报告导读： 中观景气延续分化， AI 产业链延续高景气，存储器继续涨价；服务消费需求 同比明显提升；工业金属价格大幅上涨；地产链和耐用品景气边际下滑。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 AI 产业延续高景气，服务消费同比偏强。 上周（ 12.01-12.07 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）全球 AI 基建持续带动电子产业链需求提升，高端存 储器 DRAM DDR4 价格延续上涨，国内 AI 模型和端侧 AI 手机陆续取得突破，后续仍需关注 AI 应用商业进展以及资本开支持续性； 2 ）服务消费和出行景 气边际有所回落，但 11 月以来景区出行、电影票房均明显好于 24 年同期，或表明传统内需偏弱下，居民更注重"吃喝玩乐"型的轻消费类型，多地实施秋假 也对服务消费景气 ...

Core Viewpoint - The leading companies in the copper-clad laminate industry are collectively striving for high-end market share in 2026, which has led to an upward revision of the procurement framework for specialty electronic fabrics. Traditional electronic fabrics are also expected to see price increases due to the impact of loom conversions [2][4]. Group 1: High-End Copper-Clad Laminate Market - A new "order grabbing season" for high-end copper-clad laminates has begun, focusing on securing higher market shares in ASIC and NVIDIA product lines for 2026. The demand for M8 copper-clad laminates is expected to increase with the potential launch of Google's eighth-generation TPU products [2][3]. - The industry is encouraging upstream suppliers to clarify their expansion plans to ensure material supply security, which is crucial for maintaining competitiveness in the supply chain [2]. Group 2: Specialty and Traditional Electronic Fabrics - There is a growing focus on low-dielectric second-generation fabrics, particularly among leading copper-clad laminate companies. The demand for second-generation fabrics is expected to rise due to the upcoming upgrades in Google's TPU products and the stable usage of second-generation fabrics in NVIDIA's supply chain [3]. - The price trend for traditional electronic fabrics is optimistic due to limited supply growth in recent years, increased demand from AI applications, and the conversion of production capacity from traditional to specialty fabrics, leading to a supply-demand gap [4].

Group 1: Market Overview - As of November 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in the market is 36 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.06% [1] - The total share of public funds in the market is 31.36 trillion shares, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.37%, with equity funds at 6.5 trillion shares (up 1.55%) and bond funds at 9.15 trillion shares (up 0.21%) [1] - New fund issuance in November 2025 reached 94.567 billion shares, a month-on-month increase of 30.81%, accounting for 82.64% of the month's public fund share increment [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Personal investor risk appetite has slightly improved, with ordinary stock, enhanced index, and mixed funds showing month-on-month increases of 0.18%, 3.62%, and 0.41% respectively [2] - QDII and FOF funds continue to see net inflows, with month-on-month growth rates of 3.97% and 8.88% respectively [2] - Institutional investors are seeking to enhance returns amid interest rate fluctuations, with funds primarily flowing into secondary bond funds and REITs, showing month-on-month increases of 0.50% and 1.10% respectively [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The bond market is experiencing increased volatility, making capital gains harder to achieve, leading to a shift towards more attractive fixed-income plus products [3] - Mixed FOF products are seeing sustained month-on-month growth in new issuance, driven by large-scale issuances supported by the招商银行长盈计划 [3] - The "TREE 长盈计划" aims to provide a one-stop asset allocation solution, focusing on risk control and stable returns for clients [3] - The new performance evaluation guidelines for fund management companies have been issued for consultation, emphasizing the alignment of fund managers' interests with those of investors and enhancing investor experience [3]

全球主要债券市场收益率普遍上行， 美债曲线呈现长端大幅上行、短端分化的陡峭化特征， 30 年期上行 12.8 个基点至 4.79% ， 1 年期逆势下行 0.7 个 基点。欧债同步上行，英国 20 年期大幅上行 14.58 个基点至 5.11% ，德国 10 年期上行 10 个基点至 2.86% 。日本 10 年期上行 13.2 个基点至 1.94% 创 18 年新高。信用利差显著收窄， G-spread 收窄 6.2 个基点，高收益债利差收窄 13.2 个基点至 2.431% ， VIX 指数下降至 15.41% 。 点心国债与境内国债收益率同步上行但离岸涨幅更大，离岸 10 年期收益率上行 1.64 个基点至 1.9095% ，离岸 - 在岸利差从 5.19 个基点扩大至 6.15 个 基点。点心债共计发行 33 只、 280.31 亿元人民币 , 金融债占比 87.2% 。中资美元 / 港币债发行 26 只，美元债 22 只、 101.07 亿美元。 上周全球信用动态整体平稳 , 未出现重大主权评级调整。 惠誉报告显示美国杠杆贷款违约率降至 4.8% 但高收益债违约率升至 3.3% ，主要由 Saks ...

