国泰海通证券 研究所 国泰海通非银研究系列电话会议 8月11-20日、9月1-10日 每晚19:30 直 == 非银行金融分析师 非银行金融分析师 王思明 n Andress of the start of the start of the start of the see of the see the see the series of the series of the series of the series and the see the see the see the series a 金融组长 目席分析 tin 刘秋琦 非银会融团队 会议信息系 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号 GTH ...

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Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced an upward fluctuation in interest rates since July, with the current yield spread between long-term bonds and government bonds widening to levels seen before 2024, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards a preference for absolute yields rather than duration [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The yield spread between 30-year government bonds and 10-year government bonds has widened to 32 basis points, while the spread between 10-year policy bank bonds and government bonds is at 16 basis points, reflecting a significant change in market dynamics [1] - The bond market is likely to maintain a weak oscillating pattern, with trading strategies shifting from duration-based bets on interest rate cuts to a focus on absolute returns and coupon logic [2] - The liquidity premium for long-duration, high-liquidity bonds may shrink, necessitating higher absolute yields to attract investors [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The central bank's monetary policy is currently more supportive of short- to medium-term bonds, with limited impact on long-term bonds, as evidenced by recent operations in the open market [3] - The central bank's actions, including a net increase of 300 billion yuan in reverse repos in September, indicate a focus on maintaining stable liquidity in the banking system [3] - The widening of yield spreads for long-term bonds suggests a gradual clearing of pricing bubbles related to duration and elasticity, with potential structural opportunities emerging in shorter-term bonds [3]

国泰海通证券 | 研究所 行业核心洞察 科技创新领头燕,IPO 有望稳步提速 价值主张 15 年专注 IPO 细分市 场,深度洞悉制度变化 年度代表作 《鉴往知来,砥砺前行 -- A 股 IPO 市场十七载 N : 11:11 716 王政之 新股首席分析师 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 推 荐 阅 读 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 报告来源 报告名称：鉴往知来，砥砺前行——A股IPO市场十七载回顾和展望；报告日期：20250816；报告作 者：王政之 S0880517060002 风险提示：新股上市破发率及破发深度提升风险；新股申购中签率降低 的风险，网下投资者参与询价业务内部制度不完善带来的合规风险。 重要提醒 ...

Macro Analysis - The growth rate of social financing has declined, primarily due to weakened government bond support, with August's new social financing at 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 463 billion yuan, marking the first year-on-year decline since 2025 [4] - New government bond financing in August was 1.4 trillion yuan, down 251.9 billion yuan year-on-year, contrasting with an average monthly increase of nearly 700 billion yuan from January to July [4] - The growth rate of social financing has dropped to 8.8%, while the weakness in RMB loans continues [5] Credit and Monetary Policy - In August, new credit was 590 billion yuan, showing seasonal improvement compared to July but still down approximately 310 billion yuan year-on-year [5] - The performance of credit in July and August indicates that effective demand in the real economy still needs further stimulation, as reflected in the declining BCI investment expectation index [5] - The supply side shows that policies no longer emphasize the growth of credit scale but rather suggest maintaining reasonable growth of the financial total [5] Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, with the potential for new highs within the year, supported by accelerated transformation and reduced uncertainty in economic and social development [9] - The consensus on economic expectations remains cautious, which has constrained public investment willingness, keeping many blue-chip stocks at relatively low price levels [10] - The visibility of economic stabilization is increasing, indicating that the bottom position is becoming clearer, which is crucial for stock valuation [10] Industry Comparison - Emerging technology is seen as a mainline opportunity, while cyclical finance is viewed as a dark horse; the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue rising [11] - Recommendations include sectors such as internet, media, innovative pharmaceuticals, electronics, and semi-conductors, as well as traditional sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and real estate [11] Thematic Recommendations - Focus on commercial aerospace, benefiting from satellite mobile communication license issuance and technological innovation [12] - Emphasis on AI applications, with policies accelerating industry-scale development in finance, office, and gaming sectors [12] Foreign Investment Behavior - Foreign capital shows a tendency for similar trading characteristics in AH shares, with a strong positive correlation in net inflows between A-shares and H-shares [17] - Foreign investors prefer high-quality core assets in both markets, with significant holdings in the financial sector [18] - The preference for undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals is evident, as foreign investors favor companies with higher return on equity [19]

