126年度美路 11月5日上午 北京 · 中国大饭店 · 多功能厅1 会议亮点 本次会议力求面向2026年的市场，围绕Z世代新能源展开,聚焦核 聚变、商业航天、新型储能、智能电动车等重大前沿方向,邀请行 业一线重磅专家,解读产业趋势和投资机会。 议程安排 ● 09:00-09:45 2026年储能与电力现货展望 特邀嘉宾-电网专家 ● 09:45-10:30 以国外商业航天发展历程展望中国商业航天未来 蓝天翼-千域空天洛询创始人 压 泰 图 用 计 券 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...

let is no 联系 11月5日上午 北京 · 中国大饭店 议程安排 | ● 09:00-10:00 2026年中东关系前景展望 | | --- | | 廖百智-中国现代国际关系研究院中东所所长 | | ● 10:00-11:00 2026年中欧关系前景展望 | | 冯仲平-中国社科院欧洲研究所所长 | | ● 11:00-12:00 2026年中美关系前景展望 | | 赵海-中国社科院国家全球战略智库国际政治 | | 研究部主任 | 压泰岛崩止秀 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 ...

Core Insights - The forum provided unique perspectives on the reasons for the impediment in the decline of interest rates and future outlook, covering new patterns in monetary and fiscal policies, evolution of the bond market's microstructure, and experiences from rising overseas interest rates [2] Agenda Highlights - The agenda included discussions on new trends in monetary policy for 2025 and outlook for 2026, led by a professor from Renmin University [3] - A session focused on changes in low interest rate expectations, exploring the causes and initiating new strategies, presented by the head of fixed income research at Guotai Junan Securities [4] - Roundtable discussions addressed strategies for asset allocation amidst low interest rate rebounds, featuring chief investment officers and managers from various financial institutions [4] - Another roundtable examined the prospects and investment strategies of bond ETFs, with participation from directors and managers of prominent funds [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the agenda for a financial strategy report event held on November 5, focusing on non-bank financial institutions and investment strategies [2] - Key speakers include Liu Xinqi, the head of financial research at Guotai Junan Securities, and Gong Chenchen, the deputy general manager of the wealth management subsidiary of Postal Savings Bank [2] - Topics covered include changes in product issuance and asset allocation strategies, as well as new paradigms in investment advisory services [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming 2026 strategy conference organized by Guotai Junan Securities, scheduled for November 4-6, 2025, at the China Grand Hotel in Beijing [3] Group 2 - The content is intended solely for clients who have signed up for Guotai Junan Securities research services, emphasizing the importance of appropriate investor management as per regulatory requirements [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid evolution of the technology and innovation sector, highlighting the transition from mobile internet to AI, smart devices, and new consumption trends. It aims to analyze historical stock performance in the tech industry to identify key characteristics of leading companies and their valuation patterns, providing insights for current and future stock selection in the tech sector [1]. Agenda Summary - The agenda includes a series of presentations by analysts from Guotai Junan Securities, focusing on various sectors: - The first session discusses "Outstanding Leaders in the New AI Cycle" [2]. - The second session examines how beauty industry leaders, specifically Proya, have been developed [3]. - The third session focuses on the electronic semiconductor sector and strategies for identifying high-growth stocks [5]. - The fourth session analyzes the characteristics of outstanding leaders, including their business models and valuation rules [6]. - The fifth session looks into the shipping industry, exploring the causes of a super bull market and investment insights [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing divergence in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path due to the "data fog" caused by the U.S. government shutdown and the realities of economic and inflation trends, leading to a downward adjustment in the expectations for a rate cut in December compared to before the meeting [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Outlook - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there was significant internal disagreement regarding this decision, with some members advocating for maintaining rates and others for a larger cut of 50 basis points [2] - Powell's statements introduced greater uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, indicating an increase in divergence in monetary policy paths [2] - The Fed will cease balance sheet reduction on December 1 to alleviate tightening liquidity in the money market [2] - The Fed expressed a more optimistic view on the economy and greater confidence in controlling inflation [2] Group 2: Employment and Economic Conditions - The current logic for the Fed's rate cuts is based on the pressure from declining employment outweighing the upward pressure from inflation [3] - Structural changes in the U.S. labor market, such as the rise in long-term unemployment and a decrease in immigrant participation, are contributing to a slowdown in economic drivers [3] - The government shutdown has lasted nearly a month, with historical context indicating the longest shutdown was 35 days, and new employment data may emerge before the next meeting on December 10 [3] Group 3: Asset Price Expectations - The article anticipates that major asset prices will continue to reflect the logic of a preemptive rate cut cycle, with U.S. Treasury yields expected to decline further but at a slower pace [3] - U.S. equities are expected to remain supported, particularly in technology and sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate, banking, and small-cap stocks [3] - The U.S. dollar index is projected to experience fluctuations, while the long-term bull market for gold is expected to continue [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the clearer expression of real estate content demands in the 15th Five-Year Plan compared to the 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly regarding the removal of unreasonable restrictive measures and linking high-quality development and real estate risk mitigation to national security capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - The recommendation to maintain an "overweight" rating is based on the expectation of a stable industry and an optimized blue-chip competitive landscape [2]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan proposes the removal of unreasonable restrictions on consumption, including housing, and aims for balanced development between finance, real estate, and the real economy [2]. - The plan includes policies for revitalizing inefficient land use and managing land supply throughout the cycle, indicating a more specific approach to housing consumption promotion and market factor allocation [2]. Group 2: Urban Development and Renewal - The acceleration of urban village renovations and comprehensive urban renewal is anticipated, with the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizing the legal utilization of idle land and housing [3]. - The plan aims to support the urbanization of agricultural migrant populations, suggesting that urbanization benefits will continue to be released over the next five years [3]. - The emphasis on "vigorous implementation" of urban renewal indicates a strong commitment to advancing urban development initiatives [3]. Group 3: High-Quality Development - The 15th Five-Year Plan introduces the topic of promoting high-quality development in real estate, outlining five actionable paths for improvement [4]. - Future efforts will focus on enhancing funding supervision, corporate financing, and existing housing sales to protect buyers' rights [4]. - The shift from an incremental to a stock model in the industry is expected, aligning housing supply with urban renewal and urbanization needs [4]. - The plan highlights the importance of quality in new housing products, focusing on location, amenities, layout, and functionality [4]. - The emphasis on maintenance of existing housing and the potential introduction of a housing pension system reflects a shift in focus towards sustainability and long-term care [4].

