Group 1: Macro Analysis - The structure of the U.S. balance sheet shows a healthy private sector, particularly after the QE phase post-2020, leading to a significant accumulation of net assets among high-net-worth individuals, primarily in real estate and equities [3] - The refinancing loans available to the high-net-worth group support consumer resilience and liquidity in the U.S. stock market, while the new borrowing group is more sensitive to cash flow and debt for asset acquisition [4] - The U.S. economy appears to be transitioning from "K-shaped divergence" to "re-inflation," with the high-net-worth group stabilizing economic expectations and asset prices, thereby creating favorable conditions for the new borrowing group [5] Group 2: Inflation Expectations - Demand-driven inflation expectations exhibit a self-reinforcing mechanism, where heightened inflation expectations can lower actual interest rates and compress credit spreads [6] - Currently, the actual mortgage rates in the U.S. are at their lowest in three years, despite rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a recovery in the housing sector [6] Group 3: Liquidity Trends - The global liquidity environment is shifting from easing to tightening, with Bitcoin serving as a barometer for this transition, impacting liquidity-sensitive assets like the Nasdaq and A-shares [7] - The anticipated policy combination of "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" suggests a non-typical re-inflation trade, resembling stagflation dynamics [7] Group 4: Industry Analysis of Perpetual Bonds - The issuance of industrial perpetual bonds aims to reduce corporate leverage, with significant peaks in issuance observed during 2018-2020 and ongoing demand from high-leverage state-owned enterprises [9] - The proportion of 5+N maturity bonds has increased, reflecting a shift in issuance trends, with expectations for record issuance in 2025 [10] - The inclusion of equity-like clauses in perpetual bonds has risen, with over 60% of recent issuances containing such features, driven by stricter accounting standards [11] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The recommendation for industrial perpetual bonds includes a yield strategy focusing on coal and steel sectors with high asset quality and a duration strategy for public utilities and transportation state-owned enterprises [12]

报告导读： 博弈偏股条款，挖掘偏高利差。 产业永续债的发行主要以降低企业杠杆率为目标，过去有两轮发行与净融资的高峰 。 （ 1 ） 2018 年 -2020 年，《关于加强国有企业资产负债约束的指导 意见》的落地，推动国有企业平均资产负债率到 2020 年年末比 2017 年年末降低 2 个百分点左右，产业永续债发行规模逐年抬升，每年的净融资规模在 4000 亿元左右。（ 2 ） 2023 年至今，部分资产负债率较高的央国企仍有降负债需求，利差收窄背景下企业发行动力抬升，每年净融资规模在 2000- 3000 亿元之间。叠加产业永续债偿还规模攀升，借新还旧的规模亦有所抬升，产业永续债的发行规模持续扩容， 2025 年创下发行规模新高。 近两年产业永续债发行期限中， 5+N 的占比有所抬升，发行期限的变化整体分为三个阶段 ： （ 1 ） 2018 年 -2020 年， 3+N 期限成为绝对主品种，连 续 3 年占比在 70% 以上，（ 2 ） 2021 年 -2023 年， 3+N 仍为主品种，但 2+N 占比抬升明显， 2022 年末的理财负反馈冲击信用债情绪，机构行为偏 好以短为主。（ 3 ） 2024 年 ...

国泰海通业务 arded 3 国泰海通证券2026春季策略会 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号 GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研 3月24-26日 · 深圳 24 + 分论坛深度研讨 多场特色会议、全领域研究阵容 | 会场一览 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3月24日 | | | 更新时间2026/02/12 | | 09:00-12:00 主会场 | | | | | 13:30-17:30 | | 13:30-17:00 | | | 总量分会场:远望又新峰 | 1 | Al 分会场:算力应用全面 开 ...

