报告导读： ①北向资金：最近一周可能小幅净流入，其中灵活型外资可能小幅净流入。② 港股：最近一周稳定型外资流出178亿港元，灵活型外资流入57亿港元，港股通流入57亿 港元。③亚太市场：外资本周流出日本，11月外资流出印度。④美欧市场：10月资金流出 欧洲，流入美国。 北向资金：最近一周北向资金可能小幅净流入。 最近一周（2025/12/1-2025/12/5，下同）交易日期间北向资金估算净流入11亿元，前一周（2025/11/24- 2025/11/28，下同）估算净流入37亿元。最近一周交易日期间灵活型外资估算净流入33亿元，前一周估算净流入66亿元。此外，我们汇总最近一周陆股通每日 前十大活跃个股，其中中际旭创（本周陆股通双向成交总金额为186亿元，占个股当周交易金额比重的11%，下同）、新易盛（120亿元、8%）、宁德时代 （111亿元、15%）成交较为活跃。 港股： 长线外资连续5周流入港股有色金属。 根据港交所中央结算系统持股明细数据，最近一周（2025/11/26-2025/12/2）各类资金合计流出港股市场31亿港 元，其中稳定型外资流出178亿港元，灵活型外资流入57亿港元，港股通流入57亿 ...

风险提示： 宏观经济政策风险，基建投资低于预期等。 报告导读： 国常会研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。我们建议关注新型电力系统建设相关机 会。国务院以新型城镇化为主题开展集体学习，再提城市更新和稳楼市等。 国常会研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。我们建议关注新型电力系统建设相关机会。 (1)12月5日召开国务院常务会议，研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。节能降碳 是推进碳达峰碳中和、加快发展方式绿色转型的重要抓手。要更高水平更高质量做好节能降碳工作，加大统筹力度，锚定总体目标，因地制宜推进，在经济发 展中促进绿色转型、在绿色转型中实现更好发展。要切实增强节能降碳内生动力，充分发挥政策效应，不断完善市场机制，有效调动全社会的积极性，加快形 成绿色生产生活方式。(2)建筑板块关注新型电力系统建设，如风电、光伏能源施工板块，分布式光伏，抽水蓄能和新型储能，虚拟电厂，氢能产业链建设 等。 国务院以新型城镇化为主题开展集体学习，再提城市更新和稳楼市等。 (1)12月3日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格 局"为主题进行专题学习。新型城镇化是扩大内需和促进产业升级、做强国内大循环的重要载体。展望"十五五" ...

以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 国家能源局启动"人工智能"能源试点，中法持续推进和平利用核能领域合作 ；报告日期： 2025.12.06 报告作者： 肖群稀（分析师），登记编号：S0880522120001 黄龙（分析师），登记编号：S0880525070027 报告导读： 上周（2025/12/1-2025/12/5）可控核聚变领域动态：1）国家能源局启 动"人工智能+"能源试点工作，聚变智能控制迎来政策东风；2）中法持续推进和平利用核 能领域合作；3）韩国启动创新聚变偏滤器研发中心，英美联手合作开发中性束技术。 投资建议： 重点关注磁体、电源、偏滤器等在内的可控核聚变关键环节核心厂商：1）磁体；2）电源；3）堆内外结构件及其他分系统。 国家能源局启动"人工智能+"能源试点工作，聚变智能控制迎来政策东风。 近日，国家能源局综合司发布《关于组织开展"人工智能+"能源试点工作的通知》 （国能综通科技〔2025〕168号），标志着我国在"人工智能+"与聚变交叉领域迈出重要步伐。此次试点工作聚焦2025年9月发布的《关于推进"人工智能+"能 源高质量发展的实施意见》中提出的八大类场景与 ...

报告导读： 从技术面来看，情绪模型信号再次回落；均线强弱指数依旧处于历史50%分位 点左右，市场趋势还有待观察。结合以上几点，我们认为，市场在短期内依旧会维持震 荡。 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 风险提示： 市场系统性风险、海外市场波动风险、模型误设风险。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20251205）短期内依旧会维持震荡 ；报告日期：2025.12.07 报告作者： 郑雅斌（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040105 曹君豪(分析师)，登记编号：S0880525040094 重要提醒 下周（20251208-20251212，后文同）市场观点：短期内依旧会维持震荡。 从量化指标上看，基于沪深 ...

