Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a slight decline in the total scale of bank wealth management products, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% but a month-on-month decrease, primarily driven by fixed income products [1]. Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - As of the end of January 2026, the total scale of bank wealth management products was 31.55 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% [1]. - The decline in scale was mainly attributed to fixed income products, which saw a decrease of 891 billion, while cash management and mixed products increased by 141 billion and 204 billion respectively compared to the beginning of the year [1]. Group 2: New Product Issuance - In January, 2,513 new wealth management products were issued, which is a decrease of 324 from December, with an initial fundraising scale of 4,238 billion, down 22.0% month-on-month [1]. - The breakdown of new products includes 54 cash management, 2,411 fixed income, 32 mixed, and 16 equity products, with respective month-on-month changes of -4, -261, -41, and -8 [1]. Group 3: Average Yield - The weighted average yield of bank wealth management products in January was 2.86%, an increase of 8 basis points from December [1]. - Specifically, the average yields for cash management and pure fixed income products were 1.78% and 2.65%, showing decreases of 8 basis points and 2 basis points respectively; while the yields for fixed income + type and mixed products increased by 5 basis points and 78 basis points to 2.89% and 4.19% respectively [1]. - Equity products saw a significant rise in yield from 4.57% to 12.33%, highlighting a pronounced shift in market dynamics [1]. Group 4: Product Performance - The number of underperforming wealth management products returned to a lower level in January, with 1,074 products breaking net value, accounting for 1.5% of the total, marking the lowest level in nearly two years [2].

每周 一 景 ：甘孜藏族自治州四川省贡嘎雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【基金 】 国泰海通证券2月基金投资策略 基金投资策略 股混基金： 从基金投资的角度来看，在成长主线下，价值和成长风格中均具备结构性投资机会的市场格局或将延续，因此我们建议后续基金配置在整体维持 均衡风格的前提下，适度偏向成长，并且关注基金经理的选股和风控能力，重视主投科技领域基金，兼顾周期、金融等资产。 指数主题基金： 我们从基本面景气度、超预期水平、量价水平和资金流强度四个维度出发，构建行业轮动模型，2月最新高景气度行业分别为基础化工、建筑 材料、环保、石油石化、通信和钢铁，结合ETF产品的流动性和相关性，我们构建的ETF行业轮动投资组合。 债券基金： 从基金投资角度来看，建议关注久期灵活的利率债和重配高流动性信用债的产品。此外，随着权益市场回暖，我们认为固收+基金同样具备一定配 置价值，建议持续关注。 QDII和商品型基金： 全球地缘政治局势的不确定性上升以及各国央行持续购金有利于支撑长期金价中枢，从长期投资和避险投资的角度来看，我们认为可适 当配置黄金ETF，但趋势配置者短期需要谨慎。美国经济韧性较强，内生性通胀粘性逐渐减弱，投 ...

Market Performance - Emerging markets saw a narrowing increase last week, with MSCI global index up by 0.2%, MSCI developed markets flat at 0.0%, and MSCI emerging markets up by 1.4% [1] - In the bond market, the U.S. 10Y Treasury yield experienced the largest increase, while commodities like oil surged and gold and silver saw notable pullbacks [1] - The global energy sector showed consistent growth, with Chinese stocks performing strongly in cyclical sectors, and utilities and communications in Europe and the U.S. outperforming [1] Trading Sentiment - Global market trading volume increased last week, with major indices experiencing higher volatility [1] - A/H/U.S./European/Japanese stock trading volumes rose, while Korean stock trading volume decreased [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved and reached historical highs, while U.S. investor sentiment also remained at historical highs [1] - Volatility increased across Hong Kong, U.S., European, and Japanese stocks, while U.S. Treasury bond volatility decreased [1] - Valuations for both developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [1] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Japanese and European stocks were revised upward last week, with the following changes: 1) Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from -2.1% to -2.0% 2) U.S. S&P 500 Index 2025 EPS forecast revised from +10.5% to +11.8% 3) Eurozone STOXX 50 Index 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from -4.5% to -4.4% [2] Economic Expectations - The U.S. economic surprise index rose last week, potentially due to stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and easing geopolitical tensions [2] - The European economic surprise index also improved, likely supported by better-than-expected GDP growth in the Eurozone for Q4 [2] - The Chinese economic surprise index showed marginal improvement, influenced by expectations surrounding real estate and service consumption policies, as well as improved Sino-British relations [2] Capital Flows - The hawkish nomination of Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has influenced market expectations, with a slight decrease in the anticipated number of rate cuts for 2026 [3] - Global liquidity remained stable, with significant capital inflows into China, the U.S., South Korea, India, and Europe [3] - The largest incremental capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks came from the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3]

