分多空持仓看，基金参与国债期货投资目的仍以套期保值为主。 2025 年 4 季度，公募基金持仓国债期货空头合约市值约为 67 亿元，多头合约市值约为 34 亿元，两者较三季度环比均出现大幅缩水，且低于 2024 年同期水平。这表明四季度弱震荡格局中，公募基金在国债期货上的博弈意愿有所减弱，但整体来看 空头市值仍约为多头的两倍，基金以套期保值为主的结构仍在持续。 分品种看， 2025 年 4 季度资金博弈重心向超长端转移， TL 与 T 合约的空头持仓出现分化 。 2025 年 4 季度 TL 合约的空头持仓占比增至 40% ，较三 季度进一步提升，创下近五个季度新高；同时其多头占比也维持在 14% 的高位，显示出市场对超长端对冲需求旺盛；与 TL 相反， T 合约的空头持仓占比 由三季度的 27% 回落至 20% ，而多头占比则从 8% 提升至 11% 。 报告导读： 中长期纯债基金的"做陡曲线"策略与混合二级债基的"宏观对冲"策略分化明 显。 从基金类型看，中长期纯债基金侧重 TL 空头博弈曲线走陡，混合二级债基出于宏观对冲需求做多意愿增强，而灵活配置型基金则离场观望态势。 ①中长期 纯债基金： 2025 ...

报告导读： 2026 年春节假期再次延长，将保障探亲出游继续两旺。官方预期 2026 年春 运客流将再创历史新高。近期春运客流逐步启动，铁路与航空加班有限，旺季表现可期。 过去两年春节假期延长， 2026 年再延将保障探亲出游继续两旺。 2024 年春节假期调休 8 天，较 2023 年延长 1 天，并鼓励从除夕休息。从 2025 年开 始，春节法定节假日增加 1 天，并优化调休原则，明确从除夕开始放假 8 天；同时， 2025 年春节假期前后拼假效应显著。过去两年春节假期延长，有效助 力探亲出游两旺，春运客流屡创新高，且节中成规模二次出行填补传统低谷。据交通运输部， 2025 年春运 40 天（ 1/14-2/22 ）全社会跨区域人员流动量 超 90 亿人次，同比增长 7% ，再创历史新高。其中，节前（前 14 天）由于春节较早而客流叠加集中；节中（ 8 天）受益假期延长而二次出行旺盛，高基 数致票价同比下降；节后（后 18 天）返程客流分散且后移。 2026 年春节假期将调休 9 天，再度延长将保障探亲出游需求继续旺盛。 2026 年春运预期：官方预期需求旺盛，各交通方式客流均将再创新高。 近日全国春运电 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes that the "transformation bull market" has significant potential, driven by the downward shift of risk-free returns, capital market reforms, and China's economic transition, suggesting that value stocks may see a crucial turning point after years of decline and valuation compression [1] Economic Transition and Profit Improvement - By Q4 2025, the economic transition is expected to accelerate, with the new economic growth center notably rising and expanding from AI to sectors like overseas markets, resource products, and service consumption [2] - The emerging technology industry is characterized by strong supply and demand, with an increasing number of internal segments experiencing price hikes [2] - Four structural features of profit growth in Q4 are identified: 1. Emerging economies remain the primary high-growth area for Q4 performance, with significant increases in electricity consumption in the tech service sector [2] 2. Profit share from mid-to-lower manufacturing is increasing, benefiting from improved inflation and smooth cost transmission from the new economy [2] 3. Large and mid-cap companies show greater profit growth elasticity, with improved production expectations and orders [2] 4. High-tech exports maintain high growth rates, particularly in semiconductors, automobiles, and power equipment, with emerging markets driving exports more than developed markets [2] Technology and Manufacturing Insights - The growth in technology and manufacturing is driven by increased AI penetration and accelerated overseas expansion [3] - Emerging technology sectors are experiencing a surge in demand due to rising AI-related business penetration across various industries [3] - In the new round of easing, industrial construction in emerging market countries is expected to accelerate, benefiting China's strong industrial production efficiency [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with revised profit expectations and low crowding, such as non-bank financials, batteries, electronics, machinery, two-wheeled vehicles, and commercial vehicles [4] - Two dimensions are used to assess sectors where stock prices have not fully reflected current profit expectation revisions: 1. Profit-stock price matching: sectors like batteries, components, shipbuilding, motorcycles, and engineering machinery have seen profit expectations revised upward but stock performance lagging since November 2025 [4] 2. Profit-crowding matching: sectors like non-bank financials, machinery, and electronics have upward revisions in profit expectations but limited stock price increases [4]

