Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the policy stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Walsh, emphasizing "pragmatic monetarism" which aims to control inflation while addressing President Trump's interest in interest rate cuts, ultimately seeking to correct market distortions caused by excessive quantitative easing (QE) and achieve convergence in the "K"-shaped economy [2]. Group 1: "Balance Sheet Reduction + Rate Cuts": New Fed Chairman's Policy Proposals - Walsh's notable policy proposal is "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" (QT), asserting that the Fed must take responsibility for inflation, which he attributes to prolonged QE post-crisis. He believes QT is necessary to control inflation, and once inflation risks are mitigated, it will create room for rate cuts [3][7]. - The policy proposals reflect a reform in monetary policy mechanisms. Walsh criticizes the Fed's large balance sheet, claiming QE distorts market incentives. He advocates for reducing bank reserves through balance sheet reduction to enhance lending willingness, transitioning from a "sufficient reserves" to a "scarce reserves" framework [4][8]. Group 2: The White House and Wall Street Balance: Why Trump Chose Walsh - Trump's criticism of current Chairman Powell as "Mr. Too Late" led to speculation about other candidates, but Walsh, favored by Wall Street, offers a balance between maintaining Fed independence and aligning with Trump's rate cut demands. His "pragmatic monetarism" reflects a commitment to controlling inflation while accommodating Trump's interests [4][12]. - The QT approach is seen as "responsible balance sheet management," correcting the idea of "infinite support" for demand-side policies, while rate cuts aim to enhance supply capabilities from an industrial policy perspective. This aligns with Trump's supply-side reform agenda [4][12]. Group 3: Pragmatic Monetarism: Speculations on Walsh's Governance Approach - Based on the quantity theory of money, QT is indeed a tool for controlling inflation. Evidence includes the CPI dropping from 9% to around 3% after the Fed announced passive balance sheet reduction in 2022. However, QT has limits, as recent liquidity issues in the repo market have led to a halt in QT and the initiation of Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) [5][16]. - Operationally, a series of deregulatory measures for banks, such as relaxing capital constraints and optimizing the Fed's temporary discount tools, could provide more room for QT. However, transitioning to a "scarce reserves" framework is challenging, and liquidity issues will constrain QT until bank reserves return to adequate levels. Trump's policies for manufacturing and real estate require credit expansion, which depends on sufficient reserve levels [5][16].

报告导读： 变化的沃什的政策倾向，不变的美联储独立性困境。美债建议防御优先、久期 中性、控制波动。 1. 聚焦美联储换届：货币政策与美债市场前瞻 1.1 美联 储换届 前后的历史规律回顾：货币政策和债市行情变化 从历史经验来看，美联储主席换届对债券市场的影响主要体现在收益率波动加剧、曲线形态调整以及风险溢价重估三个维度。 换届前后6- 12个月通常是政策不确定性最高的时期，市场对新任主席的政策立场、沟通风格和独立性存在疑虑，这种不确定性直接转化为债券市场波 动率上升和流动性溢价扩大。 从收益率走势来看，换届期间债市表现呈现明显的"情景依赖"特征。 2006年格林斯潘-伯南克交接时，10年期美债收益率在交接前后三个 月内波动区间仅30个基点，政策延续性强；2014年伯南克-耶伦交接正值QE退出初期，10年期收益率从交接前的2.7%升至年底3.0%，反 映市场对政策正常化路径的重新定价。2018年耶伦-鲍威尔交接时经济强劲、通胀回升，10年期收益率从2.4%快速攀升至3.2%，曲线平 坦化趋势加速，市场担忧新主席延续渐进加息导致曲线倒挂。 曲线形态方面，换届往往触发期限利差的结构性调整。 历史数据显示，若新任主席 ...

母 1 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / TONG SECURITIES KE 国泰海通证券2026春季策略会 3月24-26日 · 深圳 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号 GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...

人形机器人产业正以惊人的速度崛起，成为全球投资者关注的焦点。这不仅是一场技术革命，更是对未来生产与 生活方式的深刻重塑。 国泰海通证券机械行业首席分析师肖群稀在新书《硅基觉醒》中，深入剖析人形机器人产业的发展历程，指出具 身智能技术正逼近技术奇点，并全方位展现该产业的图景。同时，本书试图回答以下问题： ● 技术迷雾： 具身智能、驱控方案、感知技术、新材料，它们的商业化瓶颈与成熟度拐点在哪里? ● 穿越场景迷宫： 从替代危险、繁重的人工操作，到走进家庭提供深度服务，哪些细分应用场景将率先实现?其 规模经济性和落地可行性如何? ● 估值困惑： 在技术快速迭代、商业模式尚在探索的机器人产业中，如何建立合适的产业价值评估体系? · 专家推荐语 · 肖群稀著，机械工业出版社，2026年1月出版。 从精密减速器到 Al 大模型,从工业场景到家庭客厅,一本书拆解人形机器人全栈价值链。技术、商业、 政策三线并进,为投资者与创业者绘制穿越周期的产业蓝图,把握硅基觉醒的时代红利。 一石照耀 北京工业大学教授,教育部长江学者特聘教授,国家产业基础专家委员会委员 国际标准化组织齿轮标准委员会 (ISO/TC60) 委员,全国减速机标 ...