Group 1: Bond Fund Holdings and Performance - The leverage level of pure bond funds reached 118.27%, significantly higher than that of mixed bond funds that can invest in equities [1] - The overall duration has shortened to 2.84, aligning with product positioning strategies [1] - Concentration risk in individual bonds is evident, with short-term and long-term bond funds showing much higher concentration than mixed bond funds, possibly due to liquidity needs or strategy focus [1] - Mixed primary bond funds performed steadily with an average return of 0.62% and a maximum drawdown of -0.81%, indicating acceptable risk-adjusted returns [1] - Mixed secondary bond funds led in returns with an average of 2.98%, but also had the highest drawdown at -1.07%, with improved risk-adjusted returns compared to the previous two quarters [1] - Short-term bond funds exhibited the lowest volatility, but current yield attractiveness is limited [1] - Long-duration bond funds performed poorly with an average return of -0.35% and a maximum drawdown of -0.69% [1] Group 2: Amortized Cost Method Bond Funds - As of November 13, 2025, there are 191 amortized cost method bond funds still in operation, with a total net asset value of approximately 1.47 trillion yuan and a total asset value of about 2.03 trillion yuan [2] - The market value of bond investments within these funds is around 1.95 trillion yuan [2] - A significant number of amortized bond funds with a closed period greater than three years are expected to open from the end of 2025 to the entire year of 2026, with 109 funds anticipated to open [2] - The opening of amortized bond funds is expected to drive demand for long-term credit bonds [2] Group 3: Potential Liquidity Pressure in Credit Bond Market - Bond funds that are likely to be affected by new regulations include those with a high proportion of institutional investors (>50%), small scale (<1 billion yuan), and high duration/high elasticity (duration >5 years or leverage >130%) [3] - Over 50% of the sample consists of bond funds with more than 50% institutional investor participation, while over 60% are small bond funds [3] - Approximately 15% of the funds have high duration and high elasticity [3] - Low-yield bond funds may face significant redemption pressure within six months following the implementation of new regulations [3] - As of the end of Q3, affected bond funds (considering only institution-led funds) held credit bonds worth about 2.65 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 9.13% of the total market custody balance [3] - The market value of financial bonds held by affected bond funds is approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, representing 13.03% of the total market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of monetary policy in China, highlighting a shift towards a more nuanced approach that balances liquidity management and financial stability, particularly in the context of the bond market and economic growth support. Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2025 - In 2025, the overall liquidity environment is characterized as "quantitative easing plus stability," with a focus on enhancing the execution and transmission of monetary policy rather than aggressive counter-cyclical adjustments [1] - The central bank has been iterating its tools since mid-2024 to improve liquidity control and guide bond market pricing, providing relatively cheap medium- to long-term funds without signaling clear interest rate cuts [1] - The optimization of liquidity tools serves a dual purpose: to avoid concentrated speculation around loose monetary expectations while enhancing the sensitivity of major banks to central bank liquidity injections [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Goals for 2026 - The monetary policy in 2026 is expected to maintain a supportive stance, with a significant change in the target function emphasizing that "broad credit" does not equate to indiscriminate "broad loans" for households and enterprises [2] - With fiscal policy beginning to take effect, the role of monetary policy will shift towards providing a stable liquidity environment to support fiscal growth, ensuring the stability of the financial system and avoiding systemic risks [2] - The focus will be on improving interest rate transmission within the financial system and stabilizing the interest margin as a core observation indicator [2] Group 3: Central Bank Operations and Interest Rate Adjustments - The central bank is likely to continue a "quantitative easing plus stability" approach, with the overnight interest rate lower limit around OMO-10bp, and will focus on "lengthening" funding in the medium to long term [3] - The central bank may implement 1-2 interest rate cuts totaling 10-20 basis points throughout 2025 and 2026, primarily responding to key statements and unlocking long-term funding costs [3] - The timing of interest rate cuts may depend on the effectiveness of reducing bank funding costs, particularly through lowering deposit rates, potentially delaying until mid-2026 [3] Group 4: Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) Adjustments - The necessity for RRR cuts is expected to decrease, with only one potential cut of 50 basis points anticipated in 2026, likely occurring in the first quarter [4] - The central bank's motivation for RRR cuts is relatively low due to the opportunity cost of releasing long-term funds and a cautious stance on large-scale long-term funding injections [4] - Government bond purchases may serve as a substitute for RRR cuts, with the first quarter being the most probable window for any RRR adjustments [4]

