报告导读： 煤炭价格淡季回升，预计 2026H1 上半年压力仍在但同比 25 年同期会趋 缓，电煤需弹性大概率从 2026H2 开始，预计 26H2 煤价可以升至 800 元 / 吨以上。 煤价 淡季上行，行业底部确定在 2025Q2 ，行业 " 反内卷 " 持续发酵。 从 9 月以来我们观察到习总书记在《求是》杂志重要文章《纵深推进全国统一大市 场建设》提出着力整治企业低价无序竞争乱象。 7 月下旬国家能源局直接插手煤炭行业"超产"问题后，实际成为煤炭行业"反内卷"落地的标志性事件， 8-9 月陕西发改委《关于优化煤炭生产供给促进煤炭市场平稳运行的通知》；山西省发布《山西省安全生产抓落实工作机制》； 9 月 8 日，内蒙发布《内蒙古自 治区能源局关于全区生产煤矿生产能力核查情况的通报》，各省政策持续落地。 7-8 月煤炭全国产量为 3.8 亿、 3.9 亿吨，明显弱于过去 1 年半的月均产 量，实际煤炭产量收缩在所有反内卷行业内领跑。 1 ）需求端： 7 月全社会用电量同比 +8.6% ，火电发电量同比 +4.3% ，增速比 6 月份加快 3.2 个百分 点，供需格局大幅好转。 2 ）供给端： 8 月份，规 ...

报告导读： 随着十一长假结束，资金回流，市场对10月四中全会谋划"十五五"规划的政 策预期升温，风险偏好有望提振。转债有望获得支撑，届时可更积极把握结构性机会。 过去一周（9月15日-9月19日），A股市场主要指数涨跌互现。 上证指数全周下跌1.30%，沪深300指数下跌0.44%；而深证成指和创业板指则分别上涨1.14%和 2.34%，科创50指数也上涨了1.84%。市场成交活跃度较前一周有所提升，日均成交额约为2.52万亿元，周四单日成交额一度放大至3.17万亿元，但周五又大幅 缩量至2.35万亿元。从风格看，小盘指数略跑赢大盘指数，成长风格相对占优。行业表现方面，市场整体在美联储降息落地及科技事件催化下呈现结构型行 情，资金从传统金融向科技成长和低位周期类赛道转移。消费者服务、汽车、电子、煤炭、家电行业涨幅居前，芯片、光刻机、人形机器人板块继续受到资金 青睐，有色金属、银行、非银行业跌幅居前。 转债市场整体呈现调整态势，中证转债指数承压下行，累计下跌1.55%。 转债等权指数下跌1.29%，跌幅大于转债正股等权指数。转债高价低溢价率指数和转 债双低指数跌幅大于转债低价指数，大盘转债跌幅大于中小盘转债。转 ...

报告导读： 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们建议战术性超配港股与美股， 战术性标配美债、黄金与人民币。 美联储进行"预防式"降息有利于美国经济良性运行，并提升全球宏观流动性 ；中美两国元首通话交流则为国际地缘政治冲突设定上限。权益资产中，我们对 受到中国强经济韧性、科技产业趋势与全球宏观流动性改善支持的港股高度乐观。我们对经济尚有韧性、AI产业具有广阔发展空间且受到"预防式"降息改善流 动性的美股相对乐观。债券资产中，我们对美国内生性通胀粘性与实际利率或温和下行背景下的美债相对中性。大宗商品中，我们认为全球宏观流动性改善与 实际利率下降有望支持黄金表现。全球外汇中，我们认为中国经济强韧性以及极端地缘政治冲突风险下降有望支持人民币汇率。 美联储降息或支持港股流动性充裕稳定，我们维持对港股的战术性超配观点。 中国科技突破与新兴产业主题交易热度持续高涨，总量政策预期稳定以及资本 市场制度改革提振市场风险偏好，中国内地无风险利率中枢下行以及海外美联储货币政策趋松调整有利于支持港流动性充裕稳定。中国内地南下资金对港股定 价权的提升亦有利于降低全球复杂宏观环境对港股的扰动。我们认为港股阶段性具备极高的风险回报比 ...

