子行业周度核心观点： 光伏&储能：美国对等关税落地进一步释放光储板块贸易政策风险，美国市场壁垒利润长存，国际化布局优势企业迎 抄底良机；光伏玻璃 4 月新单温和涨价 0.5 元/平米，这一涨幅，是驱动头部企业盈利逐渐进入舒适区间、而二三线 企业投产/复产冲动仍被压制的最理想状态。 风电：一季度国内风电核准规模达 30.3GW，同比大幅增长 121%，"驭风行动"、"以大代小"、第三批"沙戈荒"大基 地项目在多个省份得到核准，重申我们对 2026 年陆风需求不会大幅下滑的判断；山东青岛 3GW 深远海项目正式立项、 青州七海风场正式全面施工、阳江三山岛柔直海缆开标，重点项目节点推进加速，持续推荐海风板块。 电网：1）《中国能源报》披露 25 年预计将投产"两交五直"特高压线路，未来几年可能开工"十六交十二直"，"十五 五"期间特高压有望保持高强度投资；2）国网 25 年输变电项目第二次变电设备招标公示，招标物资共 18 个分标， 521 个标包，输变电项目招标稳步推进；3）金盘科技、神马电力披露 2024 年度业绩报告，海外营收/订单高速增长。 新能源车：1）车企发布 3 月销量，零跑、理想表现均强势，比亚迪出 ...

当前成熟微型滚柱丝杠供应商较小，竞争格局较好。公开资料显示，目前上市公司中已经披露布局了手部微型丝杠业 务的包含浙江荣泰和五洲新春。其中浙江荣泰预备收购狄兹精密传动公司（KGG），该公司技术来源于全球微型丝杠龙 头日本 KSS，同时具备大关节丝杠、微型滚珠丝杠（直径 1.8mm 起）和微型滚柱丝杠（直径 4mm 起）的能力，具备多 年微型丝杠能力积累，具备较强先发优势。五洲新春 1H24 财务报告披露公司已经开始布局手部微型丝杠。 底层技术相通，后期具备大关节丝杠能力料将持续布局微型丝杠。微型丝杠当前主流技术方案为车铣磨工艺，当批量 量产时为实现规模降本，有望通过轧制（冷锻）、以车代磨、粉末冶金等方案进行批量降本。其中车铣磨擅长精度但速 度较慢，进口高精度内外螺纹磨床采购设备成本达上千万元/台，因此亟待提升性价比。根据《行星滚柱丝杠滚柱冷 滚压成形机理与实验研究》，轧制丝杠优点在于加工效率是车铣磨效率的近 10 倍，且螺纹的表面光洁度较高，噪声较 小。以车代磨和粉末冶金在精度要求较低的情况下性价比极高。 最终工艺选择主要取决于性价比和机器人所需微型丝杠精度。当前机器人灵巧手尚在优化过程中，若算法能力持续迭 代 ...

我国总体处于净出口状态，海外价格大涨确定性大。对于轻稀土镨钕，进口矿占总供给 22%左右；前文已测算直接出 口占比 18%，但考虑以产成品形态（空调、两轮电动车、新能车等情况）出口情况，我们认为直接+间接出口量或超过 进口量，因此镨钕角度出发，我国处于净出口状态。对于重稀土镝、铽，因缅甸矿扰动持续，导致重稀土亦转向净出 口状态。因而综合评判下来，出口管制将带来海外稀土价格显著上升。 国内价格：原料紧缺有支撑。稀土目前由于国内供改+缅甸局势动荡导致供应停滞，海外原料供应紧缺已经出现，对 内盘价格支撑强（去年 9 月锑出口管制，但由于长协存在进口量于 25 年 2 月才出现显著下滑，锑价于 2 月末恢复上 涨）。国内原矿配额增长预期较为温和，因而国内价格支撑较强。 价格推演：或出现内外同涨。由于出口管制，海外钕铁硼供应收紧，外盘钕铁硼连带稀土价格直接上涨；我国出口或 面临压力，但原料紧缺率先出现，内盘价格有支撑。类比锑，后续出口逐步放行，或出口形态发生转变（直接以产成 品出口），内盘价格亦有望上涨；海外稀土供应链极其脆弱，因而恐慌性备货下"内外同涨"局面有望出现。 缅甸扰动持续。2025 年 1-2 月我国缅甸矿 ...

