国泰君安晨报 2025 年 03 月 18 日 国泰君安证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 重点推荐： 1、策略，大国博弈的竞争已从经贸关系转向科技创新，将驱动投资逻辑和估值观念改变。2025 年投资的主战场在科技，中国科技资产迎来价值觉醒。 2、主动配置，调整战术性大类资产配置，上修 A 股至超配，下修原油至低配，维持黄金超配。 3、建筑，推荐低估值高股息央国企：中国交建/中国能建/中国建筑等。 4、建材，将水泥行业的供需收缩比喻成龟兔赛跑，需求只需要弱假设进入跌幅放缓区间，供给 优化的积累有望转化成盈利改善的确定性。 5、易鑫集团，公司是第三方汽车金融的领军者，包括交易平台业务和自营融资两种模式，渠道、 科技、资金三重优势下有望实现高增。 [周津宇 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38674924 邮箱：zhoujinyu011178@gtjas.com 登记编号：S0880516080007 A 股策略专题：《中国科技资产的价值觉醒》2025-03-14 方奕（分析师）021-38031658、田开轩（分析师）021-38038673、苏徽（分析师）021-386764 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.16 2024 年收入稳健增长，至尊浓缩引领行业变革 蓝月亮集团(6993) ——蓝月亮集团更新报告 [Table_Industry] 耐用消费品 毛利率显著提升，推广开支增加拖累净利 2024.03.28 渠道改革成效渐显，有望重回增长轨道 2023.12.03 | 财务摘要（百万港元） | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 7,597 | 7,947 | 7,324 | 8,503 | 9,389 | 10,381 | | (+/-)% | 8.6% | 4.6% | -7.8% | 16.1% | 10.4% | 10.6% | | 毛利润 | 4,439 | 4,595 | 4,540 | 5,187 | 5,727 | 6,332 | | 净利润 | 1,014 | 611 | 325 | -706.6 | 406.0 | 587.7 | | (+/-)% | -22.5% | -39. ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.17 技术积累深厚的中科院环保平台 中科环保(301175) 其他公用事业 [Table_Industry] /公用事业 | [table_Authors] 徐强(分析师) | 邵潇(分析师) | 评级 | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 010-83939805 | 0755-23976520 | 目标价格 | 7.12 | | xuqiang@gtjas.com | shaoxiao@gtjas.com | | | | 登记编号 S0880517040002 | S0880517070004 | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | 5.63 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Invest] 首次覆盖 [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间（元） | 4.20-6.14 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | 8,287 | | 总股本/流通A股（百万股） | 1,472/622 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万股） | 0/0 | [Table ...

策 略 研 究 被动再度买入电子，延续流出主要宽基 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——被动资金流动性周观察 本报告导读： 上周被动资金净流出继续收窄，成交占比下降，两融余额回落。科创 50/科创芯片/ 机器人等 ETF 净流入，沪深 300/上证 50/中证 500 等 ETF 净流出。行业层面，电子 时隔五周大幅净流出后，上周重启净流入且规模居首，此外计算机/机械也获净流入。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.16 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi020833@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan026724@gtjas.com | [Table_Report] 相关报告 外资交易热度抬升，杠杆资金延续流入 2025.03.14 促进企业温室气体信息自愿披露 2025.03.12 沪深 300ETF 延续流出趋势 2025.03.09 银行业保险业绿色金融高质量发展 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Accumulate" with a target price of 13.85 CNY, maintaining the previous rating of "Accumulate" [2][3]. Core Views - The report indicates that Ping An Bank's revenue growth for 2024 is in line with expectations, while the growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders is slightly lower. The asset quality remains stable, and the peak risk pressure in retail has passed. The target price is maintained at 13.85 CNY, with an "Accumulate" rating [3][4]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: 164,699 million CNY - 2024A: 146,695 million CNY (down 8.4%) - 2025E: 140,552 million CNY (down 10.9%) - 2026E: 143,905 million CNY (down 4.2%) - 2027E: 150,694 million CNY (up 2.4%) [5] - **Net Profit (attributable to shareholders)**: - 2023A: 46,455 million CNY - 2024A: 44,508 million CNY (down 4.2%) - 2025E: 44,645 million CNY (up 0.3%) - 2026E: 46,557 million CNY (up 4.3%) - 2027E: 49,408 million CNY (up 6.1%) [5] - **Net Asset Value per Share**: - 2023A: 20.74 CNY - 2024A: 21.89 CNY - 2025E: 23.46 CNY - 2026E: 25.15 CNY - 2027E: 26.97 CNY [5] - **Return on Equity**: - 2023A: 11.4% - 2024A: 10.1% - 2025E: 9.6% - 2026E: 9.3% - 2027E: 9.3% [5] Market Data - **Current Price**: 11.97 CNY - **Market Capitalization**: 232,289 million CNY - **52-week Price Range**: 9.65 - 12.88 CNY [6] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of Q4 is 1.06%, consistent with the three-stage ratio. The attention rate and overdue rate have decreased slightly, indicating a stabilization in asset quality [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][12]. Core Views - The company plans to acquire a controlling stake in Xingxin Aerospace Materials to