Core Insights - The optical interconnection industry shows strong performance expectations, with a clear trend of price increases in the fiber optic sector and new growth opportunities from hollow core technology [1][2] Group 1: Industry Performance and Trends - The optical interconnection sector is expected to maintain strong performance, with significant differentiation providing insights for 2026 [2] - The appreciation of the RMB impacts the optical interconnection sector, particularly those focused on overseas exports, affecting provisions and exchange rates [2] - The market for pluggable modules is anticipated to continue improving, with new packaging and material technologies transitioning from concept to reality, highlighting marginal change opportunities [2] Group 2: CPO/OIO Opportunities - Attention is drawn to the transition of CPO/OIO technologies from 0 to 1, with LightCounting forecasting that CPO shipments will begin scaling from 800G and 1.6T ports between 2026 and 2027, primarily for large cloud service providers [2] - By 2029, the expected penetration rates for CPO technologies are projected to be 2.9% for 800G, 9.5% for 1.6T, and a significant 50.6% for 3.2T [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of fiber continues to rise, driven by increased demand from telecom and mobile operators ahead of major procurement events and the upcoming Spring Festival [2] - It is anticipated that major domestic clients will accept price increases, confirming the volatility within the sector [2] Group 4: Industry News and Investment Highlights - Corning has reached a long-term supply agreement worth $60 billion with Meta, while Nvidia has invested an additional $2 billion in CoreWeave [3] - Microsoft has released its second-generation AI chip, Maia 200, and the personal AI assistant ClawdBot is gaining global traction [3] - The AI industry is driving network upgrades, with strong overseas demand benefiting core domestic enterprises amid a new cycle for domestic infrastructure [3]

Core Insights - AstraZeneca announced a plan to invest $15 billion in China, primarily focused on cell therapy and radiolabeled conjugates during the visit of the UK Prime Minister [1][2] - This investment aims to leverage China's scientific capabilities and advanced manufacturing to provide cutting-edge treatment solutions for patients globally [1] Investment Details - The $15 billion investment will significantly enhance AstraZeneca's capabilities in cell therapy and radiolabeled conjugates, addressing cancer, blood diseases, and autoimmune diseases [2] - The investment will cover the entire value chain from drug discovery to clinical development and manufacturing, with collaborations with leading biotech companies to bring Chinese innovations to the world [2] - Specific uses of the investment include: 1. Establishing global strategic R&D centers in Beijing and Shanghai 2. Expanding existing manufacturing bases in Wuxi, Taizhou, Qingdao, and Beijing, along with setting up new facilities 3. Increasing the skilled workforce in China to over 20,000 employees [2] Market Implications - This investment reflects multinational corporations' growing interest and recognition of local R&D capabilities and the Chinese market, driven by the ongoing validation of China's engineering talent and biopharmaceutical capabilities [3]

核心观点 ： 沃什降息立场更为鸽派和确定；中国政策重心正转向内需主导，并列为 2026 年首要任务。大跌后，良机就在眼前，市场有望企稳。新 兴科技是主线，价值也会有春天。 | | | 摘要 ▶ 大跌之后：市场有望逐步企稳，投资良机就在眼前。 近期中国市场波动较大，全A平均股价调整达到6%，上证指数跌至临近4000点，并在午后出现 恐慌性抛售。市场下跌由多因素耦合：1）预期层面，市场正快速评估新提名美联储主席凯文·沃什的政策主张，其"降息+缩表"的倾向引起金融条件紧 缩的担心；2）微观交易，黄金/白银等商品价格剧烈波动，以及前期A股权重ETF持续被抛售，叠加临近春节长假观望情绪升温，内外交织之下中国市 场出现大跌。 国泰海通策略认为，大跌之后，市场有望逐步企稳，在春节前重拾上升势头，坚定看好中国股市：第一， 全球市场正快速计入美联储潜 在的鹰派货币立场，但从路径角度沃什的降息立场更鸽派和确定； 第二， 中国政府的政策重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，有望提振中国经济 前景与资产回报； 第三， 中国证监会近期再次强调"全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势头"，并推出中长期资金入市新政。 市场的无差别恐慌抛售令交易加 快出 ...