【食品饮料】飞天批价波动，饮料龙头估值吸引力提升 投资建议：成长为主线、继续重视供需出清下的拐点机会。 1）白酒推荐成长及先出清标的；2）饮料结构性高增；3）零食及食品原料成长标的；4）啤酒；5）调 味品平稳、牧业产能去化，餐供有望恢复。 大众品：软饮料板块成长股估值吸引力提升，类红利资产长期配置价值延续。 （1）软饮料板块中部分个股股价有所回调，在成长性延续背景下，估值吸引力提 升。此外低估值、高分红的类红利资产持续具备长期配置价值。此外啤酒板块淡季迎来低位配置时机。餐饮&供应链板块预计将受益秋冬相关消费阶段性有望增 强。（2）中国旺旺：FY25H1公司营收同比+2.1%，其中销量同比增长近双位数表现优异。此外公司零食量贩收入同比高增长，占集团收益比已达约15%；新兴渠 道同比增长达双位数，占集团总收益比已逾10%；海外业务持续精耕。 白酒：飞天批价波动，i茅台上线鉴定预约服务。 本周飞天茅台批价震荡下跌，目前报1530-1550元，预计与临近年末渠道存在资金周转需求以及供给投放节奏有 关，此外本周拼多多百亿补贴三人拼团1399元飞天茅台活动发酵亦对市场情绪产生影响。此前茅台在临时股东大会上提出将通过建立长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new performance evaluation regulations in the non-bank financial sector, emphasizing the importance of investor experience and the growth of mixed FOF products [5]. Group 1: Fund Market Overview - As of November 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in the market reached 36 trillion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.06% month-on-month [3]. - The total number of public fund shares was 31.36 trillion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.37%. Equity funds accounted for 6.5 trillion shares, up 1.55%, while bond funds totaled 9.15 trillion shares, up 0.21%. Money market fund shares were 14.61 trillion, down 0.44% [3]. - In November 2025, 945.67 billion new fund shares were issued, marking a month-on-month increase of 30.81%, with equity funds contributing 546.69 billion shares (up 42.27%) and bond funds 216.66 billion shares (up 49.2%) [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - There was a slight recovery in individual investors' risk appetite, with ordinary stock, enhanced index, and mixed funds showing month-on-month increases of 0.18%, 3.62%, and 0.41%, respectively. QDII and FOF funds continued to see net inflows, with growth rates of 3.97% and 8.88% [4]. - Institutional investors are seeking to enhance returns amid interest rate fluctuations, with funds primarily flowing into secondary bond funds and REITs, which saw month-on-month increases of 0.50% and 1.10% [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The industry is placing greater emphasis on investor experience, with the issuance of mixed FOF products continuing to grow month-on-month. The new performance evaluation regulations are currently under consultation [5]. - The 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated upwards, leading to increased volatility in the bond market. This has made capital gains more challenging, prompting new fixed-income products to shift towards more attractive fixed-income plus products [5]. - The "TREE Changying Plan," launched by China Merchants Bank in collaboration with public funds, aims to provide a one-stop asset allocation solution for clients, focusing on risk control and stable returns through optimal FOF selection [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent weakening of 30-year government bonds and the potential for a re-pricing of the 30-year to 10-year government bond yield spread due to changes in institutional participation and expectations, despite a low interest rate environment [1][2]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Environment and Yield Spread - The narrowing of the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds since 2023 is attributed to both declining interest rates and the influence of trading and speculative forces [1]. - Historical data suggests that the core determinants of the 30-year to 10-year yield spread are not solely based on interest rates but also on the economic cycle and policy orientation [1][2]. Future Expectations - The low interest rate environment does not necessarily lead to a downward shift in the yield spread's central tendency or a continuous narrowing of its fluctuation range [2]. - The central tendency of the 30-year to 10-year yield spread may rise to 40 basis points (bp), with an expanded fluctuation range of 30-50 bp, influenced by changes in policy environment, economic expectations, and institutional behavior [2]. Long-term and Short-term Factors - Long-term factors affecting yield spread volatility include the pressure from the stock-bond relationship, price fluctuations in cyclical goods, and potential underperformance of monetary policy [3]. - In the short term, there are signs of recovery in the 10-year government bonds and T contracts, suggesting gradual participation, while the 30-year bonds require further observation [3]. Investment Strategy - If the 30-year to 10-year yield spread continues to widen, there may be entry opportunities, but investors should be aware of the current wide fluctuations, which could exceed 20 bp [3].

