Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metal prices continue to rise due to geopolitical events in North America, increasing investor concerns over the US dollar and treasury bonds, benefiting from dollar depreciation and safe-haven demand [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, central bank gold purchases and the increase in gold ETF holdings are expected to support gold prices [1] - For silver, the London silver leasing rate has decreased, but US silver inventory is declining rapidly [1] Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to a "hard shortage" and "soft coercion," with supply disruptions from strikes in Chile affecting major copper mines [2] - The market is also reacting to potential changes in US monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate expectations [2] - Aluminum prices are maintaining high levels due to strong macroeconomic performance, with daily production increasing from new projects in China and Indonesia [2] Group 3: Energy Metals and Rare Earths - Lithium production is experiencing seasonal declines, with continuous inventory depletion, while battery product export tax rebates are expected to decrease, potentially front-loading battery demand [3] - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supply, while cobalt companies are extending their reach into downstream electric new energy sectors [3] - Rare earth prices have slightly retreated, but overall market sentiment is stabilizing, with limited downside potential for prices [3] Group 4: Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are reaching new highs, supported by extreme tightness in supply, with strategic value being reassessed due to its applications in defense and high-end manufacturing [3] - Uranium supply remains rigid, and the development of nuclear power is expected to create a persistent supply-demand gap, leading to potential price increases [3]

Group 1: Real Estate Industry Insights - The real estate industry is entering a new phase of quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, with a focus on risk prevention, quality improvement, and transformation [4] - The short-term development sector will continue to see policy easing to address supply-demand mismatches, supported by credit [4] - The emphasis will be on upgrading housing quality and establishing standards for new constructions, while ensuring the safety of the entire lifecycle of housing [4] Group 2: Banking Sector Trends - The trend of "deposit migration" continues, primarily affecting 2-3 year fixed deposits, while 1-year deposits remain stable [6] - Credit growth is expected to remain similar to 2025, with a slight decline in growth rate, primarily focused on corporate lending [6] - Net interest income growth is anticipated to improve due to a significant narrowing of interest margins, with most large banks experiencing a decline of less than 10 basis points [6] Group 3: Non-Bank Financial Sector Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the non-bank financial sector are centered around three main themes: wealth management related to financial technology and brokerage firms, valuation recovery in the insurance sector due to stable interest rates, and the expansion of digital RMB [9] - The retail business is expected to have a competitive advantage, benefiting from the entry of resident funds into the market in a low-interest-rate environment [9] - The digital RMB is supported by national development initiatives, which will drive upgrades in banking systems and payment terminals, increasing service fees in the banking IT and third-party payment sectors [9]

2024年底，国泰海通首席策略方奕提出"迈向'转型牛'"，2025年中再提"看好中国'转型 牛'"。上证指数在2025年站上4000点，不仅是10年来的新高，也是国泰海通去年的重要 策略研判，中国"转型牛"不断深入人心。站在2026年初，公司再次专访首席策略方奕， 他认为当"转型牛"逐步形成共识，展望2026年，将会是"远望又新峰"。 中国"转型牛"的空间还很大，改革和转型是最大的风口。 2024年924大转折与2025中美 交锋，市场关于"内忧"与"外患"的担心得以放下，这是市场得以重估的重要前提。当中国 社会对外更自信/对内更稳定/资产贬值走向结束， 资本市场就具备了凝聚社会共识和资 本的能力，这是过去所没有的变化， 也是2026开年4万亿成交的基础。中国市场站在大 发展的扩张性周期，也具有了牛市根基。 中国的刚兑打破， 无风险收益下沉 ； 资本市场改革 ，提振社会关于中国资产/市场的价 值观念与风险认识；传统逐步企稳与新技术趋势涌现， 经济社会发展不确定性降低 ；以 上三点构成了中国"转型牛"远望又新峰向上的关键动力。展望投资机会，中国市场的重估 将是广泛的，科技与非科技都有机会，但杠铃策略将走向质量成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market perspective suggests that the appreciation of the RMB and increased foreign exchange settlement by enterprises could lead to bank balance sheet expansion, thereby aiding interbank liquidity. However, the reality is that while the RMB appreciates and enterprises increase settlement, the central bank does not purchase foreign exchange, which may tighten interbank liquidity instead [1][6]. Group 1: Impact of RMB Appreciation on Interbank Liquidity - The appreciation of the RMB and increased foreign exchange settlement does not automatically translate to an increase in base currency supply, as the central bank's foreign exchange reserves have not increased despite a significant surplus in bank foreign exchange settlements [2][8]. - In December 2025, the bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus reached a historical high of 999 billion USD, with the settlement rate rising by 7 percentage points to 69%, indicating strong market sentiment towards the RMB [7][9]. - The process of foreign exchange settlement involves converting domestic RMB assets into foreign currency assets, which consumes internal RMB reserves, thus not necessarily leading to liquidity expansion [10]. Group 2: Central Bank's Role in Liquidity Management - The key factor for whether interbank liquidity will tighten alongside RMB appreciation in 2026 lies in the central bank's willingness to increase base currency supply through various measures such as reverse repos, MLF, and bond purchases [4][11]. - The central bank's actions to maintain liquidity are crucial for stabilizing the RMB exchange rate and supporting economic growth, especially in light of government bond issuance [11][12]. - The central bank's ability to smooth out funding fluctuations has been enhanced, and it is expected to continue providing liquidity support, which may keep interbank rates low [12].