【 策略 】大跌之后：良机就在眼前 【光伏设备 】SpaceX 申请百万卫星布局轨道 AI 数据中心，太空光伏与设备环节有望率先受益 大跌之后：市场有望逐步企稳，投资良机就在眼前。 近期中国市场波动较大，全A平均股价调整达到6%，上证指数跌至临近4000点，并在午后出现恐慌性抛 售。市场下跌由多因素耦合：1）预期层面，市场正快速评估新提名美联储主席凯文·沃什的政策主张，其"降息+缩表"的倾向引起金融条件紧缩的担心；2） 微观交易，黄金/白银等商品价格剧烈波动，以及前期A股权重ETF持续被抛售，叠加临近春节长假观望情绪升温，内外交织之下中国市场出现大跌。国泰海通 策略认为，大跌之后，市场有望逐步企稳，在春节前重拾上升势头，坚定看好中国股市：第一，全球市场正快速计入美联储潜在的鹰派货币立场，但从路径角 度沃什的降息立场更鸽派和确定；第二，中国政府政策重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，有望提振中国经济前景与资产回报；第三，中国证监会近期再 次强调"全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势头"，并推出中长期资金入市新政。市场的无差别恐慌抛售令交易加快出清，投资中国的良机就在眼前。 市场快速计价美国"缩表"风险，但沃什的降息立场更 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metal prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, influenced by the new Federal Reserve Chairman's policies and the decline in tech stocks [1] - The rise in central bank gold purchases and gold ETF holdings is expected to support gold prices through 2026 [1] - The decline in London silver leasing rates is noted, while U.S. silver inventories are decreasing rapidly [1] Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - Hawkish macroeconomic sentiments are pressuring copper prices, with expectations of a strong dollar and market adjustments [2] - Despite the pressure, supply disruptions and a potential widening copper mine gap are expected to provide price support [2] - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to tightening liquidity and a decrease in processing activity, with a 1.5% drop in comprehensive aluminum processing activity to 59.4% [2] Group 3: Tin and Energy Metals - Tin prices have significantly corrected due to macroeconomic sentiment shifts and speculative selling, with supply concerns easing as production resumes in Myanmar [2] - Lithium inventories are declining, indicating strong demand, while cobalt prices remain high due to tight raw material supply [3] - The expectation of a reduction in battery export tax may lead to preemptive demand in the lithium market [3] Group 4: Rare Earths and Tungsten - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides are rising due to tight supply and pre-holiday stocking demands [4] - Tungsten prices are increasing sharply due to regulatory crackdowns on illegal mining and strong pre-holiday restocking [4] - The supply constraints and high costs are expected to keep tungsten prices elevated despite potential seasonal transaction volume reductions [4] Group 5: Uranium - The rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development are expected to maintain a persistent uranium supply-demand gap, with prices likely to rise [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of the Federal Reserve, highlighting a pause in interest rate cuts while indicating a slightly hawkish stance, which has led to adjustments in asset prices. The appointment of Kevin Walsh as the new Fed Chair is seen as a catalyst for market adjustments, particularly in precious metals, but the article suggests this is a short-term reaction rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to pause interest rate cuts during its meeting on January 28, 2026, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on the economy, employment, and inflation, which increases uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [2][3]. - The dollar index began to rise, while U.S. stock markets experienced fluctuations, with precious metals initially rising but later facing corrections due to the Fed's hawkish signals [2][3]. Group 2: Kevin Walsh's Appointment - Kevin Walsh's nomination as the next Fed Chair was unexpected in terms of timing and his policy stance, which emphasizes Fed independence and a pragmatic approach to monetary policy, advocating for both rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [2][3]. - The market does not expect Walsh's policy proposals to be implemented in the short term, as there are constraints related to dollar liquidity and employment pressures, despite the Fed's potential for technical balance sheet expansion starting December 2025 [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Walsh's appointment, there was significant volatility in commodity markets, particularly in precious metals, which the article attributes to a rapid prior increase in prices rather than a fundamental change in market conditions [3]. - The article notes that while Walsh's appointment has some catalytic effects on market dynamics, it does not signify a fundamental shift in Fed policy direction, suggesting that precious metal prices may find support after short-term technical adjustments [3]. Group 4: Global Asset Performance - During the week of January 26 to February 1, 2026, global asset prices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.38% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.34%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [4]. - Commodity prices were also mixed, with Brent crude oil futures rising by 6.65% and the London gold price declining by 2.03% [4].

1） 短期：为何大跌？主因不是美联储。 关联阅读 ▼ 国泰海通｜黄金 · 宏观专题研究合集 国泰海通丨"不同寻常"的黄金牛市 【精彩回放】国泰海通 · 首席大咖谈｜宏观梁中华：如何看黄金？ · 投资要点 · 本轮⻩⾦价格的⼤幅下跌主要是前期超涨、资⾦杠杆较⾼、交易拥挤情况下的正常调整，并不改变⻩⾦⻓期上涨的⽜市格局。中⻓期来看仍可关 注⻩⾦的布局机会。 首先，我们认为贵金属大跌的最主要的原因来自于前期的非理性超涨。在此情况下，获利止盈需求的累积使得较小的边际扰动也会带来剧烈的回调压力。 其次，非理性上涨时期积累的散户杠杆资金成为了波动放大器。 " 沃什交易 " 只是引爆贵金属情绪转向的导火索之一，而非主要原因。 2） 中期：关注超跌带来的机会 前期黄金的上涨主要集中在亚洲与美洲交易时段。在此轮下跌中，美盘与亚盘内黄金价格已有明显调整，欧洲交易时段内黄金价格有所企稳。后续随着各 个交易所去杠杆进程的结束，黄金价格有望逐渐企稳。总体来看，黄金中长期行情仍没有结束，建议关注超跌所带来的黄金布局机会。 白银短期稀缺，长期不稀缺。 白银短期压力偏大，白银短期供给具有稀缺性，是 " 投机 " 黄金的工具：黄金涨的时候，白 ...