expand its upstream high-value thermal protection materials business [3][12]. - The acquisition is expected to leverage Xingxin Aerospace's technology and channel advantages, enhancing the company's product offerings in aerospace applications [12]. - The target price has been raised to 14.07 yuan from the previous 11.36 yuan, based on a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 2.6 times for 2025 [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,015 million yuan in 2022 to 5,295 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.6% [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from 87 million yuan in 2023 to 203 million yuan in 2026, with a notable increase of 39.7% in 2025 [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.16 yuan in 2023 to 0.38 yuan in 2026 [5]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is nearing capacity saturation, with ongoing projects in aerospace, mining, and rail transportation cable production entering a ramp-up phase, which is anticipated to boost sales [12]. - The acquisition of Xingxin Aerospace is expected to create synergies in the aerospace and integrated equipment sectors, enhancing the company's competitive position [12]. - The company has a strong order pipeline, with several products already entering national key models, indicating robust future demand [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Increase" for the stock of Hongjing Optoelectronics, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [45]. Core Viewpoints - Hongjing Optoelectronics (301479.SZ) is a leading global supplier of optical lenses and camera modules, with a strong market position in automotive cameras and emerging consumer sectors [3][7]. - The company achieved revenues and net profits of 773 million and 116 million RMB respectively in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 75.24% and 176.24% from 2021 to 2023 [9][13]. - The global optical lens market reached 68.28 billion RMB in 2023, with significant growth driven by advancements in smart vehicles and smart home applications [24][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hongjing Optoelectronics specializes in the research, design, manufacturing, and sales of optical lenses and camera modules, with a focus on automotive and emerging consumer markets [3][7]. - The company has established strong partnerships with major automotive brands and has a notable market share in the global automotive optical lens market, ranking sixth with a 3.70% share [7][30]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 251.72 million RMB in 2021, 446.50 million RMB in 2022, and 773.02 million RMB in 2023, with a projected revenue of 450.25 million RMB for the first half of 2024 [9][13]. - The net profit figures for the same years were 15.26 million RMB, 56.45 million RMB, and 116.43 million RMB, with a forecast of 68.52 million RMB for 2024H1 [9][13]. Market Dynamics - The global optical lens market is expected to grow significantly, driven by the integration of digital technologies such as 5G, AI, and IoT, with a projected CAGR of approximately 18% from 2015 to 2023 [24][25]. - The automotive sector is anticipated to see a surge in demand for optical lenses, with the penetration rate of smart connected systems in vehicles expected to reach 83% by 2025 [25][27]. Competitive Landscape - The report identifies key competitors in the optical lens market, including Sunny Optical Technology, Yutong Optical, and others, highlighting the competitive nature of the industry [31]. - Hongjing Optoelectronics has a competitive edge due to its established relationships with Tier 1 automotive suppliers and its innovative product offerings in the smart home sector [30][31]. IPO and Fundraising - The company plans to issue 15.89 million shares, raising approximately 488 million RMB to enhance production capabilities and R&D efforts [32][33]. - The funds will be allocated to capacity expansion projects, the establishment of a research center, and working capital [33][34].

