Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a marginal improvement in real estate sales, while durable goods consumption shows signs of weakness, indicating a mixed economic outlook in various sectors [2][4]. Group 1: Real Estate and Construction - New home sales in major cities have shown a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with first-tier cities experiencing a decline of 6.8%, while second and third-tier cities saw increases of 8.2% and 11.4% respectively [5]. - Despite the improvement in real estate sales, the impact on construction starts remains weak, and infrastructure demand continues to be subdued, leading to a decline in demand for construction materials [2][4]. Group 2: Consumer Durables - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 4.6% year-on-year in August 2025, but the growth rate has significantly slowed down due to a high base from the previous year [5]. - The service consumption sector has shown a decline, with a notable drop in movie box office revenues by 51% week-on-week during the back-to-school period [5]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Technology - The construction demand remains weak, affecting the construction industry, while steel prices have slightly increased due to environmental production limits, and cement prices continue to decline [6]. - Global semiconductor sales have seen a robust year-on-year growth of 20.6% in July 2025, driven by strong demand in AI capital expenditures [6]. Group 4: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport demand has decreased significantly week-on-week, with a 17.6% drop in the migration scale index, although it remains up 5% year-on-year [7]. - Freight logistics have also shown a decline, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume down by 1.0% and 1.2% respectively week-on-week [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts on various asset classes, highlighting the differences between "relief" and "preventive" rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Stock Market - Equity assets tend to perform better during preventive rate cuts, while they are likely to decline during relief rate cuts [1][2] - The winning rate of equities increases one month after preventive rate cuts, with performance during relief cuts being closely tied to fundamental recovery [2] Group 2: Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields are more likely to decline during relief rate cuts, while their behavior during preventive cuts is uncertain [1][2] - After rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields typically decrease, and domestic bond yields also tend to drop in the short term, with no clear pattern observed in German or Japanese bonds [2] Group 3: Currency Market - The dollar's performance is mixed in the early stages of rate cuts, but tends to depreciate two to three months after relief cuts, while it may appreciate during preventive cuts [1][2] - The Chinese yuan shows relative independence in its movements compared to the dollar, while the euro and yen generally appreciate [2] Group 4: Commodity Market - Gold tends to have a higher average increase during preventive rate cuts, and its price elasticity is greater during relief rate cuts [1][2] - The relationship between oil prices and interest rate cuts is weak, as oil prices are more influenced by supply and demand dynamics [1][2]

报告导读： 地产政策优化，楼市景气边际改善；耐用品增长乏力，受高基数影响， 8 月 乘用车零售增速继续放缓，开学周服务景气有所回落；降息预期提升，金价大幅上涨。 地产销售边际改善，耐用品增长乏力。 上周（ 09.01-09.07 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）北上深等多地优化地产政策后，国内新房销售同比增速 延续改善，一线城市地产销售降幅继续收窄，楼市景气边际改善；但楼市的改善对地产开工影响微弱，且基建需求仍偏弱，建筑资源品需求仍在磨底，受益于 环保限产的钢铁价格小幅上涨，水泥价格仍明显下滑。 2 ）乘用车零售销量延续增长，但 24 年同期高基数影响下，增速明显放缓，耐用品景气持续性有待 观察；开学周，服务消费景气继续回落，电影票房环比大幅下滑，客运需求环比下降，但同比仍偏强。 3 ）汽车钢胎、 PTA/ 涤纶、钢厂高炉开工率环比下 降，或反映反内卷推行提高企业限产意愿，但工业品价格端仍未出现明显改善信号；受益于美联储降息预期提升，金价大幅上涨。 下游消费：一线城市地产销售降幅收窄，乘用车零售增速回落。 1 ）地产： 30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比 +4.4% 。其中一线 / 二线 / 三线城市商品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the integration of AI and professional research to enhance investment research efficiency, aiming to create a new benchmark for intelligent ecological investment research [3]. Data and Technology Upgrade - The platform processes over ten million data points daily, integrating various data sources including news, research reports, macroeconomic indicators, and company data [4]. - The research capabilities include over 250,000 research reports and 3.73 million economic indicators, covering all historical reports from Guotai Junan [6]. Industry Research - The platform features a comprehensive industry chain map that supports digital transformation in traditional industries, enhancing research efficiency [7]. - It includes insights into eight emerging industries such as new energy, advanced equipment, and artificial intelligence, among others [9]. Fund Evaluation and Research - The platform has launched a robust public fund evaluation and research tool, providing in-depth analysis and performance comparison of various funds [10][11]. - It offers a one-stop solution for fund holding analysis, multi-dimensional performance analysis, and fund manager profiling [14]. Awards and Recognition - The platform has received multiple awards, including the Excellent Project Award for Cloud Applications and the Financial Technology Development Award from the People's Bank of China [16][18].