报告来源 报告导读： 字节跳动近期推出新一代 AI 视频生成模型 Seedance 2.0 。该模型生成视频 稳定性上升，或可大幅降低制作成本，视频工业迎来 GPT3.5 时刻，行业有望加速发展。 投资建议： 近期，字节旗下的即梦团队发布 Seedance2.0 全新视频生成大模型，真正实现了从 " 能生成 " 到 " 能商用 " 的跨越式突破，该模型首次实现 了文字理解与字幕动效生成，可自动解析参考图中的文字并添加合理动态效果。此进展标志着 AI 正从 " 单模态理解 " 向 " 全双工连续感知 " 与 " 跨模态深 度创作 " 跃迁。 Seedance2.0 的自主创作能力不仅重塑了内容生产与交互模式，更催生了涵盖视频生成、实时交互、设计工具、端侧智能等环节的全新产业 链投资机会。我们看好 AI 应用加速落地的长期发展空间。 Seedance2.0 发布，控制精度提升至"导演级"。 其四项巨大突破，使得 Seedance2.0 的模型能力产生质变： 1 ）自分镜和自运镜，模型可以根据用户描 述的情节自动规划分镜运镜。 2 ）全方位多模态参考，用户可以同时给它最多 9 张图片、 3 段视频和 3 段音频，总 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba's top-level strategy is shifting from "model competition" to "system integration," focusing on creating a closed-loop experience that integrates AI with high-frequency scenarios in its digital economy ecosystem [1] - The core of Alibaba's AI strategy post-2025 will not be about the scale of individual models but rather about integrating "Tongyi Qianwen" with various services like e-commerce, local life, payment, travel, and office solutions [1] Group 1 - The "Tongyun Ge" concept emphasizes the integration of Tongyi Lab, Alibaba Cloud, and Pingtouge into a unified "golden triangle," highlighting the collaboration of computing power, model capabilities, and system engineering [1] - The AI2C initiative focuses on user scale and super applications, while AI2B targets enterprise commercialization [2] - The "Qianwen App" will undergo a significant upgrade in January 2026, fully integrating with Alibaba's ecosystem services such as Taobao, Alipay, and Fliggy, marking a transition from conceptualization to practical implementation in the C-end "entry battle" [2] Group 2 - DingTalk is positioned as an "enterprise-level AI intelligent platform," embedding model capabilities into business workflows and systems [2] - The business model is evolving from selling functional subscriptions to selling outcomes and results, indicating a shift in focus towards effectiveness [2] - Significant capital investments will be directed towards cloud and AI infrastructure, including data center expansions, server clusters, and high-performance GPU procurement to support model and platform expansion [2]

报告导读： 安全边际充足，政策预期有望驱动估值修复 。 基本短期暂承压，长期集中度提升空间广阔。 短期看，家居行业基本一方面仍受偏弱的竣工数据影响，终端需求相对平淡，同时 2025 年四季度及 2026 年 一季度叠加了同期因国补产生的高基数影响，短期表观的数据暂承压。中期看，积极的因素正在发生，头部家居公司在行业底部不断夯实基本功，持续推进渠 道融合贯通及产品研发创新，增速跑赢行业，实现市占率的提升。长期看，对比其他品类，家具家居集中度明显偏低，地产底部洗牌有望加速未来市占率集中 进程，龙头份额提升空间广阔。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 当预期照进现实，winner-take-all；报告日期：2026.02.11 报告作者： 刘佳昆（分析师），登记编号：S0880524040004 毛宇翔（分析师），登记编号：S0880524080013 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of domestic interest rate policy remains accommodative, but the pace is relatively steady, requiring a comprehensive consideration of both internal and external environments and policy coordination [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable liquidity (M2) and nurturing stable expectations (exchange rate) while gradually repairing balance sheets in the capital market as key policy objectives [1][3]. - The central bank acknowledges increased external uncertainties and the resilience of the domestic economy, highlighting that despite the "strong supply and weak demand" issue, the long-term positive support conditions and basic trends for the economy remain unchanged [1][2]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Policy Coordination - The policy framework focuses on strengthening domestic demand, with an emphasis on balancing total supply and demand, which is expected to consolidate and expand the positive economic momentum [2]. - The central bank is prioritizing the effectiveness of policy implementation over the dosage, as seen in the structural interest rate cuts in January, with future targeted easing expected to support specific sectors such as domestic demand, technology innovation, and small and micro enterprises [2]. Group 3: Credit and Financial Support - Credit allocation continues to focus on five key areas to assist economic transformation and upgrading, including optimizing loans for technological innovation, promoting green finance standards, enhancing credit systems for small and medium enterprises, supporting the elderly care economy, and implementing financial support for consumer policies [2]. - The central bank has innovatively introduced a one-time credit repair policy to support individuals in rebuilding credit efficiently, which aids in the gradual improvement of private sector credit expansion and consumer demand [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article maintains a "buy" rating, highlighting accelerated price increases for traditional fiberglass electronic fabrics since February, confirming previous reports that machine capacity shifts to AI electronic fabrics have led to supply shortages in traditional fabrics, thereby enhancing profitability for leading fiberglass companies [1]. Group 1: Price Increases and Supply Shortages - Traditional electronic fabric prices have surged in February, with the first week of February seeing prices for 7628 electronic fabric ranging from 4.9 to 5.45 yuan per meter, an increase of 0.5 to 0.6 yuan per meter compared to the previous month [1]. - The announcement by Taiyao Technology on February 10 indicated a reduction in E-glass supply due to high demand for low-dielectric fabrics, further exacerbating the supply shortage of traditional fabrics [1][2]. Group 2: Inventory Levels and Production Capacity - Current inventory levels for leading traditional electronic fabric companies are only two weeks, significantly lower than the normal inventory level of 1 to 1.5 months, primarily due to the shift in weaving machine production to AI specialty fabrics [2]. - Planned expansions for traditional electronic fabric production include 85,000 tons from International Composite Materials and 100,000 tons from China Jushi in Huai'an, with the latter expected to contribute 1 to 1.5 billion meters of electronic fabric capacity [2]. Group 3: AI Electronic Fabric Demand - The shortage of traditional fabrics and the strong demand for AI electronic fabrics are interconnected, with 2026 expected to be a year of realization for AI electronic fabric demand [3]. - The demand for CTE fabrics has been driven by the packaging board needs of AI chips and consumer electronics, with limited suppliers contributing to a high degree of scarcity [3]. - The overall increase in demand for low-dielectric fabrics is expected to remain strong, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 as AI electronic fabrics enter a phase of realization [3].

