Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a decline in trading activity for hot themes, with a notable rise in space photovoltaic themes, while precious metals and resource products are experiencing a pullback. The focus of local two sessions is on expanding domestic demand and strengthening technology, particularly in sectors like commercial aerospace, robotics, urban renewal, and domestic consumption [1]. Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - Multiple local sessions are deploying tasks for the development of the commercial aerospace industry, with Shandong integrating Yantai Dongfang Aerospace Port into the national commercial aerospace layout and supporting companies like Tianbing Technology and Tianzhang Satellite in Henan [2]. - Elon Musk's team has examined China's photovoltaic industry chain, enhancing the enthusiasm for space photovoltaics, with expectations that by 2030, China will establish a world-leading space computing center [2]. - Recommendations include benefiting from the rapid development of medium and large reusable liquid rocket manufacturing and launch service industry chains, as well as space photovoltaic-related materials like gallium arsenide, heterojunction, and perovskite batteries [2]. Group 2: Robotics - Various regions are setting development tasks for the robotics industry by 2026, with Shandong aiming for a scale exceeding 200 billion yuan in robotics and smart equipment [3]. - The procurement of 100,000 tactile sensors by Lingxin Qiaoshou from Fulei New Materials indicates accelerated mass production in the industry [3]. - Recommendations focus on benefiting from technological upgrades in sensors, electronic skin, and dexterous hands, as well as companies capable of large-scale production like Tesla, Yushu, and Zhiyuan [3]. Group 3: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal is expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing the real estate market and expanding domestic demand, with the State Council proposing major projects in infrastructure and urban renewal [4]. - Shanghai has outlined plans for urban renewal actions, including the acceleration of village renovations and the acquisition of second-hand housing to increase rental supply [4]. - Recommendations include construction materials such as waterproofing, pipes, and coatings, as well as infrastructure and public space updates like underground pipelines and landscaping [4]. Group 4: Domestic Consumption - The consumption structure in China is shifting from primarily goods consumption to a balance between goods and service consumption, with service consumption projected to account for 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure by 2025 [5]. - Shanghai aims to cultivate 20 new integrated service consumption scenarios, while Guangdong is promoting the pet economy and various event-driven economies [5]. - Recommendations include sectors benefiting from travel, hotel, and airline consumption, as well as emerging consumption trends in sports and trendy products [5].

Group 1: Precious Metals - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors on metal prices, particularly in a tight supply-demand balance, with monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions being critical influences [1] - Recent adjustments in precious metal prices are attributed to a decline in risk appetite, influenced by disappointing earnings reports from US tech stocks and expectations of a strong dollar and Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction [1] - China's central bank continued gold purchases in January, and the increase in gold ETF holdings will support gold prices [1] Group 2: Copper - Ongoing macroeconomic pressures are impacting copper prices, with expectations of strategic reserves providing some support [2] - The establishment of a "copper concentrate strategic reserve" aims to enhance resource control and mitigate overseas supply disruptions, while AI-driven infrastructure demands are expected to support copper prices [2] - Despite macroeconomic pressures, copper prices are anticipated to stabilize due to strategic premium support [2] Group 3: Aluminum - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to a combination of macroeconomic factors and seasonal demand weakness, with a decline in processing rates observed [2] - The ISM services PMI in the US returned to expansion, but lower-than-expected ADP employment figures contributed to price fluctuations [2] - Social inventory