Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors, particularly recommending companies in the home furnishing, new tobacco, light consumer goods, and paper packaging industries [5][23][24][26]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to stabilize with the introduction of consumer subsidies, leading to improved order intake for many companies [5][19]. - New tobacco products, particularly from Smoore International, are anticipated to benefit from market expansion despite tariff challenges [23]. - The paper packaging industry is facing high pulp inventory levels, which may slow down profit recovery, but consolidation efforts are expected to improve competition [24]. - The light consumer goods sector, especially in pet products, is likely to see accelerated domestic brand growth due to increased tariffs on imports [26]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales are improving as consumer subsidies are rolled out, with expectations for further stimulus policies [5][19]. - Companies like Gujia Home and Sophia are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential [5][19]. - Export challenges due to increased tariffs are noted, but companies with strong domestic sales channels are expected to perform well [5][19]. New Tobacco - Smoore International is positioned to adapt to tariff impacts due to its production capabilities in Indonesia [23]. - The electronic cigarette market is expected to maintain consumer demand despite potential price increases from tariffs [23]. - The overall market for compliant brands is projected to expand, providing growth opportunities [23]. Paper Packaging - High pulp inventory levels are suppressing price increases, with a slow recovery in profitability expected [24][25]. - The acquisition of Zhongliang Packaging by Aorijin is expected to enhance competitive dynamics in the industry [24]. - The introduction of new consumer electronics subsidies is anticipated to benefit leading packaging companies [24]. Light Consumer Goods - The pet food market is expected to see a shift towards domestic brands as tariffs on imports increase [26]. - Companies like Guibao Pet are positioned to capture market share due to their competitive pricing and product quality [26]. - The AI glasses segment is highlighted for its growth potential, with recommendations to focus on key supply chain players [26].

证券板块 券商板块 2025 年一季度业绩底部回升趋势明确，有望迎来业绩与估值双提升。从核心业务线来看：1）经纪业务受益 于市场交投回暖，Q1 日均股基成交额达 1.77 万亿元，同比增幅 72.1%，叠加权益类公募新发份额同比翻倍至 1101 亿 份；2）投行业务呈现结构性增长，股权融资中 IPO 规模同比收缩 30%至 165 亿元，再融资规模增长 59%至 1383 亿元， 债券承销规模以 17%的同比增速提升至 3.25 万亿元；3）信用业务维持高景气度，2025 年以来全市场两融余额日均值 达 1.88 万亿元，同比增长 21%。在 2024 年同期低基数效应与当前市场环境改善的双重驱动下，预计券商板块一季度 业绩同比增速有望实现显著跃升，叠加资本市场改革深化带来的估值修复空间，板块配置价值逐步凸显。 投资建议：券商和多元板块建议关注四条主线：（1）四川双马：科技赛道占优+退出渠道改善，业绩弹性可期。公司管 理基金的已投项目——奕斯伟（半导体材料，2024/12/24 状态更新为已问询）、邦德激光（高端装备，2024/1/3 进行 上市辅导备案）、屹唐半导体（2025/3/13 证监会批复注册）、群 ...

Investment Rating - The SW Machinery Equipment Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 9.26%, ranking 2nd among 31 primary industry classifications [15]. Core Insights - The domestic demand for construction machinery continues to recover, with March's average working hours for major products at 90.1 hours, a year-on-year increase of 6.53% [24]. - The report highlights the potential for domestic engineering machinery to enter a recovery phase, driven by demand for small excavators and long-cycle replacement needs [24]. - The report emphasizes the impact of renewed trade tensions, suggesting a focus on self-sufficient investment opportunities in high-end industrial machinery [24]. - The exoskeleton robot industry is accelerating, with a projected market size growth from $900 million in 2022 to $14.67 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 42.2% [24]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Portfolio - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, Liugong, Shantui, Kede CNC, Huazhong CNC, and Zhenjiang [12]. 2. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index fell by 2.51% over the last week, ranking 26th among 31 primary industry classifications [13]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The manufacturing PMI for March was 50.5, indicating steady recovery in manufacturing post-holiday [23]. - Excavator sales in February reached 19,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.8% [36]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a 5.1% year-on-year increase in railway fixed asset investment and a 6.4% increase in passenger volume, indicating a recovery in railway equipment demand [44]. - The report mentions a decline in shipbuilding prices, with the Shanghai 20mm shipbuilding plate price at 3,810 yuan/ton, down 1.8% month-on-month [47]. - Brent crude oil prices have stabilized around $74 per barrel, with OPEC+ members maintaining plans to gradually restore output [52].

