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经观社论|AI是一场不可避免的交互革命
经济观察报· 2025-12-13 04:40
Core Viewpoint - The emergence of AI smartphones is expected to disrupt the traditional app ecosystem, potentially leading to a new competitive landscape among hardware manufacturers, with 2026 projected as the year of AI smartphones [1][4]. Group 1: AI Smartphone Launch and Features - ByteDance's AI tool Doubao and ZTE launched the Doubao smartphone on December 1, 2025, featuring AI-driven cross-application automation, with the first batch of 30,000 units selling out instantly [2]. - The Doubao smartphone can perform tasks like comparing prices and placing orders based on voice commands, effectively simulating human interactions with the device [2]. Group 2: Impact on Traditional Apps and Platforms - The introduction of AI smartphones poses a significant threat to traditional internet giants, as it allows AI to bypass app entry points, potentially leading to a loss of advertising revenue and user data for these platforms [3]. - If AI smartphones become widespread, traditional apps may lose their fundamental purpose, as users will rely on AI to fulfill their needs without needing to interact with individual applications [3]. Group 3: Future of AI and Hardware - The evolution of AI is seen as an inevitable outcome, with operational AI being more impactful than generative AI in the current app-centric environment [4]. - The rise of AI smartphones may accelerate the evolution of hardware, potentially leading to the replacement of smartphones with other forms of devices [4].
揭秘日利率1%资金盘陷阱:超出常识的收益诱惑
经济观察报· 2025-12-13 04:40
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing prevalence of fraudulent financial schemes, particularly focusing on the pyramid scheme operated by Yuzhi Financial, which promises high returns and employs aggressive recruitment tactics to expand its investor base [2][6][25]. Summary by Sections Fraudulent Operations - Yuzhi Financial presents itself as a virtual currency trading platform, claiming a cumulative return of up to 370.6% over thirty days, enticing investors with high returns while requiring them to recruit others to earn commissions [2][6]. - The scheme requires investors to pay a "self-certification deposit" of 20% of their total account balance to withdraw earnings, with withdrawal fees increasing from 10% to 30% [2][14]. - The company claims to have 3 million members, suggesting a potential scale of over 20 billion yuan, although actual figures are difficult to verify due to possible false advertising [2][3]. Regulatory Warnings - The Guangdong provincial government issued a warning about Yuzhi Financial, stating that it operates without the necessary licenses and that its app, HSEX, is unauthorized [3][4]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has flagged Yuzhi Financial and its associated apps as suspicious, confirming multiple complaints regarding illegal financing activities [14][17]. Investor Experiences - Investors like Wang Qin have reported being unable to withdraw funds, realizing too late that they were part of a scam designed to extract more money from them [9][16]. - The scheme's structure relies heavily on continuous recruitment, with participants needing to bring in new investors to recoup their initial investments [12][30]. Characteristics of the Scheme - The operation is characterized by a lack of tangible projects, with promises of high monthly returns that attract new investors while paying older ones with their own funds [25][36]. - The article notes that these schemes often utilize social media and community networks to spread, making them difficult to regulate and monitor [27][36]. Broader Implications - The rise of such schemes is linked to the increasing use of virtual currencies and the lack of understanding among the public regarding investment risks [29][37]. - Legal experts emphasize the need for both regulatory action and public awareness to combat the allure of high-return investments that often lead to financial loss [37].