trends indicate a continued accumulation during the off-season [2] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices are experiencing downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and reduced funding, but there is resilience in downstream purchasing as prices decline [2] - Increased activity in the Indonesian tin market and supply recovery in Myanmar may lead to marginally looser supply conditions [2] Group 5: Energy Metals - Demand for lithium remains strong despite a four-week inventory reduction, with expectations of preemptive battery demand due to changes in export tax policies [3] - The cobalt sector faces high prices due to tight raw material supplies, while companies are extending their reach into downstream markets to enhance competitive advantages [3] - Rare earth prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxides, are rising due to tight supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 6: Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are on the rise due to long-term contracts and supply-demand dynamics, with a notable increase in prices across the industry [3] - The uranium market is seeing long-term contract prices reach a ten-year high, driven by rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development [3]

每周 一 景 ：甘孜藏族自治州四川省贡嘎雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观 】 黄金大跌：后续如何看 短期：为何大跌？主因不是美联储。 首先，我们认为贵金属大跌的最主要的原因来自于前期的非理性超涨。在此情况下，获利止盈需求的累积使得较小的边 际扰动也会带来剧烈的回调压力。其次，非理性上涨时期积累的散户杠杆资金成为了波动放大器。"沃什交易"只是引爆贵金属情绪转向的导火索之一，而非主 要原因。 中期：关注超跌带来的机会。 前期黄金的上涨主要集中在亚洲与美洲交易时段。在此轮下跌中，美盘与亚盘内黄金价格已有明显调整，欧洲交易时段内黄金 价格有所企稳。后续随着各个交易所去杠杆进程的结束，黄金价格有望逐渐企稳。总体来看，黄金中长期行情仍没有结束，建议关注超跌所带来的黄金布局机 会。 白银短期稀缺，长期不稀缺。白银短期压力偏大，白银短期供给具有稀缺性，是"投机"黄金的工具： 黄金涨的时候，白银涨的更多；黄金跌的时候，白银跌 的更多。而长期来看，白银供给并不那么稀缺，所以银铜比将长期保持稳定，金银比将长期上涨。 长期：黄金行情仍有支撑。 本轮贵金属价格的大幅下跌是对年初以来非理性上涨的技术性调整，而非黄金长期牛市的终结 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall risk in the cross-year bond market is controllable, with a tendency for a warm sentiment to continue in the short term. The focus should be on the yield curve dynamics, particularly the narrowing of the 10-2 year spread and maintaining the 30-10 spread around 40 basis points [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship for long-term bonds has improved significantly, with most long-term local government bonds issued at rates below 2.5%, indicating strong market absorption capacity [1]. - Technical indicators show a notable improvement, with recent trading sessions experiencing upward momentum and a low-level golden cross in the KDJ indicator, suggesting a shift in short-term funding focus [1]. - Funding rates are stabilizing and declining, but the future downward space is limited unless there is a reduction in the Open Market Operation (OMO) rates [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The 10-year government bonds and policy financial bonds present a high cost-performance ratio, as their rebound has not fully absorbed the benefits of monetary easing, indicating clear potential for price recovery [2]. - The supply pressure for 10-year bonds is relatively controllable compared to ultra-long bonds, with a current yield of approximately 1.96%, providing a thicker spread protection compared to 10-year government bonds [2]. Group 3: Short and Ultra-Long Bonds - The pricing of medium and short-term bonds has fully reflected the benefits of monetary easing, with limited further downward space and significant compression of spreads, making the cost-effectiveness of carry strategies insufficient [3]. - The issuance of ultra-long local government bonds has been stable, indicating market absorption capacity, but caution is advised regarding older bonds due to potential selling pressure and liquidity issues [3]. - The 30-year government bonds are expected to follow the recovery of 10-year bonds, with a compression of spreads anticipated but not expected to fall below 40 basis points [3].

报告导读： 海外金融紧缩预期边际改善，国内政策重心正转向内需主导。恐慌性抛售后， 中国股市已至关键位置，建议持股过节。新兴科技是主线，价值也会有春天。 投 资 要 点 ▶大势研判：持股过节。 近期中国股市波动较大，并出现单日恐慌式抛售，市场悲观情绪弥漫。究其原因：沃什"降息+缩表"倾向引发金融条件紧缩担忧、美股科 技龙头巨额资本开支扰动与前期A股权重ETF持续被抛售交织助推了交易波动和信心走弱，加之临近春节长假观望情绪升温，客观上股市微观结构受到负面冲击。 与当下谨慎共识不同的是，国泰海通策略坚决看好中国市场前景，建议持股过节：1）全球市场正快速计入美联储潜在的鹰派货币立场，但从路径角度沃什的降息 立场更鸽派和确定。与此同时，贝森特澄清强美元政策并非指干预汇率，海外金融紧缩预期边际改善。2）中国政府的政策重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任 务，有望提振中国经济前景与资产回报。3）证监会近期再次强调"全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势头"，A股上市公司亦掀起回购热潮。我们认为，中国股市将逐步 企稳与展开春季行情，眼下是增持良机。 ▶ 重要的边际：内需政策提速，价值迎来春天。 过去五年，中国内需增长经历了明显下行，比如房地 ...