美国"对等关税"落地，家电无惧扰动 特朗普宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"，拟对中国再加征 34%。4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关 于 "对等关税"的行政令，1）宣布美国对贸易伙伴加征 10%的"最低基准关税"，预计 4 月 5 日生效，2）并对一些 贸易伙伴征收更高的额外关税，预计 4 月 9 日生效。其中，对中国、欧盟、日本、越南、印度等美国主要贸易国分别 加征 34%、20%、24%、46%、26%，超出市场预期，但对符合美墨加贸易协定的商品免征关税，好于前期预测。 对等关税力度、广度超出预期，针对特定国家的额外关税距离执行尚有一定时间，具体落地时间、实际加征关税幅度 等关键事项仍有博弈空间，后续需观察各国谈判结果。我们认为无需忧虑，我国家电行业依然具有强竞争优势。1） 供应链角度来看，我国家电产能短期难有替代。在三大白电的核心部件压缩机和电机市场中，中国产能份额达 70%以 上。在黑电领域，海信视像与 TCL 电子全球市占率领先，全球 TV 代工前十大厂商均为中国公司。海外供应链体系成 熟度低于我国，短期内美国难以找到替代性产能，预计对中国产能依赖度仍会较高。2）新兴市场已成为我国家 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment trend in the automotive sector, particularly in the fields of intelligent driving and humanoid robots, which are seen as the most significant industrial trends post-electrification [4]. Core Insights - WeRide, in collaboration with Uber and the Dubai Roads and Transport Authority, is set to launch the first robotaxi service in Dubai, marking a significant step in the global commercialization of autonomous driving technology [1][10]. - The implementation of the new Beijing Autonomous Driving Vehicle Regulations allows L4 level vehicles to operate on public roads, paving the way for the commercial application of autonomous driving technology [2][11]. - The report highlights the rapid growth in the intelligent driving sector, with a projected surge in the penetration rate of high-level autonomous driving technologies and robotaxi services, driving demand for high-performance chips, lidar, and optical components [4]. Summary by Sections Intelligent Driving - WeRide partners with Uber and the Dubai Roads and Transport Authority to launch robotaxi services in Dubai, showcasing advancements in autonomous driving technology [1][10]. - The new Beijing regulations support the use of L4 autonomous vehicles for various transportation services, facilitating the commercial application of autonomous driving [2][11]. - Black Sesame Technology reports a 51.8% revenue increase in 2024, achieving profitability with a gross margin rise to 41.1%, indicating successful scaling and cost reduction [3][12]. - The first batch of SenseTime's J6M autonomous driving solutions has been mass-produced, promoting the widespread adoption of intelligent driving features [4][13]. - RoboSense's lidar technology supports the deployment of autonomous vehicles in Dubai, marking a significant milestone in the global expansion of robotaxi services [4][14]. Robotics - Figure has demonstrated significant improvements in robotic hand stability and precision in real-world applications at BMW factories, indicating advancements in industrial automation [2][44]. - Unitree Technology has launched the Unitree Dex5 dexterous hand, featuring 20 degrees of freedom and enhanced capabilities for complex tasks, showcasing progress in robotic manipulation [3][46]. - Pudu Robotics has introduced the world's first commercial humanoid service robot, "Lightning Box Arm," capable of performing complex tasks in various environments [2][31]. - Agility Robotics has secured $400 million in funding, reflecting strong investor interest in humanoid robotics [2][52]. - The report emphasizes the importance of humanoid robots in the AI landscape, with a shift from a few dominant players to a more diversified market in 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative model companies such as iFlytek, AI hardware companies like Yingshi Network and Hongsoft Technology, and AI-related applications that can enhance user engagement and payment rates, recommending companies like Kingsoft Office and Wanjing Technology [2] Core Insights - The AI industry chain is expected to maintain high prosperity, with computing power remaining stable and application growth accelerating. Other sectors like intelligent driving and financial IT are also projected to show steady growth [11][12] - The report highlights the recent advancements in AI products, including the launch of free intelligent products by Zhiyuan and significant funding for OpenAI, which will enhance AI research and infrastructure [4][13] - The impact of the recent tariff policy announced by Trump is expected to have a limited effect on the overall performance of the computing sector, as overseas revenue accounts for only about 10% of demand [11] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Perspective - The report discusses the launch of Zhiyuan's free intelligent product "AutoGLM" and the advancements in AI capabilities by Baidu and OpenAI, emphasizing the competitive landscape and technological advancements in the AI sector [11][13] - It notes that the computing sector's performance is likely to be influenced by domestic demand policies and the ongoing trend of domestic substitution and self-control in technology [11] 2. Subsector Insights - AI Industry Chain: High prosperity maintained, with computing power stable and application growth accelerating [10] - Intelligent Driving: Growth is expected to accelerate, particularly in areas like LiDAR and vehicle-road cloud integration [10] - Financial IT: The sector is experiencing steady growth, supported by high trading volumes and favorable policies [14] - Industrial Software: Anticipated breakthroughs in industrial AI applications, with significant projects underway [15] 3. Market Performance - The computing industry index saw a decline of 1.87% from March 31 to April 4, 2025, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [16] - The report identifies the top-performing companies in the computing sector during this period, highlighting both gains and losses among key players [22] 4. Upcoming Events - The report outlines several upcoming industry events, including technology exchange days and conferences focused on 6G, drones, and machine learning, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related sectors [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with an expectation of an increase exceeding 15% in the next 3-6 months [27] Core Insights - Offline Retail: Yonghui Supermarket is accelerating store renovations and deepening supply chain reforms, with a focus on quality retail to reach more mainstream Chinese families [11][12] - Online Retail: Meituan is implementing a new social security plan and enhancing its membership system, while Kuaishou is advancing AI capabilities in commercial marketing [2][13] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Company Dynamics - Yonghui Supermarket has opened multiple renovated stores across five cities, achieving significant increases in customer traffic, with a focus on quality retail [11] - Meituan has upgraded its membership system to a points-based model, integrating various services, and is initiating a pilot for rider pension insurance [13] - Kuaishou's 2025 Magnetic Conference highlighted significant growth in user engagement and advertising consumption, alongside advancements in AI applications [13] 2. Industry Data Tracking - In March, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com increased by 13.51% year-on-year, with top-performing categories including automotive, pets, home appliances, cosmetics, and maternal and infant products [14] 3. Market Review - During the week of March 31 to April 3, major indices showed declines, with the retail sector experiencing a slight drop of 0.52%, ranking 17th among 31 sectors [19][22] - Notable stock performances included ZTE Commercial, Guofang Group, and Yonghui Supermarket, which saw significant gains, while others like Cross-Border Communication and ST Dongfang faced declines [20][26]