报告导读： 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们建议战术性超配 A/H 股与工 业金属，战术性标配国债，战术性低配美元。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 利率决议将至，建议均衡配置——战术性资产配置周度点评（20251208）；报告日期： 2025.12.08 报告作者： 王子翌（分析师），登记编号：S0880523050004 方奕（分析师），登记编号：S0880520120005 多重因素支持中国权益表现，我们维持对 A/H 股的战术性超配观点。 经济工作会议临近， 2026 年是十五五开局之年，预计广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济 政策有望更加积极。若美联储 12 月降息，当下人民币稳定升值也为 2026 年初中国宽松货币提供有利条件。改革提振中国市场风险偏好。中国权益相较于其 他主要大类资产的风险回报比较高。 融资需求与信贷供给仍不平衡，我们维持对国债的战术性标配观点。 在海外货币政策预期的趋松修正的背景下，我国央行货币政策或发力，以呵护银行间资 金流动性充裕稳定。此前债券市场调整较大，但融资需求与信贷供给不平衡仍是客观现实，流动性的边际改善或有利于稳定债市情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downside risks [1] Group 1: Coal Price Trends - Domestic coal prices have transitioned from an upward trend to a rational decline since November, with the focus on whether winter demand can exceed expectations [1] - As of December 5, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 801 RMB/ton, down 27 RMB/ton (-3.3%) from the previous week [2] - The adjustment of long-term coal contracts for 2026 aims to enhance the upper limit while ensuring compliance rates, which is beneficial for sector valuation [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic supply remains stable while imports continue to decrease, with total supply expected to maintain a steady decline throughout the year [2] - The demand side shows significant improvement during the off-season, with Q3 profitability expected to rebound [2] - As of December 5, 2025, the inventory of coking coal at three ports totaled 2.9 million tons, with a utilization rate of 79.18% for coking enterprises with over 200,000 tons [3] Group 3: Global Energy Landscape - The short-term position of coal in the global energy landscape remains strong, with attention drawn to issues such as electricity shortages in the U.S. [1] - The cost of domestic Q5500 coal is 35 RMB/ton lower than that of Australian imported coal, indicating competitive pricing [3] - The price of Australian coking coal increased by 7 USD/ton (3.1%) to 222 USD/ton, highlighting fluctuations in global coal pricing [3]

Market Performance - Global indices experienced a slight increase last week, with MSCI Global up by 0.4%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 0.3%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 1.3% [1] - In the bond market, Japanese bond yields rose while UK bond yields fell [1] - Commodities saw significant fluctuations, with copper and silver showing notable changes, while natural gas experienced a substantial decline [1] - Currency movements included a depreciation of the US dollar, appreciation of the British pound and Japanese yen, and stability in the Chinese yuan [1] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased in US and Japanese markets, while trading in Hong Kong, A-shares, UK, German, and French markets weakened [1] - Investor sentiment improved in Hong Kong, although it remains at historically low levels, while US investor sentiment also rose, reaching historically high levels [1] - Volatility decreased in Hong Kong, European, and US markets, while Japanese market volatility increased [1] - Overall valuations in both developed and emerging markets rose compared to the previous week [1] Earnings Expectations - Recent upward revisions in earnings expectations for Japanese stocks were noted, with US stocks showing the best marginal changes for 2025 earnings expectations [2] - Hong Kong's earnings expectations were downgraded, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from 2105 to 2094 [2] - US earnings expectations remained stable, with the S&P 500 Index's 2025 EPS forecast at 272 [2] - European earnings expectations also remained stable, with the Eurozone STOXX 50 Index's 2025 EPS forecast holding at 330 [2] Economic Expectations - Economic sentiment in Europe and the US showed signs of recovery last week, supported by various factors including Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and improvements in service sector activity [2] - The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index increased, influenced by the Fed's rate cut expectations and developments in the Ukraine-Russia talks [2] - Conversely, the Citigroup China Economic Surprise Index declined, impacted by weaker manufacturing PMI and subdued policy expectations [2] Capital Flows - High expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts were maintained, with indications of a potential 25 basis point reduction in December [3] - Market expectations suggest the Fed may cut rates three times in 2026 [3] - Global liquidity conditions improved, with significant capital inflows into China, the US, Japan, India, and South Korea noted in October [3] - Continued inflows into Hong Kong stocks were observed through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3]