报告导读： AI 融合赋能与政策资本加持下，脑机接口多技术路线并行推进，场景落地加 速开启商业化增长周期。 2026年2月2日-2月6日SW传媒指数下跌3.30%，位居31个行业第26名，弱于上证指数（下跌1.27%）、深证成指（下跌2.11%）、沪深300（下跌1.33%）、创 业板指（下跌3.28%）。近期AI流量入口的争夺日渐激烈，建议关注受益于新场景新生态的赛道。 AI应用"三分天下"，流量入口成必争之地。 2026年春节期间，元宝、千问和豆包三款AI应用均推出多种活动获客，抢占AI流量入口。元宝10亿元现金红包的 活动最先展开，从2月1日持续到2月17日，首轮活动的现金红包已完成提现；千问30亿元的活动于2月6日开启，第一轮活动以外卖免单为主；豆包（火山引 擎）作为2026年央视春晚的冠名商，活动尚未正式展开，从公布的预告来看，预计会在除夕当晚结合央视春晚推出。在AI大战如火如荼的同时，千问、元宝和 豆包三款AI应用在2月6日占据了iPhone应用下载免费榜的前三位，其中元宝和千问均在活动开启当日登顶。 AI塑造新场景，多赛道公司有望受益。 AI大战的本质是对流量入口的争夺，同时也是对新场景和新生态 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the market is expected to continue its oscillation in the upcoming week, based on various technical indicators and market sentiment models [1][2]. - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was reported at 6.21, which is higher than the previous week's 5.07, suggesting that current market liquidity is significantly above the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF increased to 0.96 from 0.89, indicating a rising caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index and Wind All A five-day average turnover rates were recorded at 1.34% and 1.97%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity, positioned at the 77.24% and 82.76% percentiles since 2005 [2]. - The official manufacturing PMI for China in January was reported at 49.3, lower than the previous value of 50.1 and below the consensus expectation of 50.18, while the S&P Global China Manufacturing PMI was at 50.3, slightly above the previous value [2]. - The SAR indicator showed that the Wind All A index broke below the reversal indicator on February 2, indicating a potential downward trend [2]. Group 3 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations last week, with the SSE 50 index down by 0.93%, the CSI 300 index down by 1.33%, the CSI 500 index down by 2.68%, and the ChiNext index down by 3.28% [3]. - The current overall market PE (TTM) stands at 23.0 times, which is at the 81.0% percentile since 2005, indicating a relatively high valuation level [3]. - Observations on factor crowding indicate a decrease in high profitability factor crowding, with small-cap factor crowding at 0.06 and low valuation factor crowding at -0.31 [3].

Macro and Industry Environment - The policy uncertainty has temporarily settled, and significant clinical data continues to be released, leading to a notable recovery in risk appetite for innovative drugs. The biotech and pharmaceutical sectors in the US stock market are expected to strengthen significantly by Q4 2025, with improved investor sentiment towards innovative drug investments in 2026 [1] - There has been heightened activity in MNC BD transactions around the JPM conference, with an increasing share and capability of Chinese innovative drug assets in global transactions, indicating their growing attractiveness in the global innovation ecosystem [1] Oncology - The certainty around PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies is rising, transitioning from "mechanism validation" to "clinical and industrial resonance." Multiple MNCs are advancing several global Phase III trials for high-value indications like NSCLC, with approvals and data readouts expected to be key catalysts within the year [1] - The Pan-RAS precision therapy is advancing systematically for pancreatic cancer and NSCLC in first-line, second-line, and combination therapies, with critical Phase III data anticipated in 2026, marking a significant realization period for this direction [1] Weight Management and Metabolism - In the context of limited insurance coverage and high out-of-pocket costs for obesity indications in the US, the cash-pay population is becoming a significant source for the GLP-1 market expansion. Pharmaceutical companies are actively enhancing accessibility through direct sales platforms, pricing adjustments, and multi-channel distribution to unleash demand elasticity [2] - The small nucleic acid approach in weight management represents a mid-term upgrade variable, with its potential to improve weight loss quality and fat distribution when combined with GLP-1, possibly evolving weight management treatment from a "single hormone-driven" to a "multi-pathway regulation" model [2] Autoimmunity - The concentration risk of MNC's major products in the autoimmune sector is becoming evident, with increasing reliance on a few blockbuster products. The income concentration risk is gradually surfacing against the backdrop of patent cycles and intensifying competition [2] - Incremental