“很不平凡的一年”,一次有所不同的中央经济工作会议
经济观察报· 2025-12-12 14:45
Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of addressing specific issues and market participants' sentiments alongside economic growth, indicating a shift in policy focus towards improving overall economic conditions [1][20]. Summary by Sections Economic Policy Adjustments - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference introduced a new policy framework that integrates growth, employment, and price stability as key objectives, reflecting a significant shift in economic policy thinking since the implementation of the "924" new policy [3][6]. - The 2025 conference further deepened this understanding, highlighting the need to balance effective markets with proactive government intervention, supply and demand, and the cultivation of new and old economic drivers [7][8]. Economic Challenges and Insights - The conference acknowledged persistent challenges in China's economic development, including a mismatch between strong supply and weak demand, and emphasized the need for adjustments in both supply and demand sides to enhance economic performance [8][10]. - Experts noted that the government's recognition of these issues indicates a clear understanding of the current economic landscape and the difficulties faced [9]. Economic Growth Targets - The 2026 economic growth target is set to be "positive and pragmatic," focusing on quality and effectiveness rather than solely on growth quantity, with a potential GDP growth rate of 4.5% to 5% [12][13]. - The conference reiterated the importance of maintaining a balance between reform and policy support, indicating that economic policies will not pursue aggressive stimulus measures but will instead focus on sustainable growth [14][16]. Reform Initiatives - Key reform initiatives for 2026 include the construction of a unified market, state-owned enterprise reform, and improvements in the fiscal and taxation systems, aimed at enhancing economic efficiency and addressing local government financial challenges [15][17]. - The conference highlighted the need for a coordinated approach between macroeconomic policies and reforms, suggesting that optimizing existing fiscal and financial structures could unlock significant economic potential [17][18]. Societal Impact - The conference stressed the importance of enhancing the sense of gain for residents and businesses, with policies aimed at improving income distribution, employment, and education resources [19][20]. - Specific measures include the development of urban and rural income increase plans and adjustments to educational resource allocation to alleviate societal pressures [19].
当医院来了一位“猫医生”
经济观察报· 2025-12-12 14:14
"它(猫)提供的是无条件的爱,"张敬悬说。他认为,当孩子 情绪低落时,动物的主动靠近、不带评判的陪伴,所给予的真 诚与包容,有时连至亲与专业治疗师都难以完全复制的,"这 是一种生命对生命的关注"。 作者:郑明珠 封图:受访者供图 在济南智善心理医院(下称"智善心理"),"医疗专家团"介绍栏的首位是一张穿着白大褂的狸花 猫照片。这只名为"方便袋"的猫,被称作"方医生",头衔是动物辅助治疗师、情绪急救师、社交 破冰师和金牌陪伴师。院长、资深咨询师的介绍排在其后。 "方医生" 受访者供图 早上九点,医院开门,"方医生"也开始工作。它的诊室有100多平方米。 这天,15岁的张宁(化名)在父母陪同下来到智善心理。心理咨询师冯杰与他交谈,话题包括游 戏、动漫和宠物。提起宠物时,一直低着头的张宁短暂地抬了一下眼。母亲说,张宁喜欢猫狗,但 曾被流浪猫抓伤,之后便有些害怕。在前期的单独沟通中,张宁的妈妈提到,孩子厌学情绪明显、 与人沟通存在障碍。 十多分钟的对话里,张宁大多时间低着头,话语很少,不时摆弄手指、揉搓衣角。 于是,冯杰提议去看看医院的环境,顺便见见"方医生"。在诊室的玻璃门外,张宁停下了脚 步。"方医生"注意到了玻 ...
体育运动 + 时光续能 = 健康 “葆” 款——完美时光葆体育营销洞察报告
经济观察报· 2025-12-12 13:54
完美时光葆 创新打造的"体育营销新范式" 成功斩获 2024-2025 年度营响大会 "跨界营销 ―― 杰出品牌跨界" 奖 成为健康与体育跨界领域的标杆案例 l 品 | | 品 | and Research and Children and Children and Children 量经济的 024-2025年度 该案例究竟有何过人之处? 请看大屏幕 上 切成年度前2 = TEFFIC II 完美时光傑体育营销洞察报告 该案例以精准的趋势洞察为起点 "体育明星+健康产品" 的 跨界策略兼具创新性与适配性 明星背书与权威资源联动 快速建立品牌信号 线上线 网闭环渠道 与用户共创模式形成高效增长飞轮 既实现了品牌声量与市场群量的观量突破 又深度绑定"拼搏、活力、信匪"的 核心情感价值。是契合时代理势 東貝战略高度与湖荷落地值的 优质营销案例 金牌有主动 - THIN NEW P l U-CONG rig a Nilan N res 光像图体式对 f the xia Har a 2 4 4 4 4 4 New York 0 - 10 - 11 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - Willi ...
