Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increase in long-term local government bond issuance due to the extension of special refinancing bond terms, with the average issuance term for special refinancing bonds increasing by 10.3 years from 2023 to 2025 [1] - In 2025, the average issuance term for special refinancing bonds is projected to be 18.9 years, with over half of the bonds having terms exceeding 25 years, particularly concentrated in key provinces [1] - The average issuance term for new bonds in 2025 is expected to be 16.8 years, showing little change over the past three years, but with significant variation among provinces [1] Group 2 - The issuance plan for local government bonds in Q1 2026 indicates a focus on refinancing bonds, with a total planned issuance amount of 1.5934 trillion yuan, including 116.4 billion yuan in new general bonds and 483.5 billion yuan in new special bonds [2] - The refinancing ratio for local government bonds from 2020 to 2025 has remained stable, with the principal repayment ratio consistently between 10% and 15% [2] - The issuance of local government bonds in 2026 is expected to balance issuance costs and repayment pressures, with a potential reduction in issuance terms compared to 2024 and 2025 [2] Group 3 - The peak issuance of new local government bonds in 2026 is anticipated to occur in the second and third quarters, with Q1 primarily focused on refinancing bonds [3] - Historical data suggests that during peak issuance months, the scale may reach 800 to 1,000 billion yuan, with 90% of the annual issuance typically completed by the end of September [3] - The fourth quarter will mainly focus on the remaining issuance quotas and balances from previous years, with specific amounts of 400 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan from 2024 and 2025, respectively [3]

Group 1: Waterproof Industry Insights - The waterproof industry has experienced the most severe clearing among consumer building materials, with the top four companies expected to capture nearly 50% market share by 2024 [3][4] - The industry's profitability is at a bottom position, with leading companies nearing breakeven in B-end engineering business, indicating potential for recovery in 2026 as price stabilization and recovery attempts begin [3][4] - The rapid increase in industry concentration reduces unnecessary price competition and enhances the feasibility of price increases among leading firms [4] Group 2: Future Profitability and Market Dynamics - In 2026, the industry is expected to continue attempts at price recovery, supported by lower asphalt prices at the beginning of the year, which will aid in profitability improvement [5] - The improvement in competition dynamics is anticipated to positively impact sales expenses, employee numbers, and accounts receivable turnover days for major companies [5] - Major companies are diversifying their business expansion beyond traditional domestic waterproof engineering, which may further enhance their market position [5] Group 3: Aviation Industry Outlook - The Chinese civil aviation sector is projected to continue recovering in 2025, with passenger traffic expected to grow by 5-6%, leading to a significant reduction in losses and potential profitability [10] - The supply side is entering a low-growth phase, with fleet size expected to increase by approximately 3.7% by November 2025, while passenger load factors are anticipated to reach historical highs [10][11] - The industry is expected to experience a "super cycle" starting in 2026, driven by steady demand growth and a recovery in customer structure, which will support price and profitability increases [12]

Core Viewpoint - The waterproofing industry is experiencing significant consolidation, leading to a potential recovery in pricing strategies and profitability by 2026, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the industry [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The waterproofing industry has undergone the most severe clearing among consumer building materials, with the top four companies expected to capture nearly 50% market share by 2024 [2]. - The industry's high exposure to credit risk from accounts receivable has led to the exit of many small enterprises, while the demand decline has been more pronounced due to the high proportion of construction activity [2]. - Intense price competition in recent years has contributed to the industry's challenges, but the increasing concentration of market share among leading firms may reduce the necessity for further price competition [2]. Group 2: Pricing and Profitability - The leading companies in the waterproofing sector have begun attempts to raise prices starting in 2025, indicating a collective shift in operational strategies [3]. - Although the impact of price increases on gross margins was not immediately evident in the third-quarter reports of 2025, there is a clear intent among leading firms to improve profitability [3]. - The low asphalt prices at the beginning of 2025 provide a favorable foundation for profitability recovery in 2026, with a focus on stable pricing strategies to enhance gross margins [3]. Group 3: Operational Improvements - The easing of competition is expected to positively affect sales expenses, employee numbers, and accounts receivable turnover for major companies in the industry [3]. - The