报告导读： 从技术面来看，SAR指标再次向上突破反转，出现短期内多次反转，证明市场 多空博弈较为强烈；情绪模型显示市场情绪有所改善。结合以上几点，我们认为，市场下 周或将有一定结构性机会，呈震荡上行趋势。 下周（20250915-20250919，后文同）市场观点：下周或将有一定结构性机会。 从量化指标上看，基于沪深300指数的流动性冲击指标周五为0.78，高于 前一周（0.77），意味着当前市场的流动性高于过去一年平均水平0.78倍标准差。上证50ETF期权成交量的PUT-CALL比率震荡下降，周五为0.67，低于前 一周（0.80），投资者对上证50ETF短期走势乐观程度上升。上证综指和Wind全A五日平均换手率分别为1.31%和2.02%，处于2005年以来的76.88%和 84.00%分位点，交易活跃度有所下降。 从宏观因子上看， 1. 上周人民币汇率震荡，在岸和离岸汇率周涨幅分别为0.22%、0.04%。2. 国家统计局数据显示，中国8月CPI同比-0.4%，低于前值 （0%），低于Wind一致预期（-0.2%）；PPI同比为-2.9%，高于前值（-3.6%），低于Wind一致预期（-2.88%）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Solid-state batteries are identified as the next generation of high-performance batteries, with increasing demand for oxide semi-solid batteries and the potential for sulfide all-solid-state batteries to demonstrate vehicle integration, indicating a strengthening trend in the solid-state battery market [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - Solid-state batteries are expected to become a key development direction for high-performance batteries due to their advantages in safety and energy density, with significant market potential in consumer batteries, new energy vehicles, and low-altitude applications. Companies that are proactively investing in solid-state batteries and key materials and equipment are viewed positively [2]. - The safety and performance improvements of solid-state batteries are driven by both policy and demand. Compared to mainstream liquid lithium batteries, solid-state batteries utilize non-flammable solid electrolytes, reducing the need for flammable organic electrolyte solvents, and can be paired with higher activity materials, significantly enhancing energy density. The Chinese government plans to invest approximately 6 billion yuan in solid-state battery research and development, involving major companies like CATL and BYD [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The solid-state battery market has transitioned from being demand-driven to technology-driven. Before 2024, the focus was on semi-solid batteries, which faced challenges due to high costs and limited market acceptance. However, the demand for aviation-grade lithium batteries in the low-altitude economy is expected to drive the semi-solid battery market's growth [3]. - In November 2024, significant advancements in sulfide technology patents and increased R&D investments in all-solid-state batteries by major companies like CATL have garnered market attention, leading to a systematic rise in the new energy lithium battery sector [3]. Future Outlook - The solid-state battery industry is expected to see an upward trend in market conditions, with the gradual release of semi-solid demand and the potential for all-solid-state products to demonstrate vehicle integration. The oxide solid electrolyte is currently the most mature technology, and the commercial viability of semi-solid batteries is being realized with competitive pricing [4]. - The urgency for R&D in all-solid-state batteries is highlighted by the production planning timelines set by various automotive and battery companies for 2027, indicating a strong push towards commercialization [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the frequent global electricity shortages are primarily due to the rapid growth in electricity demand, while the supply-side structural bottlenecks have not been effectively resolved. Traditional energy generation, represented by coal power, remains a stabilizing force in the global electricity system in the medium to long term [1][4]. Group 2 - Global electricity demand is experiencing a significant increase, with a projected growth rate of 4.4% in 2024, outpacing global GDP growth of 2.9%. This growth is driven by three main factors: deep electrification in the industrial sector, rapid expansion of data centers driven by artificial intelligence, and increased extreme weather events due to global climate change [2][3]. Group 3 - The supply-side structural bottlenecks are becoming more pronounced as electricity demand accelerates. Despite significant investments in renewable energy, the intermittent and unstable nature of sources like wind and solar power has not provided a stable support for electricity demand. Issues such as aging grid infrastructure and inadequate energy storage systems hinder the effective absorption and utilization of new clean energy [3][4]. Group 4 - Coal power is being reconsidered as a crucial component of the global electricity system to address the increasing electricity supply gap. The U.S. is expected to restart coal power by 2025, marking a significant shift in energy development strategies among developed countries. The EIA forecasts a 6% increase in U.S. coal consumption in 2025, indicating a potential shift in energy policy as developed nations seek stable power sources to support rapid technological advancements and respond to extreme weather challenges [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the steel industry is expected to enter a turning point year, with a positive outlook for long-term investment opportunities in leading companies [4][7]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of identifying sector opportunities from a macroeconomic and industry cycle perspective, while also focusing on individual company growth and turnaround potential from an operational and strategic standpoint [4][7]. Group 2 - The report titled "Embracing a Turning Point Year" was published on December 8, 2024, by analyst Li Pengfei [7]. - The report highlights potential risks, including supply-side contraction not meeting expectations and significant demand decline [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the moderate inflation trend in the U.S. for August, driven by food and energy prices, while the transmission of tariffs remains slow, indicating that inflation will not hinder the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in the short term [1][2] - The labor market's ongoing weakness and the Fed's assessment of tariff impacts as one-time events suggest that market focus will shift to employment risks, with interest rate cut expectations likely to persist until concerns about the job market ease [2] Inflation Data Summary - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year (previous value 2.7%, expected 2.9%) and 0.4% month-on-month (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%). The core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations [1] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by food and energy components, while core goods showed a slight recovery, and core services remained stable [1][2] Core Goods and Services Analysis - Core goods saw a month-on-month increase from 0.2% to 0.3%, largely influenced by a rebound in used car prices (from 0.5% to 1.0%). However, the overall core goods growth, excluding used cars, remained flat at 0.17%, indicating slow tariff transmission [1][2] - In the core services sector, rental inflation was the main contributor, but its sustainability is questionable. Air travel and hotel accommodation prices increased due to tourism demand, while other service categories like healthcare and education saw declines [2] Employment and Rate Cut Expectations - The slow transmission of tariffs combined with stable service inflation suggests that inflation will not be a barrier for the Fed's interest rate cuts, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts within the year [2] - The rise in initial jobless claims and the Fed's view of tariff impacts as temporary have shifted market attention to employment risks, with limited market sentiment disturbance from inflation [2]