也是一 场关乎中小银行生死的大考验。" 家庭收支盘算 近期,张晴跑了多家上海地区的银行网点,发现3年期存款的最高利率只有1.8%。而3年前,同期 限存款利率为3.1%。 张晴在一家民营 ...
拒绝上游指导价之后,新氧低价从何而来
经济观察报· 2026-01-31 04:01
Core Viewpoint - The medical beauty industry is experiencing a shift from supply scarcity to abundance, allowing institutions to negotiate better prices and providing more options for consumers [2][3][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - New Oxygen's "Miracle Youth" project has seen continuous sales growth for three months since its launch, despite pricing disputes with upstream suppliers [2]. - The price of "Miracle Youth" products is significantly lower than the manufacturer's suggested retail price, with some products priced at 60% less than the official price [2][5]. - The increase in the number of products available in the market has provided institutions with more choices, reducing reliance on single suppliers [3][9]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The market for "Miracle Youth" products, specifically the PLLA facial filler, has seen multiple companies approved for production, increasing competition [5]. - New Oxygen's pricing strategy has led to conflicts with suppliers, who are concerned about the disruption of established pricing structures [6]. - The number of approved products in the PLLA category is expected to grow, with 11 products already approved and nearly 20 more in the pipeline [9]. Group 3: Business Strategy - New Oxygen aims to leverage its scale by expanding its number of clinics and increasing treatment volumes, which enhances its negotiating power with suppliers [6][7]. - The company plans to open at least 35 new clinics by 2026, with a target of increasing the number of doctors and nursing staff significantly [7]. - Despite ongoing losses due to expansion, New Oxygen's strategy focuses on achieving profitability by optimizing operations and offering a wider range of products at different price points [11].