primary companies are diversifying their business expansion beyond traditional domestic waterproofing projects, which may further enhance operational efficiency and financial performance [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates as anticipated and may exceed expectations in expanding its balance sheet, which could reduce policy uncertainty and market volatility for investors, presenting opportunities in global equities and commodities. The recommendation is to overweight AH shares and US stocks, as well as gold and industrial commodities by January 2026 [1]. Group 1: Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) - The company has developed an "all-weather" asset allocation framework consisting of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments to guide investment decisions [1]. - SAA aims to diversify macro risks and set long-term allocation benchmarks to ensure portfolio stability [1]. Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) - TAA employs quantitative methods to identify assets with superior short-term risk-return characteristics and adjusts portfolio weights accordingly to enhance returns [1]. Group 3: Equity Allocation - The company is relatively optimistic about equities, recommending a 47.50% equity allocation for January 2026, with specific allocations: 10.00% to A-shares, 10.00% to Hong Kong stocks, 17.50% to US stocks, 2.50% to European stocks, 5.00% to Japanese stocks, and 2.50% to Indian stocks [2]. - Factors supporting Chinese equity performance include an upcoming economic work conference, expected expansion of the fiscal deficit, and a more proactive economic policy [2]. - The "Goldilocks" scenario is emerging, favoring US stock performance, with resilient economic conditions and decreasing inflationary pressures supporting corporate earnings expectations [2]. Group 4: Bond Allocation - The company maintains a neutral stance on bonds, recommending a 37.50% bond allocation for January 2026, with allocations: 10.00% to long-term government bonds, 10.00% to short-term government bonds, 7.50% to long-term US Treasuries, and 10.00% to short-term US Treasuries [3]. - The bond market may see renewed interest as risk appetite increases, despite existing imbalances in financing demand and credit supply [3]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious monetary policy guidance suggests that US Treasury yields may fluctuate, with a potential moderate decline in yield levels [3]. Group 5: Commodity Allocation - The company is optimistic about commodities, recommending a 15.00% commodity allocation for January 2026, with allocations: 8.00% to gold, 2.00% to oil, and 5.00% to industrial commodities [4]. - Gold is recommended for overweighting due to its strong resilience and safe-haven attributes amid rising geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing central bank purchases [4]. - Industrial commodities are expected to benefit from improved demand forecasts and sustained trading momentum, particularly driven by sectors like construction, electric grids, and electric vehicles [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for innovation and steady development of the digital renminbi, addressing four major challenges faced by digital payment tools in relation to central bank monetary control, financial disintermediation, responsibilities of commercial banks, and the centralized management of bank accounts versus the decentralized nature of blockchain technology [1][2]. Summary by Sections Digital Renminbi Development - The digital renminbi has achieved significant progress in its pilot phase, with a total of 3.48 billion transactions amounting to 16.7 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025 [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to launch a 2.0 version of the digital renminbi on January 1, 2026, to address emerging challenges and enhance the management service system [2]. Challenges and Policy Recommendations - Four main challenges identified include: 1. The impact of new "currency" payment tools on traditional frameworks. 2. Financial disintermediation risks due to digital cash circulation outside the banking system. 3. Ambiguities in the responsibilities of commercial banks regarding digital currency. 4. Compatibility issues between centralized account management and decentralized systems [2]. - Proposed policy measures include: 1. A dual-layer operational structure to strengthen the development direction of the digital renminbi. 2. Classifying the digital renminbi as a liability of commercial banks, integrating it into the reserve and deposit insurance systems to mitigate disintermediation risks [2]. 3. Clarifying the responsibilities of banks, allowing them to pay interest on digital currency balances [2]. 4. Implementing a hybrid architecture combining account systems, currency strings, and smart contracts to leverage blockchain technology [2]. Transition to Deposit Currency - The digital renminbi is transitioning from a "legal currency" to a "deposit currency," enhancing its compatibility with the existing financial system and expanding the operational space for financial institutions [3]. - This transition aims to improve monetary circulation efficiency, stabilize the financial system, and enhance service capabilities for the real economy, potentially increasing transaction volumes in broader scenarios [3].