Macro Overview - Overall consumption is improving, with notable increases in automobile retail and high-end liquor prices due to seasonal demand and base effects [4] - Service consumption indicators such as urban population flow and movie box office revenues are also showing improvement, although inter-city migration indices have turned negative year-on-year [4] - Investment in infrastructure is accelerating with special bond issuance, while real estate sales are recovering during the peak season, despite a cooling land market and low construction start data [4] - Production across most industries is declining, with sectors like power generation and steel adjusting due to demand or profit impacts [4] - Inventory levels are primarily focused on replenishment, with industrial prices rising and CPI showing divergence [4] - The dollar index has slightly increased, while the RMB has appreciated moderately [4] Strategy Insights - Market adjustments present opportunities, and the Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trajectory [7] - The "transformation bull market" is driven by the demand for assets and capital market reforms aimed at improving investor returns [7] - Recent communication between Chinese and U.S. leaders indicates a stabilization of short-term risks, while a weak dollar and overseas interest rate cuts favor Chinese monetary easing [7] - The consensus on economic expectations is overly cautious, but there are signs of stabilization in revenue and inventory growth for Chinese listed companies [8] - Emerging industries are entering a new capital expenditure expansion cycle, indicating increased certainty in economic development [9] Industry Comparisons - The technology sector remains a key focus, with recommendations for investments in internet, semiconductor, innovative pharmaceuticals, and robotics [9] - Financial stocks are suggested for gradual allocation due to potential increases in dividend returns after recent adjustments [9] - The shift in economic governance is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics for cyclical goods such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, real estate, and new energy [9] - Recommendations for consumer sectors include national brands in retail and cosmetics, as well as traditional categories like agriculture and food and beverage [9] Thematic Recommendations - Positive outlook on domestic computing power infrastructure and increased penetration of domestic supply chains [10] - Favorable conditions for commercial aerospace investments due to satellite communication license issuance [10] - Anticipation of improved pricing expectations in sectors benefiting from economic governance changes, such as lithium batteries and energy storage [10] - Growth in embodied intelligence with accelerated equity financing in robotics and logistics [10] Hong Kong Dividend Assets - Hong Kong dividend assets are characterized by stable performance and sustainable cash flows, offering higher dividend yields compared to A-shares [15] - The average cash dividend payout ratio for Hong Kong stocks from 2017 to 2024 is 44%, significantly higher than A-shares at 36% [15] - The dividend yield for the Hang Seng Index is 2.9%, compared to 1.9% for the Wind All A Index, indicating a clear advantage for Hong Kong stocks [15] - Hong Kong dividend assets have a lower valuation level, with PE and PB ratios of 7.2x and 0.6x, respectively, compared to 7.9x and 0.8x for the CSI Dividend All Return Index [15] Market Dynamics - Both Hong Kong and A-share dividend assets exhibit defensive characteristics in weak markets, but absolute returns are positively correlated with market performance [16] - Hong Kong dividend assets face higher taxation and are more sensitive to U.S. Treasury yields compared to A-shares [16] - Current market conditions suggest that Hong Kong dividend assets may offer better value for allocation, especially as institutional demand for dividend stocks increases [17] - Long-term trends indicate a strengthening of dividend policies and a low-interest environment, enhancing the appeal of Hong Kong dividend assets for sustained investment [17]

