Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong start for the tourism market in 2026, with significant increases in domestic travel and duty-free shopping during the New Year holiday [1][2]. Group 2 - During the 2026 New Year holiday, domestic travel reached 142 million trips, a 5.19% increase compared to 2024, with total spending of 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.35% [1]. - The average spending per person was 597.1 yuan, reflecting a 1.1% increase from 2024 [1]. - Duty-free shopping in Hainan saw remarkable growth, with sales of 307,000 items from January 1 to 2, 2026, marking a 48.3% year-on-year increase, and total shopping amounts reaching 505 million yuan, up 121.5% [1]. - On January 2, 2026, sales continued to rise, with 159,000 items sold, a 70.6% increase, and shopping amounts of 254 million yuan, up 156.6% [1]. Group 3 - The total cross-regional movement of people in the society was estimated at 590 million trips from January 1 to 3, 2026, a 19.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - Railway passenger volume was projected at 48.223 million trips, a 53.1% increase, while road travel was expected to reach 540 million trips, up 15.5% [2]. - Waterway passenger volume was estimated at 2.29 million trips, a 35.3% increase, and civil aviation passenger volume was projected at 5.881 million trips, up 10.49% [2].

Macro Insights - The New Year's holiday saw a significant increase in travel, with inter-regional mobility growing by 19.5% year-on-year, reaching a recent high. Short-distance "micro-vacations" have become mainstream, with strong performance in service consumption, particularly in entertainment. However, product consumption has declined due to the waning effects of year-end sales [4]. - Real estate sales are showing marginal declines, although the easing of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities has released some demand. Infrastructure and construction are still constrained by insufficient new projects [4]. - The port operations remain stable, but there is a divergence in domestic import freight rates and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Most industries are experiencing a decline in operating rates, with petrochemicals and automotive sectors showing weak performance due to rising costs and falling demand, while emerging sectors like lithium batteries and photovoltaics are performing well [4]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is generally rising, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows mixed results. The RMB exchange rate has surpassed 7.0, with funding rates and government bond yields trending upward [4]. Strategy Insights - The A-share market is expected to see a "spring opening red" as it closed at 3968.84 points in 2025, marking an 18.41% annual increase. The market sentiment has shifted towards optimism, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut in the U.S. in 2026 [8]. - The influx of incremental capital, particularly through A500 ETF and insurance funds, is expected to solidify liquidity. The government has emphasized the need to stabilize and improve real estate market expectations, indicating a proactive approach to boosting growth [8][9]. - The central bank's fourth-quarter meeting highlighted the importance of price signals for promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with a gradual emergence of price increases in certain sectors due to improved demand and supply constraints [10]. Industry Comparisons - The technology sector, particularly in AI and emerging industrialization trends, is expected to see strong growth. The domestic chip technology breakthroughs and storage price increases are anticipated to continue, with a focus on companies with global competitive advantages [11]. - Non-bank financial institutions are likely to benefit from increased demand for wealth management and the migration of household deposits, with recommendations for insurance and brokerage firms [11]. - The cyclical sectors are showing signs of improvement, with low valuations and positioning, benefiting from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market. Recommendations include tourism services, hotels, and consumer goods [11]. - Specific themes to watch include AI applications, robotics, commercial aerospace, and domestic consumption, with a focus on new consumption patterns and service sectors [11].

Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to welcome a "spring opening red" with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3968.84 points, marking an annual increase of 18.41% in 2025, confirming the strategic judgment of Guotai Junan [2][7] - Key factors supporting the market include the anticipated announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair, expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026, and the influx of incremental capital represented by the A500 ETF [2][8] - The decision-making body has emphasized the need to "promote investment stabilization," indicating a stronger policy push to boost growth, particularly in the real estate sector [2][8] Group 2: Price Signals and Economic Recovery - The central bank's fourth-quarter meeting highlighted the importance of price signals in promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with price increases beginning to emerge in certain sectors since the second half of 2025 [3][11] - Specific sectors experiencing demand improvement but supply contraction include chemicals (e.g., organic silicon, refrigerants) and new energy materials (e.g., lithium carbonate) [3][11] - The current price increase cycle is characterized by demand driven by new technologies such as AI and energy storage, rather than traditional infrastructure [3][11] Group 3: Industry Comparisons - The outlook for technology, non-bank financials, and consumer sectors is positive, with strong growth expected in emerging technologies and capital goods exports [4][13] - Recommendations include technology growth stocks, non-bank financials benefiting from increased wealth management demand, and cyclical stocks positioned for recovery due to domestic demand expansion [4][13] - The focus on cyclical stocks includes those in the tourism, hotel, and consumer goods sectors, which are expected to benefit from policy support for domestic demand [4][13] Group 4: Thematic Recommendations - AI applications are expected to see significant growth, with companies like MiniMax preparing for IPOs and advancements in AI models driving demand [4][22] - The robotics sector is entering a phase of scale development, with new products being launched and significant investments in technology and supply chains [4][23] - The commercial aerospace sector is poised for growth, with new guidelines for IPOs and advancements in reusable rocket technology [4][24] - Consumer spending is expected to increase, driven by new consumption scenarios in sports events and tourism, supported by government policies [4][25]

