[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息设备/半导体产品与半导体设备 证券研究报告 奥来德（688378）公司研究报告 2025 年 03 月 14 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 13 日收盘价（元）] | 22.69 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 13.16-41.60 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 208/201 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 4723/4566 | | 相关研究 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -47.10% -30.10% -13.10% 3.90% 20.90% 37.90% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 奥来德 海通综指 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅（%） | -9.3 | 15.9 | -5.7 | | 相对涨幅（%） | -9.5 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Group [4][11]. Core Views - JD Group's 4Q24 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, and Non-GAAP net profit of 11.3 billion yuan, up 34.5% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company has initiated a new share repurchase plan allowing for up to 5 billion USD in buybacks over the next 36 months [4]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the "trade-in" program for consumer goods, which is expected to continue into 2025 [4]. Financial Analysis - In 4Q24, JD Group's revenue reached 347 billion yuan, marking a 13.4% year-on-year increase, while Non-GAAP net profit was 11.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 34.5% increase year-on-year [7][10]. - The active user base and shopping frequency continued to grow at double-digit rates, with significant contributions from third-party merchants [7][10]. - Direct sales revenue for 4Q24 was 281 billion yuan, with home appliances and 3C products increasing by 15.8% and fast-moving consumer goods by 11.1% year-on-year [7][10]. - Service revenue for 4Q24 was 66 billion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year, with platform and advertising revenue growing by 12.7% [7][10]. Major Financial Data and Forecast - The projected revenue for JD Group is expected to grow from 1,088 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,467 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [8][14]. - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to increase from 24.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 54.5 billion yuan by 2027, with a significant growth rate of 132.82% in 2024 [8][14]. - The report estimates a reasonable market capitalization range for 2025 between 627.5 billion and 704.1 billion HKD, translating to a target share price of 197 to 221 HKD [11][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company achieved a significant revenue increase of 92% year-on-year, reaching 32.16 billion yuan, and narrowed its net loss to 2.82 billion yuan [7] - The gross margin reached a record high of 13.3% in Q4, driven by product mix optimization, cost management, and increased sales volume [7] - The company is expanding its global presence and has established over 400 sales service points, with plans to increase to 550 by 2025 [7] Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 55.318 billion yuan, 86.536 billion yuan, and 100.033 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 72%, 56%, and 16% [6][10] - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, with estimates of 368 million yuan, and grow to 4.824 billion yuan by 2027 [6][10] - The gross margin is projected to improve to 15.1% by 2027, reflecting ongoing operational efficiencies [6][10] Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a significant absolute increase of 68.4% over the last three months [4] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle increased to approximately 111,000 yuan in Q4, indicating a positive trend in revenue per unit sold [7] Strategic Developments - The company has launched the B10 model, which features advanced driving technology at a competitive price point, receiving strong pre-sale interest [7] - Strategic partnerships, including collaboration with Stellantis, are expected to enhance the company's market position and growth potential [7]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/房地产/房地产 证券研究报告 美凯龙（601828）公司研究报告 2025 年 03 月 14 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 13 日收盘价（元）] | 3.02 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 2.02-4.45 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 4355/3613 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 13151/13151 | | 相关研究 | | 市场表现 Email:gql13820@haitong.com 证书:S0850521050003 分析师:高翩然 Email:gpr14257@haitong.com 证书:S0850522030002 全国家居商场运营龙头，盈利能力有望回升 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： [Table_QuoteInfo] -39.36% -25.36% -11.36% 2.64% 16.64% 30.64% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 美凯龙 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the companies analyzed, including 横店东磁, 新大陆, and 博士眼镜, indicating expected stock performance above the benchmark index [4][23][28]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery and growth potential in various sectors, particularly in the tourism industry in Southeast Asia, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.4% for Vietnam, 13.7% for Malaysia, and 12.1% for Thailand from 2023 to 2028 [8]. - The coal price is expected to stabilize in the short term, with a price range of 720-750 RMB per ton, which may positively impact the power sector [3][12]. - The increasing online booking