报告导读： 25Q4 新经济增长中枢抬升，景气线索扩散。 AI 与出海继续推动新兴科技景 气中枢抬升，而顺周期板块多数受益供给受限与下游需求转型带来的涨价，重视电子 / 出 海制造 / 保险等盈利预期上修的低拥挤滞涨板块。 新经济景气中枢上移，盈利改善范围扩散。 2025 年四季度经济转型加快，尽管新旧经济景气分化的结构延续，但新经济景气中枢明显上移，并由 AI 向出 海、资源品、服务消费等更多领域扩散。新兴科技产业链呈现出供需两旺的特征，内部细分涨价赛道明显增多。结合宏观数据，我们提示把握四季度盈利增长 的四个结构特征： 1 ）新兴经济仍是四季度业绩主要高增领域。科技服务业等第三产业用电量在 25Q4 高增，并带动全社会用电增速在 9 月后明显上行，这 与工业增加值下行趋势背离明显，新经济主导并拉动经济复苏； 2 ）中下游制造盈利占比提升。通胀整体改善且新经济成本传导顺畅， CPI-PPI 剪刀差扩 张， PPI 内部中下游价格更强，工业企业利润向 TMT 、装备制造与有色化工等行业集中； 3 ）大中盘业绩增长弹性更大。 PMI 改善，且结构上大型企业景 气占优趋势延续，企业生产经营预期与订单分项改善明显； ...

核心观点：本轮全球宽松周期下，各类资产关联度上升，新任美联储主席的变动有望重塑全球货币政策路径与市场空间。 摘要 ▶ 全球资本市场相关性显著提升 。2024年9月美联储启动降息周期以来，中、欧等主要经济体同步推进，全球流动性宽松格局形成。我们认为这一现象 本质是全球化债，核心逻辑正是通过债务置换逐步降低资金成本，缓解政府债务的利息偿付压力。对于全球市场而言：1）权益市场同步走强，纳斯达克 100、日经225等发达市场指数涨幅居前，上证指数、胡志明指数等新兴市场指数亦表现亮眼，且上行斜率的拐点几乎同步出现；2）贵金属及工业金属价 格同步上涨，金融属性领先实物需求属性扩张。商品市场与权益市场呈现强关联性，宽松交易的定价是核心。 ▶ 美联储决策逐渐透明、可预期，运转机制迭代优化。 近40年以来，历任美联储主席推动改革，主要包括：1）决策由秘密制定转向公开决策，强调利 率政策公布前与市场进行充分沟通。从格林斯潘开始，美联储的利率政策决策便开始有转向公开化、透明化的趋势，此后各位联储主席分别通过不同的方 式进一步促进了市场对于利率政策的消化过程。2）由经验驱动转向数据驱动。自格林斯潘开始，FOMC建立大量经济数据库，以 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the cumulative year-on-year profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 0.6%, with a significant V-shaped rebound in December, showing a 5.3% year-on-year increase. This improvement is attributed to the synergy of volume and price, increased industrial production activity, narrowing decline in PPI, and a substantial recovery in profit margins, along with policy benefits, low base effects, and concentrated year-end order deliveries [1] Summary by Sections Profit Growth and Drivers - The December profit growth was driven by improved industrial production activity and a narrowing decline in PPI, leading to a significant recovery in profit margins [1] - The structural analysis indicates that the profit share of upstream and midstream industries has increased, showing strong recovery, while downstream industries experienced differentiation, with only a few sectors like automotive and food seeing profit contraction [1] Demand and Inventory Management - Companies have begun proactive inventory reduction, leading to an expanded revenue decline in December, indicating that the foundation of terminal demand remains unstable [1] - The future pace of profit recovery will depend on the warming of domestic demand and the continued transmission of policy effects [1]

报告来源 报告导读： 从四季度报底层数据来看，强势板块仍保持稳健经营，可关注弱势项目的筑底 情况。 从四季度财务数据反映的运营情况来看，优势板块业务表现依然稳固，值得留意的是相对薄弱板块的企稳信号。 保障房板块各项经营指标持续小幅向好，少 数市场化项目出现阶段性波动；消费类板块增长较为显著，龙头项目通过改造升级提升了实际可租赁面积，并维持较高出租率，实现了租金与出租面积同步增 长，但也有部分项目受改造进度影响收入指标短期有所回落；产业园区板块继续保持分化态势，厂房类项目整体运行平稳，部分研发办公类项目经营下滑的速 度有所减缓，正从 " 量价双降 " 转向 " 以价换量 " ，且年末租金回收情况有所改善，不过仍有部分项目面临持续的经营压力；物流仓储板块整体亦存在一定 挑战，以价换量现象较为常见，但波动幅度有限，整体处于可控范围；市政环保领域中，中航首钢绿能项目表现亮眼，济南能源的供热面积也实现小幅增长； 高速公路与能源板块依旧呈现较大波动，需注意区分其短期扰动因素与长期趋势影响。 二级市场方面， 2026 年以来 REITs 市场实现"二连跳"。 实际上，如果结合 2025 年 12 月下旬来看的话实现"三连跳 ...