周观点 特朗普政府加征关税或将倒逼中国加速内需扩张。2025 年 4 月 2 日，特朗普政府签署行政令，对中国输美商品加征 34%关税，叠加现有税率后综合税率达 54%，涉及电子、汽车、纺织等关键行业。中国迅速采取反制措施，包括对美 农产品（大豆、玉米）、能源（液化天然气）加征 10%-15%关税，并限制稀土出口，精准打击美国农业州与能源产业。 我们认为，加征关税叠加提振消费政策大力支持下，国内消费需求有望逐步好转，出行旅游、免税、餐饮、人力资 源服务等行业有望直接受益。 蜜雪冰城：24 年报符合预期，Q4 单店增速改善，看好拓店&单店改善持续性。24 全年：收入 248 亿元/+22.3%，归母 净利 44.4 亿元/+41.4%，符合预期；单 Q4 收入 61.7 亿元/+25.7%，归母净利 9.5 亿元/+29.1%。 霸王茶姬：同店&拓店推动快速成长，利润率优于同业。22-24 年营收 4.9/46.4/124.1 亿元、yoy+844%/+167%；净利 润-0.9/8.0/25.1 亿元，净利率-18.5%/17.3%/20.3%，24 年净利率高于蜜雪（18%）。 达势股份：24 年业绩符合预 ...

核心观点 4 月 2 日特朗普宣布将对所有国家征收 10%的"基准关税"，对美国贸易逆差最大的国家征收个性化的更高"对等关 税"，其中中国 34%，柬埔寨 49%，越南 46%，泰国 36%，印尼 32%，印度 26%。其中基准关税将于美东 4 月 5 日凌晨 0 时生效，对等关税将于美东时间 4 月 9 日凌晨 0 时生效。此次加征关税范围和幅度远超市场预期。对于美国加征关 税，我国迅速出台反制措施，4 月 4 日，经国务院批准我国自 2025 年 4 月 10 日 12 时起，对原产于美国的所有进口 商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税。贸易战或将持续升级。 我们认为全球加征关税不影响目前龙头企业在产业链内的优势地位，但是大概率会造成美国零售疲软，影响行业的 景气度。1）此次关税的实施范围仍不确定，且影响范围尚不明朗，川普 4 月 4 日发推称越南希望其被美国征收零关 税，未来会与越南展开洽谈如果能与美国达成某种协议。我们判断美国关税政策仍处于变化期，后续调整可能性较 大，从川普目前表态来看越南最终被加征关税数额或许不会像美方开始所表示的那么多，此事件对于过去已把产业 链转移到越南的制造公司来说 ...

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.03.31-2025.04.04）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2585.26 点(周环比+1.51%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3861.50 （周环比-1.37%），深证综指收于 1992.39.18 点（周环比-1.67%），上证综指收于 3342.01 点（周环比-0.28%），科 创板收于 1018.07 点（周环比-1.11%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑赢上证综指。从一级行业涨跌幅来看，本周排名前三的 为医药生物（周环比+1.20%）、农林牧渔（周环比+1.51%）、食品饮料（周环比+0.07%），农林牧渔（周环比+1.51%） 排名第 2。 生猪养殖： 本周生猪出栏均重为 128.12 公斤/头，生猪均重处于历史同期较高位置，同时本周行业冻品库容率环比+0.55pct 至 14.31%，近期生猪存在增重、二育以及冻品入库等累库行为，累库下生猪价格震荡，行业供给压力持续后移，预计生 猪价格随着供给的增加和库存端的压力释放存在下跌空间。目前关于猪价悲观预期已经在期货端有较为充分的释放， 而年后价格表现强于此前预期使得整体预期略有上修，产能端缓慢的补充状态对2025年猪价 ...