Group 1: Swine and Cattle Farming - In 2026, swine prices are expected to remain low in the first half, leading to continued low profits in the industry [2] - The swine farming sector is undergoing capacity reduction driven by policy and cyclical adjustments, with a focus on companies that can improve costs and show growth potential [2] - The cattle farming cycle is long, and supply-side contraction is expected to drive price increases starting from 2025, as the output volume is projected to decline [4] Group 2: Poultry Farming - The white chicken industry is experiencing deep price declines, and it will take time for supply and demand to return to balance [3] - Yellow chicken prices may see slight recovery, with promotional activities for native breeds potentially boosting consumption [3] Group 3: Post-Farming Cycle - Feed sales are anticipated to grow, with an increase in industry concentration among leading companies [5] - The demand for animal health products may face pressure due to low profits in farming, but there is a focus on new product developments such as vaccines [5] Group 4: Planting Industry - Grain prices are expected to stabilize and trend upwards, emphasizing the importance of food security [6] - There is a focus on seed innovation and opportunities in specialty crops like blueberries and mushrooms [6] - The demand for plant extraction products is projected to grow due to the trend towards natural health [6] Group 5: Pet Industry - The pet market is experiencing robust growth, with pet owners showing a strong willingness to spend [7] - By 2025, the industry may face challenges in scaling revenue due to increased competition and marketing expenditures impacting short-term profit margins [7] - Companies that integrate production, sales, and research are rare and are expected to outperform in competitive scenarios, with attention on the growth of domestic brands and price increases [7]

Core Viewpoint - The new regulations aim to enhance the competitiveness of public funds while considering the liquidity needs of holders of off-market index and bond funds, thus promoting high-quality development in the public fund industry [2][3]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The new regulations, effective from January 1, 2026, optimize short redemption fee policies for off-market index and bond funds, addressing feedback from the consultation draft [2][3]. - The maximum subscription fee for actively managed mixed equity funds has been raised from 0.5% to 0.8%, while the maximum for index funds is set at 0.3% [2]. - New provisions allow for different redemption fee standards for individual investors holding off-market index and bond funds for more than seven days, and for institutional investors holding bond funds for more than thirty days [2][3]. Impact on Fund Sales - The regulations continue to guide fund sales towards a focus on long-term holding, while also accommodating liquidity needs for off-market index and bond fund holders [3]. - The average maximum subscription fee for stock index funds, previously at 0.73%, is expected to decrease further, enhancing the attractiveness of these funds for long-term investors [3]. Investment Recommendations - The new regulations are seen as favorable for the development of bond funds, with ETF holdings becoming a key focus in the fund distribution model [3]. - It is recommended to prioritize brokers with strong ETF comprehensive service capabilities and investment advisory business [3].

Group 1 - The article examines the application of PLS model expected factor returns in factor weighting, focusing on both single-factor multi-strategy and multi-factor single-strategy dimensions [1] - In the top 100 combinations of 20 single factors, using the PLS model for the five most volatile factor combinations resulted in an annualized return increase of approximately 4.0% compared to mean-weighted returns, and 6.6% compared to equal-weighted returns [2] - The article constructs six basic combinations including one dividend selection, one growth selection, two small-cap combinations, and two relatively balanced style combinations, achieving an annualized return increase of 3.3% over excess return mean weighting and 3.9% over equal weighting for volatile combinations [2] Group 2 - In multi-factor models, using PLS expected returns to determine factor weights can improve the expected IC and performance of top 100 combinations, although this improvement is not consistent across all cross-sections [3] - The PLS weighting method is noted to be more robust overall, but may underperform compared to mean IC weighting and ICIR weighting when factor momentum is strong, as observed in 2023 [3] - A composite quantitative fixed income + strategy using PLS expected return weighted multi-factor model for the stock side and the China Bond Short-term Index for the bond side achieved an annualized return of 8.1% with a volatility of 5.6% and a maximum drawdown of 5.4% from January 2018 to November 2025 [3]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The mid-term economic performance shows divergence, with significant price increases in chemical and non-ferrous resources due to supply constraints, while the AI industry continues to drive strong demand in the electronics sector [1] - Service consumption is showing marginal improvement, with Shanghai Disneyland's crowd index remaining high and the Hainan tourism price index increasing by 2.5% week-on-week due to border closure impacts [2] Group 2: Consumer Trends - In the real estate sector, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 30.5% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 38.2%, 27.0%, and 32.7% respectively [2] - The average daily retail of passenger cars decreased by 11% year-on-year, although the decline has narrowed [2] Group 3: Technology and Manufacturing - The electronics industry remains robust, driven by AI infrastructure investment, with DRAM prices increasing by 12.4% for DDR4 and 5.3% for DDR5 week-on-week [3] - Chemical raw material prices have significantly increased, with PX and PTA prices rising by 0.5% and 7.4% respectively, attributed to supply constraints [3] Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Domestic and international flight operations saw a slight increase of 0.3% and a decrease of 2.6% respectively, indicating a decline in long-distance travel demand [4] - Nationwide highway truck traffic and railway freight volume decreased by 0.5% and 6.1% respectively, reflecting weakened logistics demand [4]