Core Insights - The report suggests an overweight allocation to large-cap and value styles for December based on quantitative model signals and calendar effects [1][2]. Size and Style Rotation Monthly Strategy - The latest quantitative model signal for the end of November is -0.17, indicating a preference for large-cap stocks. Historically, large-cap stocks have outperformed in December, leading to a recommendation for an overweight allocation in December [1]. - The year-to-date return for the size rotation quantitative model is 24.71%, with an excess return of 1.5% compared to an equal-weight benchmark of 23.21% [1]. - The combined strategy, incorporating subjective views, has yielded a return of 26.1%, with an excess return of 2.89% [1]. Value and Growth Style Rotation Monthly Strategy - The monthly quantitative model signal is -0.33, indicating a preference for value stocks. Historically, value style has slightly outperformed in December, leading to a recommendation for an overweight allocation in December [2]. - The year-to-date return for the value-growth style rotation model is 20.37%, with an excess return of 2.99% compared to an equal-weight benchmark of 16.88% [2]. Style Factor Performance Tracking - Among eight major factors, dividend and quality factors showed high positive returns in November, while large-cap and momentum factors exhibited high negative returns [2]. - For the year, volatility and growth factors had high positive returns, while liquidity and large-cap factors had high negative returns [2]. - In November, residual volatility, short-term reversal, and earnings quality factors had high positive returns, while momentum, profitability, and large-cap factors had high negative returns [2]. Factor Covariance Matrix Update - The report updates the latest factor covariance matrix as of November 28, 2025, which is essential for predicting stock portfolio risks using a multi-factor model [3].

Core Insights - The 2025 Volcano Engine Winter FORCE Conference is scheduled for December 18-19, focusing on Agentic AI reshaping industries, with three major announcements expected: a complete renewal of the Doubao model family, upgrades to Agent development tools, and expansion of the ecosystem [1][2]. Group 1: Doubao Model Updates - The Doubao model 1.6 series will be highlighted, showcasing improvements in reasoning, mathematics, instruction adherence, and Agent capabilities, with a 63% reduction in comprehensive costs compared to Doubao 1.5 [2]. - As of May 2025, the daily token usage for the Doubao model exceeded 16.4 trillion, with a significant increase from 120 billion tokens in May 2024 to over 30 trillion tokens by September 2025, indicating a 253-fold growth [2]. Group 2: Conference Structure and Focus - The conference will feature three main forums and 20 specialized forums, covering topics from AI in finance, education, and automotive sectors to advanced explorations of HiAgent and enterprise-level applications [3]. - The event aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of AI implementation pathways, emphasizing the upgrade of Agent development tools and ecosystem expansion [3].

Group 1 - The medium to long-term outlook indicates that China's economy has significant growth potential, with macroeconomic stability expected by 2025, but structural differentiation will be evident, necessitating policy interventions to address weak domestic demand by 2026 [1] - Asset restructuring is crucial, with inflation expectations playing a vital role in wealth management for residents [2] - Global economic and monetary system restructuring is leading to changes in the pricing framework for assets such as gold, the US dollar, and US Treasury bonds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The retail chain pharmacy industry is experiencing intensified competition due to weakened demand, leading to a gradual supply-side contraction. The operational turning point for leading pharmacies is emerging, with a focus on the growth potential in 2026 through both organic and external expansion [1]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - The recommendation is to maintain an "overweight" rating, focusing on leading chain pharmacies that are expected to benefit from supply-side clearing and demand-side recovery. The retail scale of China's physical pharmacies (including drugs and non-drugs) is projected to reach 611.9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 1.8% [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the industry scale is expected to reach 449 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, but showing signs of recovery with a September scale of 53.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.7% [2]. Group 2: Demand Side Analysis - The demand side is showing weakened consumption, with significant declines in sales of consumer-oriented products like health supplements. However, essential consumer products such as traditional and Western medicines are experiencing a quarter-on-quarter recovery, with a retail scale of 43.7 billion yuan in September 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.9% and a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [3]. - The sales proportion of drugs in pharmacies has increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 81.4%, while the proportion of health supplements has decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8% [3]. Group 3: Supply Side Dynamics - The supply-side clearing is leading to an increase in the concentration of leading chain pharmacies. The number of physical pharmacies reached a new high in 2024, exceeding 700,000, a growth of over 60% since the end of 2014. The average customer service level per store has dropped to about 2,000 people per store [4]. - The number of stores in the industry decreased by 4,000 in Q4 2024 and by 3,000 in Q1 2025, with leading chain pharmacies showing lower closure rates compared to smaller chains, indicating a potential increase in industry concentration [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Leading Pharmacies - Leading chain pharmacies are expected to recover first, with growth driven by both organic and external factors. The recent rise in flu cases is anticipated to boost sales of respiratory-related medications, with flu positivity rates reaching 8.6% in the 47th week, significantly higher than the same period in 2022-2024 [5]. - The current number of direct stores for leading chains is about 10,000, representing only 1.5% of the industry, indicating that the industry is still in the early stages of structural change, with long-term prospects for increased concentration [5].