opportunities are emerging from two main paths: the new generation antibody platforms (dual antibodies/multi-antibodies, B cell depletion, etc.) are expected to yield dense POC data readouts in 2026, potentially triggering a new round of BD and asset revaluation [2] - The trend towards oral formulations is becoming clearer, with the long-term medication nature of autoimmune diseases providing natural advantages in adherence and differentiated competition for oral dosage forms. Various technological routes such as BTK, TYK2/JAK, oral PROTAC, oral cyclic peptides, and PDE4 are worth continuous tracking [2] CNS - The core investment theme in the CNS field remains focused on the advancement of A β monoclonal antibody treatment from early symptom populations to preclinical AD. Eli Lilly's Donanemab-related Phase III data is expected to be a key catalyst for opening up the "early intervention" market space [3] - Previous data indicates that populations with low to moderate tau and earlier stages show better efficacy and safety windows. Additionally, next-generation A β therapies, represented by Roche's Trontinemab, are expected to achieve stronger clearance effects and better safety at lower doses and shorter treatment durations, potentially raising the ceiling for AD treatment [3] - Systemic delivery of small nucleic acids and other new pathways are seen as supplementary directions, reflecting innovations in mid- to long-term delivery methods [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recovery of clinical CRO demand due to the rebound in innovative drug financing and R&D activities, regulatory emphasis on efficiency, and the transition to data-driven and intelligent clinical execution models [1] Group 2 - Innovative drug financing and BD (business development) activities have shown a synchronized recovery, with the primary market financing amount in the healthcare sector reaching approximately 79.5 billion yuan from Q1 to Q3 of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22%. This shift indicates a move from "early and small investments" to "clinical and certainty-based investments" [1] - The scale of Chinese innovative drug BD activities abroad reached a historical high, with a total transaction amount of approximately 135.7 billion USD and upfront payments of about 7 billion USD for the year [1] Group 3 - The number of IND (Investigational New Drug) applications has continued to rise, with the CDE (Center for Drug Evaluation) accepting 1,878 INDs in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. The proportion of Class 1 innovative drugs has increased to 1,517 varieties, indicating a concentration of R&D resources on high clinical value innovative projects [2] - Approval rates for Class 1 innovative drug INDs are approximately 96.5%, while NDA (New Drug Application) approval rates are around 86.9%, reflecting improved review efficiency and approval rates [2] Group 4 - The global regulatory focus has shifted from "risk avoidance" to "efficiency first," which is expected to accelerate clinical trial timelines. The FDA has prioritized enhancing R&D and review efficiency, including streamlining clinical initiation processes and allowing more dynamic data usage [2] Group 5 - Clinical trials are evolving towards data-driven and continuous processes, with a shift from "phase-based advancement" to "process management and data-driven" approaches. This evolution requires CROs to extend their capabilities beyond mere execution to include data collection, quality control, statistical analysis, and IT system capabilities [3] - The implementation of continuous trial designs, real-time data monitoring, and phase-based submissions is becoming more common, enhancing the efficiency of clinical execution [3] - Leading CROs with digital platforms, compliance systems, and scale advantages are better positioned to translate technological capabilities into execution efficiency, thereby reflecting higher certainty during the recovery phase [3]

报告导读： AI 融合赋能与政策资本加持下，脑机接口多技术路线并行推进，场景落地加 速开启商业化增长周期。 投资建议： 我们认为，在 AI 与脑机接口深度融合趋势及十五五规划政策加持下，技术迭代与场景落地成为行业核心驱动力，看好全链条布局、 AI 赋能突出 及临床场景绑定紧密的企业。 法律声明 脑机接口凭借双向信息传输能力构建人机协同通路，形成多技术路线并行发展格局。 作为连接生物大脑与外部设备的直接信息交互通道，其核心功能涵盖神 经信号解读、外部设备操控及大脑信息输入，可实现脑功能的替代、修复、增强与优化。技术路线上，非侵入式、半侵入式、侵入式各具优势，非侵入式以操 作简便、安全性高成为当前主流，半侵入式兼顾风险与效能，侵入式则凭借高时空分辨率在复杂神经活动解码中具备优势。 AI 技术与脑机接口的深度融合成 为重要趋势，通过机器学习算法提升信号解码精度与效率，实现双向交互、自适应化与精准解码，推动行业向 " 脑机智能共同体 " 高阶形态演进。 全球产业竞逐升温，国内政策与资本双轮驱动产业化提速。 全球范围内，中美主导核心赛道竞争，美国主攻侵入式技术，中国在非侵入式、语言解码领域实 现突破，同时加快侵入式技术 ...