报告导读： 2025 年 12 月 30 日，国家发展改革委、财政部印发《关于 2026 年实施大 规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，明确延续汽车报废更新与置换更新补贴。 事件： 2025 年 12 月 30 日，国家发展改革委、财政部印发《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》 ， 明确延续汽车报废更新 与置换更新补贴。 《通知》继续支持汽车报废更新： 个人消费者报废本人名下乘用车，并购买纳入《减免车辆购置税的新能源汽车车型目录》的新能源乘用车或 2.0 升及以下 排量燃油乘用车的，给予汽车报废更新补贴支持，购买新能源乘用车补贴车价的 12% （最高不超过 2 万元）、购买 2.0 升及以下排量燃油乘用车补贴车价 的 10% （最高不超过 1.5 万元）。 《通知》继续支持汽车置换更新： 个人消费者转让本人名下乘用车，并购买符合上述目录要求的新能源乘用车或 2.0 升及以下排量燃油乘用车的，给予汽车 置换更新补贴支持，购买新能源乘用车补贴车价的 8% （最高不超过 1.5 万元）、购买 2.0 升及以下排量燃油乘用车补贴车价的 6% （最高不超过 1.3 万 元）。 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the progress of two native large model companies, MiniMax and Zhipu Huazhang, in their Hong Kong stock listings, emphasizing their deep technical accumulation in AI research and the emergence of monetizable business models, indicating a growing scale in China's AI large model sector [1][2]. Group 1: MiniMax - MiniMax has been engaged in AI large model research since early 2022, with its latest M2.1 model showing significant improvements over its predecessor M2, even outperforming models like Gemini 3 Pro and GPT-5.2 in certain benchmarks [2][3]. - The company reported a revenue of $53.437 million for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 175% year-on-year increase, with a significant portion of revenue (71%) coming from AI native products and enterprise services [2][3]. - MiniMax's Talkie/Xingye application ranks second globally in monthly active users (MAU) within its niche, while its video generation product, Hailuo 2.3, is gaining widespread recognition and is becoming a new growth driver for the company [2][3]. Group 2: Zhipu Huazhang - Zhipu Huazhang's latest large language model, GLM-4.7, aligns with Claude Sonnet4.5, and the company has developed a comprehensive model matrix including reflective, multimodal, and agent models [3]. - The company generated revenue of 191 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 325% year-on-year growth, with its primary revenue source being the MaaS (Model as a Service) business model [3]. - Zhipu Huazhang's business model includes both standardized cloud deployment and customized local deployment, catering to a diverse range of industries and regions [3]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Both companies have demonstrated significant revenue growth, with MiniMax and Zhipu Huazhang investing heavily in R&D to support technological advancements, with MiniMax's R&D expenses reaching $180 million (337% of revenue) and Zhipu Huazhang's R&D expenses at 1.595 billion yuan (8.35 times its revenue) in the respective periods [3]. - The article suggests that the ongoing development and iteration of AI technology will continue to create investment opportunities as these companies advance their commercial applications [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The Mini LED industry is entering a rapid growth phase due to technological advancements and cost reductions, with expectations of significant sales increases in the coming years [1][3]. Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - By 2025, China's Mini LED TV sales are projected to grow by 122% year-on-year, with a penetration rate exceeding 25% [1][3]. - The global Mini LED TV market is expected to see shipments surpassing 13 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 70.6% [3]. - The introduction of RGB Mini LED TVs by more brands is anticipated in 2026, further enhancing market penetration [1][3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Mini LED technology, characterized by LED chips sized between 100-300 microns, allows for precise control of backlighting in LCD displays, improving contrast and dynamic range [2]. - The technology addresses key limitations of traditional OLED displays, such as brightness and lifespan, positioning Mini LED as a significant driver in the television industry [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Mini LED is increasingly competing with OLED in the mid-to-high-end television market, with ongoing efforts to reduce costs and improve technology [1][3]. - Despite challenges in image quality compared to OLED, Mini LED is expected to penetrate the mid-to-low-end market and other sectors like automotive and direct display [1][2].