报告导读： M1增速迅速滑落或受到高基数、财政放缓、居民抢购定期存款等多方面因素 的影响。往后看，我们认为M1仍有边际企稳的可能性，财政靠前发力、人民币升值趋势带 动的企业结汇潮是不容忽视的两大因素。 社融：直接融资贡献较多。 2025年11月社融存量增速降至7.7%（前值8.0%），新增社融2.49万亿元，同比多增1597亿元。政府债新增1.20万亿元，同比 少增1048亿元。贷款（社融口径）新增4053亿元，同比少增1163亿元，贷款余额同比下探到6.4%（前值6.5%）。企业债券新增4169亿元，同比多增 1788亿元，企业债同比高增或与2024年同期低基数、政策支持科创债市场高速发展有关。 信贷：私人贷款走弱，票据融资支撑。 11月信贷新增3900亿元，同比少增1900亿元，企业和居民贷款均延续回落。一方面，消费品以旧换新补贴下发节奏 放缓，导致耐用消费品减弱进而带动居民短贷减少，此外地产价格动能对居民长贷仍有一定影响；另一方面，政策性金融工具落到项目上存在时滞，同时金融 机构与地方政府在年末有项目储备的需求与动机，导致企业信贷走弱。 货币：M1增速回落较快。11月M1增速4.9%（前值6.2%），M ...

国泰海通证券 | 研究所 国泰海通多行业联合系列电话会 第一期: 12 月 13 日 20:00 及政策端迎来持续利好催 化,由此将对我国卫星产 业链带来哪些显著影响? 杨天吴 军工行业首席分析师 近期我国商业航天在产业 火箭发射专场 #-期: 12月14日20:00 我国商业航天发展有望进入快车道,由此将在火箭发射产业链带来哪 些投资机会? 徐 强 周明顧 电力设备与新能源 / 环保 军工行业分析 行业首席分析师 商业航天应用 第三期:12月 15 日 08:00 及投资机会 卫星制造、元器件、分系统、总装、火箭发射、 运营应用、通信、算力、 导航、 遥感、地面站、深空算力硬件 卫星制造 专场 物家 计算机行业 计算机行业首席分析师 持续更新中 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12, 2025, emphasizing a moderate policy tone, a focus on internal demand, and long-term structural improvements while addressing external risks [3][4][9]. Group 1: Policy Tone and Direction - The policy tone is generally moderate, shifting from "seeking progress while maintaining stability" to "maintaining stability while seeking progress and improving quality and efficiency" [4][10]. - Fiscal policy will maintain necessary levels of deficit, debt, and expenditure, with a projected deficit rate around 4% [4][11]. - Monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose, with an emphasis on promoting reasonable price recovery [11][12]. Group 2: Internal Demand and Investment - The focus is on internal demand, with clear strategies to stabilize investment and enhance service consumption [4][11]. - Investment is expected to stop declining, with new policy financial tools being utilized to support this [4][11]. - Service consumption will be promoted through reforms aimed at increasing supply to stimulate demand [11][12]. Group 3: Risk Management and Real Estate - The emphasis on risk prevention has decreased, with ongoing policies for real estate and debt management [5][12]. - Reforms in the housing provident fund system are anticipated, including potential reductions in loan rates and adjustments in withdrawal ratios [5][12]. - The fiscal environment for 2026 is expected to remain similar to 2025, with a focus on managing debt and social spending [5][12]. Group 4: Social Stability and Employment - Maintaining social stability remains a priority, with measures in healthcare, education, and employment being highlighted [6][13]. - The economic growth target for 2026 is expected to remain stable, balancing growth with social needs [6][13]. - The article notes the importance of transitioning from traditional labor-intensive industries to ensure employment stability [6][13]. Group 5: Long-term Structural Reforms - The conference highlighted the need for long-term structural reforms to address "involution" in competition, with a focus on establishing a unified national market [5][12]. - Measures to improve the supply side are expected to contribute to a moderate recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [5][12]. - The commitment to a dual carbon strategy includes accelerating the construction of a new energy system and improving disaster prevention infrastructure [6][13].