【宏观】美元资产的"双击时刻" 美元资产迎来"双击时刻"： 特朗普针对格陵兰岛的言论和关税威胁，以及高市早苗宣布提前解散众议院后引来的日债抛售，使得美元资产迎来信用破裂和流 动性抽离的"双击时刻"。 特朗普针对格陵兰岛的言论和关税威胁后，美元信用破裂交易重现。 特朗普把格陵兰议题抬到"国家安全与主权"的高度，同时对欧洲盟友抛出加征关税的威 胁，美股、债、汇一度出现三杀，美元与美债再次走出"死亡交叉"，黄金、白银避险资产走强，加密货币明显承压。 高市早苗宣布提前解散众议院后引来的一轮日债抛售，市场重燃套息交易反转的担忧。 日本长端国债在财政与供需担忧下出现近似"特拉斯时刻"的抛售潮， 市场甚至称之为"高市时刻"。日元资产作为全球套息交易的重要负债端，日债利率快速大幅上行必然导致融资套利链条面临挤压，从而全球风险资产被迫降杠 杆，同时也会影响美债等核心市场的流动性。 美国"K型经济"背景下，美元资产的回撤极易引发特朗普在决策上的反转（"TACO"）。 在达沃斯论坛上，特朗普释放出与欧洲达成合作框架的说法，并撤销 关税威胁，欧洲议会随后宣称"重启对欧美贸易协议的表决程序"。美股随后反弹至周初点位，但黄金与白银等避险 ...

【 纺服 】 美棉价格历史深度复盘——美国、巴西25/26产量预期双降，美棉安全边际显现 全球棉花供应端迎来巴西、美国两大出口国"双减"，美棉价格在成本倒挂与基差修复双重信号下，底部特征明确，看好棉价上行通道开启。 1. 供给侧收缩预期持续加强： 【巴西】（核心变量）：第一大棉花出口国结束5年产能扩张，CONAB 1/15日最新报告预计25/26年棉花产量同比降6.3%，自25年10月至今每月持续下调预 期。核心产区马托格罗索州减产更为激进，IMEA预计该州产量同比降幅达14.5%。 【美国】WASDE 最新1/12日报告将25/26棉花单产预期大幅下修7.8%，产量下调2.5%，库存消费比回落，库存压力显著减轻。 2. 减产背后硬逻辑： 测算得巴西棉农面临亏损（成本回报率-15.5%），而竞品二季玉米仍有8.4%回报，且玉米运营成本仅为棉花的1/3。 播种进度滞后： 巴西目前播种率仅8.1%（去年同期14.2%），若错失棉花最佳生长期将进一步加强减产预期。 3. 美棉价格筑底明确： 与成本显著倒挂： 现价（~65美分/磅）显著低于美国平均种植成本（~80美分/磅），并逼近政策抵押贷款利率（54.4美分/磅） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "double whammy" moment for dollar assets, triggered by Trump's comments on Greenland and tariff threats, alongside the early dissolution of the Japanese House of Representatives leading to a sell-off in Japanese bonds, resulting in credit breakdown and liquidity withdrawal for dollar assets [2][8]. Group 1: Dollar Assets and Market Reactions - Trump's remarks on Greenland elevated the issue to a matter of "national security and sovereignty," coupled with tariff threats against European allies, causing a significant market reaction where U.S. stocks, bonds, and currencies faced a triple hit, leading to a "death cross" between the dollar and U.S. Treasuries [2][8]. - The sell-off in Japanese bonds, particularly the long-term bonds, was described as a "High City Moment," with the 30-year bond yield rising by 26 basis points to 3.875% and the 40-year bond yield increasing by 27 basis points to 4.215% [10]. Group 2: Economic Data and Consumer Confidence - The U.S. job market remains stable, with initial jobless claims at 260,000, indicating seasonal alignment, but the high number of continuing claims suggests difficulties for unemployed individuals in finding new jobs [4][17]. - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January showed a slight rebound to 56.4 from a previous 54, although it remains at historically low levels, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [5][19]. - Mortgage applications in the U.S. showed a slight decline, with the purchase index at 78.2 (previously 79.9) and the refinancing index at 319.4 (previously 340.9), indicating a mixed recovery in housing market activity [4][18].

