Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the liquidity crisis is intensifying market volatility, which will accelerate the repricing of major asset classes. Global equities and commodities may still present performance opportunities, recommending an overweight in AH shares, US stocks, crude oil, and industrial commodities for February [1]. Group 1: Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) and Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) - The "all-weather" asset allocation framework consists of SAA, TAA, and adjustments based on significant events, providing a comprehensive guide for investment decisions. SAA diversifies macro risks and sets long-term allocation benchmarks for portfolio stability, while TAA identifies short-term risk-return characteristics to adjust portfolio weights for enhanced returns [1]. - The report emphasizes that the liquidity crisis will lead to accelerated repricing of major asset classes, with global equities and commodities likely to perform well despite unchanged fundamental pricing factors [1]. Group 2: Equity Allocation Recommendations - For February 2026, the recommended equity allocation weight is 47.50%, with overweight positions in A-shares (10.00%), Hong Kong stocks (10.00%), and US stocks (17.50%). European and Japanese stocks are set at standard weights of 5.00% each [2]. - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, suggesting an overweight in A/H shares due to an expected expansion of the fiscal deficit and more aggressive economic policies. The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the stable appreciation of the RMB provide favorable conditions for monetary easing in China [2]. - The report indicates that the "Goldilocks" scenario is emerging, which is beneficial for US stock performance, as the US economy shows resilience despite marginal cooling, with corporate earnings expectations likely to support upward movement in US stock indices [2]. Group 3: Bond Allocation Recommendations - The recommended bond allocation weight for February 2026 is 35.00%, with allocations to long-term (7.50%) and short-term (10.00%) government bonds, as well as long-term (7.50%) and short-term (10.00%) US Treasury bonds [3]. - Structural monetary policies are expected to strengthen the allocation towards government bonds, as the imbalance between financing demand and credit supply remains a reality. The trend of rising risk appetite may lead to a rebalancing of asset allocations by households and enterprises [3]. - The report notes that while the US economy is converging, it is not in a downturn, with a moderate cooling labor market and declining energy prices contributing to lower inflationary pressures. However, geopolitical tensions and the US government's actions may weaken the creditworthiness of US Treasuries [3]. Group 4: Commodity Allocation Recommendations - The recommended commodity allocation weight for February 2026 is 12.50%, with standard allocations to gold (5.00%) and overweight positions in crude oil (3.75%) and industrial commodities (3.75%) [4]. - The report suggests an overweight in crude oil due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which may provide temporary support for oil prices despite weak global demand [4]. - Industrial commodities are expected to benefit from revised demand forecasts and sustained trading momentum, with copper experiencing supply-demand imbalances driven by construction, electric grid modernization, and electric vehicle demand [4].

Core Viewpoint - The optical fiber industry is experiencing a significant price increase driven by a surge in demand due to the competition in computing power, particularly from AI data centers, leading to a robust growth in both domestic and international markets [1][2]. Group 1: Optical Fiber Demand and Pricing Trends - The optical fiber market is witnessing a price increase after a period of pressure in the first half of last year, with the demand for G657A2 fibers significantly boosting production capacity adjustments, resulting in reduced supply of G652D fibers and longer delivery times [1] - The upcoming procurement by telecom and mobile operators, along with pre-Spring Festival inventory demands, is expected to further drive prices higher, indicating that major domestic clients are likely to accept these price increases [1] - The export performance of optical fiber and cable has been outstanding, with overseas demand driven by AI-related data center needs contributing to a continuous rise in global optical fiber demand [1] Group 2: Impact of AI and Data Centers - The demand for optical fibers is being significantly reshaped by intelligent computing centers, which require ultra-high bandwidth and low-latency transmission, making them the core engine for growth in the optical fiber sector [2] - A single intelligent computing center can require several times more optical fiber than traditional data centers, with a typical GPU cluster needing tens of thousands of fiber kilometers for internal connections [2] - The share of optical fiber demand from AI-driven data center interconnect (DCI) scenarios is projected to increase from less than 5% in 2024 to 35% by 2027, highlighting the rapid growth in this segment [2] Group 3: Growth in Specialty and Multimode Fibers - There is a continuous growth in the demand for specialty and multimode fibers, with rapid advancements being made by companies both domestically and internationally [3] - The domestic leading optical fiber and cable manufacturers are expected to benefit significantly from the price increase trend driven by the surge in demand [3]