大疆与影石的供应链之战
经济观察报· 2025-12-12 13:54
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive tension between two companies, DJI and Insta360, highlighting the supply chain exclusivity and market strategies that have emerged as a result of their rivalry [2][5][30]. Supply Chain Exclusivity - Insta360's founder revealed that several core suppliers have faced pressure to not collaborate with Insta360, indicating a trend of exclusivity in the supply chain where suppliers must choose between working with DJI or Insta360 [2][8]. - The exclusivity has escalated, with suppliers being explicitly instructed to cease any cooperation with Insta360, impacting their ability to source critical components [9][10]. - The primary area affected by this exclusivity is the optical lens module sector, where suppliers are increasingly pressured to align with DJI due to its dominant market position [11][17]. Sales Channel Conflicts - The competition has extended to sales channels, with reports of physical store signs for Insta360 being forcibly removed due to pressure from DJI's distributors [4][19]. - A specific incident involved a store owner who invested significantly in renovations only to be informed of a ban on selling Insta360 products due to a "hidden directive" from DJI [24][25]. - The article notes that DJI has been actively working to secure exclusive sales agreements with retailers, limiting the presence of competing brands like Insta360 in key retail spaces [26][27]. Supplier Concerns - Suppliers are caught in a dilemma, as many rely heavily on DJI for revenue, with some reporting that losing DJI as a client could lead to significant revenue declines [14][15]. - The article highlights that while some suppliers are willing to support Insta360, they are cautious due to the potential financial repercussions of losing DJI's business [12][13]. - The competitive landscape is further complicated by the fact that many suppliers do not face capacity constraints, making the choice between DJI and Insta360 a strategic rather than a necessity-driven decision [15]. Market Dynamics and Responses - Insta360 has been proactive in developing alternative supply chain strategies to mitigate the impact of exclusivity, including diversifying its supplier base and fostering relationships with willing partners [30]. - The article suggests that the ongoing competition may ultimately drive innovation and growth within the industry, as companies adapt to the challenges posed by exclusivity [30][31]. - The legal implications of such exclusivity practices are also discussed, with experts weighing in on the potential antitrust concerns surrounding DJI's market behavior [31].
历经半年,硅料收储计划迈出关键一步
经济观察报· 2025-12-12 13:54
按照设想,未来硅料业内将由行业龙头企业牵头,通过"直接 出资+债务"的模式,成立一家由专业管理人员运营的公司。该 公司将出面收购硅料产能,并将绝大部分收购的产能关停,以 实现行业供需平衡。 作者: 潘俊田 封图:图虫创意 光伏行业"反内卷"终于有实质性动作。 北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司于12月9日在北京市朝阳区市场监督管理局完成登记,注册资本30亿元,公 司类型为有限责任公司(外商投资企业与内资合资),法定代表人为侯一聪,经营范围为一般项目:技术 服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广、企业管理咨询。 有企业表示,该公司的成立是为行业内主要企业探索光伏行业内潜在战略合作机会,如技术升级、市场拓 展、产能与成本优化等。对于其是否为"硅料收储平台公司",暂无相关方明确表态,但市场普遍认为这家 公司就是此前传闻的"硅料收储平台公司"。 "硅料收储平台公司"的成立消息,最早于今年5月中旬在市场上传播。5月13日,市场传言称通威股份、协 鑫科技、大全能源、新特能源、东方希望和亚洲硅业6家企业,拟通过成立基金的方式收购其余企业硅料产 能,进而实现行业产能出清。 综合当时相关报道,这6家硅料企业将牵头成立 ...
25km/h的电动自行车,能否让我们习惯“慢下来”?
经济观察报· 2025-12-12 13:54
电动自行车"新国标"的指向,是通过技术约束,解决电动自行车长期存在的超速、非法改装、充电易引发 火灾等安全隐患,同时明确其"非机动车"属性,通过车速、重量、功率等技术约束,将其牢牢规范在非机 动车道上行驶。 我们可以强制让电动自行车"慢下来",却并不能一劳永逸地解 围绕电动自行车"新国标"的争议,会对社会福祉带来什么样的增益? 12月1日,新版强制性国家标准《电动自行车安全技术规范》(下称"新国标")正式实施,所有在售电动自 行车必须符合"新国标"。这意味着旧国标车型彻底退出销售舞台,新标准对车速、重量、塑料占比、电池 安全等提出了更严的要求。 其中最受关注的是对速度的限制。"新国标"明确规定电动自行车最高设计时速不得超过25公里,在非机动 车道行驶时不得超过15公里。限速新规引发了消费者强烈的吐槽。 中国已经是电动自行车生产销售大国。据中国自行车协会统计:2024年,中国自行车全行业总产量为 9953.7万辆,接近1亿辆。截至今年9月,中国电动自行车社会保有量约3.8亿辆,平均每4个人就拥有一辆 电动自行车。庞大的保有量,让我们随处可见电动自行车的身影。 与其保有量同步呈现的另一个情况是:因电动自行车肇事导 ...
