国泰海通证券研究
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国泰海通|机械:AI、核聚变迎催化,风电景气持续向好
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-09-28 12:34
Group 1: AI Equipment - Nvidia announced an investment plan of up to $100 billion in OpenAI, which will utilize Nvidia systems to build and deploy at least 10GW of AI data centers for training and running next-generation models, equivalent to 4-5 million GPUs, double the shipment volume of the previous year [1] - Alibaba officially announced a collaboration with Nvidia on Physical AI, covering various aspects including data synthesis, model training, environmental simulation reinforcement learning, and model validation testing, accelerating the construction of AI infrastructure and related equipment investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Nuclear Fusion - China Fusion Company made its first public appearance, aiming to build a high-temperature superconducting fusion device, "China Circulation No. 4," in Shanghai, targeting commercial fusion energy by 2050 [2] - The new fusion experimental device will validate the high-temperature superconducting magnets developed in Shanghai, with the industry expected to see a new breakthrough driven by advancements in superconducting and AI technologies [2] Group 3: Wind Power Equipment - From January to August, the newly installed wind power capacity in China reached 57.84GW, an increase of 24.24GW year-on-year [2] - According to Wood Mackenzie, the global wind power capacity is expected to reach a record high of 170GW in 2025, with an average annual increase exceeding 170GW over the next five years, peaking at 200GW by 2034 [2]
国泰海通|传媒:9月国产游戏版号共发放145款,优质内容供给有望持续释放
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-09-28 12:34
Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry is expected to perform well in the third quarter due to the release of quality content, with a positive long-term outlook for the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The media index increased by 0.63%, ranking 5th among 31 industries, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (up 1.07%) and the ChiNext index (up 1.96%) [2]. - The total number of domestic game licenses issued this year has reached 1,195, significantly surpassing the 959 licenses issued during the same period last year [2]. Group 2: Game License Distribution - In September, 145 domestic game licenses were issued, including titles from major companies such as Tencent, NetEase, and miHoYo [2]. - Additionally, 11 imported game licenses were granted, featuring notable titles like "Super Hole" and "MapleStory: New Chapter" [2]. Group 3: Market Size and Trends - In August, the domestic gaming market size was 29.263 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month growth of 0.61% but a year-on-year decline of 13.01% due to high base effects from the previous year [3]. - Mobile game revenue was 21.521 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 0.85% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.25%, while client game revenue was 6.563 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month decline of 1.11% but a year-on-year increase of 17.59% [3].
国泰海通|地产:RWA代币:房地产投融资潜在创新新星
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-09-26 11:08
Core Viewpoint - RWA tokens have significant development potential in the real estate investment and financing sector, offering higher liquidity, transparency, trading efficiency, and cost advantages, while legal regulation and risk control remain challenging [1]. Group 1: Purpose of Research - The research focuses on the concept and types of RWA (Real-World Asset), its significance for real estate, and the advantages and risks associated with real estate RWA [2]. Group 2: Characteristics and Significance of RWA - RWA features include widespread transaction accessibility, convenience, traceability, low costs, high efficiency, and serving as the foundation for decentralized finance (DeFi) [3]. - RWA enhances the real estate sector by improving issuance and trading efficiency, significantly reducing intermediary costs, and lowering investment thresholds while increasing asset transparency [3]. Group 3: Development Trends, Risk Prevention, and Case Studies - The global value of RWA assets has reached $25.4 billion, with Deloitte projecting that real estate RWA tokens will reach $4 trillion by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 27% [4]. - Notable cases include the first compliant real estate investment trust (REIT) STO issuance in Hong Kong in 2022, the listing of RWA NFT ownership certificates for a Hong Kong office by Greenland (Asia) Securities in June 2025, and a $1 billion U.S. real estate token project initiated by Blocksquare and Vera Capital in Q2 2025 [4].