对固收 + 与多资产组合而言，股债弱相关意味着"债券对冲权益"的效率偏低 ，单纯依赖股债负相关来提供稳健性的确定性下降。因此， 组合构建上应有意识 下调对"股债对冲"的单一依赖 ，把稳健性更多交给久期结构、曲线配置与品种分散来实现；含权仓位强调可控风险暴露与组合波动管理，让收益更多来自结 构轮动与精选，而非依赖负相关"兜底"。 风险提示：数据统计遗漏、偏误；政策理解不到位；理论推演理解有别；等等。 2025 年以来股债关系由显著"跷跷板"逐渐走向"脱敏"。 25 年上半年"跷跷板"的形成，更多来自风险资产比价与估值再定价 ： 此前利率下行过快、债券价 格偏贵、后续空间被透支；同时权益在科技主线带动下自低位修复、风险偏好回升，资金在股债之间的相对性价比再配置对利率形成阶段性压制。 25 年下半 年，联动强度的削弱更像是低利率约束下债市回归区间震荡的自然结果 ： 利率上端受权益偏强与供给扰动牵制，下端又受资金面稳定与政策预期呵护约束， 债市缺乏触发单边行情的定价力量；在"股强债震荡"的组合下，股债联动向弱相关区间收敛。 股债关联强度的变化显著影响股债组合的对冲效率。 我们发现： 股债相关性绝对值的变化，与股息率的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fiber optic cable industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a confirmed upward price trend due to increased demand from telecom operators and data centers [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The fiber optic market is witnessing a price increase, particularly for G657A2 fibers, driven by heightened overseas demand and reduced supply of G652D fibers, resulting in longer delivery times [2]. - The upcoming procurement by telecom operators and pre-Spring Festival inventory demands are expected to further drive price increases in the domestic market [2]. - Export performance of fiber optic cables is strong, with international markets becoming a significant growth point for companies in the sector [2]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The demand for fiber optics is surging due to the rise of intelligent computing centers, which require ultra-high bandwidth and low-latency transmission, fundamentally changing the demand dynamics in the fiber optic industry [3]. - A typical intelligent computing center can require several times more fiber than traditional data centers, with a single GPU cluster needing tens of thousands of fiber kilometers for internal connections [3]. - The share of fiber demand from AI-driven data center interconnect (DCI) applications is projected to increase from less than 5% in 2024 to 35% by 2027 [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The domestic leading fiber optic manufacturers are expected to benefit significantly from the price increase trend driven by the surge in fiber optic demand, with profit elasticity likely to be continuously revised upwards [4].

报告导读： 2025 年计算机业绩预告中，正向增长公司占比过半，呈现增长与下滑并存的 两极分化格局，利润端改善强于营收端，高增长主要集中在硬件与 AI 应用相关方向。 中位数数据显示， 2025 年计算机公司 利润表现优于营收 。 根据统计， 238 家发布业绩预告的公司中，仅 70 家发布营收数据，营收增速的中位数为 0.97% 。归母净利润增速的中 位数为 1 7.83% ；扣非净利润增速的中位数为 28.68% 。总体而言，利润增速高于营收增速。此外，大市值公司在业绩区间 统计中更偏向增长端，在四季度业绩确定性相对更强。 2025 年计算机行业业绩正向占比过半， 增长与下滑两极分化 。 根据申万行业分类， 358 家计算机公司中发布业绩预告 238 家，占比达到了 66.5% 。根 据预计归母净利润同比增长中位数划分： 30%+ 共有 103 家，占 42.9% ； 10%~30% 27 家，占 11.3% ； 0~10% 12 家，占 5.0% ； 0~-10% 6 家，占 2.5% ； -10%~-30% 3 家，占 1.3% ； -30%+ 87 家，占 36.3% 。整体呈现"两头大、中间小"的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's significant reduction in coal production quotas is expected to accelerate the global coal price into an upward cycle, with a focus on companies that have predictable volume and price elasticity over the next five years [2]. Group 1: Indonesia's Export Policy Adjustment - Indonesia's government has implemented a substantial reduction in coal production quotas, with a decrease of 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, as part of a plan to boost coal prices [2]. - The coal production for Indonesia in 2025 is projected to be 790 million tons, a 5% decrease year-on-year, down from an initial quota of 917 million tons [2]. - For 2026, Indonesia may further reduce its production quota to 600 million tons, representing a 24% decline from 2025 levels, reflecting a shift in the government's export strategy for resources including nickel and coal [2]. Group 2: Global Coal Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global coal supply-demand balance is expected to be disrupted starting in 2026, with supply contraction leading to increased demand, indicating a favorable outlook for the upward cycle of coal prices [3]. - Indonesia, as the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, is projected to export 524 million tons in 2025, a 6.1% decrease year-on-year, which will contribute to a tightening global coal supply [3]. - Other countries, such as Australia and Russia, are also expected to see production declines, with Australia facing over 5% of its capacity exiting the market and Russia's production declining due to lack of capital expenditure [3]. Group 3: China's Coal Import Outlook - Indonesia's coal exports to China are expected to decline to 210 million tons in 2025, a 10.6% decrease, accounting for 42.9% of China's total coal imports of 490 million tons [4]. - The anticipated decline in Indonesian coal production will lead to a further reduction in China's coal imports, with projections for 2026 suggesting a total import volume of around 450 million tons, a decrease of approximately 40 million tons [4]. - Domestic coal prices in China are expected to recover in 2026, ending a four-year downward trend, as stable domestic supply and slightly reduced overseas imports coincide with a steady recovery in demand [4].