显示面板的2025:LCD控产保价,OLED千亿对决开场
经济观察报· 2025-12-12 09:50
Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Chinese panel companies have transitioned from mere scale expansion to a phase where technology defines their business models, particularly in the OLED sector, while maintaining a controlled production strategy in the mature LCD market [1][19]. LCD Market Dynamics - The LCD market has shifted from a "full production, full sales" model to an "on-demand production" strategy, where manufacturers adjust production based on actual orders to stabilize prices [6][7]. - Major panel manufacturers have agreed to control production to maintain profitability, leading to a reduction in the operating rate of LCD production lines to below 80% in October 2025 [2][3]. - The market concentration has increased, giving leading companies stronger bargaining power, which has allowed them to implement production control strategies effectively [7][8]. Financial Performance - The financial results reflect the success of the new production strategy, with companies like BOE and TCL reporting significant profit increases in their third-quarter results, with net profits growing by 39.03% and 53.5% respectively [8][9]. OLED Market Strategies - In the OLED sector, leading companies are pursuing different technological paths, with BOE investing 630 billion RMB in a mainstream "evaporation" process, while TCL is adopting a lower-cost "printing" method with an investment of only 295 billion RMB [11][12]. - Visionox is exploring a unique approach using its proprietary ViP technology, which aims to replace traditional masking techniques with semiconductor-like processes [14][15]. - The competition in the OLED market is intensifying as companies aim to capture the growing demand for OLED panels in IT devices, with projections indicating a compound annual growth rate of 33% for OLED in laptops by 2030 [17]. Future Outlook - The race for the 8.6-generation OLED production lines is critical as the smartphone market matures, with companies like BOE and TCL setting ambitious timelines for mass production by 2026 and 2027 respectively [17][18]. - Despite not investing in new OLED lines, Tianma Microelectronics is focusing on enhancing its existing LCD capabilities, particularly in the automotive display sector, which is expected to grow significantly [19].
中央经济工作会议定调:2026年,居民如何“涨工资”?
经济观察报· 2025-12-12 06:51
Core Viewpoint - The growth of residents' current and expected income is a key driver for boosting consumption, which has been a long-standing call from the market [1][4]. Economic Policy and Income Growth - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy [2]. - The conference identified eight key tasks for economic work in 2026, including the implementation of special actions to boost consumption and the formulation of plans to increase urban and rural residents' income [2][4]. - From 2020 to 2022, the growth rate of per capita disposable income in China showed significant fluctuations, with rates of 2.1%, 8.1%, and 2.9% respectively, while projections for 2023, 2024, and the first three quarters of 2025 are 6.1%, 5.1%, and 5.2% [2]. - The meeting highlighted ongoing challenges in China's economic development, including external environmental changes and domestic supply-demand imbalances [2]. Employment and Income Distribution - Employment is a critical factor for income growth, with the conference proposing actions to stabilize and expand employment for key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers [4][5]. - The focus on increasing income includes measures to raise the minimum wage, with several regions planning to increase their minimum wage standards in 2025 [4]. - The conference's emphasis on a systematic approach to income growth suggests potential reforms in income distribution systems, personal income tax adjustments, and increased social security spending [4][6]. Social Security and Investment in Human Capital - Enhancing social security levels is expected to increase disposable income for urban and rural residents, with a notable increase in the basic pension standard from 55 yuan to 123 yuan per month [6]. - Future investment strategies are expected to shift towards "investing in people," focusing on education, employment, healthcare, and social security to drive high-quality economic development [7]. Price Stability and Economic Challenges - The persistent low levels of CPI and negative PPI growth are linked to supply-demand imbalances in the economy, with the conference recognizing the need for monetary policy to address these issues [9][10]. - The conference suggested that achieving reasonable price recovery may require coordinated monetary policy actions, including potential interest rate cuts [11][12].