Core Viewpoint - The discount intensity in the passenger car market continues to weaken in November, indicating a shift from price wars to refined operations in the domestic market [1] Group 1: Market Discounts and Pricing Trends - In November 2025, the average discount rate for the passenger car market was 18.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points month-on-month and an increase of 1.0 percentage point year-on-year. The average price was 159,000 yuan, remaining stable month-on-month but down nearly 9,900 yuan year-on-year [1] - The average discount rate for traditional energy vehicles was 26.4%, up 0.1 percentage points month-on-month and up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, with an average wholesale price of 164,000 yuan, stable month-on-month but down nearly 14,000 yuan year-on-year. In contrast, the average discount rate for new energy vehicles was 12.2%, down 0.5 percentage points month-on-month and up 1.0 percentage point year-on-year, with an average wholesale price of 156,000 yuan, stable month-on-month but down about 5,000 yuan year-on-year [2] Group 2: Brand Strategies and Market Performance - Among domestic brands, new energy brands maintain a stable pricing system, with AITO and Leap Motor having low terminal discount rates of 6.2% and 11.4%, respectively, indicating solid market demand and pricing power. In contrast, non-luxury joint venture brands have higher discount rates, typically between 25% and 32%, reflecting pressure from the transition to new energy and competition from domestic brands [3] - The pricing strategies of luxury brands show significant differentiation. Tesla China has a discount rate of 4.3%, while traditional luxury brands like Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi have discount rates between 28% and 31%, indicating a price-for-volume strategy. Second-tier luxury brands like Volvo Asia-Pacific and Cadillac have even higher discount rates. Overall, the market shows a pattern where new energy leaders maintain stable prices while traditional brands rely on high discount rates to maintain market share [3]

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Core Insights - The 3C supply chain is embracing humanoid robots, leveraging rapid iteration and large-scale manufacturing capabilities to create a second growth curve [1][2] - The acceleration of AI penetration at the edge is injecting new growth vitality into the 3C industry [3] Group 1: Investment Recommendations - The 3C supply chain is expected to benefit from the cyclical recovery of its own industry, combined with the growth brought by accelerated AI penetration at the edge [2] - The compatibility of the 3C supply chain with humanoid robots is high, as its specialized manufacturing model of "components - modules - complete machines" is likely to adapt well to the mass production phase of humanoid robots [2] - Investment opportunities are suggested in 3C industry chain enterprises that are entering the humanoid robot sector [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The development of humanoid robots is still in its early stages, but the rapid iteration and innovation in new materials, processes, and structures allow 3C OEMs to quickly integrate into the humanoid robot supply chain [2] - As humanoid robots enter the mass production era, the industry chain is expected to transition into a specialized manufacturing model, where the 3C supply chain maintains strong competitive advantages [2] Group 3: Catalysts - The large-scale production of robots is beginning, and the acceleration of AI at the edge is a significant catalyst for growth [4] Group 4: AI Integration - The overall 3C terminal market, represented by smartphones, is entering a recovery cycle, laying the foundation for industry growth [3] - Major industry players are pushing for the accelerated implementation of AI at the edge, which is expected to bring new growth to the 3C industry [3] - Companies like Apple, Google, and Meta are launching AI-powered products that enhance user experience and drive new replacement cycles in the smartphone market [3]