Core Insights - The article discusses the correlation between high-frequency factors and stock indices, highlighting that large buy/sell and small buy/large sell factors show strong positive correlation in the short term due to short-term capital effects [1] - It emphasizes the effectiveness of composite strategies over single-factor strategies, suggesting that aggressive composite strategies yield higher win rates in stable indices, while more conservative strategies are advisable in highly volatile indices [1] Summary by Sections High-Frequency Factors - Short-term large buy/sell and small buy/large sell factors exhibit strong positive correlation, driven by short-term capital movements [1] - The short-term negative correlation of large net buy factors may stem from pronounced short-term overbought conditions, leading to potential short-term declines in indices [1] Capital Flow Factor Processing - Short-term averages can quickly respond to changes in high-frequency factors, while medium-term averages serve as a reference benchmark, amplifying deviations from medium-term trends and effectively capturing short-term excess signals [1] Timing Effectiveness of High-Frequency Factors - The timing effectiveness of three high-frequency factors (small buy/large sell at open, small buy/large sell excluding close, and large buy/sell at open) is noted to be strong [1] - The annualized returns for constructed portfolios are as follows: over 15% for the CSI 300 long position (benchmark 5%), over 10% for the CSI 500 long position (benchmark 6.8%), and over 11% for the CSI 1000 long position (benchmark 5.1%) [1] - The Sharpe ratios for these combinations significantly exceed the benchmarks [1] Stability of Composite Strategies - Composite strategies demonstrate superior return stability compared to single-factor strategies [1] - In stable indices, aggressive composite strategies can achieve higher win rates, while in more volatile indices, a more conservative approach is recommended to mitigate uncertainty [1]

Group 1: Core Views - The public fund industry in China is entering a new stage of high-quality development, characterized by profound changes in fund products, companies, sales models, and environmental patterns [1][2] - The future opportunities for different types of public fund products vary, with a focus on active equity funds, passive equity funds, fixed income funds, and innovative products like REITs [1] Group 2: Public Fund Development Trends - Active equity funds will see more standardized benchmark indices, shifting the assessment focus from relative rankings to excess returns [1] - Passive equity funds have rapidly developed over the past two years, with index replication funds reducing fees to benefit investors, while enhanced index products, though currently small in scale, show promising future growth [1] - In fixed income funds, active bond funds and fixed income plus products are thriving in a low-interest-rate environment, and bond index funds are also entering a rapid growth phase [1] - Innovative products such as REITs are accelerating issuance, and multi-asset allocation funds of funds (FOFs) remain a blue ocean market [1] Group 3: Fund Company Development Outlook - The public fund company landscape shows a clear "Matthew Effect," where larger companies can maintain their strengths while smaller firms may benefit from specialized development [2] - The trend in investment research systems is moving towards integration, with a shift from creating star fund managers to building company-wide investment research brands [2] - AI is expected to permeate various aspects of fund company management, talent development, and investment research capabilities [2] Group 4: Public Fund Sales Environment Outlook - The sales model is transitioning from a focus on short-term scale to prioritizing long-term client interests and quality service [2] - The fund sales industry is undergoing ecological restructuring centered around advisory services, with a dual focus on buyer advisory transformation and diversified asset allocation [2] - The emergence of institutional direct sales platforms is anticipated, which will test the differentiated research service capabilities of distribution agencies [2] - Potential market dynamics include a strong market concentration, a dual-driven sales environment of direct and indirect sales, a combination of diversification and digitalization, and a new landscape of high-quality development [2]