报告导读： 反内卷政策效果在 PPI 中初步显现，大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游行业的价 格修复，传导效果较为明显。猪周期拖累 CPI 再次转负，但服务价格韧性，消费价格仍处 于稳步回升的通道。 8 月 CPI 同比增速 -0.4% ，环比 0.0% ； PPI 同比增速 -2.9% ，环比回升至 0.0% 。 8 月通胀保持稳步修复。在猪周期影响下，食品价格对 CPI 形成 主要拖累，但核心服务价格保持韧性，核心 CPI 同比大幅回升。反内卷政策效果在 8 月 PPI 数据已有所显现，采掘工业价格动能回正，黑色链条也出现止跌 回稳的迹象，同时大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游加工业，后续观察涨价的持续性与弹性。 CPI ：服务表现韧性，食品形成拖累 PPI ：反内卷政策效果初步显现 反内卷政策效果将持续释放。 与 2015 年供给侧改革不同，本轮反内卷政策行动聚焦中下游行业"羊群投资"和盲目扩张造成的产能过剩，政策更加注重指引 企业通过规范竞争淘汰产能，并强化监督地方政府的投资推广行为，而非简单通过行政干预快速达到去产能的目的。这使得本轮价格回升的动能或稍显迟缓， 但基础却更加牢固。 风险提示： 地产尾部压力依然存在、 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of quality improvement in urban development to stabilize the market and build confidence through good housing and pricing strategies [3][7]. - The report highlights the successful entry of state-owned enterprises in Quzhou, indicating a significant turnaround in business operations [3][7]. - The annual representative work focuses on innovative strategies while maintaining core values, suggesting a balance between tradition and innovation in the industry [3]. Group 2 - The report is part of a broader research framework aimed at understanding urban development and its implications for investment opportunities [6][7]. - The insights are derived from a detailed analysis of the urban work conference, which outlines the potential for asset updates and acquisitions in the sector [7].

非息收入 / 金融投资收入的持续性如何？非息收入总量占比仍在提升， 在息差承压背景下， 2025 年上半年银行投资收益占营业收入的比重逐步提升。其中 国有大行平均为 7.7% ，股份行和城商行均在 18% 左右，较 2024 年同期提升 2-3 个百分点，农商行则从 28% 的高位边际下降至 25% ，但头部农商行 占比由 20% 升至 25% 。 OCI 账户浮盈消耗情况如何？浮盈加速兑现。 一方面从公允价值变动科目看，各类型银行该科目均较 2024 年同期显著下降；另 一方面从 OCI 账户情况来看，尽管 2025 年上半年 OCI 浮盈的发生额较 2024 年全年下降明显且整体呈负，但浮盈兑现的规模与 2024 年全年接近。 银行资产质量有何变化？尾部农商行整体不良率持续抬升，而中大型银行不良率稳步下行。 纳入关注类贷款后，银行关注类与不良贷款合计率的波动性有所 提升，其中上市农商行的关注类与不良贷款合计率趋势与整体农商行更趋一致。 银行拨备计提情况如何？ 2025 年上半年各类银行拨备计提力度呈现分化， 而拨备率普遍下行， 反映银行在经营压力下通过拨备计提节奏调整影响当期利润。 银行资本充足率有何新变 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is showing various structural highlights in the 2025 mid-year report, with multinational expansion and high-end demand significantly contributing to profitability. Different sub-industries in the domestic market are reaching a consensus on improving profitability, with the pace of profitability recovery potentially outpacing revenue recovery [1]. Group 1: Cement Sector - The cement sector has demonstrated pricing elasticity, with overseas profitability advantages being strong. In Q2 2025, the profitability of the cement industry showed a pattern of high-to-low within the quarter, with April and May continuing the price advantages and raw material cost reductions from Q1, contributing to a year-on-year increase in profitability [2]. - Starting in June, supply-demand pressures increased, leading to a retraction in profitability, but it is confirmed that 2024 is likely the bottom for profit per ton, with further downward pressure being difficult [2]. - The focus on limiting overproduction remains crucial for improving supply-demand dynamics, and there is an expectation for improved shareholder returns driven by industry equity incentives [2]. Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The profitability recovery in the consumer building materials sector is showing higher elasticity compared to revenue elasticity. In Q2, the revenue growth rate for this sector remained similar to Q1, with expectations that the revenue growth bottomed out in Q3 2024 [3]. - The industry has generally seen some recovery, with price disadvantages year-on-year being a core factor affecting revenue appearance. However, entering Q3, a significant recovery is anticipated due to base effects [3]. - Price recovery and structural upgrades in the coatings and waterproofing sectors are leading the way, while personnel and cost optimizations have significantly improved profitability in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: Glass and Fiberglass - In the fiberglass sector, high-end demand from wind power and thermoplastics is supporting continuous improvement in net profit per ton for leading companies. The demand trend for AI in electronic fabrics is expected to drive both volume and price increases [4]. - The structural upgrade and demand expansion in the specialty electronic fabric sector remain a certain trend, with leading companies deepening their participation [4]. - In the glass sector, the float glass market is experiencing price stabilization amid supply-demand stalemate, while photovoltaic glass has seen slight price rebounds following self-regulated production cuts during extreme losses [4].