Core Insights - Figure Helix 02 has achieved a breakthrough in full-body autonomous control technology for humanoid robots, enabling coherent and precise operations across multiple scenarios, thus opening new avenues for commercialization in the humanoid robotics sector [1][2]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - The Helix 02 model represents a significant leap from its predecessor, focusing on full-body control rather than just upper body movements, indicating a major advancement in humanoid robot capabilities [1][2]. - The new "three-level collaborative" control architecture of Helix 02 integrates a single neural network to replace millions of lines of code, allowing for human-like natural movements and addressing the industry's challenges of mobility and manipulation [3]. Group 2: Practical Applications - Helix 02 has demonstrated its ability to perform complex tasks autonomously, such as unloading a dishwasher with 61 coordinated actions without human intervention, showcasing its potential in household services and restaurant kitchens [2]. - The robot's capabilities extend to precise operations, including tasks like opening bottle caps and sorting items in chaotic environments, which could lead to applications in medical assistance and precision manufacturing [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The humanoid robotics industry is expected to continue evolving, with many companies pursuing technological innovations and practical applications, positioning 2026 as a pivotal year for commercialization [1][2]. - There is a focus on the supply of core components for robots, which will be crucial as the industry moves towards broader adoption and implementation [1].

聚焦政策方向：降息、收储和城市更新。 2026 年行业主要压力来自投资增速仍存压力，不排除对经济构成拖累。政策端能否有序推动降息和收储是对行业自 身投资增速不足的有效弥补。展望 2026 年，将继续重点关注降息、收储、城市更新落地进程。后续需要对以上数据保持密切跟踪。 风险提示。 1 ）市场环境偏冷，到位资金下行，开发商投资意愿难有起色。 2 ）二三线城市库存问题仍然严重，行业修复将呈现分化形态。 3 ）专项债收储 落地不及预期。 报告来源 报告导读： 行业供给缩量提质，新旧动能形成合力推动市场触底回暖。基于以上判断，我 们认为 2026 年重点城市销售有望率先寻找均衡点。长尾城市市场拖累依旧，但幅度收 窄。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 核心销售趋于均衡，投资开发仍需助力；报告日期：2026.01.29；报告作者： 涂力磊（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040101 谢皓宇（分析师），登记编号：S0880518010002 陈昭颖（分析师），登记编号：S0880525100002 我们认为当前 AH 房地产板块总市值与行业在经济中所处地位不匹配。 重要提醒 2025 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry has entered a deep adjustment period, but recent positive changes in the real estate and domestic demand sectors, along with Moutai's market-oriented transformation, are stimulating incremental demand and driving valuation recovery [1]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Positive changes in the real estate sector and domestic demand are noted, recommending companies with price elasticity and those expected to clear inventory gradually [2]. - The real estate industry is showing signs of recovery, with policies becoming more favorable. The government prioritizes boosting domestic demand, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [2]. - The real estate market is stabilizing after years of adjustment, with recent reports indicating that many real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, signaling a shift in the market [2]. Group 2: Moutai's Market-Oriented Reform - Moutai's market-oriented reform, initiated in December 2025, aims to adjust product structure, pricing systems, and distribution networks, which has led to increased demand and stable pricing [3]. - The online platform "i Moutai" has seen a surge in purchases, and the demand for core products is expected to support pricing as the Spring Festival approaches [3]. - Recent price increases for Moutai products indicate a successful strategy of exchanging price for volume, with significant price increases noted, such as a rise of over 1600 yuan for certain products [3]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Stock Performance - The white liquor industry is believed to be at the bottom of its cycle, with significant inventory clearance observed since Q3 2025 [4]. - The stock prices of white liquor companies have been under pressure due to weak market demand and liquidity issues, but stabilization in pricing could alleviate this pressure [4]. - If more positive signals are released from the policy level, it could further catalyze stock prices in the white liquor sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential introduction of new monetary policy tools in China, particularly focusing on the establishment of ONRRP-like tools and two-way overnight repos to manage liquidity and interest rate fluctuations in the financial market [1][2]. Group 1: New Monetary Policy Tools - The possibility of creating tools aimed at non-bank institutions, similar to the Federal Reserve's ONRRP, is highlighted. These tools would primarily serve to prevent excessively low funding rates [1]. - The central bank has indicated a shift towards providing liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific scenarios, moving from "exploring" to "establishing" such mechanisms [2]. - The new mechanism is expected to be non-regular and specifically target non-bank entities, aiming to reduce funding stratification and volatility [2]. Group 2: Two-Way Overnight Repos - The introduction of two-way overnight repos for commercial banks is seen as a natural extension of DR001 becoming the benchmark interest rate. This would align the new repo with the existing policy rate [3]. - The current weighted average of DR001 has returned to 1.36%, supporting the view that the new repo could replace the 7-day OMO as the primary policy rate [3]. Group 3: Necessity of Short-Term