事件 4 月 4 日，杜邦中国涉嫌违反《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，国家市场监管总局依法对该公司开展立案调查。本文重点梳理 国产替代空间较大的新材料品种。 1、高纯石英砂 高纯度石英材料是半导体芯片制程中的关键耗材，在芯片制造过程的扩散、刻蚀等环节发挥重要作用。据测算，每生产 1 亿美元的电子信息产品，平均就需要消耗价值 50 万美元的高纯石英材料，在 AI、HPC 等趋势下，高纯石英材料的需求趋 势较为乐观。但另一方面，美国矽比科（前身尤尼明）、挪威 TQC 拥有极高市占率，国内龙头石英股份仍处于起步阶段，公 司将持续推动对半导体石英材料终端晶圆制造商及半导体设备商的产品认证和市场推广，培育新增长点。石英股份 2025 年 2 月投资者问答表述"相关客户对我们半导体级高纯石英砂认证已完成，并有一定量的订单"。 2、芳纶及芳纶纸 芳纶是世界三大高性能纤维之一，广泛应用于军事国防、安全防护、航空航天、环保、电子电气材料等领域。1960 年代最 早由美国杜邦公司实现工业化，当前商业化生产主要是间位芳纶（1313）、对位芳纶（1414）。截止 2024 上半年，芳纶全球 产能约 15-17 万吨，需求 12-13 万 ...

行情回顾： ◼ 本周（3.31-4.4）上证综指下跌 0.28%，创业板指下跌 2.95%。公用事业板块上涨 2.96%，煤炭板块上涨 1.35%, 碳中和板块上涨 0.53%，环保板块上涨 0.11%。 每周专题： 行业要闻： 投资建议： ◼ 火电板块：我们建议关注发电资产主要布局在电力供需偏紧、发电侧竞争格局较好地区的火电企业，如皖能电力、 华电国际。水电板块：建议关注水电运营商龙头长江电力。核电板块：建议关注核电龙头企业中国核电。新能源 板块：建议关注新能源运营商龙头龙源电力（H）。 风险提示： 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 ◼ 工业燃料领域用气量在 2023 年天然气消费总量中占比近 42%，在天然气下游消费中占据重要地位。天然气在工 业领域主要用于工业窑炉和工业锅炉，广泛应用于陶瓷、玻璃、钢铁等行业。在该领域，天然气的主要替代能源 为煤炭。9M13，国务院印发《大气污染防治行动计划》，拉开工业领域"煤改气"的序幕。但天然气保障供应能 力的瓶颈和煤气经济性对比致使工业领域"煤改气"的进程反复，但也变相使得工业燃料用能方面具备一定煤气 转换的灵活性。 ◼ 综合《工业窑炉燃料发生炉煤气与天然气的对比分析》 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 3.21 RMB based on a PE of 51x for 2025, which is significantly lower than the average of comparable companies [3]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Baogang Co., is a well-established state-owned enterprise that has diversified into "steel + rare earth resources," controlling significant resources in Baiyun Obo [1][10]. - The rare earth industry is expected to see improved supply and demand dynamics due to regulatory changes and geopolitical factors, which will likely increase prices [1][27]. - The steel business is anticipated to reduce losses and lessen the drag on the rare earth segment, benefiting from industry-wide improvements in profitability [2][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Baogang Co. was established in 1954 and is a leading steel producer in Inner Mongolia, with a production capacity of 17.5 million tons [10][12]. - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the largest shareholder being Baotou Iron and Steel Group, controlled by the Inner Mongolia government [15]. Rare Earth Industry - The implementation of the "Rare Earth Management Regulations" is expected to enhance domestic control over rare earth resources and improve market conditions [27][30]. - Ongoing supply disruptions from Myanmar are likely to elevate prices for rare earth elements, with projections indicating an average price for praseodymium and neodymium oxide to exceed 450,000 RMB per ton by 2025 [1][37]. Rare Earth Business - Baogang Co. possesses substantial rare earth resources, with reserves ranking second globally at approximately 13.82 million tons [17][44]. - The pricing mechanism for rare earth products is linked to market prices, allowing the company to benefit from price increases [46][50]. Steel Business - The company has a diversified steel production capacity, with a self-supply ratio of iron ore close to 40%, and is expected to improve profitability as the steel industry recovers [2][52]. - The steel segment has historically impacted the rare earth business negatively, but improvements in the steel market are projected to enhance overall profitability [2][52]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 65.5 billion, 61.7 billion, and 63.5 billion RMB, with net profits expected to rise significantly by 2026 [3][6].