报告导读： Moderna 个体化 mRNA 癌症疫苗 V940 在高危黑色素瘤中的 5 年随访结果 支持疫苗机制能提供持久免疫应答，为后续 III 期与注册推进提供了更充分的临床依据。 事件。 2026 年 1 月 21 日， Moderna 与默沙东联合披露个体化 mRNA 癌症疫苗 V940 （ mRNA-4157 ）联合 Keytruda 用于高危黑色素瘤辅助治疗的 IIb 期 5 年随访结果。该联合治疗方案在较长时间内维持了既往观察到的疗效水平，支持其能够诱导并维持相对持久的免疫应答。 核心读出数据支持疫苗机制能提供持久免疫应答。 KEYNOTE-942 研究结果显示 V940 联合 Keytruda 降低 49% 高危黑色素瘤患者复发或死亡风险，疗效 从 2 年随访时的 44% 提升至 3 年的 49% 并在 5 年随访时仍维持在 49% 。同时未发现新的安全性信号。 V940 的整体推进节奏在同类项目中较为靠前。 mRNA-4157 目前已开展 8 项 II/III 期临床研究，适应症覆盖黑色素瘤、非小细胞肺癌、膀胱癌及肾细胞癌 等多种实体瘤。其中黑色素瘤 III 期临床试验已完成入组，预计将于 ...

Core Viewpoint - SpaceX is applying to deploy a constellation of up to 1 million satellites to support advanced AI applications, which will create significant opportunities for solar energy in the construction of orbital data centers [2]. Group 1: SpaceX's Satellite Deployment - SpaceX's application to the FCC aims to launch and operate a satellite constellation of up to 1 million satellites, designed to provide unprecedented computing power for AI [2]. - The satellites will operate in a narrow orbital shell with a width of up to 50 kilometers, at altitudes ranging from 500 kilometers to 2000 kilometers, utilizing solar power and connecting via optical links to existing Starlink networks [2]. Group 2: Solar Energy Opportunities - The demand for stable, low-cost, and replicable solar plus storage solutions is accelerating due to the increasing computational needs of data centers, shifting the ground solar installation logic from power-driven to computation-driven [3]. - The development of low Earth orbit satellites and space computing is pushing space solar energy into the industrialization verification stage, creating higher demands for high-efficiency and lightweight flexible solutions, thus opening up opportunities for high-end manufacturing and customized equipment [3]. Group 3: Industry Exploration - Solar equipment companies are actively exploring the space solar energy sector, indicating a growing interest and potential investment in this area [4].

风险提示： 宏观经济波动加大、行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险。 报告导读： 白酒板块动销和批价上行。大众品板块中零食、乳制品有望迎来春节备货投资 行情。 投资建议： 成长为主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。 白酒：春节动销渐起，飞天批价上涨。 本周1月29日白酒板块单日大幅上涨，主要受地产政策、茅台批价、流动性等多重因素催化。据我们观察，茅台价盘 理顺后渠道融合度显著提升，线上i茅台掀起抢购潮，线下经销商出货甚至略快于往年，近期礼赠及饮用需求增加，普飞批价本周一度涨超1700元。展望后 续：1）短期维度，白酒开门红推进中，除强势品牌外多数渠道打款积极性一般，预计动销高峰2月开启，届时若普飞等核心大单品需求持续释放，则有望支 撑价盘，若批价确认企稳，我们认为其对股价的压制将会减轻；2）中期维度，2026年景气修复和库存去化尚需时间，预计酒企通过以价换量或控量的方式维 持渠道韧性，典型的以价换量如高端龙头茅台、五粮液，控量如习酒、郎酒等，5-6月起行业迎来低基数，动销或将逐步企稳，具备较强放量潜力的品牌有望 更快修复，行业预计呈现主动或被动去库之势，为后续发展奠定基础。 大众品：元旦良好人流量利好出行相关食饮需求。 （ ...

Group 1: Macro Policy Insights - The core policy proposition of Walsh is "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction," emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve to take responsibility for inflation, attributing it to prolonged quantitative easing (QE) post-crisis, and advocating for quantitative tightening (QT) to control inflation [6] - Walsh criticizes the Federal Reserve's large balance sheet, arguing that QE distorts market incentives and leads to a decline in banks' willingness to lend to the real economy, thus promoting a transition from a "sufficient reserves" mechanism to a "scarce reserves" mechanism [6] - The policy approach aims to balance the independence of the Federal Reserve with the administration's desire for rate cuts, reflecting a commitment to controlling inflation while addressing the administration's economic goals [6] Group 2: Economic Implications - QT is viewed as "responsible balance sheet management," correcting the idea of unlimited support for demand, while rate cuts are intended to enhance supply capacity from an industrial policy perspective [6] - The implementation of QT has shown effectiveness in controlling inflation, as evidenced by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropping from 9% to around 3% following the announcement of passive balance sheet reduction in 2022 [6] - However, the use of QT has limitations, as recent liquidity tensions in the repurchase market have led to a halt in QT, necessitating the initiation of Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The transition to a "scarce reserves" mechanism is expected to be challenging, with liquidity issues remaining a constraint on QT implementation until bank reserves return to a relatively sufficient level [6] - Policies aimed at revitalizing manufacturing and the real estate sector under the Trump administration require credit expansion from banks, which is dependent on adequate reserve levels [6] - The shift in policy focus from Wall Street to Main Street is seen as beneficial for addressing the "K"-shaped economic divergence in the U.S., but balancing the conflicts between the upper end (stock market) and lower end (inflation) remains a challenge for Walsh [6]