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk announced that SpaceX and Tesla plan to deploy a combined solar capacity of 200GW, which is expected to benefit equipment manufacturers first [1][2]. Group 1: Solar Capacity Expansion - The demand for solar capacity is driven by the commercial launch of low-orbit satellites and the trend of space computing, with core equipment manufacturers likely to benefit first [2]. - Musk stated that SpaceX and Tesla aim to achieve an annual production capacity of 100GW each within the next three years [2]. - The stable solar energy generation in space, less affected by weather, provides a significant advantage for low-orbit satellite constellations and space AI computing centers [2]. Group 2: Data Center and Energy Storage - The demand for stable, low-cost, and quickly replicable solar and energy storage configurations is accelerating due to the increasing computational needs of data centers [2]. - The development of low-orbit satellites and space computing is pushing space solar power into the industrialization verification phase, raising requirements for battery efficiency, lightweight, and flexibility [2]. Group 3: Solar Technology Trends - P-type HJT and perovskite tandem cells are expected to become core technology routes for space solar power [3]. - Multi-junction gallium arsenide cells currently dominate the market but face challenges in cost and production capacity for low-orbit applications [3]. - P-type HJT technology has mass production experience and potential for lightweight applications, while perovskite tandem cells offer high efficiency and flexibility, with potential breakthroughs needed for commercialization [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes optimism for the agricultural product market in 2026, highlighting potential price increases for corn, wheat, cotton, white-feathered chicken, beef, and enoki mushrooms [3]. Group 2 - The article suggests that investors should seize opportunities in the rising prices of key agricultural products [3].

报告导读： 2024 年以来消费贷增速有所放缓，其中国有大行积极响应促消费政策导向， 显著加大消费贷投放力度，此外消金公司仍维持较快规模增长。当前银行信用消费贷利率 普遍回升至 3% 监管红线以上，而受助贷新规影响，网贷利率红线约束至 24% 以下。 量：消费贷增速放缓，国有大行投放力度较大 。 截至 25Q3 末，不含个人住房贷款的消费类贷余额为 21.29 万亿元（含信用卡），同比增长 4.2% ，增速 较此前有所放缓。 2020 年来消费贷呈现期限上升的趋势， 25Q3 末中长期贷款占比较 2020 年末提升 12.1pct 至 53.9% 。 1 ）银行消费贷，占比约 27% （ 25Q2 末约 5.80 万亿），上市国有大行、股份行、城农商行消费贷分别为 2.7 万亿、 1.8 万亿、 1.2 万亿（在国有大 行、股份行、城农商行全部贷款的比重分别为 2.6% 、 5.1% 、 9.7% ），分别同比增长 26.0% 、 2.4% 、 12.1% 。 2 ）持牌消金公司合计 31 家，规模占比约 7% ， 2024 年末消费金融公司资产规模达到 1.38 万亿元，同比增长 14.6% 。根据 18 ...