公募基础设施REITs周报 2025/4/5 2 二级市场价量表现 二级市场估值情况 市场相关性统计 数据来源： Wind，国金证券研究所 4 一级市场跟踪 3 REITs & & REITs REITs REIT s REIT 5.51% REIT 3.93% REIT 3.79% REIT REIT REIT 0.66 0.36 0.26 REIT REIT REIT 44.22% 9.32% 8.04% | 基金代码 | 基金简称 | 行业类型 | 上市日期 发行价(元) | 上市首日回 | 上市以来 | 上市以来成交量 | 本周成交量 | 上周成交量 | | 本周换手率 上周换手率 | | | 本周回报 上周回报 今年以来回报 本周收盘价走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 报 | 回报 | （亿份） | （亿份） | （亿份） | | | | | | | 180101.SZ 508027.SH | 博时蛇口产园REIT 东吴苏园产业REI ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on investment opportunities related to the "Belt and Road Initiative," "Western Development," and the "New Western Land-Sea Corridor" [6][14]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Belt and Road Initiative" and its potential to strengthen investment rhythms, particularly in infrastructure, resource development, and energy sectors [8][12]. - The construction of the Pinglu Canal in Guangxi is highlighted as a key project that will enhance trade routes and support the dual circulation strategy [11]. - The report identifies significant investment opportunities in the western regions of China, particularly in Xinjiang, Tibet, Sichuan, and Guangxi, focusing on coal chemical projects and hydropower infrastructure [12][14]. - The report notes that domestic infrastructure demand is expected to support cement prices, with recent price increases indicating a potential upward trend in profitability [5][13]. Summary by Sections Belt and Road Initiative - Since the proposal of the "Belt and Road Initiative" in 2013, nearly 160 countries have signed agreements, with significant investment flows observed in Africa [2][9]. - Investment focus areas include infrastructure, resource development, and digital economy, with companies like Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing expanding their overseas operations [10][12]. Pinglu Canal and Western Land-Sea Corridor - The Pinglu Canal is projected to be completed by 2026 and is expected to facilitate trade and logistics, enhancing the economic landscape of the Guangxi region [11]. - The North Bay Port is anticipated to benefit from increased capacity and trade routes once the canal is operational [11]. Western Development - Xinjiang's coal chemical industry is projected to attract investments of up to 631.8 billion yuan, with several companies positioned to capitalize on this growth [12][14]. - Infrastructure projects in Tibet and Sichuan are also highlighted, with ongoing investments in hydropower and transportation expected to drive regional development [12][14]. Cement Demand and Pricing - Recent cement price increases in various regions indicate a potential recovery in the market, supported by domestic infrastructure projects [5][13]. - The report suggests that the cement industry may see improved profitability due to effective supply management and increased demand from infrastructure investments [5][13].

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for leading sports brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning, indicating strong operational resilience and growth potential in a challenging retail environment [5][27]. Core Insights - The sports industry demonstrated strong operational resilience in 2024, with major companies like Anta Sports, Li Ning, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees showing varied revenue growth rates of +13.58%, +3.90%, -5.36%, and +19.59% respectively [1][7]. - The report anticipates continued stable growth for leading sports brands in 2025, with projections for Anta's main brand to maintain high single-digit growth and FILA to achieve mid-single-digit growth [13][14]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - Anta Sports and FILA maintained steady operations, with revenue reaching 70.826 billion CNY, while 361 Degrees capitalized on lower-tier markets, achieving a revenue increase of 19.59% to 10.074 billion CNY [1][10]. - Li Ning's revenue remained stable, with a focus on e-commerce and product diversification, leading to a 10.3% increase in online sales [9]. Marketing and Inventory Management - Anta Sports increased its sales expense ratio to 36.21%, reflecting higher investments in new product promotions and channel expansion [2][16]. - Inventory turnover days improved for Xtep International, decreasing by 10 days to 79 days, while 361 Degrees saw an increase in turnover days due to strategic inventory buildup for e-commerce [2][17]. Manufacturing Sector - Major manufacturers like Wah Lee Group and Shenzhou International reported revenue growth of 19.35% and 14.79% respectively, driven by increased demand and efficient operations [3][22]. - The overall profitability of the manufacturing sector improved, with Wah Lee's net profit margin at 15.36% and Shenzhou's gross margin increasing to 28.10% [20][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading sports brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning are well-positioned to outperform the industry due to their operational strengths and market strategies [5][27]. - For the manufacturing sector, Wah Lee Group is recommended as a strong player, with potential for increased market share amid industry consolidation due to external pressures [5][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 28.494 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.34%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.196 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.07% [1] - The decline in toll revenue was attributed to a weak macroeconomic recovery leading to reduced traffic flow, with core asset Jiqing Expressway experiencing a toll revenue drop of 12.1% [1] - The company's gross margin decreased to 26.1%, down 4.32 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in zero-margin PPP construction revenue [2] - The company plans to distribute a stable dividend of 0.42 RMB per share for 2024, maintaining a payout ratio of 63.76% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 8.59 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 22.9%, and a net profit of 680 million RMB, down 4.6% [1] - The company’s investment income reached 1.403 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.33%, with debt investment growing by 29.5% [2] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 3.49 billion RMB, 3.64 billion RMB, and 3.89 billion RMB respectively [4] Revenue and Profitability - The main business revenue for 2024 was 28.494 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 7.34% [8] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 11.22%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s diluted earnings per share for 2024 was 0.659 RMB, with a projected increase to 0.802 RMB by 2027 [8] Market Position - The company has consistently received a "Buy" rating in recent reports, indicating positive market sentiment [10][11] - Historical recommendations show a target price range of 7.44 RMB to 9.02 RMB, reflecting an optimistic outlook for the stock [10]