报告导读： 规模承接行业增量，获取"无风险"收益下探，机构分层加深。 2025 年面对存款搬家，理财投了什么？ 2025 年理财在"存款搬家"背景下温和扩张、增速回归常态，存续规模 33.29 万亿元 ，同比增长 11.2% 。 结构 上，资产端更偏防御与工具化配置，增量更多指向存款与基金通道，存款占比上升 4.3 个百分点，公募基金占比上升、权益占比回落；产品端由高流动性向 收益性与稳定性再平衡，最小持有期型、固收类、 R3 级产品占比抬升（ +6.83pct 、 +3.65pct 、 +2.42pct ），每日开放型、现金管理类、 R2 级产品占 比下降（ -3.64pct 、 -3.77pct 、 -2.86pct 、）。 理财还能带来多少"无风险"收益？ 理财"类无风险"收益锚下移成为全年关键变量。 2025 年以中低风险产品与纯固收、现金管理类产品为代表的 稳健型产 品，近一年收益中枢主要在 2% 至 3% 区间， 中低风险产品上沿可至 3.5% ， 全市场总体近一年平均年化收益率较 2024 年末下降 0.93 个百分点至 2.2% 左右，居民在理财与基金、权益资产之间的机会成本权衡发生变化。 定 ...

【宏观】 缩表式降息：如何理解沃什的政策主张 "缩表 + 降息"：新美联储主席的政策主张 白宫与华尔街的权衡：特朗普为何选择沃什 实用的货币主义：沃什施政思路的猜想 基于货币数量理论， QT 确实是控制通胀的利器。 一个证据是： 2022 年美联储宣布开启被动缩表之后， CPI 从 9% 快速下行至 3% 附近。然而， QT 的使用也有上限，近期由于回购市场流动性紧张，使得银行准备金接近美联储认为的 " 充足水平 " ，而不得不停止 QT 并开启 RMP （储备管理 购买）。 01、 【宏观】 缩表式降息：如何理解沃什的政策主张 26.01.31 02、 【固收】 沃什获提名：联储的独立性变化与美债策略应对 26.01.31 03、 【策略】 美联储换帅前瞻：历史复盘与影响展望 26.01.27 沃什最令人瞩目的政策主张是 " 降息 + 缩表 " 。 他认为美联储需要为通胀负责，而危机后持续 QE 是导致通胀的主要原因，因而要通过 QT 控制通 胀，而一旦通胀风险和政策扭曲被纠正，就可以为降息创造空间，沃什称此为 " 实用的货币主义 " 。 上述政策主张的背后是一场货币政策的机制改革。 沃什曾多次批评美联储的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market may present certain structural opportunities in the upcoming week, despite a generally pessimistic market sentiment indicated by technical models [1][2]. Market Overview - Last week (January 26-30, 2026), the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.08%. Conversely, the CSI 500 Index fell by 2.56%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.09% [3]. - The current overall market PE (TTM) stands at 23.3 times, which is at the 82.0% percentile since 2005 [3]. Quantitative Indicators - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 Index was 5.07 on Friday, slightly lower than the previous week (5.09), indicating current market liquidity is 5.07 times the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF decreased to 0.89 from 0.98, suggesting a decline in investor caution regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the Shanghai Composite Index and Wind All A were 1.75% and 2.49%, respectively, indicating increased trading activity [2]. Macro Factors - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated last week, with onshore and offshore rates increasing by 0.07% and 0.27%, respectively [2]. - The official manufacturing PMI for China in January was reported at 49.3, lower than the previous value (50.1) and below the consensus expectation (50.18) [2]. Seasonal Trends - Historical data since 2005 shows that major indices have a high probability of rising in the first half of February, with average gains of 2.85% for the Shanghai Composite, 3.61% for the CSI 300, 5.34% for the CSI 500, and 4.65% for the ChiNext [2]. Technical Analysis - The SAR indicator for the Wind All A Index broke downwards on January 20 but rebounded upwards on January 23 [2]. - The market score based on moving average strength is currently at 172, placing it at the 59.50% percentile for 2023 [2]. - The sentiment model score is at 0 (out of 5), indicating a negative trend signal [2]. Industry Crowding - The industry crowding levels are relatively high in telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, comprehensive sectors, electronics, and basic chemicals, with notable increases in electronics and defense industries [4].