查看完整回放 ▼ 关联阅读 ▼ 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 国泰海通·联合电话会｜商业航天的星辰大海 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a decline in trading heat for hot themes, with commercial aerospace, resource products, and building materials leading the market. The focus of incremental policies is on expanding domestic demand and fostering new technological momentum, particularly in urban renewal, commercial aerospace, domestic computing power, and new power grids [1]. Group 1: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal is expected to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand, with 60,015 urban renewal projects planned nationwide in 2024, involving a total investment of 2.9 trillion yuan. Key components include the renovation of old residential areas, urban villages, and underground pipeline upgrades [2]. Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - Elon Musk predicts that space will become the most cost-effective location for deploying AI data centers within 2-3 years, with the potential for launch costs to drop by 100 times if the Starship achieves full reusability. China aims to establish a leading space computing center by 2030, addressing high energy consumption and carbon emissions from ground data centers [3]. Group 3: Domestic Computing Power - TSMC's capital expenditure is expected to exceed expectations, boosting demand in the semiconductor advanced manufacturing sector. The company anticipates a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit by Q4 2025, with capital expenditures potentially reaching $56 billion in 2026, a 37% increase from 2025 [4]. Group 4: New Power Grid - The State Grid plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on the construction of a new power system. The share of non-fossil energy consumption is projected to reach 20% by 2025 and 25% by 2030 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of commercial aerospace presents significant opportunities for space photovoltaics, as solar energy is the only reliable energy source in this sector, with solar irradiance in space being 5-10 times stronger than on Earth, leading to a substantial increase in power generation [2]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - The growth of commercial aerospace will benefit space photovoltaics, with companies leveraging cost and technological advantages in silicon and perovskite technologies for energy supply in space data centers [2]. - The current mainstream technology for space energy is gallium arsenide, but the cost and efficiency of silicon and perovskite technologies are improving, making them viable alternatives [2]. - The economic viability of developing space data centers will be crucial, with silicon components showing significant manufacturing cost advantages and perovskite components offering benefits in reducing launch costs due to their power-to-weight ratio [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Elon Musk's goal of deploying 100GW of AI computing power in space annually could lead to a surge in satellite demand, with an estimated increase of 680,000 satellites per year if this target is met, compared to the current global satellite inventory of just over 10,000 [3].

1月23日，" 2026居民端财富管理新趋势——国泰海通非银&银行&地产1月专题论坛"在上海举办， 论坛吸引逾百位机构投资者参与。 上海秩汇科技有限公司创 始人 徐 海宁、 浦发银行财富管理部 金总、 冰山指数创始人 李彦国分别就 居民财富管理新趋势、2026年房价趋势 等议题带来精彩演讲。国泰海通非银、银 行、地产团队带来最新研究观点分享。以下为部分嘉宾的观点集锦： 2026房价矛在哪里？ 涂力磊-国泰海通证券研究所所长助理、先进制造组长、房地产首席分析师、中小市值与创新股权联席首席分析师 十四五和十五五期间，党中央对地产行业发展要求，房地产行业总量所处阶段存在明显差异。房地产行业高质量发展要求的提出，从防风险、提品质、 促转型等多维度为行业提供纲领性指引。我们认为未来五年行业将步入提质增效发展新阶段，看好行业迈入格局和盈利稳定，蓝筹基本面持续优化阶 段。 我们认为，短期开发板块延续需求端不适应供需关系的限制政策继续松绑，与此同时叠加信贷支持。开发板块长期落实以需求定供给的大方针。土地供 给以人定房，保障性住房确保民生兜底，租赁市场推动机构化转型升级。房屋品质升级为核心任务，新建设立好房标准，改造推进四好建 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The mechanical equipment index increased by 3.19% during the week of January 19-23, 2026 [1] - SpaceX and Tesla plan to achieve an annual solar manufacturing capacity of 100GW within three years, with a focus on space as a key application scenario [2] - The commercialization of Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is progressing, with capabilities expected to expand significantly by the end of 2026 and 2027 [1][2] Group 2: Industry Developments - The third Beijing Commercial Aerospace Industry High-Quality Development Promotion Conference is set to take place, highlighting local efforts to enhance capabilities in research, manufacturing, and support services for commercial aerospace [3] - The "Yizhuang Arrow" is projected to complete 24 launches and carry over 160 satellites in 2025, with the aerospace industry revenue exceeding 32 billion yuan [3] - The conference will focus on various technical directions such as launch vehicles and space infrastructure, indicating a shift in commercial aerospace development from "engineering validation" to "scale delivery and industrial collaboration" [3]

投资建议： 反内卷大势所趋，锂电材料近年来业绩疲软资产负债率高企，相较于持续增长的需求材料行业的供给相对刚性，重视材料环节头部公司盈利非线 性增长的可能性。方向上，建议关注先"锂"后"重"：锂相关—磷酸铁锂、碳酸锂（有色组覆盖）、六氟磷酸锂、铝箔（受益锂钠电池成本收敛），重资产相 关—隔膜。同时看好供不应求和顺价能力强的电池龙头。 报告导读： 反内卷大势所趋，锂电材料近年来业绩疲软资产负债率高企，相较于持续增长 的需求材料行业的供给相对刚性，看好锂电材料头部公司盈利非线性增长的可能性。 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 新能源车稳健扩容，储能爆发式增长。 1 ）新能源车： EVTank 数据， 2025 年全球新能源车销量达到 2354.2 万辆，同比增长 29.1% ，其 ...