penetration in Southeast Asia is noted, with countries like Singapore expected to reach a 65% online booking rate by 2024, indicating a shift towards digitalization in the tourism sector [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report indicates that the coal and power sectors are experiencing a short-term stabilization, with expectations of a market improvement from late March to April 2025 [3][12]. - The tourism market in Southeast Asia is projected to grow significantly, with Thailand's tourism revenue contributing 63.9% to its total tourism income in 2023 [7][8]. Company Analysis - 横店东磁 is expected to achieve net profits of 19.23 billion, 22.67 billion, and 28.21 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 5.3%, 17.9%, and 24.5% respectively, supported by a strong performance in its solar and magnetic materials segments [4][17]. - 新大陆 is projected to have revenues of 82.73 billion, 91.03 billion, and 100.38 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with net profits growing at rates of 17.0%, 21.8%, and 17.5% [23]. - 博士眼镜 anticipates net profits of 1.24 billion, 1.52 billion, and 1.72 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with a notable exploration of the smart glasses market [25][28]. Market Trends - The report notes a trend towards digitalization in the tourism sector, with a significant increase in online booking rates across Southeast Asia, indicating a robust growth opportunity for online travel agencies (OTAs) [9][10]. - The competitive landscape in the tourism market is described as fragmented, with major players holding less than 8% market share in most Southeast Asian countries, suggesting opportunities for new entrants [9][10].

[Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 13 日收盘价（元）] | 29.86 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 20.85-57.30 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 211/211 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 6304/6304 | | 市场表现 | | [Table_QuoteInfo] -35.16% -20.16% -5.16% 9.84% 24.84% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 安孚科技 海通综指 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） 9.2 21.3 7.1 相对涨幅（%） 9.0 16.1 9.7 资料来源：海通证券研究所 分析师:杨林 [Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务 证券研究报告 安孚科技（603031）公司研究报告 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | Tel:(021)23183969 | | --- | | Email:yl11036@haitong.com | | 证书:S08 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务/软件 证券研究报告 新大陆（000997）公司跟踪报告 2025 年 03 月 13 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 12日收盘价（元）] | 26.94 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 11.85-26.94 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 1032/1026 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 27804/27650 | | 相关研究 | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《首次回购股份完成，AI 应用落地加速》 2025.02.13 《Q3 利润两位数增长，高分红+回购强势彰显 信心》2024.10.28 《盈利能力改善，海外布局加速》2024.08.31 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -36.84% -21.84% -6.84% 8.16% 23.16% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 新大陆 海通综指 | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The company, MLILY, is a leading manufacturer of memory foam mattresses, focusing on enhancing deep sleep for consumers. It has established a strong presence in over 110 countries, including the US, UK, and Japan, and is recognized for its innovative "zero pressure" mattress concept [8][9] - The company is expected to face short-term challenges but is positioned for recovery and growth in the coming years, with projected revenue growth and profitability improvements starting in 2025 [6][9] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2022 was 8017 million yuan, with a slight decline to 7976 million yuan in 2023. Forecasts indicate a recovery to 8670 million yuan in 2024, 9567 million yuan in 2025, and 10318 million yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 10.3%, and 7.8% respectively [7][11] - Net profit is projected to turn from a loss of 152 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 234 million yuan in 2025 and 282 million yuan in 2026, indicating a significant turnaround [7][11] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 38.9% in 2025 and 2026, with improvements in operational efficiency [7][11] Business Segments - The company operates through three main business segments: 1. **Store Sales**: Expected to generate 2603 million yuan in 2024, with a slight recovery in subsequent years [10][11] 2. **Online Sales**: Anticipated to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 1787 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 2756 million yuan by 2026 [10][11] 3. **Bulk Sales**: Expected to see steady growth, with revenues forecasted at 4080 million yuan in 2024 and continuing to rise [10][11] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned to benefit from the recent US anti-dumping tax rulings, which may enhance its competitive advantage in the US market due to its local manufacturing capabilities [9] - The company is actively upgrading its store formats and expanding its online presence to capture a larger market share and improve customer engagement [10][11] Valuation - The company is valued based on a projected PE ratio of 15 to 18 for 2025, suggesting a reasonable price range of 6.98 to 7.39 yuan per share [8][9]