报告导读： 美联储如期降息25BP，其利率预测点阵图显示25年仍有两次降息可能，利好 落地，市场风险偏好提升，金价短期或震荡承压。工业金属方面，随着海外流动性宽松， 国内政策操作空间拓宽，工业品供需边际向好，板块或迎布局时机。 周期研判： 9月美联储降息25BP至4.00%-4.25%之间，其点阵图预测2025年或还有两次降息可能，符合市场预期。叠加近期美经济数据表现尚可，市场对其衰 退担忧有明显缓解。随着市场风险偏好提升，以及部分多头获利了结，金价或震荡承压。工业金属方面，美降息令海外流动性边际宽松的同时，国内政策操作 空间亦有所拓宽，静待宏观利好的持续释放。此外，近期逐步进入传统旺季，双节前备货阶段，铜铝等工业品的加工开工率持续提升，而供给端的扰动频出， 供需边际走强，板块或迎布局时机。 贵金属： 美降息利好兑现，金价震荡承压。 美联储9月议息会议宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25BP到4.00%-4.25%之间，符合市场预期。美联储发布利率 预测点阵图显示2025年预计仍有2次降息，同时上调了对美国经济增速的预期。此外，近期美国零售销售环比超预期上行，9月13日当周初请失业金人数也超预 期下降，市场对美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial system is undergoing a profound restructuring driven by digital technology, with blockchain as a cornerstone, reshaping payment clearing and asset circulation models, and triggering historic changes in monetary sovereignty and cross-border financial infrastructure [2]. Group 1: Blockchain and Financial Infrastructure - The wave of innovation based on blockchain is transitioning from technical experimentation to compliant market practices, with a breakthrough window for the internationalization of the Renminbi in the digital currency era [2]. - The construction of a cross-border trust network using distributed technology is becoming a key variable in the financial competition among major powers [2]. Group 2: Industry Evolution and Challenges - The blockchain industry is moving from the iteration of underlying protocols to a period of commercial ecosystem explosion, with the large-scale implementation of scenarios in securities, trade, and supply chains requiring forward-looking assessments [2]. - The trend of Tokenization is shifting from experimental scenarios on-chain to mainstream financial infrastructure [2]. - There are significant challenges in mapping on-chain rights to traditional legal frameworks, highlighting the urgent need to explore more innovative regulatory paths [2].

Group 1 - The overall consumption is improving, with notable increases in automobile retail and wholesale volumes, as well as high-end liquor prices due to seasonal demand and base effects [1] - Service consumption indicators such as urban population mobility and movie box office revenues are also showing improvement, although the inter-city migration index has turned negative year-on-year [1] - Investment in infrastructure is seeing a rapid issuance of special bonds, while the decline in project contract amounts is narrowing; real estate sales are recovering during the peak season, but the land market is cooling down and construction starts remain low [1] Group 2 - In terms of trade, domestic port freight rates have decreased due to tariff policy disruptions [1] - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with sectors like power generation and steel adjusting due to demand or profit influences [1] - Inventory levels are primarily focused on replenishment, with industrial prices rising and CPI showing a differentiated trend [1] Group 3 - The US dollar index has slightly increased, while the Chinese yuan has appreciated moderately [1]

蔡雯娟 家电首席分析师 行业核心洞察 出海创牌扬帆, 智能进化起航 价值主张 前瞻布局产业发展, 与顶尖公司共成长 点击下方图片 查看电话会回放详细议程 国泰海通证券 | 研究所 717 报告来源 观点来自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告。 报告名称：重回内需视角，兼顾出海发展；报告日期： 20241209；报告作者：蔡雯娟S0880521050002；风险提示：原材料价格波动风险、行业竞争加剧。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 推 荐 阅 读 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 扫码关注 星标不迷路 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活动 | 视听内容 ...

国泰海通证券 | 研究所 价值主张 做务实的增量研究。 年度代表作 、《港股是本轮牛市主战场》 o ... " "1/10. 吴信坤 海外策略首席分析师 行业核心洞察 港股是本轮牛市的主战场 点击下方图片 查看电话会回放详细议程 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险 还请取消关注 请勿订阅 接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息 我们对由此给您造成的 推 荐 阅 读 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 报告来源 观点来自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告。 报告名称：港股是本轮牛市主战场；报告日期： 20250607；报告作者：吴信坤S0880525040061；风险提示：稳增长政策落地进度不及预期，国内经 济修复不及预期。 扫码关注 星标不迷路 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活动 | 视听内容 ...

国泰海通证券 | 研究所 盛 开 推 荐 阅 读 纺织服饰首席分析师 行业核心洞察 挖掘品牌细分赛道, 洞察制造产业变局 价值主张 差异化荐股风格,全球化 研究视野 《进步步》儿 梦 的 生 。 点击下方图片 查看电话会回放详细议程 扫码关注 星标不迷路 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活动 | 视听内容 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 报告来源 观点来自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告。 报告名称：挖掘外贸新航道与内需alpha——纺织服装 2025年中期策略；报告日期：20250527；报告作者：盛开 S0880525040044；风险提示：主要经济 体国民经济衰退、零售环境疲软、渠道盈利能力不及预期等。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式 ...