报告导读： 昇腾多模态推理加速套件正式开源，联合中科弘云发布 AI 推理加速联合解决 方案，加速昇腾芯片渗透率增长，昇腾链预计受益。 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 风险提示。 国产算力芯片需求增长不及预期；先进制程产能扩产不及预期。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 昇腾推理加速套件正式开源，昇腾芯片渗透加速；报告日期：2025.12.29 报告作者： 舒迪（分析师），登记编号：S0880521070002 段笑南（研究助理），登记编号：S0880124070028 重要提醒 投资建议。 根据 CNMO 科技， 2025 年 12 月 19 日华 为 昇 腾 多模态推理加速套件 MindIE SD 项目已正式开源，可有效提升推理效率 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant developments in the controlled nuclear fusion sector, including increased procurement and bidding activities, the upcoming EU fusion strategy, and advancements in fusion laser technology [1][3][4] Group 2 - The procurement demand in the controlled nuclear fusion industry is on the rise, with recent bids primarily focused on essential components such as power supplies and converters, indicating a notable acceleration in industry contracts [2] - The EU's first fusion strategy is set to be released, with a high-level hearing scheduled for January 27, 2026, aimed at discussing the transition from political support to the industrialization of fusion energy [3] - The company "Zero Point Energy," associated with Peking University alumni, has successfully completed an angel round financing exceeding 50 million yuan, which will support the experimental validation of its new fusion technology route [3] - A strategic collaboration named "ICONIC-FL" has been initiated between the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Fraunhofer Institute for Laser Technology to advance inertial confinement fusion laser technology from the laboratory to industrial application [4] - The JT-60SA device has made progress with the successful manufacturing of fast plasma position control coils, which are crucial for upcoming plasma heating experiments and provide important technical validation for the ITER project [4]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, with COMEX gold surpassing $4500 per ounce, while silver prices surged due to supply shortage expectations, breaking through $79 per ounce [1] - Platinum prices are increasing due to persistent supply-demand gaps, while palladium prices are experiencing steady growth with significant fluctuations [1] - By 2026, factors such as central bank gold purchases, rising gold ETF holdings, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside a weakening dollar index, are expected to support gold prices [1] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices on the Shanghai exchange have surpassed 100,000 yuan, reaching a historical high due to supply disruptions and low inventory levels in non-US regions [2] - Labor negotiations at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile have raised concerns about copper supply for 2026, while the National Development and Reform Commission encourages mergers among major copper smelting enterprises [2] - Market sentiment and changes in futures microstructure will be crucial for future price movements [2] Group 3: Aluminum - Aluminum prices have reached new highs amid a favorable macroeconomic environment, although the short-term outlook shows weakening fundamentals [2] - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 60.8%, influenced by environmental production restrictions and high aluminum prices [2] - The market is expected to experience a tug-of-war between macroeconomic benefits and weak fundamentals, leading to high volatility in aluminum prices [2] Group 4: Energy Metals - Lithium demand is showing signs of weakening, while production is increasing, leading to a decrease in inventory levels [3] - There are uncertainties regarding the resumption of production at key mines in Jiangxi, which could impact market expectations for lithium supply [3] - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight raw material supply, while downstream demand is cautious, with companies extending their operations into integrated cost advantages [3] Group 5: Rare Earths - Light rare earth prices are recovering, while medium and heavy rare earth prices are maintaining a downward trend [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a moderate improvement in consumption, with service consumption recovering ahead of the holiday, as evidenced by increased subway passenger flow in 18 cities and a positive shift in the Hainan tourism price index year-on-year [1] - In terms of investment, the issuance of special bonds has concluded, leading to an increase in physical workload, with asphalt operating rates rebounding and continuous improvement in building materials data [1] - The real estate sector shows a seasonal recovery in sales, with an increase in the proportion of second-hand housing, although overall prices and premiums remain low [1] Group 2 - In foreign trade, there is a divergence between rising domestic export freight rates and a decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [1] - Production continues to show differentiation, with emerging industries such as polyester, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic chains demonstrating strong resilience, while traditional cyclical industries like steel and some chemicals are experiencing a downturn [1] - Inventory levels are decreasing for coal and building materials, while PTA continues to deplete inventory and polyester shows a slight accumulation [1] Group 3 - Industrial product prices are generally rebounding, with oil and non-ferrous metals experiencing a rebound, and the South China index rising [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows structural differentiation, with food prices fluctuating [1] - In terms of liquidity, funding rates have shown slight fluctuations, and the renminbi continues to strengthen due to a weaker dollar and increased demand for foreign exchange settlements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive outlook on the fixed income investment landscape for 2026, highlighting key changes in interest rate expectations, monetary policy, and investment strategies across various debt instruments [2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The article discusses the shift in low interest rate expectations, indicating a transition phase for the fixed income market as it prepares for new dynamics in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - It outlines the reconstruction of monetary policy frameworks, focusing on the implications of the Japanese yield curve and easing models for future investments [2]. Group 3: Timeframe for Deposit Rates - The article elaborates on the timeline for deposit rates to decrease, analyzing four critical factors that will influence this trend [2]. Group 4: Credit Bond Investment Strategy - It emphasizes the importance of selecting specific credit bonds, focusing on interest rates and trading opportunities as part of the investment strategy for 2026 [2]. Group 5: Bank Debt Strategy - The strategy for bank perpetual bonds is highlighted, advocating for a focus on stability while balancing short-term and long-term investments [2]. Group 6: Government Bond Futures Strategy - The article provides insights into the strategy for government bond futures, indicating potential market movements and investment opportunities [2]. Group 7: Convertible Bond Strategy - It discusses the need for a proactive approach in selecting individual convertible bonds, emphasizing the importance of market conditions [2]. Group 8: REITs Strategy - The article concludes with a positive outlook for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in 2026, suggesting a renewed journey in this sector [2].