报告导读： 当前家具龙头企业估值处于历史区间底部，或受益于地产数据及政策，边际转 好。家具企业业绩仍有支撑。同时红利属性愈发突出。 维持增持评级。 当前行业仍有一定外界压力的背景下，龙头企业纷纷发力大家居、扩品类，同时布局家装、社区店、线上引流等多种获客方式，进一步强化 对终端客户的触达。利润端，龙头企业则有望通过更为较强的上游议价能力、突出的柔性制造能力、出色的费用控制力，实现降本增效，获得更为客观的盈利 水平。 地产 & 刺激消费政策频出。 地方房地产政策主要方向为调减限制性措施等。 8 月 8 日，北京市优化房地产政策，具体包括五环以外不再限制购房套数 / 公 积金优化首套房认定标准 / 更好促进产城融合职住平衡等。 8 月 25 日上海发布优化调整本市房地产政策措施，明确放宽外环外套数限制 / 统一单身与家庭 购房标准 / 优化公积金政策 / 调整信贷政策等。另外，苏州自 8 月 26 日起，取消苏州市区范围内新建商品住房取得不动产权登记证书满 2 年方可转让的限 制措施（有特殊限制转让要求的住房除外）； 9 月 1 日，南昌市住房和城乡建设局发布《关于优化新建商品房预售监管资金释放节点的通知》，以保 ...

报告导读： 上周新兴市场表现占优，成交趋弱，板块上医药表现最佳。 8 月非农数据大 幅低于预期，引发 9 月降息预期再度升温，市场预期联储年内降息次数抬升至 2.8 次左右 。 此外， 上周港股盈利预期受可选消费板块拖累下修，美股科技盈利预期续升。 市场表现：上周新兴市场表现占优。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 +0.4% ，其中 MSCI 发达 +0.3% 、 MSCI 新兴 +1.3% 。债市方面，美国 10Y 国债利率大幅 下行。大宗方面，黄金涨幅居前。汇率方面，美元贬，英镑平，日元贬，人民币平。分板块看，上周全球医药板块普涨，港股材料 + 可选消费涨幅居前，欧 美股市通讯表现较优。 交投情绪：上周全球股市成交普降，港股美股波动率下降。 从成交量 / 成交额看，上周全球股市成交普遍下降。从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比上 升、处历史高位，美股投资者情绪下降、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上周港股 / 美股波动率下降，欧股 / 日股波动率上升。从估值看，上周发达市场、新 兴市场整体估值均较前周提升。 盈利预期：上周港股盈利预期继续下修。 横向对比来看，上周日股 2025 年盈利预期边际变化表现最优，欧股、美股 ...