Innovations - The necessity for short-term innovations in monetary policy tools is considered relatively limited, as the 7-day OMO rate is expected to be confirmed as the sole policy rate by mid-2024 [4]. - The overlapping functions of the proposed two-way repos and existing tools suggest that immediate changes to the toolset may not be essential [4]. - The current operational framework, which includes high-frequency OMO and low-frequency reserve requirement ratio adjustments, is deemed effective, indicating that there may not be a pressing need for a complete overhaul of the toolset [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in silver prices, attributing it to a combination of industrial and financial demand, and highlights the differences between silver and gold in terms of their market behavior and attributes [2][5][10]. Group 1: Silver Price Surge - Since 2025, silver prices have skyrocketed, reaching new highs, primarily driven by industrial and financial demand [6][8]. - The price of silver increased from $29.4 per ounce at the beginning of 2025 to $72.0 per ounce by the end of the year, marking a 144.8% increase, while gold rose by 62.8% during the same period [8]. - As of January 27, 2026, silver prices reached historical highs of $111.6 per ounce in the spot market and $106.5 per ounce in COMEX futures, with year-to-date increases of 50.3% and 51.1%, respectively [8]. Group 2: Historical Context of Silver Price Movements - Over the past 50 years, silver has experienced four notable price surges, with the most recent one beginning in 2024 due to geopolitical risks and instability in the international monetary system [3][16]. - The first surge occurred from 1979 to 1980, driven by speculative funds, while the second surge from 2010 to 2011 was fueled by quantitative easing following the financial crisis [16]. - The third surge in 2020 was a result of monetary easing in response to the pandemic, and the fourth surge since 2024 has been supported by strong industrial demand amid global energy transitions [17][19]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Industrial demand is the core driver of silver prices, accounting for 58.5% of total demand in 2024, with significant contributions from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [22][23]. - The demand for silver in photovoltaics is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating that global photovoltaic silver usage will reach 196 million ounces by 2025, 2.2 times that of 2021 [23]. - The ongoing energy transition and technological advancements in high-end electronics are expected to sustain structural growth in silver demand [19][22]. Group 4: Market Behavior and Volatility - Silver's financial attributes lead to greater price volatility compared to gold, as it attracts speculative investments due to its lower price and higher elasticity [12][26]. - The increase in speculative positions in silver futures can significantly impact prices, as seen when non-commercial long positions rise, leading to increased market optimism and price surges [26][28]. - The structure of silver ETFs, particularly the locking mechanism of inventories, can exacerbate market tightness and influence price dynamics [28][29]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for silver prices remains positive, supported by ongoing industrial demand and potential shifts in monetary policy as countries reassess their reserve assets [33]. - The article warns of potential short-term overvaluation risks for silver, as recent price movements may indicate a correction phase following a period of rapid gains [34][36].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive analysis of fund performance ratings, highlighting the top-performing fund managers and their respective returns over different time frames, emphasizing the importance of selecting high-rated funds for investment success [1][4][5]. Fund Manager Ratings - The article lists several fund managers with their establishment dates and performance ratings over ten, five, and three years, with many achieving the highest rating of ★★★★★ [1][4]. - Notable fund managers include: - Dachen: Established on April 12, 1999, with a ten-year return of 199.62% [4]. - Huashang: Established on December 20, 2005, with a five-year return of 112.45% [4]. - Anxin: Established on December 6, 2011, with a three-year return of 25.45% [4]. Performance Rankings - The article presents a performance ranking of various fund types, indicating that stock funds have a ten-year return of 71.74% and a five-year return of 15.50% [5]. - Enhanced stock index funds show a ten-year return of 73.64% and a five-year return of 16.77% [5]. - The article also highlights the performance of specific sectors, such as the electronic sector, which has a significant contribution to overall fund performance [12]. Investment Style Insights - The article discusses the importance of understanding investment styles and fund holdings, suggesting that investors should analyze fund managers' preferences and strategies to align with market trends [13][16]. - It emphasizes the need for a dual perspective on net value and holdings to quickly identify suitable investment products during market rotations [13]. Market Analysis and Industry Rotation - The article provides insights into industry rotation, identifying high and low economic sentiment sectors, with electronics and communications being highlighted as high sentiment industries [26]. - It suggests that investors should focus on sectors with strong fundamentals and positive market sentiment for better investment outcomes [26].