宏观研究 / 2025.03.17 平稳开局后,关注政策落地与外部风险 -2025年1-2月经济数据点评 本报告导读: 2025年1-2月经济数据整体平稳开局,1-2月月度 GDP 拟合结果为5.3%,消费和投 资均有改善的积极信号。下一阶段将进入两会部署的各项扩内需政策的验证期,二 李度经济内外都面临更大的不确定性,可能小幅走弱但预计不会明显失速。后续终 端服务价格将是判断居民部门预期是否改善的重要标准。 投资要点: 资增速回升的主导因素是土地购置费的回落和竣工回暖,延续了 12月以来土地购置对地产投资的扰动,地产市场的回暖仍需谨慎 判断;广义基建增速提升,延续2024年四季度以来中央主导的水 利投资增速高,而地方主导的交运、公共设施低的特征,表明甚建 投资增量仍主要由中央财政支出支撑;设备购置投资增速延续 12 月的回升趋势,增量两新资金的落地使用将持续支撑投资。 信贷弱并非降息的充分条件 2025.03.16 通胀降温或为暂时,仍需警惕"滞胀交易" 2025.03.13 春节错位并非通胀回落的主因 2025.03.09 关税并非出口回落主因 2025.03.08 "五个统筹"下的七大亮点 2025.03 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 30.80 CNY per share, up from the previous forecast of 28.61 CNY [2][15]. Core Views - The report highlights that active trading in the fourth quarter has driven the company's performance growth, with a continued optimistic outlook for the company's earnings due to high market trading volumes and the integration of AI capabilities to enhance competitiveness [3][15]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 11,081 million CNY, which is expected to increase to 11,604 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth of 4.7%. By 2025, revenue is projected to reach 13,743 million CNY, marking an 18.4% increase [6][16]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 8,193 million CNY, anticipated to rise to 9,610 million CNY in 2024, representing a 17.3% growth. By 2025, net profit is expected to reach 12,213 million CNY, a 27.1% increase [6][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 0.52 CNY in 2023 to 0.61 CNY in 2024, and further to 0.77 CNY in 2025 [6][16]. Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is reported at 385,641 million CNY, with a current share price of 24.43 CNY [7]. - The stock has traded within a range of 9.96 CNY to 30.00 CNY over the past 52 weeks [7]. Investment Drivers - The report identifies active trading in the capital markets and a sustained demand for wealth management among residents as key catalysts for growth [5][15]. - The company’s commission income is expected to increase by 23.07% to 61.13 million CNY in 2024, contributing significantly to revenue growth [15]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the active trading environment will continue to support the company's performance, with daily average stock trading volumes reaching 1.56 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 80% [15]. - The integration of the "Miaoxiang" financial AI model is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge and open up new growth opportunities [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 23.06, while the current price is 16.90 [1][13]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in marine communication, breaking the oligopoly in the industry. The government has included "deep-sea technology" in its development plans, indicating a growing focus on marine economy and technology [2][19]. - The company has a comprehensive product capability across the entire industry chain, which may be undervalued by the market. The marine communication and observation capabilities are expected to benefit from future policy developments [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Marine Economy and Technology - The government report emphasizes the development of the marine economy and the inclusion of "deep-sea technology" in its new industrial policies, highlighting the increasing attention on marine technology [19]. - The company has rapidly enhanced its marine communication deployment, which is crucial for global connectivity, with over 95% of data transmission occurring via marine communication systems [20][21]. 2. Marine Communication Business - The company has established itself as a top-tier integrator in the marine communication sector, having begun self-research on submarine cables in 2009 and integrating downstream operations [48]. - The company has successfully completed the PEACE submarine cable project, which connects Asia, Africa, and Europe, and has begun commercial operations, providing high-quality communication networks [53]. 3. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 47.62 billion in 2023 to 59.22 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from 2.15 billion to 3.73 billion during the same period [12]. - The company has a strong order backlog in marine communication, exceeding 6 billion, indicating robust future revenue potential [34]. 4. Market Position - The company’s subsidiary, Huahai Communication, is ranked among the top four global players in providing submarine cable network solutions, effectively breaking the overseas oligopoly [13][28]. - The company has a significant market share in the domestic marine communication sector, having installed seven submarine systems over the past four years, second only to NEC [32]. 5. Future Outlook - The report anticipates substantial growth in the marine observation sector, driven by government policies and the company’s capabilities in providing comprehensive marine communication solutions [44][45]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing investment in marine observation networks, with a projected total investment of approximately 533 billion for comprehensive coverage along China's coastline [44].