报告导读： 2026 年 1 月 CPI 同比回落至 0.2% ， PPI 同比回升至 -1.4% ，春节错月 和输入性通胀放大了物价波动。 2026 年 2 月 11 日，国家统计局发布 2026 年 1 月物价数据， CPI 同比回落至 0.2% ， PPI 同比回升至 -1.4% ，春节错月和输入性通胀放大了物价波 动。 本轮 CPI 基期轮换增强了对新经济、新业态消费的覆盖，服务类权重提升。 我国每 5 年会进行一次基期轮换。经测算，本次基期轮换对 CPI 和 PPI 各月同 比指数的影响平均约为 0.06 和 0.08 个百分点，总体较小。 与上一周期相比， CPI 中服务权数有所上升，消费品权数有所下降。一定程度上，这也反映了 我们居民正在从商品主导的消费走向服务主导，从"拥有性消费"向"使用型、体验型消费"转移的趋势。 1 月 CPI 同比回落至 0.2% ，主要受春节错位影响。剔除春节影响， 1 月 CPI 环比涨幅也弱于可比历史同期均值，食品价格拖累是主要原因。核心 CPI 环 比上涨 0.3% ，略高于历史同期均值。结构上看，金价上涨及政策补贴支持的耐用品价格仍是核心通胀的主要支撑，而服务 ...

【基金评价 】 ETF配置系列（一）：恰逢其时 ETF大发展，丰富的品类提供多元配置可能。 我国ETF市场在长期发展过程中，已逐步形成覆盖范围较广、产品类型较为完整的产品体系。按投资市场划分， ETF不仅覆盖中国内地、中国香港和沪港深市场，也涵盖海外主要发达市场（如美国、日本）及新兴市场（如巴西、沙特），并存在跨境全球主题投资的 ETF。按资产类型划分，ETF覆盖股票、债券及商品三大类资产。其中，股票型ETF可进一步细分为宽基、行业、主题及策略四类。债券ETF覆盖利率债、信 用债、可转债及主题债等券种，可按照期限进一步细分，用于满足不同投资目标的需求。商品ETF涵盖黄金、豆粕、有色金属及能源化工四类商品品种，更多 作为大类资产配置工具发挥作用。相对完备且持续进化的生态系统，为投资者进行精细化、多元化资产配置提供了基础工具池。 绝对收益策略。 绝对收益策略池旨在通过股票、债券、商品和黄金等不同类别资产之间较低的相关性构建组合。我们构建了5个绝对收益组合：1、目标波动 率3%策略，2016-2025年底年化收益6.74%，最大回撤3.72%；2、目标波动率5%策略，2016-2025年底年化收益8.04%，最大回 ...