国泰海通|海外策略:每周海内外重要政策跟踪(25/09/26)
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-09-26 11:08
Domestic Macro - On September 19, the State Council discussed the revised draft of the Banking Supervision Law of the People's Republic of China [1] - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on achieving high-quality completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the financial sector's achievements during this period [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Party Committee announced efforts to promote long-term capital entering the market [1] - The Ministry of Finance indicated guidance for local governments to implement a series of incremental debt support policies [1] - On September 23, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued policies to promote service exports, including optimizing zero tax rate declaration procedures and increasing export credit insurance support [1] - On September 24, the People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan this month, marking the seventh consecutive month of increased operations [1] Industry Policy - On September 20, the National Healthcare Security Administration released the 11th batch of drug procurement documents [2] - On September 21, the China Academy of Science and Technology Development Strategy published the "China Regional Science and Technology Innovation Evaluation Report 2025" [2] - The State Council's Food Safety Office is accelerating the establishment of national standards for prepared dishes [2] - On September 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly issued the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)", setting an average annual growth target of around 4% for the steel industry's added value [2] - The National Sports Administration released guidelines to promote the high-quality development of sports for health [2] - On September 23, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued guidelines to vigorously develop digital consumption, including trials for smart connected vehicles [2] - On September 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issued the "Building Materials Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)", with strict capacity control for cement and glass [2] - On September 25, the National Healthcare Security Administration published the "National Long-term Care Insurance Service Project Directory (Trial)" [2] Local Policy - On September 19, Shanghai issued a notice optimizing the personal housing property tax pilot policies, exempting the first home for talent with residence permits and families with residence permits for over three years, and exempting the second home within 60 square meters per person [3] - On September 21, Sanya passed the "Implementation Measures for the Development of Guaranteed Rental Housing", with rental prices for guaranteed rental housing guided by the government [3] - On September 25, Tianjin will conduct a pilot for the registration of real estate trust property [3] Overseas Dynamics - On September 19, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [4] - The European Commission approved a new round of sanctions against Russia, covering energy, financial services, and trade restrictions [4] - On September 20, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order significantly reforming the H-1B visa program, requiring applicants to pay a fee of $100,000 [4] - On September 22, President Trump stated he would meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC informal leaders' meeting [4] - On September 24, Li Qiang met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in New York; the U.S. officially imposed a 15% tariff on EU cars and automotive products [4] - On September 25, the Ministry of Commerce announced the inclusion of three U.S. entities, including Flat Earth Management, in the export control list and initiated an investigation into trade and investment barriers related to Mexico [4]
国泰海通|产业:呼吸系统专题(一):慢阻肺治疗缺口突出,PDE3/4及多疗法共破局
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-09-26 11:08
Core Viewpoint - Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) has a high prevalence and mortality rate, indicating a significant unmet medical need for new treatment options [1] Group 1: Unmet Medical Needs in COPD - COPD is a leading cause of disability and death globally, with approximately 300 million cases worldwide and 100 million in China [1] - Current standard treatments (LAMA/LABA/ICS) have been in use for 40 years and carry risks of pneumonia, cardiovascular issues, and urinary tract infections, highlighting the urgent need for new therapies [1] Group 2: PDE3/4 Inhibitors and Market Activity - Merck acquired Verona for $10 billion to obtain Ensifentrine, while GSK spent approximately $12.5 billion to acquire HRS-9821 from Hansoh Pharma, reflecting the importance of the respiratory market and PDE3/4 targeted drugs [2] - PDE3 and PDE4 inhibitors have synergistic effects, potentially improving airway smooth muscle contraction and controlling inflammation, thus showing significant application potential [2] - Ensifentrine received FDA approval in June 2024, with sales reaching $217 million by Q2 2025, representing a 44% quarter-over-quarter growth, indicating substantial market potential [2] Group 3: Targeted Therapies for Eosinophilic Phenotype - Dupilumab (IL-4R) and mepolizumab (IL-5) have been successfully approved for COPD, focusing on high eosinophil count populations [3] - Dupilumab, the first targeted therapy for COPD, was approved by the FDA in 2024, with sales exceeding $14 billion in 2024 [3] - Mepolizumab showed positive results in trials with eosinophilic phenotype patients, demonstrating a correlation between eosinophil count and reduced acute exacerbation rates [3] Group 4: Emerging Targets and Domestic Innovations - TSLP and ST2/IL33 targets currently lack approved drugs, but domestic companies are innovating [4] - Amgen/AZ's tezepelumab is the only TSLP monoclonal antibody on the market, while domestic firms like Zhengda Tianqing and Kangnuo are developing differentiated therapies with promising efficacy [4] - The ST2/IL33 target, which is upstream of IL-4/IL-13, is being explored by domestic companies, with no approved drugs globally yet [4]
就在今天|区块链应用创新与资产上链的战略机遇
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-09-25 22:18
ttp://20 区块链应用创新与资产上链的战略机遇 2025年9月26日·第一期 深圳市福田区益田路 4088 号福田香格里拉酒店 3 楼 全球金融体系正经历数字技术驱动的深刻重构,以区块链为基石的创新浪潮不仅重塑 支付清算、资产流通模式,更在货币主权、跨境金融基础设施层面引发历史性变革;链 上数字资产从技术实验走向合规化市场实践,人民币国际化在数字货币时代迎来突破 窗口,如何借助分布式技术构建跨境信任网络,成为大国金融博弈的关键变量。 区块链产业自身也正从底层协议迭代迈向商业生态爆发期,证券、贸易、供应链等场景 的规模化落地亟待前瞻研判,尤其是 Tokenization 的规模化浪潮正从链上实验场景迈 向主流金融基础设施。在产业快速演绎进化的同时,传统法律框架与链上权利的映射仍 存关键性挑战,探索更加创新的监管路径尤为迫切。 13:30-13:40 领导发言致辞 -政策和产业研究院 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制,根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求,若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户,为保 ...