风险提示： 量化模型基于历史数据构建，而历史规律存在失效风险。 价值成长风格轮动月度策略。 月度观点： 1 月底量化模型信号为 0 ，建议 2 月等权配置成长和价值风格。中长期观点，未来一年更看好成长风格。截止 1 月底，模型收益 4.01% ，相对等权基准（ 4.01% ）的超额收益为 0% 。策略构建详见报告《量化视角多维度构建月度和周度价值成长风格轮动策略 _20250305 》。 风格因子表现跟踪。 8 个大类因子中， 1 月价值、波动率因子正向收益较高；大市值、质量因子负向收益较高。本年价值、波动率因子正向收益较高；大市 值、质量因子负向收益较高。 24 个风格因子中， 1 月贝塔、长期反转、中市值因子正向收益较高；大市值、残差波动、行业动量因子负向收益较高。本年 贝塔、长期反转、中市值因子正向收益较高；大市值、残差波动、行业动量因子负向收益较高。 因子构建详见报告《 A 股风险模型实践：风险因子篇 _20240519 》。 因子协方差矩阵更新。 股票协方差矩阵估计是股票组合风险预测的核心。利用多因子模型，可以将股票协方差矩阵拆解为因子协方差矩阵和股票特质风险矩 阵的结合，从而完成较为准确的估计。本 ...

报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： AI应用重要阵地，Robotaxi还看中国；报告日期：2026.02.04 报告作者： 刘一鸣（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040050 石佳艺（分析师），登记编号：S0880525070001 Robotaxi平价供给创造需求，中国Robotaxi市场空间可达500亿元，硬件降本，软件迭代，政策开放，Robotaxi已近商业化拐点，L2、L4参与者共同推进 Robotaxi加速渗透，推荐Robotaxi增量硬件标的，关注Robotaxi算法公司。 风险提示： 智能驾驶法规制定不及预期：智能驾驶车辆的上路需要以道路安全法规做出相应修改为基础，如责任界定、数据保存等存在技术难点，遇到特殊 事故情况责任难以界定影响道路安全法规的修改进度，则产业链商业闭环时点将延后。智能驾驶技术进步不及预期：算法的易用性决定了乘车体验，芯片的价 格决定了智能驾驶套件的成本，这两者直接决定智能网联车辆的推广速度，如技术迭代放缓，则产业链商业闭环时点将延后。出现智能驾驶事故：将极大影响 消费者对于技术的信任程度，进而影响推广速度。 扫码关注 星标不迷路 国 ...

投资建议： 我们认为， 26 年开年之际促消费政策频发，扩内需战略持续推进，将加速消费信心提振，推动消费需求扩张。第三方收单公司有望受益于线下 消费复苏。 风险提示。 政策波动风险；政策落地不及预期；消费复苏不及预期。 报告导读： 26 年开年之际促消费政策频发，扩内需战略持续推进， 将加速消费信心提 振，推动消费需求扩张 ，第三方收单公司有望受益。 国办重磅政策提振服务消费。 2026 年 1 月 29 日，国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，旨在优化和扩大服务供给，促进服务消费 提质惠民。《工作方案》提出三方面支持政策。一是聚焦交通服务、家政服务、网络视听服务、旅居服务、汽车后市场服务、入境消费等重点领域，从优化服 务供给、推进先行先试、创新消费场景、加强人才培养等方面发力，激发发展活力。二是聚焦演出服务、体育赛事服务、情绪式体验式服务等潜力领域，从健 全激励机制、优化安全管理、培育优质品牌、建设平台载体等方面着手，培育发展动能。三是通过健全标准体系、加强信用建设、强化财政金融支持等，加强 对培育服务消费新增长点的支持保障。 2026 年"国补"继续，"两新"政策优化。 2025 年 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the continuation of technology and resource prosperity, indicating a potential turning point for domestic demand, driven by AI infrastructure investment and signs of recovery in consumer spending [2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Global technology hardware demand remains strong, with a temporary slowdown in storage chip price increases, yet prices remain high [2]. - Resource prices are experiencing localized increases, particularly in chemical products with significant supply constraints, while non-ferrous metal supply remains tight [2]. - Consumer recovery shows some positive signs, with high-end liquor prices stabilizing and progress in real estate policies, suggesting a potential stabilization in domestic demand [2]. Group 2: Downstream Consumption - High-end liquor prices, such as Moutai, have increased by 3.9% for original and 3.0% for bulk, likely due to pre-Spring Festival gifting demand [3]. - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities decreased by 23.1% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a drop of 41.6% [3]. - Retail sales of passenger cars fell by 22.0% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the durable goods sector [3]. Group 3: Technology & Manufacturing - Storage price increases have slowed, with DRAM prices showing mixed trends; DDR4 prices decreased by 1.3% while DDR5 prices increased by 1.4% [4]. - Chemical product prices remain strong, with PX and PTA prices increasing by 5.2% and decreasing by 0.4%, respectively [4]. - Coal prices rose by 1.0% due to a brief cold snap, while industrial metal prices experienced significant volatility influenced by changes in Federal Reserve leadership [4]. Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Passenger transport demand remained stable before the holiday, with a slight decrease of 0.2% in major cities [5]. - Freight logistics demand increased, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume rising by 4.8% and 2.3% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - Port throughput showed a rebound, indicating a potential recovery in export activity [5].