2026年，预计信用风险整体可控，低利差、高波动节奏或将延续。 风险提示：基本面超预期变化、外部环境不确定性、信用主体超预期事件冲击等。 报告来源 （1）供给端，城投发行政策持续收紧，城投债延续净融出态势，未来两年城投发行规模将回落；央企加杠杆趋势延续，中长久期产业债资产供给重要增量； 二永债方面，银行扩表节奏放缓，资本补充动力趋弱，部分中小银行或仍有资本补充需求。 （2）需求端，理财净值化、基金费率新规调整等影响机构负债端稳定性与配债偏好，中短端信用债需求较稳定，整体好于长端。 利率震荡期，票息为王。回顾22年以来利率震荡上行期间债券策略表现，信用策略组合整体表现优于利率策略组合，短端下沉优于久期策略；资本利得获利 空间压缩，持仓收益更多来自票息。建议仍以中短端信用下沉挖掘票息为主，关注事件/政策冲击带来的中长久期品种阶段性高点交易机会。 （1）城投债：延续短久期票息策略，关注地方化债和城投转型进度。中等信用资质的城投债建议以2-3年为主，高层级城投平台可拉长至4—5年，关注地方 化债进度，金融资源禀赋以及地方债额度加持。 （2）二永债：交易价值和曲线凸点的骑乘空间。二永债波动相较前几年趋弱，但国股行二永债 ...

报告导读： 医疗设备招投标规模延续较好增长，伴随设备更新政策持续落地，有望长周期 拉动医疗设备采购水平，推荐有望受益设备更新政策落地带动业绩复苏的医疗设备企业。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 政策拉动国内市场有效复苏，医疗设备招采保持快速增长；报告日期：2025.12.10 报告作 者： 江珅（分析师），登记编号：S0880525090001 赵峻峰（分析师），登记编号：S0880519080017 余文心（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040111 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 投资建议：维持"增持"评级。 推荐有望受益设备更新政策落地带动业绩复苏的医疗设备企业。 医疗设备招投标规模保持增长， 25 年新一轮医疗设备更新 ...

【 宏观】美联储如期降息，开启技术性扩表——2025年12月美联储议息会议点评 美东时间 2025 年 12 月 10 日，美联储发布议息会议声明和经济预测表格（ SEP ），随后鲍威尔例行召开新闻发布会，我们认为主要有四处边际变化： 一 是美联储降息 25BP 基本符合预期，但是美联储内部分歧加大。 12 位 FOMC 投票委员中， 3 人反对， 9 人赞成，这是 2019 年以来首次美联储利率决议 遭到三名投票委员反对。此外，在美联储点阵图中， 12 月的对于 2026 年降息预测比 9 月份更离散，也反映内部分歧加大。 二是美联储对美国经济和通胀 边际上更加乐观。 根据经济预测表格，相对于 9 月份来说，本次美联储全面上修 2025 至 2028 年的 GDP 增速预测，下修了 2027 年失业率预测，同时全 面下修了 2025 年和 2026 年 PCE 和核心 PCE 预测，美联储对美国经济和通胀更加乐观。 三是美联储开启技术性扩表，主要为应对短期隔夜市场出现的 压力。 美联储会后宣布，将在 12 月开始扩大资产负债表，购买 400 亿美元的短期国债，购买规模预计会在几个月内保持高位，随后会显著缩减 ...

报告导读： 政策基调总体温和，下调对外风险评价，重视短期的扩大内需和中长期的"内 功"修炼。 中央经济工作会议 12 月 11-12 日在北京举行，会议贯彻了 12 月 8 日中央政治局会议对经济工作的定调，部署了 2026 年经济工作的八大重点任务。 总体来看，会议充分肯定了今年的经济工作，总结当前经济面临的机遇与挑战，下调对外风险评价，重视短期的扩大内需和中长期的"内功"修炼。预计 2026 年宏观政策有望延续积极基调，但不搞大水漫灌强刺激，做好"逆周期"调节的同时，也会注重"跨周期"调节。 具体来看，会议新闻稿有以下六个亮点： 第一，政策基调偏温和，聚焦内部形势和中长期问题。 总体基调由 2024 年底经济工作会议的"稳中求进，以进促稳、守正创新"，转变为"坚持稳中求进、 提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"。表态上偏温和，预计 2026 年宏观政策有望延续 2025 年基调，整体积极，但也不会大水漫灌强刺激。 第二，明确财政和货币政策具体方向，表达出政策态度的连续性。财政政策方面， 一是，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，预计赤字率维持在 4% 左右。二是，提出"规范税收优惠和财政补贴政 ...