国泰海通 · 晨报0926|债市、白酒
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-09-25 12:07
【固收】 墨西哥债市全览:拉美地区成熟且结构完善的债券市场 墨西哥宏观经济与债务环境演变: 债务高速扩张酿成危机,后改革逐步改善债务结构与管理。20世纪70年代,墨西哥依靠石油出口和外资流入实现经济快速 扩张,债务规模激增,外债占比超过60%。随着石油危机和美国利率飙升,墨西哥于1982年爆发债务危机。进入21世纪后,墨政府通过稳健财政和结构性改 革逐步化解历史债务风险,债务结构趋于合理。截至2025年,墨西哥政府债券总额达14.5万亿比索,其中固定利率债和通胀挂钩债占比提升,反映出政府倾 向于长期、低利率融资和对冲通胀的战略安排。当前经济增速温和,外部融资需求持续,墨西哥央行降息减轻债务负担,整体债务可持续性有所改善。 墨西哥债券市场是拉美地区最成熟和国际化程度较高的固定收益市场之一。 央行独立实施货币政策,依托丰沛外汇储备与稳健资产负债表,在近年通胀波动 背景下灵活调整利率,维护金融稳定。墨西哥采纳灵活汇率制度,汇率自由浮动,具备作为外部冲击缓冲器的功能,且外汇管制程度较低。债券发行、交易、 结算等基础设施完善,集中交易平台(BMV)和场外市场互补,结算系统高度电子化、标准化。法治环境与国际规范接轨,债务 ...
国泰海通|食饮:白酒:即时零售渠道兴起——白酒新渠道专题报告
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-09-25 12:07
报告导读: 2025 年以来供需共同驱动即时零售渠道扩张,本轮渠道浪潮有望为酒类品牌 提供结构性机会,白酒、啤酒等领域具备较强渠道力和资金实力的企业有望受益。 投资建议: 零售渠道正经历变革、呈现结构性增长,即时零售成为酒类渠道亮点。 1 )白酒仍在磨底,全国化名酒及区域头部酒企韧性相对较强、具备领先 的渠道开拓能力和资金实力 ; 2 )啤酒作为酒类第二大品类、客群广泛,在即时零售中的参与度较高,推荐龙头及成长标的 。 即时零售:大盘景气,酒类积极参与。 我国零售行业经历了传统零售、电商、新零售的发展过程,即时零售极大缩短履约时间、丰富消费者选择。近年来我 国即时零售规模迅速扩大, 2025 年外卖大战边际催化,行业有望在未来几年维持双位数增长。具体到酒水领域,酒类即时零售最早发源于 1919 、酒小二 等垂类平台, 2015 年前后加速,形成垂类、平台型、仓店一体型、前置仓型 4 类渠道模式;与此同时酒企加大布局与合作,酒类即时零售渗透率显著提 升。 我们认为酒类即时零售的兴起主要有三方面原因。 一是消费习惯改变,消费者愈发追求便捷,且临时需求激发后希望快速得到满足。二是契合性价比需求, 压缩流通环节的同时 ...
国泰海通|传媒:9月国产游戏版号下发,优质产品表现突出
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-09-25 12:07
Core Insights - The article highlights the stable approval process for domestic game licenses in China, with a significant increase in the number of licenses issued in 2025 compared to the previous year [1][3] - The gaming market in August 2025 showed stable performance, with notable revenue contributions from high-quality products, indicating a positive outlook for game development companies [2][3] Group 1: License Approval and Supply - On September 24, 2025, the National Press and Publication Administration approved 145 domestic games and 11 imported games, indicating a robust supply of game licenses [1] - The total number of domestic game licenses issued in 2025 has reached 1,195, significantly higher than the 959 licenses issued in the same period last year, with an average monthly issuance of 132.8 licenses [1] Group 2: Market Performance - In August 2025, the domestic gaming market generated revenue of 29.263 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 0.61% but a year-on-year decline of 13.01% due to a high base from the previous year [2] - Mobile game revenue was 21.521 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 0.85% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.25%, while client game revenue was 6.563 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month decline of 1.11% but a year-on-year increase of 17.59% [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The stable approval rhythm for game licenses and the rich supply of game products lead to a favorable investment outlook for companies with strong content reserves and solid fundamentals [3]
国泰海通 · 洞察价值丨合集
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-09-25 12:07
Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation in various industries driven by new consumption patterns, technological advancements, and the need for quality over quantity in market offerings [3][4][5][6][17]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The new consumption era is characterized by a mismatch between supply and demand, with marketing playing a crucial role in driving consumption growth [3]. - There is a focus on quality and value in the real estate market, which is expected to stabilize consumer confidence [4]. Group 2: Industry Innovations - The article highlights the importance of technological innovation in sectors such as AI, robotics, and communication, indicating a shift towards hardware and algorithm-driven solutions [6][9][10]. - The automotive industry is noted for its vast potential for growth, driven by technological advancements and market expansion [6]. Group 3: Economic and Market Outlook - The article suggests that the Chinese stock market is poised for further growth, with expectations of new highs despite current economic challenges [18]. - It emphasizes the macroeconomic policy framework of "fiscal dominance and monetary cooperation," which is shaping market dynamics [18]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The steel industry is highlighted as having long-term investment opportunities, particularly in leading companies [5]. - The healthcare sector is undergoing significant changes, with a focus on innovative drug development as a key to its future [4]. Group 5: Broader Economic Context - The article discusses the impact of global changes on China's economic landscape, suggesting that the country is adapting to new macroeconomic realities [17]. - It also mentions the potential for increased industry prosperity due to the easing of competitive pressures and interest rate reductions [17].